2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

[Ryan]

Amy : We’re moving on to Nevada :: Chandler : I guess I’m going to Yemen

[Pruitt]

I know this has been discussed before, but the fact that such electorally inconsequential states set the tone for all that is to follow is absolutely ridiculous.

[Rush2112]

I know this has been discussed before, but the fact that such electorally inconsequential states set the tone for all that is to follow is absolutely ridiculous.

True, but they need to be small states otherwise it's just billionaires and establishment candidates that get to run.

It should be somewhere more diverse, but still small in population/size.

[mister d]

Two of the four whitest states. Seems like a problem.

[A_B]

I know this has been discussed before, but the fact that such electorally inconsequential states set the tone for all that is to follow is absolutely ridiculous.

True, but they need to be small states otherwise it's just billionaires and establishment candidates that get to run.

It should be somewhere more diverse, but still small in population/size.

Which is where? I’m not being glib but nearly all of the lower population states are quite homogenous, no? The cities are what make states diverse. So you’re left with Southern states mostly like Alabama and Mississippi. Maybe that would be better but I’m not positive anything short of 2-3 national primary days within a short span would be best.

ETA: maybe a New Mexico?

[Johnnie]

Read somewhere that Illinois is probably the best litmus test. But I haven't checked yet personally. Something about a rural/urban ratio.

[A_B]

Read somewhere that Illinois is probably the best litmus test. But I haven't checked yet personally. Something about a rural/urban ratio.

Well everywhere in Illinois except Chicago hates Chicago so you may be right.

[A_B]

I’m beginning to think there’s only one person who can beat trump and he can’t run again until trump changes the law in three years or so.

[HaulCitgo]

Bloomberg. Don't shoot the messenger.

[A_B]

Bloomberg. Don't shoot the messenger.

We will have to stop and frisk them first.

[mister d]

Is this just his thing?

[degenerasian]

Chevy Chase won NH!

[Johnnie]

538 has Bernie most likely to get the nomination, but in a very close second to him...



Why do I feel like we're trending towards a brokered convention and a Trump reelection in November?

[Ryan]

My very narrow and contorted path to optimism is that Bernie seems to have done worse here than in 2016 (even if you give him the votes of every candidate for whom he's a likely second choice), which can only mean that people hated Hillary just for being Hillary and so if you can just find whatever-thousand of those people in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc (and combine them with people who have finally had it with Trump)...

This will not happen.

[Joe K]

This Tweet belongs in a museum of 21st Century American politics. Billionaire CEO who hangs out with MbS and Ghislaine Maxwell, and whose company helped torpedo the American economy, says Americans shouldn’t support a progressive populist because...PUTIN.

[Nonlinear FC]

Some perhaps obvious points after yesterday's results:

* - Biden needs to win both SC and NV to remain a viable candidate. By all appearances, it sure looks like the black vote is going to push him to a victory in SC. I'm not so sure what's going to happen in NV, but I have a hunch the more Labor-influenced and nuanced electorate is going to prevent that from happening. But it the guys main appeal is moderate voters... That didn't work out for him in either of these primaries. So if his next big appeal is to black and brown voters (his words yesterday, no mine), then he can't afford shaky performances now.

* - We're going to see what Mayor Pete is made of now. It's one thing for the whitest man on the planet to over-perform in the two whitest states in the Union. It's another thing to make SOME kind of headway with black and hispanic voters. What I think will come out of NH are voters in SC and NV that want a moderate candidate trying to line up behind someone that can beat out Biden. Really impossible to say how that's going to shake out. Will Biden's strength as Obama's guy (that's how Biden is positioning himself) be enough to hold off white voters that clearly aren't buying that shit? How does Amy play in either of these primaries? I'm pretty surprised she's finding her footing at this stage, but it goes to show you that leading the polling in October doesn't mean shit once the bullets start flying... To that point...

* - Warren is really going to need a big showing on Super Tuesday to even get to a brokered convention. It's pretty remarkable that someone that was polling so well in the fall is now looking close to a full collapse. I'm still pretty stunned by it, as I think a lot of ppl want progressive policies but are freaked out and turned off by Bernie. I guess I was wrong on that?

[degenerasian]

I think Bernie is going to be squeezed out in the end due to the Democrats not having winner take all primaries. He won't have enough delegates at the convention.

[Nonlinear FC]

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21120061/ ... ie-sanders

I haven't read the whole thing, but Yglesias is usually on point.

People need to let things play out, stop trying to be armchair pundits, and stop freaking out about every twist and turn in the road.

[degenerasian]

Warren staying in hurts Bernie. In most states you dont get any delegates if you don't reach 15%.

