2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:11 pm

The Sybian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:55 pm While not the same as voting, Trump's poll numbers went up during the impeachment trial. I think a lot of people uninformed and swing voters believe the Dems had it in for Trump, and seeing the lack of witnesses or first hand evidence (blocked by GOP) as proof that the Dems impeached without sufficient evidence or a case. Trump and the GOP lie, and their lies stick while the facts against Trump never do. I do think Trump and the GOP can level attacks on Biden that are 100% true of Trump, and it will hurt Biden while having no effect on Trump. I think a lot of Republicans who don't like Trump will vote for Trump if they believe Biden is the same as Trump, because if they have to vote between two womanizing old men who allow their lowlife children to profit off their names, they will stick with the Republican, because it's really hard for them to vote against their Party. Is it stupid and a false comparison? Absolutely, but when has logic and sense factor into the average American voter's decisions?

Like George Carlin said, picture the average American and how fucking stupid he is, then realize 50% of Americans are even dumber.

I agree with this and would add that corruption and nepotism is logically going to be more costly for the party that theoretically believes in using the government to help people (Democrats) than it will be for the party that wants to leave everything to the private sector (GOP). If people think that all politicians are corrupt, they're more likely to buy the GOP argument that we should just get out of the way and let corporations run America.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:47 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:11 pm
The Sybian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:55 pm While not the same as voting, Trump's poll numbers went up during the impeachment trial. I think a lot of people uninformed and swing voters believe the Dems had it in for Trump, and seeing the lack of witnesses or first hand evidence (blocked by GOP) as proof that the Dems impeached without sufficient evidence or a case. Trump and the GOP lie, and their lies stick while the facts against Trump never do. I do think Trump and the GOP can level attacks on Biden that are 100% true of Trump, and it will hurt Biden while having no effect on Trump. I think a lot of Republicans who don't like Trump will vote for Trump if they believe Biden is the same as Trump, because if they have to vote between two womanizing old men who allow their lowlife children to profit off their names, they will stick with the Republican, because it's really hard for them to vote against their Party. Is it stupid and a false comparison? Absolutely, but when has logic and sense factor into the average American voter's decisions?

Like George Carlin said, picture the average American and how fucking stupid he is, then realize 50% of Americans are even dumber.
I agree with this and would add that corruption and nepotism is logically going to be more costly for the party that theoretically believes in using the government to help people (Democrats) than it will be for the party that wants to leave everything to the private sector (GOP). If people think that all politicians are corrupt, they're more likely to buy the GOP argument that we should just get out of the way and let corporations run America.

You aren't going to like the second half of my analysis. Despite all that, I think Biden is far more likely to beat Trump than Bernie. While Bernie has a more enthusiastic (putting it kindly) following, I think he scares the shit out of millions of people who want to vote out Trump, but are terrified of a Socialist who wants to take all their money and give it to illegal immigrants, whiny college students and poor people who don't work as hard as them.

OTOH, I think Biden in the spotlight of a nominee with all the attention on him, will implode in spectacular fashion. He has in every nomination process, and he is clearly losing his mental faculties. Very dangerous in a candidate who has always been known to stick his foot in his mouth and women's and young girl's hair in his nose.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:09 pm

The Sybian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:47 pm You aren't going to like the second half of my analysis. Despite all that, I think Biden is far more likely to beat Trump than Bernie. While Bernie has a more enthusiastic (putting it kindly) following, I think he scares the shit out of millions of people who want to vote out Trump, but are terrified of a Socialist who wants to take all their money and give it to illegal immigrants, whiny college students and poor people who don't work as hard as them.

Whatever number of people it is that (A) would otherwise vote Democratic but won't vote Sanders because he'll "take all their money" needs to be weighed against the number of people who (B) either won't vote at all, or would vote for Trump, who will vote for Sanders because they think they will be the beneficiaries of democratic socialism.

I suspect that the vast majority of people who fear that their money will go to "undeserving" people have been loyal GOP voters since Reagan and aren't voting for any Dem. I also suspect that those of us who post on this board are, on average, significantly more affluent than the national average and thus interact with a highly disproportionate number of people who fall into category A as opposed to category B.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:17 pm

Beto too? Dude has made some big promises.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:18 pm

Watching Bernie Bros making the same arguments as Republicans made in defense of Trump re: Hunter Biden is still disgusting no matter how unsurprising it is.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:20 pm

Joe Biden would vote for Bernie Sanders in a heartbeat meanwhile Joe K and mister d are going to be the Swamp poster children of why Trump is re-elected.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:20 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:20 pm Joe Biden would vote for Bernie Sanders in a heartbeat meanwhile Joe K and mister d are going to be the Swamp poster children of why Trump is re-elected.

