NFL 2022 week 17 - Wentz the Carr crashes into the Bridge(water)

[Jerloma]

It's so stupid that with 2 weeks left this game means nothing to either of these teams.

If Mike McCarthy is smart, or if he's not being ordered by Jones to play Zeke to justify his contract, he'd stop with this platoon nonsense and realize that the offense is ridiculously better with Pollard at tailback for the playoffs. It's a textbook FWP/Bettis situation. Just use him to take some late hits and reward him with goal line touchdown carries so everyone can be happy.

[Tom 1860]

The titans bringing in Josh Dobbs two days ago and starting him tonight (and next week apparently) is wild. Malik Willis must be a project to end all projects at QB. And, while we are here, really bad planning by the Titans to not have another option at QB this year at back-up if Willis was THIS much of a project...

They had Logan Woodside as the backup/3rd stringer for a few seasons (since 2018 I think), but they lost him from the practice squad to the Atlanta Falcons. If you have watched Malik Willis play this season, you would not find a better use of "dilly-dally" in the English language.

[Brontoburglar]

It's so stupid that with 2 weeks left this game means nothing to either of these teams.

If Mike McCarthy is smart, or if he's not being ordered by Jones to play Zeke to justify his contract, he'd stop with this platoon nonsense and realize that the offense is ridiculously better with Pollard at tailback for the playoffs. It's a textbook FWP/Bettis situation. Just use him to take some late hits and reward him with goal line touchdown carries so everyone can be happy.

Since coming back after missing the Green Bay game, Elliott has 125 touches to Pollard's 107 counting last night and the Eagles game. Subtract those two games (Pollard got 15 touches before he got hurt LW) and Pollard is at 92 touches over five games while Elliott is at 89 ... so they're getting there, bit by bit.

[DSafetyGuy]

It's so stupid that with 2 weeks left this game means nothing to either of these teams.

If Mike McCarthy is smart, or if he's not being ordered by Jones to play Zeke to justify his contract, he'd stop with this platoon nonsense and realize that the offense is ridiculously better with Pollard at tailback for the playoffs. It's a textbook FWP/Bettis situation. Just use him to take some late hits and reward him with goal line touchdown carries so everyone can be happy.

Since coming back after missing the Green Bay game, Elliott has 125 touches to Pollard's 107 counting last night and the Eagles game. Subtract those two games (Pollard got 15 touches before he got hurt LW) and Pollard is at 92 touches over five games while Elliott is at 89 ... so they're getting there, bit by bit.

Everyone acknowledges it's Jones puffing up his "star" player that he signed to a giant contract, yeah (because Jones has always been centered on having "stars" to drive attendance ---> income)?

[DSafetyGuy]

Maybe this means something about the physical nature of this 49er team, or maybe it’s just a random statistical anomaly. Opponents are 0-13 in week after they played S.F.

I'd be curious to see what the stat would be for teams that played other phenomenal defences like the 85 Bears or 00 Ravens.

Teams were 10-5 the week after playing the '85 Bears and 4-10 after the '00 Ravens. I don't know if it's anything more than an anomaly, as a lot of the Ravens' opponents could be explained by six of the ten losses coming from the Bengals (4-12), Browns (3-13), Cardinals (3-13), and Chargers (1-15). For what it's worth, the Bears' opponents included six teams that won at least ten games and only three that finished worse than 7-9.

The Niners this season have faced three teams who currently have a winning record (KC 12-3, LAC 9-6, MIA 8-7). Everyone else in their division is under .500 and they also played the NFC South, who are all under .500, and the Broncos and Bears.

I think it's in very large part schedule luck. The Chargers played the Chiefs a week after SF and lost by three, Miami played the Chargers a week later and lost by six, and the Chiefs had a bye week after playing the Niners.

[Gunpowder]

That level of play is actually a decent descriptor of the level of play you'd get from the currently 31-year-old QB we are discussing! This is a team that would easily be in the playoffs with Carr-level QB play all season.

