Election Day 2022

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 7:49 am

I want two full years of either Castro touring Texas in a big fucking hoodie

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:36 am

This is a good thread

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:39 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 11:36 am This is a good thread

Plus the Dems have a shitload of seats at risk in 2024. And no one knows what’ll happen in 2026. It’s a six-year term FFS.

There can’t really be anyone who thinks the Warnock election doesn’t matter.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 12:03 pm

Also, to help Non-linear with his victory lap, these pundits beyond the swamp skeptics got it hilariously wrong (long list in that Twitter thread)

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:46 pm

Big 98K vote dump in Maricopa just now. Lake got 55% in the governor’s race, putting her 26K behind Hobbs.

It looks like Hobbs can hold on (?).

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:59 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:46 pm Big 98K vote dump in Maricopa just now. Lake got 55% in the governor’s race, putting her 26K behind Hobbs.

It looks like Hobbs can hold on (?).

I watched Garrett Archer's live stream. He's known as the 'Data Guy' in AZ. I've linked to several of his tweets here.

Basically, Lake needs 58% of all outstanding ballots collectively to win. There's ~94k left in Maricopa. So when Pima county and Maricopa drop tomorrow, watch for that number.

Pima (where I live) is very blue. That'll drop at like 6 pm MST. When that isn't 58.5%, adjustments would then necessitate she'll need far more overall from Maricopa. She got 54.5% tonight from Maricopa. If she doesn't get like >60+% from remaining ballots at 8 pm tomorrow, it's over.

Expect a governor call tomorrow evening.

Edit:

Some clarity and some tweets:

Basically, tomorrow might just be a wash because tonight was lower than needed.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:45 pm

Yeah he’s the guy I’ve been following.

Isn’t Apache County heavily blue also, with the Navajo Nation making up a big part of it?

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:50 pm

It might be, but I haven't checked.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:17 pm

Expect a governor call tonight, and 3 years of refusing to acknowledge defeat.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:50 pm

Couple of general thoughts:

* - As predicted, the youth were fucking pissed and they come out in record numbers.

* - While not a blue wave, which in hindsight was just June Me talking, it was a historic (in a good way) hold for the Democrats. Given inflation/gas prices and Biden's approval rating (historically bad)... This was about a clear of a repudiation of Trumpism as you could hope for.

* - While we're waiting on Arizona, and to underscore my last point, I think the fact that just about every Trump-backed candidate lost is important.

* - Also very important: Not a single Election Denier won a significant position. If you're looking for a silver lining for this country, that's a big fat wet fart for Trump and his fucking bullshit.

But, as was mentioned in the Random Politics thread, if the GOP are still gonna be cucks/scared of their own shadow and keep latched to Trump... By all means you fucking morons. Keep sucking that teat. (ew, fucking gross.)

I will say, watching MSNBC today, and the clips of Newt, Coulter and a whole host of other Fox News luminaries telling Trump he needs to move on sure is telling, as are pieces in the WSJ and cover of the NY Post telling Trump to fuck off back to FL. Murdoch was already hinting at this, and now you have the full force of that platform telling him to go away.

What's beautiful is that Trump doesn't give a shit about the GOP (as mentioned elsewhere) and if he wants to take his mouth-breathing hordes over to his side of this ledger, the party is well and truly fucked. Which is awesome.

Pruitt3 · Post by **Pruitt3** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:17 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:50 pm
What's beautiful is that Trump doesn't give a shit about the GOP (as mentioned elsewhere) and if he wants to take his mouth-breathing hordes over to his side of this ledger, the party is well and truly fucked. Which is awesome.

The fantasy is that he decides to start his own party out of spite.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:41 pm

My fantasy is a continued fracturing of the Republican Party and the chaos that ensues. I want them to burn.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:52 pm

that's a classy victory lap, nonlinear. You are a better person than I would have been.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:54 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:52 pm that's a classy victory lap, nonlinear. You are a better person than I would have been.

Yeah, I was going to say that while the Dems will lose the House, NLFC was closer to calling this election than the rest of us, and he deserves to gloat. I was watching election night hoping to read some gloating on here.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:08 pm

The thing is, we all WANT the same outcome from these things. A couple of you guys straight up said, you hoped the more optimistic take was the right one. Never mad at any of you guys, who all had pretty realistic thoughts... Shit is fucking grim to look at, especially when a primary source is Twitter.