Pretty sure the blue no matter who thing applies to nearly everyone here.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:22 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:20 pm
Giff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:20 pm Joe Biden would vote for Bernie Sanders in a heartbeat meanwhile Joe K and mister d are going to be the Swamp poster children of why Trump is re-elected.
Pretty sure the blue no matter who thing applies to nearly everyone here.

I disagree. Joe K and mister d bringing up bullshit Hunter Biden corruption shit is exhibit A.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:24 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:18 pm Watching Bernie Bros making the same arguments as Republicans made in defense of Trump re: Hunter Biden is still disgusting no matter how unsurprising it is.

What Hunter Biden did is shady as shit regardless of whether he’s been criticized by bad people. Is it hard for you to grasp the idea that sometimes the people who evil Republicans criticize might actually be bad?

Also, watching Biden Bros make the same arguments as Ronald Reagan, Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell to denegrate politicians who want to help the poor and disenfranchised is still disgusting no matter how unsurprising it is.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:24 pm

Well. If you think it won’t be a huge issue pushed by the GOP ifBiden is the nominee then your bullshit credentials are rock solid too.

Should it matter? Only slightly. But that’s not reality.

(That was for Giff and I forgot to quote. My bad. )

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:32 pm

Shady? Sure. Why it matters against easily the most corrupt presidential family in history is beyond me. Whatever Hunter Biden is guilty of, it’s nothing compared to the grifting the children of our current POTUS has done to this country. Echoing GOP anti-impeachment talking points is a bad look, yo.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:33 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:24 pm Well. If you think it won’t be a huge issue pushed by the GOP ifBiden is the nominee then your bullshit credentials are rock solid too.

Should it matter? Only slightly. But that’s not reality.

(That was for Giff and I forgot to quote. My bad. )

Of course it will. Doesn’t mean “Democrats” have to push it at the same time.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:35 pm

Well I guess I am missing something. I thought it was brought up as a potential problem during the general and not as a reason to not vote Biden at that point. My bad if I misunderstood.

But I do think it’s reasonable took ahead and see what pratfalls potentially await.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:37 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:22 pmI disagree. Joe K and mister d bringing up bullshit Hunter Biden corruption shit is exhibit A.

Jesus fucking Christ, if your goal is to get Trump out of office, you should want an absolutely brutal vetting process ahead of the eventual nomination.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:40 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:35 pm Well I guess I am missing something. I thought it was brought up as a potential problem during the general and not as a reason to not vote Biden. My bad if I misunderstood.

You didn't misunderstand anything. Mr. D, Johnnie and I are all of the view that Biden is a weak general election candidate -- IMO, significantly weaker than Hillary. I never said Trump was better or that anyone should vote for Trump. And it's curious to me why a "Democrats shouldn't criticize Biden family corruption" rule should apply when a "Democrats shouldn't use right-wing talking points against Sanders" rule doesn't. Lots of Republican assholes have used anti-socialism buzzwords to oppose good things, going all the back to FDR and the New Deal (and earlier). So why would it be okay for powerful elected Democrats to do the same, which has been happening nonstop for the past 10 days, but not okay for me, Mr. D and Johnnie -- three random, powerless message board posters -- to make observations about Biden's weaknesses?

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:40 pm

You pushing this narrative helps cement the fact that Republicans can get away with their own corruption while simultaneously using bullshit corruption narratives against Democrats.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:45 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:40 pm You pushing this narrative helps cement the fact that Republicans can get away with their own corruption while simultaneously using bullshit corruption narratives against Democrats.

Because I don't give a fuck about Biden, I give a fuck about not losing and Biden will fucking lose because he's an easy target. Just wait and see how your whiny "nooo but you see he's actually less pervy and his son is less unscrupulous than they are you gotta give us that right???" works out. One of tonight's goddamn motto's was about restoring dignity! Its a fucking softball.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:49 pm

Who is on the fence about trump v Biden who would actually be swayed by that argument instead of “trump actually admitted on tape he sexually assaulted women and has dozens of credible accusations against him and also look at how much money his kids have made since he became president”?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:50 pm

I wish I hadn't used my Jesus fucking Christ already. That's not a pro-Biden argument and I'm not even sure its a defense. What is the fucking point of running him?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:52 pm

I would support Warren. I would support Sherrod Brown if they have to pull someone in. I would have supported Booker. There are lots of Dems I will support even if they're not my top choice. Biden would be a complete nightmare and you're going to hear it now from people trying prevent you from being blindsided by it later.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:54 pm

Biden’s like my 8th choice but I’m not running to the trump playbook to talk shit about him. Him being president in January of 2021 is light years better than trump being president for four more years.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:55 pm

AB, rethinking your post now after reading this Bernie Bro vomit? There is no way you can credibly believe mister d or Joe K will ever support Biden?