Derek Carr has one glaring weakness and it's similar to Zach Wilson's. He's gonna be running around and throwing it away and throwing checkdowns and getting booed off of the field in NYJ. That's my prediction at least. The Jets would be in the playoffs with Mike White-level QB-ing - they just had way too much Zach Wilson.

And right on cue this video comes out:

[Gunpowder]

I really am surprised that someone who lived through the Alex Smith Chiefs era would be championing more of that.

[Gunpowder]

It's so stupid that with 2 weeks left this game means nothing to either of these teams.

If Mike McCarthy is smart, or if he's not being ordered by Jones to play Zeke to justify his contract, he'd stop with this platoon nonsense and realize that the offense is ridiculously better with Pollard at tailback for the playoffs. It's a textbook FWP/Bettis situation. Just use him to take some late hits and reward him with goal line touchdown carries so everyone can be happy.

Since coming back after missing the Green Bay game, Elliott has 125 touches to Pollard's 107 counting last night and the Eagles game. Subtract those two games (Pollard got 15 touches before he got hurt LW) and Pollard is at 92 touches over five games while Elliott is at 89 ... so they're getting there, bit by bit.

I drafted Zeke in my fantasy league because I figured they'd stubbornly stick to him, so yeah they have definitely made big strides in that regard this year.

[Johnnie]

[Brontoburglar]

everyone who isn't blinded by orange and blue realizes it makes far less sense to cut Wilson and deal with the dead cap hits and the resulting chaos without the ability to draft a young QB early than it does to keep him on the roster and see what happens, right?

I hope no one spends 15 minutes of their lives on that video. and besides, keeping Russ on the roster in 2023 is twofold. if the situation is still terrible, then Denver could have a top pick in a good QB draft. if it doesn't have an early pick, then things have gotten better.

here's the contract and cut data from spotrac if you're interested in reading it

Russell Wilson’s splashdown in Denver went about as poorly as possible, forcing many to ask the question - what now?

DISCLAIMER: The only correct answer to this question is, hire a new coach, and ride this thing out for a few more years. However, for the sake of answering all of the possible questions - we’ll entertain all options below.

The Basics
Wilson’s contract contains 6 years, $239M remaining. As of today, $67M of that cash is fully guaranteed, with another $40M of bonus proration bringing us to a real-time dead cap total of $107M. Wilson’s cap figure for 2023 is currently set at $22M (less than 10% of a projected $225M league salary cap).

(Again, this is all for hypothetical purposes only. Wilson will 100% be back in Denver next season with hopes that a new coaching staff can be the magic wand to immediately fix everything)

A March 2023 Release
$25M of base salary accelerates, $42M of unexercised option bonus accelerates, $40M of signing bonus proration accelerates.
2023 Dead Cap Hit: $107M ($67M of which is straight cash)

A Post June 1st Release
$25M of base salary accelerates, $22M of future unexercised option bonus accelerates, $60M of bonus proration is split between 2023/2024. They’d still owe him $67M cash, but the 2023 option bonus would have been exercised, allowing it to prorate for cap purposes.
Dead Cap Hits
2023: $61M
2024: $46M

A March 2023 Trade
Denver takes on $40M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $20M option bonus is exercised.

A new (crazy) team would acquire cap hits of:
2023: $12M
2024: $25.4M
2025: $45.4M
2026: $48.4M
2027: $53.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2023: $28M (guaranteed)
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

An Early March 2024 Release
$39M of base salary + $46M of bonus proration.
2024 Dead Cap Hit: $85M ($39M cash)

A Post June 1st Designation Release in 2024
$39M of base salary + $14M of bonus proration in 2024, $32M of 2025 bonus proration.
Dead Cap Hits
2024: $53M ($39M cash)
2025: $32M

A March 2024 Trade
Denver takes on $46M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $22M option bonus is exercised.