So yesterday, of Warren's 10%, a third of it went to progressives (Bernie) and two-thirds of it went to moderates (Pete and Amy). If she dropped out for sure more than a third of her voters would go to Bernie.

[mister d]

Its going to end up being a binary Sanders versus chosen centrist decision in the end no matter what; the longer you can avoid everyone not with Sanders now being a coalition against him the better. Warren serves as an ideological bridge people can slowly cross.

[Nonlinear FC]

https://www.vox.com/2020/2/11/21120061/ ... ie-sanders

I haven't read the whole thing, but Yglesias is usually on point.

People need to let things play out, stop trying to be armchair pundits, and stop freaking out about every twist and turn in the road.

Everyone here should read this piece (and spend a lot less time skimming through Twitter feeds, fwiw). But here's something THIS BOARD should really digest fully:

Lots of moderate Democrats nonetheless find it annoying that Sanders and some of his followers are so committed to painting mainstream Democrats in such dark hues. And it is annoying! But annoying people won’t stop being annoying if he loses the nomination. If anything, they will be more annoying than ever as some refuse to get enthusiastic about the prospect of beating Trump. But if Sanders wins, partisan Democrats who just want to beat Trump will magically stop finding Sanders superfans annoying — the causes will be aligned, and the vast majority of people who want Trump out of the White House can collaborate in peace.

There's a lot of tension on this board, and it boils down to this tight paragraph. A lot of the pro-Bernie people on here spend a lot more energy shitting on FELLOW DEMOCRATS than they do promoting their candidate of choice.

And a lot of those skeptical or worried about Bernie spend WAY TOO MUCH ENERGY worrying and posting about Bernie supporters than is warranted. As Yglesias states: "Stop freaking out."

[HaulCitgo]

Black and brown folks are going to sit this one out. There is nothing here for them. The white liberal elite movement doesn't speak to them and I don't think the policy helps much either. Minimum wage and student loan proposals will have unintended consequences that disproportionately hurt them. If the Democrats freeze out moderates and there is low turnout from brown people there won't be enough votes to beat even a weakened Trump.

All they have to do is run a moderate to stand there in a suit and the electorate can vote in a Trump referendum.

[Nonlinear FC]

Its going to end up being a binary Sanders versus chosen centrist decision in the end no matter what; the longer you can avoid everyone not with Sanders now being a coalition against him the better. Warren serves as an ideological bridge people can slowly cross.

Yeah, agreed.

Another possibly not minor point is that I think Bernie gets the Yang Gang block. May not be a big deal in the next two states, but perhaps on Super Tuesday.

Weird anecdote, while driving around looking at properties last weekend, I saw 4 or 5 Yang signs. Saw a Biden sign. I see Bernie bumper stickers EVERYWHERE which is probably a holdover from 2016, but still...

[A_B]

Weird. I don't see a lot of the Toxic Bernie Broism here. I think most are on board with Blue No Matter Who.

[degenerasian]

Black and brown folks are going to sit this one out. There is nothing here for them. The white liberal elite movement doesn't speak to them and I don't think the policy helps much either. Minimum wage and student loan proposals will have unintended consequences that disproportionately hurt them. If the Democrats freeze out moderates and there is low turnout from brown people there won't be enough votes to beat even a weakened Trump.

All they have to do is run a moderate to stand there in a suit and the electorate can vote in a Trump referendum.

Do you think some of the black vote even goes to Trump? I hear blacks have been doing better in the last 4 years (true or not,
I'm not sure) and if Democrats flat out ignore them or their policies actually hurt them as you said....

It's not like it needs to be a big swing. If the GOP can get even 2% more of the national black vote, that might swing some states.

[mister d]

A lot of the pro-Bernie people on here spend a lot more energy shitting on FELLOW DEMOCRATS than they do promoting their candidate of choice.

I kinda disagree? Supporters of every candidate become are a circular firing squad in primaries; Sanders vs Warren was a real thing, as is Klobuchar vs Pete, Biden vs Pete, etc, but that's expected. What's unique here is the fighting between the Sanders supporters and the DNC, which the party so badly want to frame as Sanders supporters versus "everyone", and that's accepted since they're the ones who get to do the framing. So sure, Sanders versus the DNC as a whole is real, but so is the flipside argument. The party is actively working against their current frontrunner, but the power structure dictates that's just angry shouting from his base.

[Nonlinear FC]

Weird. I don't see a lot of the Toxic Bernie Broism here. I think most are on board with Blue No Matter Who.

It's not toxic, like it is out there in Twitter land, but go back and read some of the stuff said about "establishment" democrats and other areas of debate in recent weeks. It got to the point last week that we had to have a Clarifying Moment where everyone restated they were BNMW.

To be clear, it goes both ways, as there are lots of jabs at Bernie supporters on here, mainly around party loyalty.