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:00 pm

No I actually think you are the one who is off the rails. There is likely no ideal candidate at this point since warren has been disregarded. But I think you are much further in left field than anyone else.

I think 100 percent joe and mister d will pull the Biden lever but I certainly understand the reasoning that he has a lot of problematic issues in a head to head matchup with trump.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:02 pm

Giff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:54 pm Him being president in January of 2021 is light years better than trump being president for four more years.

So is Tim Kaine. So is Mitt Romney. Would you passionately defend either of them as the Dem candidate? And if so, what are you even doing arguing at this stage? Just check out and vote later.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:19 am

Warren would get smoked too. She flip flops.

Sure she is great on policy and started out well, but the last year her campaign has gone off the rails. Now staying in the race and taking SuperPac money has sunk her even more.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:58 am

Yo Giff, I'M VOTING BLUE NO MATTER WHO in November. So if it's Biden, LET'S GO UNCLE JOE. JOEMENTUM. CORN POP IS A BAD DUDE.

Got it? And if it's Bernie, please direct your anger to the Chris Matthews and James Carvilles of the world. I wonder if they'll vote blue no matter who. Or if they'll just make some vague SOCIALISM BAD. SOCIALISM IS THE BOOGEYMAN. I READ ABOUT IT IN A WORLD WAR 2 BOOK. nonsense.

So... ARE YOU OK WITH THAT?

Dealing with you reminds me of the time when Bill Burr was telling Brian Redban that Stitcher hosting podcasts isn't a big deal, it's that they take the content already made, add ads to it, and make money after the fact without sending a cut to podcasters.

Ya just don't fucking get it no matter how many times we say it. The process is fucked. The candidate is weak. You're dealing with a low information voter population (That's not some coded racist term when I use it. The average American is literally a fucking moron.) And those of us who can think critically see where the summer and fall are going.

If you want to say "I think Bernie's socialism stance would drive away more voters than Biden's Ukraine issue" then that's a fair assessment. There's a real discussion of merit there because you're worried about a voting bloc and trying to understand their thoughts.

But to blame me, Joe, and mister d for getting Trump reelected because it's extremely easy for us to turn Biden into a pile of off-putting talking points? GTFOH. Think harder.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:41 am

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:17 pm Beto too? Dude has made some big promises.

Was following the other discussion and didn't initially recognize this.

What a fucking chump. Bet On My Stork, as Kulinski says.

teeteebee · Post by **teeteebee** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:03 am

Can’t stand politics but love watching all this play out. Truly like a movie no one would ever believe is possible “in real life”.

I’m convinced that GWB winning re-election begot us Obama who begot us Trump who will beget us Sanders or whoever is next from that pipeline in four years. Biden doesn’t fit into that progression. No way that guy wins and the establishment dems are nervous as hell. They’re on tilt and the past day proves it. The Sanders Steamroller Stands Tall on Super Tuesday headline writes itself.

Serious question, how do you think the house and senate work with Sanders in office?

Bonus question - circling back on my point above - if the founder of the internet won in 2004, where do you think we are right now?

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:16 am

The wording of this tweet should say "favorably to Joe Biden" and not what it currently says.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:36 am

Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:16 am The wording of this tweet should say "favorably to Joe Biden" and not what it currently says.

So happy for the health insurers guys! Think of all the bad that will happen if the Democrats embrace socialism in the form of M4A...

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:43 am

Apologies that parroting trump and GOP talking points when you have plenty of damn good other reasons to support Bernie over Biden touched a nerve.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:09 am

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:17 am

Giff wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:43 am Apologies that parroting trump and GOP talking points when you have plenty of damn good other reasons to support Bernie over Biden touched a nerve.

Did you ever answer whether you believe the South Africa story?

