Election Week 2020

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:40 pm

This is bad real bad. FFS.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:43 pm

The thing is, it’s really not yet? There’s massive uncounted and no metrics on early versus today. It feels bad because they’re all making us feel bad and that was always going to be the plan for tonight. Calling Biden was the only way to lose eyes.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:44 pm

Just switched over to watch Taxi. Nothing gonna happen for awhile. Biden still OK if they count all the votes in MI/WI/PA.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:45 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:43 pm The thing is, it’s really not yet? There’s massive uncounted and no metrics on early versus today. It feels bad because they’re all making us feel bad and that was always going to be the plan for tonight. Calling Biden was the only way to lose eyes.

You may be right but the uncounted percentages Im seeing doesnt look promising. Good news is winning one of arizona/PA might do it but it won't be within the realm of non-dispute.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm

Hope so. Just did a massive purge on my twitter timeline. Muted a fuckton of words. Unfollowed a lot of accounts. If it doesn't have to do with sports or the weather, it got the ziggy.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm

At some point we probably either give up polling and choose to rely on demographic projections or we hold bad polls accountable.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm At some point we probably either give up polling and relying on demographic projections or we hold bad polls accountable.

Just need to stop polling. Altho they won't. It's an industry. And, if you don't poll, can you ever really know about a vote count? Or even if you should question a vote count?

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:49 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm At some point we probably either give up polling and choose to rely on demographic projections or we hold bad polls accountable.

I'm moving to a hobbit hole in new zealand.

rass · Post by **rass** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:52 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:49 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm At some point we probably either give up polling and choose to rely on demographic projections or we hold bad polls accountable.
I'm moving to a hobbit hole in new zealand.

Did you switch to Five Armies, too? Other than Legolas airwalking, not as bad as I had remembered.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:54 pm

phxgators · Post by **phxgators** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:55 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm Hope so. Just did a massive purge on my twitter timeline. Muted a fuckton of words. Unfollowed a lot of accounts. If it doesn't have to do with sports or the weather, it got the ziggy.

Cleared some local stuff out just after Hickenlooper and Buck were named winners. I still have some others I follow, but if Biden can't pull this out I'm tuning everything out for a while.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:58 pm

rass wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:52 pm
A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:49 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:46 pm At some point we probably either give up polling and choose to rely on demographic projections or we hold bad polls accountable.
I'm moving to a hobbit hole in new zealand.
Did you switch to Five Armies, too? Other than Legolas airwalking, not as bad as I had remembered.

I like them all. Just entertain me i guess.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:08 pm

How were the polls so far off in the South Carolina Senate race? For weeks, polls were showing Graham neck and neck with Harrison, and it's looking like Graham is winning by +10.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:15 pm

There’s hot and then there was early 80s Marilu Henner hot.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:22 pm

The Sybian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:08 pm How were the polls so far off in the South Carolina Senate race? For weeks, polls were showing Graham neck and neck with Harrison, and it's looking like Graham is winning by +10.

The entire polling industry needs to be burned to the ground.

What a seriously false sense of reality that shit is.

Make me queasy for the remaining states.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:23 pm

Arizona goes for Biden.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:27 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:23 pm Arizona goes for Biden.

According to Fox anyway, right?

Isn’t Biden also leading in that one district in NE? If those hold, he needs two out of MI/WI/PA.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:28 pm

The Sybian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:08 pm How were the polls so far off in the South Carolina Senate race? For weeks, polls were showing Graham neck and neck with Harrison, and it's looking like Graham is winning by +10.

Obviously we won’t know for a while. Maybe Rs really were afraid to declare for Trump. Or maybe it’s about the weighting.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:29 pm

I don’t think NC is out of play until all votes are counted too.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:29 pm

Mark Kelly really helped Biden in Arizona, wouldn't be shocked to see him take a run in a future Presidential election.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:31 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:27 pm
brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:23 pm Arizona goes for Biden.
According to Fox anyway, right?

Isn’t Biden also leading in that one district in NE? If those hold, he needs two out of MI/WI/PA.

Please god.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:31 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:29 pm I don’t think NC is out of play until all votes are counted too.

FWIW, Roy Cooper (D) won re-election for governor in NC. That’s a good sign.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:35 pm

This isn't getting decided anytime soon. I feel like an idiot deciding to watch this tonight and even following this shit at all for years.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:38 pm

EdRomero wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:35 pm This isn't getting decided anytime soon. I feel like an idiot deciding to watch this tonight and even following this shit at all for years.

Yeah im going to bed. I wont get to sleep but i am going to bed.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:38 pm

I’m giving it until 2:30. Same as last time. I’m not nearly drinking as much since last time.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:42 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:38 pm
EdRomero wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:35 pm This isn't getting decided anytime soon. I feel like an idiot deciding to watch this tonight and even following this shit at all for years.
Yeah im going to bed. I wont get to sleep but i am going to bed.

Yeah that's my plan. Going to bed and not sleeping. Maybe for the rest of the week:

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:43 pm

phxgators wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:46 pm This belongs in another thread, really, but whatever. I haven't really talked about this with many people but I quit drinking almost 4 months ago. It was becoming a problem, more mentally than physically, but still a problem. Tonight is the first night in a while I've wanted to have a drink so bad. So... I'm stress eating leftover Halloween candy instead.

Good on ya. I stopped drinking (mostly) about a month ago, to see if it was causing my reflux issues. And I've been really surprised just how much better, in general, I feel.

I did have a glass of wine with dinner tonight though...but that was because I made a really nice roast chicken, roasted potatoes, and asparagus dinner. It called for a glass of red wine.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:46 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:29 pm Mark Kelly really helped Biden in Arizona, wouldn't be shocked to see him take a run in a future Presidential election.

Disgracing John McCain may have also had something to do with it too.

That set off Arizonans.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:47 pm

Who the hell knows really, but it still looks good in PA and MI for Biden if you assume that the lion's share of early/absentee/mail-in votes were for Biden as was true in other states. If so, as long as all those votes are allowed to be counted that could be the ballgame.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:48 pm

Also, re: NC. The law there allows ballots to be received for several days as long as they're postmarked by today.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:50 pm

This scenario is possible as well and could cause some sleepless nights worrying about Electoral College chicanery if the count is 270-268.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:53 pm

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:50 pm This scenario is possible as well and could cause some sleepless nights worrying about Electoral College chicanery if the count is 270-268.

I was just talking about this with a friend. This scenario would be so 2020 if 269-269 weren't also plausible.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:53 pm

I'm shockingly calm. I was freaking the fuck out in 2016, watching all the polls, obsessively watching all the needles on the NYTimes page, drinking... This year, I know I can't do anything and I have a weird sense of calm. Maybe it's the passing of legalized weed in NJ to numb the pain.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:54 pm

Is there any reason NE-2 isn’t called yet?

bfj · Post by **bfj** » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:56 pm

I’ve put the phone away 3 times and tried for sleep. It ain’t working.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:00 am

So wisc and Michigan would get it done?

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:02 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:00 am So wisc and Michigan would get it done?

And NE-2 since AZ went blue.

ETA

bfj · Post by **bfj** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:02 am

brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:15 pm There’s hot and then there was early 80s Marilu Henner hot.

Post by **brian** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:04 am

I mean, right?

bfj · Post by **bfj** » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:05 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:04 amI mean, right?

No doubt. Loved me some Elaine Nardo.