A new team would acquire cap hits of:
2024: $21.4M
2025: $41.4M
2026: $44.4M
2027: $49.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

Our Current Stance
This is a non-conversation. It’s possible we get to March 2025, and things are still as bad as they are today, and the Broncos convince the owner to pay him $37M cash to go away - but even then, even three Marches from now, we’re talking about $86.6M of dead cap.

A Post June 1st release in 2025 would mean dead cap hits of $55.4M in 2025, and another $31.2M in 2026.

The cleaner solution - the way this contract was actually meant to exist - is that the Broncos move on after the 2025 season, taking on a $31.2M dead cap hit, saving $27.2M of space, and continuing on with their lives.

If that feels like forever from now - it’s because it is.

[Johnnie]

That's Good Sports is a comedy/parody account first and hard hitting journalism account never.

I don't care whether you watch it or not, but Brandon Perna is funny.

[Brontoburglar]

I wasn't making a remark on what type of account made the video, just that wasn't worth spending 15 minutes to watch a break down of an extreme implausibility for the reasons outlined

[sancarlos]

As the resident Broncos fan around here (along with Bobby P.), all I can say is, I know what Bronto and others are saying about the Wilson situation is correct, and … I’m just a very sad, sad fan.

[Pruitt IV]

As the resident Broncos fan around here (along with Bobby P.), all I can say is, I know what Bronto and others are saying about the Wilson situation is correct, and … I’m just a very sad, sad fan.

Hate to say it, but welcome to Browns town and the world the Bills used to live in.

[degenerasian]

Yeah but football actually was defensive back then. Can't be throwing 3 INTs in a game in today's NFL with all the offensive advantages. Back then you could hit defenseless receivers on slants or take then down by the neck.

Or can you? I feel a disconnect with modern coaches being more willing to go for it on 4th down and less willing to tolerate interceptions. I get why it is bad to throw a pick 6 ball into the flat, but most INTs are just punts of varying length.

That's true but in a more low-scoring game, those INTs/punts of varying lengths would just result in turnovers or punts back. But the way teams move the ball now, those more often turn into points. You want to limit possessions these days, thus going for it on 4th down more. Last week, the Patriots were down 4 and trying to score a TD at the latest possible time (running down clock) to not allow any time for Burrow to have the ball last. They ended up fumbling and losing.

the whole point of playing football has been to limit possessions. it's not a new phenomenon because offenses are better

and regarding the three interceptions in a game thing, there have been 20 such instances in the league this year and the list includes two of the top three MVP candidates at this point. while Carr is one of only two players (Matt Ryan) with two of those games, pretending that his second three-interception game of the season is the reason for his benching is laughable

Giving up possession for field position was a thing once. Punting to the corners out of bounds. Not anymore since teams can go 75+ yards in less than 2 minutes. Thus there's much more gambling on 4th downs. Think about it, with kickers kicking farther and more accurately than ever, you'd think there would be more FGs. There's used to be a no mans land, too far for a FG but too close to punt. That doesn't exist anymore as kickers can make 60 yarders. But FGs aren't enough and teams gamble on 4th down well their kicker's range.

[rass]

Chiefs have won 14 in a row against Denver. Or did I read that wrong?

And don’t tell me to Google it because I just wasted that effort fruitlessly trying to figure out the record for consecutive wins against a single divisional opponent.

[Pruitt IV]

Chiefs have won 14 in a row against Denver. Or did I read that wrong?

And don’t tell me to Google it because I just wasted that effort fruitlessly trying to figure out the record for consecutive wins against a single divisional opponent.

No need to Google - I lived it.

Dolphins beat the Bills 20 straight times in the 70s. I was there when the bills finally ended the streak. Mayhem.

Just looked this part up - Dolphins then went 11-3 over the next 7 years.

so, 31-3 over 17 years.

[The Sybian]

As the resident Broncos fan around here (along with Bobby P.), all I can say is, I know what Bronto and others are saying about the Wilson situation is correct, and … I’m just a very sad, sad fan.