Happy to be somewhat correct, doesn't warrant a victory lap or gloating.

TWILTS, baby.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:11 pm

Good post nonlinear. I’m glad you were right!

Jerloma · Post by **Jerloma** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:45 pm

While you all are making concessions, I'm still waiting to hear how right I was about Mike Tomlin, Joe Rogan, and the Pope.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:43 pm

Edit:

Called

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:53 pm

That’s just delightful.

Jerloma · Post by **Jerloma** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:03 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 8:53 pm That’s just delightful.

Yet still terrifying.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:04 pm

Yes it is! So glad I was wrong.

Also:

Johnny Carwash · Post by **Johnny Carwash** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:08 pm

Russia

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:41 pm

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:48 pm

Fuck the Apple News pop up, making me think Kari Lake won!

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Nov 14, 2022 11:16 pm

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:37 am

Trump can run if he wants but the GOP is not letting him anywhere near the nomination. They will basically Bernie Sanders him, while rallying behind someone else.

Trump thinks he's king but he's just a pawn. The GOP used him in 2016 to beat Hillary, they will throw him away in 2024. The money (Murdock) is already talking.

EnochRoot · Post by **EnochRoot** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:43 am

degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:37 am Trump can run if he wants but the GOP is not letting him anywhere near the nomination. They will basically Bernie Sanders him, while rallying behind someone else.

Trump thinks he's king but he's just a pawn. The GOP used him in 2016 to beat Hillary, they will throw him away in 2024. The money (Murdock) is already talking.

It won’t be that easy. And imagine DeSantis attempting to standup to Trump in a debate. Trump will rip his head off and crap down his neck, and then leave the GOP and run as an independent in order to sink his chances vs Biden.

I understand I just engaged a fantasy here…

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:53 am

The thing is, any scenarios that involve Trump announcing a candidacy and then taking his toys and going home are not fantasy. Sometimes you can actually apply Occam's Razor to crazy.

It's not that these are binary, but it is pretty simple. This election was a massive repudiation of Trump. It's undeniable. Yet, he still has something like 25-30 percent of the population locked into a cult-like following. We've covered it non-stop on here for 5-6 years.

There is simply no way to get around this for the GOP. There are probably at least 20 percent that will sit things out if Trump doesn't run, or more accurately gets shut out by the GOP. That might be high, but given the gyrations (gerrymandering, voter suppression) that the GOP has to maintain just to not lose horribly in a year they should've had a red wave... If you chip off something like 10 percent, that's an absolute bloodbath looming.

We had (pretty annoying by the end) endless talks about Bernie, but the bottom line with him: He backed Hillary, strongly and vociferously. Let that sink in when you contrast that with what you KNOW will happen if Trump isn't the nominee.

There are ways they can mitigate this, primarily with Fox hammering on Trump and picking up a new golden child, but... That's asking everyone to get out of the way. This is politics and it's REALLY difficult to get everyone to line up like that.

This isn't going to be pretty.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:03 am

Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:53 amThere are probably at least 20 percent that will sit things out if Trump doesn't run, or more accurately gets shut out by the GOP. That might be high, but given the gyrations (gerrymandering, voter suppression) that the GOP has to maintain just to not lose horribly in a year they should've had a red wave... If you chip off something like 10 percent, that's an absolute bloodbath looming.

I think this is a huge point. Trump's candidacy brought out a lot of crazy right-wingers - and then a lot of moderates and liberals to oppose him. If Trump doesn't run, I think fewer anti-Trumpers will lose interest than pro-Trumpers.

Square Rob · Post by **Square Rob** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:32 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:03 am
Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:53 amThere are probably at least 20 percent that will sit things out if Trump doesn't run, or more accurately gets shut out by the GOP. That might be high, but given the gyrations (gerrymandering, voter suppression) that the GOP has to maintain just to not lose horribly in a year they should've had a red wave... If you chip off something like 10 percent, that's an absolute bloodbath looming.
I think this is a huge point. Trump's candidacy brought out a lot of crazy right-wingers - and then a lot of moderates and liberals to oppose him. If Trump doesn't run, I think fewer anti-Trumpers will lose interest than pro-Trumpers.

