The 2019 NHL Offseason

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:12 am

Vesey being traded for almost nothing screams Panarin to NYR.

Post by **brian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:13 am

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:11 am Why is it always assumed this is the end all for NHL players but not other sports? Like MLB players don't flock to Tampa to save on state taxes.

NHL players are smarter? Most MLB franchises in income tax-free states are garbage? NHL salaries for elite players about 1/3rd of MLB? Those are all legit reasons.

ETA: I do see the income tax argument come up w/r/t NFL free agency signings so the disparity in average and elite salaries in MLB and NHL seems like the biggest deal. I think for better or worse NHL players have been conditioned whether it is by their agents, the teams in those markets or the media or all of the above to recognize that $8M in Nashville, Vegas or Tampa is like $10M in Canada.

(The fact that a lot of players are Canadian and very familiar with high income tax rates could also be a thing.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:15 am

So Panarin should be demanding whatever the adjusted version of +9% from NYR over Florida.

Post by **brian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:17 am

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:15 am So Panarin should be demanding whatever the adjusted version of +9% from NYR over Florida.

If his agent is smart, he absolutely is.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:59 am

I think that $8 million is going to be an overpay for Duchene.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:03 am

No way Tyler Myers ends up making this deal look good.

Post by **brian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:24 am

Zucc ended up going to Minnesota. Dallas' strategy to corner the market on old guys is interesting.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:28 am

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:59 am I think that $8 million is going to be an overpay for Duchene.

Arbitrary for sure, but one of only 25 guys w/ 40+ ES goals over the last two seasons. But the backside I'm sure will be bad if not bought out.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:40 am

Yes!

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:54 am

So the Rangers now have their best prospect in forever and their best under 30 winger in forever. Interesting.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:11 pm

The Panthers just gave Anton Stralman 3 x 5.5m AAV? I love the guy, but that is fucking bonkers.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:15 pm

I thought Simmonds might end up being the worst contract signed but one year at $5MM is pretty ok.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:45 pm

OOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFFEEEEEEERRRRRRR SSSSSSSHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Post by **brian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:50 pm

Tough pill to swallow maybe, but seems like an easy match for Carolina. Compensation was set so it would "only" be a first, second and third.

ETA: Though it's worth mentioning the Habs structured the deal to make it as difficult as possible for a cash-strapped franchise like Carolina to pay out. $21M in signing bonuses the first 12 months and only $700K in salary. Pretty fucking smart, really. If you're going to do an offer sheet make it hurt like hell for the team to match.

Post by **brian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 pm

Also speaking of tax rates impacting salaries -- some NHL clubs are advocating for an after-tax cap in the next CBA. (From the Athletic, subscription required.)

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:09 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:50 pm Tough pill to swallow maybe, but seems like an easy match for Carolina. Compensation was set so it would "only" be a first, second and third.

ETA: Though it's worth mentioning the Habs structured the deal to make it as difficult as possible for a cash-strapped franchise like Carolina to pay out. $21M in signing bonuses the first 12 months and only $700K in salary. Pretty fucking smart, really. If you're going to do an offer sheet make it hurt like hell for the team to match.

That's a big contract, but for a 21 year-old star on the rise, if you're Carolina you really have to match it, don't you? I guess that explains why Montreal was clearing cap space (or maybe they had thought they would get one of the name UFAs.)

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:23 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:00 pm Also speaking of tax rates impacting salaries -- some NHL clubs are advocating for an after-tax cap in the next CBA. (From the Athletic, subscription required.)

Good article. And, while it looks like an after-tax cap is very unlikely, I could see the the NHL doing something about distribution of revenue, to ease the burden on marquee-but-high-tax teams like Montreal and Toronto.

Having said all that, John Tavares signed with Toronto (with San Jose as bridesmaid), and Erik Karlsson re-upped with the Sharks, so perhaps taxes aren't always a big factor.

Post by **brian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:28 pm

I think it's one of those things that's a factor, but it's probably not impacting competitive balance in any meaningful way.

It helps teams in no tax states sell team-friendly deals to retain current players a little and it helps sell free agents on taking a little bit less sometimes (I think that did play a small role in the Duchesne signing at $8M in Nashville, but saving Nashville or Vegas a $1M a year here and there isn't really affecting anything too much). Maybe it means those teams can get an extra fourth-line guy at $1M a year or something.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:14 pm

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:10 pm

Leafs trade Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a pick to Colorado for Tyson Barrie, Alex Kerfoot and a pick. Big win for Toronto if you ask me. Barrie should have a big year setting up those forwards.

eta: Also worth noting that Barrie will be a UFA after the coming season, and Kerfoot is currently an unsigned RFA, arbitration-eligible.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:15 pm

Avalanche are serious after last seasons run.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:56 am

Brian? Rams fanny?

