Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
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Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Trying my hand at some Warren Sharp ish here....going to mess with these as the season goes on as they are kind of barebones right now (for example I want to add a "Trubisky Factor" for good defenses to punish bad QBs, etc.) and see if I can make something passable. Week one was a mix of Neighs and Nays, so tweaks made and here goes nothin:
And thus my smoking wet bets for the week (red means meh, yellow means ok and green means NEIGHHHHH):
And thus my smoking wet bets for the week (red means meh, yellow means ok and green means NEIGHHHHH):
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
On a pure betting line basis the only one I think is really far off this week is Cleveland giving 6 points for some reason to Cincinnati. The Bengals had opportunities in week 1 and Burrow should continue to improve while Cleveland should not be giving 6 points to any team that isn't the Jets.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Grabbing Bengals, Niners, and Pats from there.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
You don't have to spill any secret sauce, but how much are you advantage are you attributing to home-field?
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Haaaa there's no worries about that. I gave each team a value for early and late season advantage but lowered most of them down to near zero to account for the corona season.
HF advantages this week:
Mostly based on travel.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
My interpretation of them, yes. So I docked the Saints WRs a bit this week for example.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
My value column is misleading - that's value OVER the spread. So for example BUF +5.5 means 5.5 on top of the 5.5 pt spread.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Week 1 was hit or miss but it actually did pretty much spit out LAC 16 - CIN 13. Minor victories!
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- A_B
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Short week and Cleveland is the home team right?Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:59 pm On a pure betting line basis the only one I think is really far off this week is Cleveland giving 6 points for some reason to Cincinnati. The Bengals had opportunities in week 1 and Burrow should continue to improve while Cleveland should not be giving 6 points to any team that isn't the Jets.
ETA: I hadn't seen your remarks about HFA.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
I don't see any situation short of the 49ers team bus crashing where they can't cover 7 points over the Jets. The Jets were absolutely atrocious on offense, and now Bell is out for a few weeks, and I don't think the Bills offense is nearly as good as the Jets made them look. The Jets were starting their 5th string ILB, and he went down in the first quarter. They are so pathetic.Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:59 pm On a pure betting line basis the only one I think is really far off this week is Cleveland giving 6 points for some reason to Cincinnati. The Bengals had opportunities in week 1 and Burrow should continue to improve while Cleveland should not be giving 6 points to any team that isn't the Jets.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Gotcha, so subjective values into an objective model. Are you going to track values over the weeks to see how they change and where you hit/missed on your initials?
Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Essentially at this point yes.
I'm planning on it - I save each week for posterity.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Way off, waaaaaaaay off on that Dolphins game.
Try hex #008e97 for Miami aqua.
Try hex #008e97 for Miami aqua.
Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
backdoor cover machine is very good
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Haaa yeah that one should count as a loss
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Don't tell that to my bookie.
Until everything is less insane, I'm mixing weed with wine.
Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Backdoor covers count just as much as a dominating cover.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
You know what I'll take the backdoor thanks.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
So, bet on Cincinnati every week?
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Well, I don't think it's crazy to weigh the possibility of back door covers against big spreads.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
GIven how hard Burrow fights at all times, yup.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Sorry Cleveland’s running’s backs were too good to cover.
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
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Re: Biz Horse Week 2 Projections
Totally agree. Just saying the five minute kill the clock offense didn’t work when you get 15 yards a carry instead of six.tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:57 pmThey were great. A year ago that is a 41-10 bengals loss. A little different with Burrow. He doesn't quit. Unlike a LOT of his teammates.
And again. The bengals offense is not bad. The defense needs is parts back.
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