I think that’s a misread Steve. A huge part of trumps appeal with his base is that he’s not the gop. I feel the balance in angry voters skews much further to the right. So if they feel he’s been cheated or mistreated by the gop they will be motivated and follow him if he runs, or sit out if he doesn’t. Just look at how hard that group has moved away from the idea of a John McCain, where it was not only acceptable to trash a dead former icon, but almost gospel for them.

For the middle and left leaning voters who only voted to vote against trump, there’s still a pull to vote against people who propped him up. They are now just as sick of people like Cruz etc.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:40 am

Square Rob wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:32 am
Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 9:03 am
Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 8:53 amThere are probably at least 20 percent that will sit things out if Trump doesn't run, or more accurately gets shut out by the GOP. That might be high, but given the gyrations (gerrymandering, voter suppression) that the GOP has to maintain just to not lose horribly in a year they should've had a red wave... If you chip off something like 10 percent, that's an absolute bloodbath looming.
I think this is a huge point. Trump's candidacy brought out a lot of crazy right-wingers - and then a lot of moderates and liberals to oppose him. If Trump doesn't run, I think fewer anti-Trumpers will lose interest than pro-Trumpers.
I think that’s a misread Steve. A huge part of trumps appeal with his base is that he’s not the gop. I feel the balance in angry voters skews much further to the right. So if they feel he’s been cheated or mistreated by the gop they will be motivated and follow him if he runs, or sit out if he doesn’t. Just look at how hard that group has moved away from the idea of a John McCain, where it was not only acceptable to trash a dead former icon, but almost gospel for them.

For the middle and left leaning voters who only voted to vote against trump, there’s still a pull to vote against people who propped him up. They are now just as sick of people like Cruz etc.

Sorry, that’s what I was trying to say.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 10:57 am

The RNC moved out of the building. They still have the offices but no one here and all the "Republican Black American" and Community Center and Herschel stuff is abandoned. But theres still a black man running that needs their help! Hugely important office and theres a black man running. He needs their help now more than ever.

Funny, almost like they didnt really care about him or black people once their guys got in office. Cant believe it.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 11:26 am

Or gentrification???

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:00 pm

https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/chris- ... Ylg2L4RB0Q

They (MAGA idiots) keep talking about a Civil War... Never fight a land war in Asia is what I say in response.

They think the Libtards are the enemy... The call is coming from inside the house!

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:21 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 9:41 pm

Saw an excellent response to this on Twitter:

"When a Cheney shoots a Republican in the face, they don't miss."

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:19 pm

lol...wut

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 4:51 pm

I spent a decent chunk of the last two days watching MSNBC victory lap stuff. Pretty hilarious to have them trot out all of these gloating, smug motherfuckers in the days leading up (Red Wave on a loop) and then to seem them progressively get more fucked up and depressed and then super angry at... Voters.

Now, I temper that gloating with what happened in 2016. The media were a bunch of clowns in the other direction and it was just as embarrassing.

I have said many times on here that I was worried about 2016 leading up. I talked about driving down to Wilmington and all the way down it was a sea of Trump signs, and barely any for Hillary. It was... disconcerting. My wife and I got home on Tuesday and I turned off the TV at 10. Doneski.

But these Fox assholes are just so gross. Love watching guys like Karl Rove suck it live on TV like that.

-=-=-=-=

Fun stat of the day: This is the only time since the 1930s that the party in power didn't lose, and in fact gained, control of state legislatures.

Suck it, fucking morons.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:00 pm

Uhhh you know the Democrats lost right? Joe Biden with all in the middle in 2024. I'd not celebrate so much

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:12 pm

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:00 pm Uhhh you know the Democrats lost right? Joe Biden with all in the middle in 2024. I'd not celebrate so much

I was gonna write a big ole rebuttal, but 1) I just don't feel like retyping a bunch of stuff and there are plenty of places for you to educate yourself on what just happened; and, 2) I don't understand the point you're trying to make with the second sentence.