Post by **brian** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:35 am

Pretty much accurate? It's mostly a contract negotiation ploy though. They want to get Gusev at closer to $2.5 AAV for a couple of years but it they have to pay $4.5 then it would require moving a player they probably want to keep, so in that case maybe worth it to deal him especially if there's a lot of demand and they can get a good return. I'm hoping they trade Reaves to free up the salary for Gusev, but not sure how much demand there is for Reaves.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:13 am

Carolina should have dragged it out all week, but nonetheless:

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:18 am

Not if they know Tampa or Toronto are getting hit next.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:20 am

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:18 am Not if they know Tampa or Toronto are getting hit next.

True. Didn't think about that, but makes sense. Still don't see anyone offering a contract to Marner though when the compensation would be four 1sts.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:22 am

I think there's still value in dictating Toronto's terms. Push Marner to the level right under losing four 1sts if they call you right to the end of his RFA years? They'd pay full market freight without the benefit of any additional control.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:25 am

Looks like that would be four years at $40.6MM total. Cost would be 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd if they don't match. See no downside there.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:29 am

Yeah, that's probably an easy match for Toronto, but it would definitely suck for them to not be able to buy any extra UFA years. Marner would have to be tempted to sign too since he can get another huge contract in what I think would be his age 26 year?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:38 am

Yup. No harm to the offer sheet team, you either get four years or Marner or you hurt Toronto and Marner gets likely around his max possible without losing any UFA.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:42 am

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:38 am Yup. No harm to the offer sheet team, you either get four years or Marner or you hurt Toronto and Marner gets likely around his max possible without losing any UFA.

Sounds good to me. Though, from what I read, Marner may be wanting even more and willing to hold out.

Post by **brian** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:14 pm

Gonna drop some acid and stare at this photo for an hour. brb.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 12:47 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:42 amSounds good to me. Though, from what I read, Marner may be wanting even more and willing to hold out.

I'm not sure he can get any more. Toronto is up against the cap so an offer sheet is his only real leverage. Maybe some team goes to four 1sts but that would be pretty wild.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:06 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 11:25 am Looks like that would be four years at $40.6MM total. Cost would be 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd if they don't match. See no downside there.

Marner would not sign that.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:11 pm

According to Cap Friendly, that would be the 3rd highest cap hit for a wing behind Panarin and Kane and 10th highest overall. I know everyone is doing the whole MARNER IS INSANE WHAT'S HIS DAD THINKING thing, but I imagine they know where their real limits lie. I'd also bet his eventual AAV comes in under that.

Rams Fanny · Post by **Rams Fanny** » Tue Jul 02, 2019 1:17 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:35 am Pretty much accurate? It's mostly a contract negotiation ploy though. They want to get Gusev at closer to $2.5 AAV for a couple of years but it they have to pay $4.5 then it would require moving a player they probably want to keep, so in that case maybe worth it to deal him especially if there's a lot of demand and they can get a good return. I'm hoping they trade Reaves to free up the salary for Gusev, but not sure how much demand there is for Reaves.

I think Brian's in agreement that whomever trades for Reaves would become our "2nd favorite" team. Why can't James Dolan run an NHL franchise?

In strictly hockey terms I'm disappointed they are close to giving Derek Englannd a last $1M contract. He was clearly down a step in the second half of last year. That $1M would help.

As far as Gusev goes, I think GMGM overplayed his hand assuming he would get a favorable discount when they handed him money to come over here at the end of last year. Silly to think Gustev would give up $2M+ for 700k (or whatever it was).

rass · Post by **rass** » Fri Jul 05, 2019 6:39 am

mister d wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:58 pm I have few non-factual sports takes I believe in more strongly than “Kessel would be a universal hero if he were hot”.

He's been beloved (in Pittsburgh at least, though that could absolutely be results biased) because he's not "hot", but that's an interesting thought. Some of the shit he took in BOS and TOR definitely stuck because he looks like he does.

Anyway, I'm a naive fan when it comes to shit like this and sad it couldn't work out. :(

Post by **brian** » Fri Jul 05, 2019 10:49 am

From Wyshynski's weekly ESPN column today in case you wondered why NHL players are possibly swayed by offers from teams in tax-free states:

1. Through 4:51 p.m. on July 1, NHL teams had signed 86 players to 173 contract years and $556,835,000. Meanwhile, in the NBA, the contracts signed by Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and Jimmy Butler totaled $589,000,000, with 16 contract years. Just in case you were wondering how the other half lives.

Post by **brian** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:57 am

Interesting Athletic piece from Luszczyszyn grading each team's contract efficiency based on projected output (GSVA).

The last two teams did not surprise me. The top team did a little, but makes sense I suppose.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:04 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:57 am Interesting Athletic piece from Luszczyszyn grading each team's contract efficiency based on projected output (GSVA).

The last two teams did not surprise me. The top team did a little, but makes sense I suppose.

Yeah that was interesting. But in a salary cap league, cost per win is going to parallel won-loss records to a great extent, so not that many surprises.

Teams that only recently jumped forward in win totals are going to look good here too, because in most cases, they haven't yet had to dole out as many big contracts in recognition of the success.