Election Week 2020

[Steve of phpBB]

Yup. When it comes to voting for president, a shitton of people don't vote based on a candidate's policies.

[GoodKarma]

Echo the LOLs for Democrats learning from this.

25 year old Madison Cawthorn beat a retired colonel. He's wheelchair bound and a breath of fresh air for outreach to young Republicans everywhere. He will immediately become a shining star in the party.

Now look at Democrats with AOC. Democrats prefer John Kasich over a young, intelligent Latina from the Bronx who doesn't take shit from anyone.

He's very high on my list of congressional members who are gonna fuck up in a very public way at some point.

Wait until you get a load of Lauren Boebert who just won CO-3. Grade-A moron and whack job.

[degenerasian]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

[tennbengal]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

[Steve of phpBB]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

[P.D.X.]

Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

por qué?

[brian]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

[Steve of phpBB]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Some are saying that AZ is not in the bag.

[Gunpowder]

My hot takes:
1. The Dems wasting so much money on going after Kentucky and Georgia may also be a case of them spending money poorly. Trump spends so much more on Facebook and I wonder if we're seeing that money spent on tv is becoming a waste.
2. Pollsters are getting bashed for messing it up again, but my conspiracy theory brain remembers that wrong polls may indicate voter fraud -- I remember there was a lot of talk about that in Ohio with Kerry's defeat, but there doesn't seem to be much talk about it now. Trump not wanting people to vote by mail may have been also about him wanting the votes to be processed by favorable machines along with knowing libs are big wusses about Covid.
3. Biden should nominate Hillary as Attorney General.

I saw something on the Twitters about random small counties in Texas having strangely high voter turnouts compared to the last 12+ years or so.

[brian]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Some are saying that AZ is not in the bag.

I don't know that it's "in the bag" but a 100,000 vote lead with 430,000 votes to be counted, most of which (unless I'm mistaken) mail-in votes in Maricopa shouldn't be that bad a situation. At worst, you'd expect those to break about how the rest of the county broke (50-50 ish)

[BSF21]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Those three get us there. NV is scary but hopefully its late absentee?

[tennbengal]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

A lot of uncertainty from Cohn and wasserman from a quick Twitter review of the Arizona situation. If that call ends up being wrong then PA has to come through. Hope what they appear to be communicating on the Arizona front isn’t as veiled bad news as it feels it is to my eye at least.

[tennbengal]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Some are saying that AZ is not in the bag.

I don't know that it's "in the bag" but a 100,000 vote lead with 430,000 votes to be counted, most of which (unless I'm mistaken) mail-in votes in Maricopa shouldn't be that bad a situation. At worst, you'd expect those to break about how the rest of the county broke (50-50 ish)

Thanks. TWILTS. That helps.

[brian]

Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Those three get us there. NV is scary but hopefully its late absentee?

Yeah, from what I've seen in NV, it's a smattering of ballots in the rurals, but most of the uncounted ballots are mail-in from Clark County, including a lot of election day dropoffs. Those at worst should break about 50/50.

[degenerasian]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

[Johnnie]

Let's go!! Cmon Michigan!!

[Joe K]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

[brian]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

House Dems passed a $3 TRILLION stimulus package that the Senate blocked. I think the electorate is just too stupid.

[psunate77]

Watch Arizona

[EnochRoot]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

House Dems passed a $3 TRILLION stimulus package that the Senate blocked. I think the electorate is just too stupid.

It was the DNC's job to run national ads targeting all the stalled legislation on McConnell's desk. You can call the electorate stupid, and you wouldn't be wrong, but a case can also be made they were under-informed.

[Joe K]

The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

House Dems passed a $3 TRILLION stimulus package that the Senate blocked. I think the electorate is just too stupid.

Right and how many non-political junkies are aware of that fact? Was it mentioned in any Biden campaign ads? And the issue also affects state and local government races as well.

ETA: Agree with Romero

[Johnnie]

[psunate77]

Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

[Pruitt]

WTF?

[L-Jam3]

Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

ETA: and they started their fuckery by trying to stop PA's vote. En garde, MotherFuckers.

[Johnnie]

[tennbengal]

Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

ETA: and they started their fuckery by trying to stop PA's vote. En garde, MotherFuckers.

The late mailed votes in 2018 put Sienma (D) over the top to make the senate. They tend to break dem. I am just not sure in this climate.

[Joe K]

Yeah, the minimum wage is a really important issue to tons of voters, particularly in a year where low-income workers have been crushed by the COVID Depression. Obviously Biden is more likely than Trump to sign a law increasing the minimum wage but that just wasn’t part of the messaging. It was all about “soul of the nation” platitudes and appealing to the tiny number of disaffected Republicans.

[psunate77]

Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

Sorry. I was to high. It’s 20-25%

[tennbengal]

At this moment, I am leaning toward JoeK and friends read of the situation. I do wish Dems would stop chasing the mythical bi-partisanship BS. Not gonna happen.

If Biden can hold this, I am going to take comfort in DOJ, and EPA, and dept of Ed etc having adults back in the rooms. At least we have that.

[Nonlinear FC]

CNN just projected MI for Biden.

[Johnnie]

My far too early call: 2022 will be another reckoning for Dems.

[Johnnie]

[Gunpowder]

Yeah, the minimum wage is a really important issue to tons of voters, particularly in a year where low-income workers have been crushed by the COVID Depression. Obviously Biden is more likely than Trump to sign a law increasing the minimum wage but that just wasn’t part of the messaging. It was all about “soul of the nation” platitudes and appealing to the tiny number of disaffected Republicans.

They're still gonna fall for the "socialism!" shit

[psunate77]

[Johnnie]

Really love the "Oh my! ... Anyway..." tone of the dude in purple.

[degenerasian]

Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

Sorry. I was to high. It’s 20-25%

Yeah. So the Fox News Decision desk guy explained why Fox News called AZ for Biden last night and the Trump campaign/republicans still think they can win AZ.

Basically the Republicans think the remaining votes for Arizona will come in 66% for Trump while Fox News data indicates it is at most 54%

[tennbengal]

[brian]

I think Maricopa County is scheduled to dump their data at 7 p.m. tonight. I don't think it will be the final data but it should be determinative of how accurate those estimates might be.

[A_B]

I think Maricopa County is scheduled to dump their data at 7 p.m. tonight. I don't think it will be the final data but it should be determinative of how accurate those estimates might be.

I saw the same thing (9 eastern, you east coast elites!)