[Rex]

I’m beginning to think there’s only one person who can beat trump and he can’t run again until trump changes the law in three years or so.

You just have to have imagination sometimes

[mister d]

"Michael Jordan was voted more popular than LeBron James head to head 57% to 43% but then when we asked "who is your favorite basketball player of all-time" Jordan's share plummeted to a (still first place) 27%. The people truly hate Michael Jordan these days and clearly prefer one of the players with a lower percentage than him."

[GoodKarma]

Why do I feel like we're trending towards a brokered convention and a Trump reelection in November?

This has been my fear since Iowa. Since this primary is essentially boiling down to "how far left should we go" (everything else is just noise) I don't see how anyone backs down. Some back room deals are going to have to be struck. Gonna get worse before it gets better.

[GoodKarma]

Lots of moderate Democrats nonetheless find it annoying that Sanders and some of his followers are so committed to painting mainstream Democrats in such dark hues. And it is annoying! But annoying people won’t stop being annoying if he loses the nomination. If anything, they will be more annoying than ever as some refuse to get enthusiastic about the prospect of beating Trump. But if Sanders wins, partisan Democrats who just want to beat Trump will magically stop finding Sanders superfans annoying — the causes will be aligned, and the vast majority of people who want Trump out of the White House can collaborate in peace.

I read this as: "Vote for Bernie or else". Personally, I don't want to give in to people who throw temper-tantrums when they don't get their way.

[Nonlinear FC]

Lots of moderate Democrats nonetheless find it annoying that Sanders and some of his followers are so committed to painting mainstream Democrats in such dark hues. And it is annoying! But annoying people won’t stop being annoying if he loses the nomination. If anything, they will be more annoying than ever as some refuse to get enthusiastic about the prospect of beating Trump. But if Sanders wins, partisan Democrats who just want to beat Trump will magically stop finding Sanders superfans annoying — the causes will be aligned, and the vast majority of people who want Trump out of the White House can collaborate in peace.

I read this as: "Vote for Bernie or else". Personally, I don't want to give in to people who throw temper-tantrums when they don't get their way.

And that exact issue is addressed in the article.

My approach is to just ignore that shit from various supporters. Getting wrapped up in it just isn't the large point.

[GoodKarma]

Lots of moderate Democrats nonetheless find it annoying that Sanders and some of his followers are so committed to painting mainstream Democrats in such dark hues. And it is annoying! But annoying people won’t stop being annoying if he loses the nomination. If anything, they will be more annoying than ever as some refuse to get enthusiastic about the prospect of beating Trump. But if Sanders wins, partisan Democrats who just want to beat Trump will magically stop finding Sanders superfans annoying — the causes will be aligned, and the vast majority of people who want Trump out of the White House can collaborate in peace.

I read this as: "Vote for Bernie or else". Personally, I don't want to give in to people who throw temper-tantrums when they don't get their way.

And that exact issue is addressed in the article.

My approach is to just ignore that shit from various supporters. Getting wrapped up in it just isn't the large point.

I did read the article...I should clarify the tone of the entire piece is vote for Bernie or else. I agree getting wrapped up in supporter rhetoric is pointless but come November it better work both ways. As Yglesias points out:

It is all well and good to be annoyed by people who will not commit to voting Trump out of office regardless of the identity of the Democratic Party nominee. But if you are a person who worries about electability, which many highly partisan Democrats are, then you are by definition a person who worries about courting the votes of people who will not commit to voting Trump out of office regardless of the identity of the Democratic Party nominee. The fact that Sanders has unusually strong support among people like that is a strength of his campaign, not a weakness.

Whenever I make this point, mainstream Democrats get grouchy and start grumbling about how you don’t negotiate with terrorists or give in to your toddler when he’s throwing a fit.

Those are funny analogies, but any effort to court swing voters has that same basic structure. Party loyalists are asked to make concessions to the views of people who are not loyalists, precisely because the non-loyalists’ irresponsibility and flightiness gives them more objective leverage. But if you pull it off successfully, what party loyalists get in exchange is partisan electoral victories — exactly the thing that, by definition, is most important to party loyalists.

If you’re a loyalist, it’s natural to feel grumpy about the non-loyalists who love Sanders, but if you’re trying to win the election you need to get the votes of non-loyalists. By the same token, if you’re annoyed by Sanders’s Twitter’s attacks on mainstream Democrats, you’ll start finding them a lot less annoying if he gets the nomination and they start directing that energy against Trump and the GOP.

You can't genuinely sit there and say "Dems have to compromise to get the Bernie folks" without saying that the Bernie folks have to compromise if he isn't the best person to beat Trump. Bernie surrogates have been extra-whiny the past two weeks about his media coverage. That playbook sound familiar? I don't see any other Dem nominee doing that anywhere near the extent of the Bernie crowd. I don't think sounding like Trump is 1) the way for a Dem to win and 2) good for the party, the people or the country overall.