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:29 am

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:09 pm
The Sybian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:47 pm You aren't going to like the second half of my analysis. Despite all that, I think Biden is far more likely to beat Trump than Bernie. While Bernie has a more enthusiastic (putting it kindly) following, I think he scares the shit out of millions of people who want to vote out Trump, but are terrified of a Socialist who wants to take all their money and give it to illegal immigrants, whiny college students and poor people who don't work as hard as them.
Whatever number of people it is that (A) would otherwise vote Democratic but won't vote Sanders because he'll "take all their money" needs to be weighed against the number of people who (B) either won't vote at all, or would vote for Trump, who will vote for Sanders because they think they will be the beneficiaries of democratic socialism.

I suspect that the vast majority of people who fear that their money will go to "undeserving" people have been loyal GOP voters since Reagan and aren't voting for any Dem. I also suspect that those of us who post on this board are, on average, significantly more affluent than the national average and thus interact with a highly disproportionate number of people who fall into category A as opposed to category B.

No one demographic is more important than the other. That's not what I said before, and I want to state it clearly now. But it is a significant gamble to ignore the sentiment I'm talking about among educated suburban voters. If the suburbs stay home, we're all fucked. And as has been pointed out, relying on large blocks of young voters to carry the day is, um... risky. And you don't win as a Democrat if you don't have major black voter turnout.

It's too early to see how this is going to shake out. We'll learn a bit today. We'll learn even more if Bloomberg gets out.

But this shit is very wobbly right now. Acting like one candidate is a lock to do anything in November is just ignoring way too many warning signs. Which sucks. We should be able to beat Trump with mannequin. But here we are, with two deeply flawed options.. and an annoying spoiler, siphoning off votes and pissing away money better spent on.. beating Trump with a mannequin.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:34 am

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:17 am
Giff wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 7:43 am Apologies that parroting trump and GOP talking points when you have plenty of damn good other reasons to support Bernie over Biden touched a nerve.
Did you ever answer whether you believe the South Africa story?

In the grand scheme of the last 4 years, Biden using arrested over detained isn't even a blip on my radar. Seriously, you have tons of reasons why Biden is a far worse candidate than Sanders where you can just ignore this bullshit about Biden's son or his exaggerated stories.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:38 am

"Ignore his minor flaws to focus on his major flaws" isn't quite where I'd like to be.

Jerloma · Post by **Jerloma** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:38 am

It wasn't only about being detained vs. arrested. That's a semantic error that's forgivable. The real issue is that he wasn't going to see Mandela. He lied about that to pander to black people.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:39 am

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:29 am
Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:09 pm
The Sybian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:47 pm You aren't going to like the second half of my analysis. Despite all that, I think Biden is far more likely to beat Trump than Bernie. While Bernie has a more enthusiastic (putting it kindly) following, I think he scares the shit out of millions of people who want to vote out Trump, but are terrified of a Socialist who wants to take all their money and give it to illegal immigrants, whiny college students and poor people who don't work as hard as them.
Whatever number of people it is that (A) would otherwise vote Democratic but won't vote Sanders because he'll "take all their money" needs to be weighed against the number of people who (B) either won't vote at all, or would vote for Trump, who will vote for Sanders because they think they will be the beneficiaries of democratic socialism.

I suspect that the vast majority of people who fear that their money will go to "undeserving" people have been loyal GOP voters since Reagan and aren't voting for any Dem. I also suspect that those of us who post on this board are, on average, significantly more affluent than the national average and thus interact with a highly disproportionate number of people who fall into category A as opposed to category B.

No one demographic is more important than the other. That's not what I said before, and I want to state it clearly now. But it is a significant gamble to ignore the sentiment I'm talking about among educated suburban voters. If the suburbs stay home, we're all fucked.

Chuck Schumer, July 2016:

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

Maybe he at least got Illinois right?

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:43 am

Again, not saying to ignore one over the other.

The 2018 statewide wins in places like VA... That was mostly suburban backlash to Trump.

Edit. First response was unnecessarily bitchy.

The bottom line for me on this, Bernie and Biden both have a TON of work to do. They have major weaknesses in a general. Debating that particular point is bizarre to me.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:52 am

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:43 am Again, not saying to ignore one over the other.

The 2018 statewide wins in places like VA... That was mostly suburban backlash to Trump.

But, you know, keep pulling quotes from people we don't like to win whatever debate you think we're having.

It has nothing to do with whether we like Schumer. The quote would have no less significance if Obama said it. My point was that the Democratic Party already failed once against Trump, in what should’ve been a much easier election cycle, because of a blinkered focus on suburban voters while offering scraps to the working class.