Hate to say it, but welcome to Browns town and the world the Bills used to live in.

I tried to go to Brown Town last night, but the wife shot me down.

[mister d]

So you weren’t in Berkeley Heights?

[Tom 1860]

The Titans currently have $103.5 million invested in players on IR and another $24.8m in dead cap. Only $79.4m of their $210.9m is currently invested in players on their active roster.

[Johnnie]

This is kinda gnarly.

Don't watch if you're skeeved out by a lack of toes on feet. Or just feet. Or a massive scar on the front of the lower leg.

[L-Jam3]

Pork roll vs. Taylor ham in the Shrew League Swamp Bowl.

[rass]

Pork roll va Taylor ham in the Shrew League Swamp Bowl.

I’m a transplant here so I generally stay out of that fight (and had sausage on my sandwich this morning). Good luck.

[A_B]

The Kroger I was in yesterday actually had Taylor pork roll in their deli area.

[degenerasian]

Patriots screwed early. Forward progress stopped? Mostart ran into the pile and lost the ball. Bellichick pissed already.

[L-Jam3]

I’d say I can’t believe they’re going to blow the #1 seed, but I’ve been watching this team for 40 years and nothing can possibly surprise me now.

[rass]

I’d say I can’t believe they’re going to blow the #1 seed, but I’ve been watching this team for 40 years and nothing can possibly surprise me now.

As I’ve seen pointed out, at least the giants have nothing to play for next week?

[sancarlos]

So, NFL Network analyst (and former NFL qb), David Carr was tweeting about his brother Derek and about the Raiders, - specifically their play-calling.
He “liked” my reply in the thread where I opined about Josh McDaniels, “Perfect example of the Peter Principle. Fine as a coordinator, but reached his highest level of incompetence as a head coach.”

[Giff]

NFL QB is quite a stretch there.

[Rex]

That’s Giants Legend David Carr, let’s get the name right.

[mister d]

Go look up his middle name.

[brian]

Anyone pimping Mike White as a legit NFL QB is an idiot.

[Pruitt IV]

Anyone pimping Mike White as a legit NFL QB is an idiot.

Ha!

A sign of just how putrid Zach Wilson is. White sucks - one quality start out of 6 or 7.

As a Bills fan, love to see it.

[Pruitt IV]

This will be the Bears' worst season since 1969.

As long as they have Justin Fields at QB, they will be a joy to bet against.

[Rex]

So that's how the Texans do it...

[rass]

I’m pretty chill these days and even I’m really annoyed by the phantom call that gave Baltimore a crack an extra 4 points at the end of the half.

[Brontoburglar]

This will be the Bears' worst season since 1969.

As long as they have Justin Fields at QB, they will be a joy to bet against.

are you saying that Fields is the issue with the Bears?

[Brontoburglar]

I’d say I can’t believe they’re going to blow the #1 seed, but I’ve been watching this team for 40 years and nothing can possibly surprise me now.

As I’ve seen pointed out, at least the giants have nothing to play for next week?

I also don't think a team losing two games with its backup QB is really all that bad?

obviously today was a disaster, but it's way, way worse if Hurts is out there

[sancarlos]

I’d say I can’t believe they’re going to blow the #1 seed, but I’ve been watching this team for 40 years and nothing can possibly surprise me now.

As I’ve seen pointed out, at least the giants have nothing to play for next week?

I also don't think a team losing two games with its backup QB is really all that bad?

obviously today was a disaster, but it's way, way worse if Hurts is out there

I think he’s just disappointed they might lose the top seed and bye week.

(Although, I shouldn’t speak for Ljam.)

[Pruitt IV]

This will be the Bears' worst season since 1969.

As long as they have Justin Fields at QB, they will be a joy to bet against.

are you saying that Fields is the issue with the Bears?

No.

But he (in my opinion of course) is not going to be a top-tier NFL QB.