Bottom line is I will support Bernie if he is the nominee. Will his people return the favor if he isn't?

[Shirley]

So, it's cool when Hillary Clinton, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, and James Carville go on national news shows and say that Bernie is a do-nothing, unlikeable, Nazi, Castro who can't possibly win a national election. But if Bernie supporters fight back, they are portrayed as an angry mob. I guess it really IS valuable to control most of the national media.

FWIW, I'm not a 100% Bernie supporter (my wife is), but it's hard not to see this shit.

How about somebody notices that despite all of this apparently sanctioned national criticism (and it happened four years ago too), Sanders is kicking ass and gaining steam? It seems like that should be a good thing, right?

[Giff]

So, it's cool when Hillary Clinton, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, and James Carville go on national news shows and say that Bernie is a do-nothing, unlikeable, Nazi, Castro who can't possibly win a national election. But if Bernie supporters fight back, they are portrayed as an angry mob. I guess it really IS valuable to control most of the national media.

FWIW, I'm not a 100% Bernie supporter (my wife is), but it's hard not to see this shit.

How about somebody notices that despite all of this apparently sanctioned national criticism (and it happened four years ago too), Sanders is kicking ass and gaining steam? It seems like that should be a good thing, right?

Well, when it's random supporters of Warren or Biden or whoever that are feeling the wrath of what these pundits say, it's bad. I haven't watched CNN or MSNBC in years and I see this on social media.

I've been listening to a lot of coverage about the recent elections and from what I'm hearing on those is a bunch of people wringing their hands about picking the most electable person because their only objective is to beat Trump. With the turnout yesterday, I'm hopeful that is the course we're on and all this worry now about uniting behind the candidate is hogwash.

I think people should step back and look at the state of the GOP race at this time in 2016. I don't think many argued at the time that the GOP would stand behind Trump like they ultimately did.

[Steve of phpBB]

I think people should step back and look at the state of the GOP race at this time in 2016. I don't think many argued at the time that the GOP would stand behind Trump like they ultimately did.

Yeah, but the GOP is naturally more inclined to line up behind the Leader, especially when the alternative is the Democrats, whom they all loathe more than anything.

If Bernie has a plurality but not a majority when the Convention comes, and he's not the nominee, a measurable number of his supporters will refuse to vote Dem, like they did last time. A fair number of his supporters hate the Democrats almost as much as the Republicans do.

[Joe K]

So, it's cool when Hillary Clinton, Chris Matthews, Chuck Todd, and James Carville go on national news shows and say that Bernie is a do-nothing, unlikeable, Nazi, Castro who can't possibly win a national election. But if Bernie supporters fight back, they are portrayed as an angry mob. I guess it really IS valuable to control most of the national media.

I would add that the frequent criticism of Sanders supporters by establishment Dems is incredibly short-sighted because Sanders is by far the most popular candidate among voters under age 30. The Party should be embracing the younger generation's enthusiasm and political engagement. Instead, the constant whining about "Bernie Bros" runs the the risk of alienating what should be its next generation of leaders.

[Steve of phpBB]

I had an interesting exchange with my sister this morning. She's been a moderate non-deplorable Republican all her life, and we rarely talk politics because she just doesn't like to discuss that kind of thing. This morning she sent me a jokey meme about Bernie, and I responded that, yeah, I hope he isn't the nominee, but if he is, we *all* have to vote for him in November.

I figured I'd have to start ranting about how terrible Trump was, but she told me she and my niece (also pretty conservative) have booked tickets for a "Mayor Pete" town hall in a couple of weeks.

(She also told me, after another exchange about how I'm volunteering for Warren, that she can't pull for Warren.)

Small steps. I don't know if she has ever voted for a Democrat for President. I think she may have even voted for Trump in 2016.

[Johnnie]

The electability argument is amusing to me.

The establishment doesn't choose who's electable, the people do. And until the person is elected, electability is just an abstract thought.

So it's looking at the moment that Bernie is the most electable. But the establishment dictates otherwise, so he we are.

[Nonlinear FC]

If there has ever been a race where the Democrats have an incentive to galvanize around the Leader, this is the year.

I know I've been a voice of optimism on this board since Jan 2017, and it's probably annoying, but I'm not moving from that stance.

I think in 2016 you had ppl that said Fuck It and thought there wouldn't be disastrous ramifications. That fucking ship sank in the harbor for everyone to see.

I think that's where the vast majority of Dem or Dem-leaning people are in 2020. They've seen what saying Fuck It means, and it's a fucking disaster.