2023 Draft SZN: Early Looks

[Gunpowder]

Yo Brian, I'm starting my 5 minutes per prospect research. Top QBs get like 10 mins.

Nobody played OSU like Michigan's defense did - they are all over these WRs (and seemed to know what was coming - who is their DC?) and getting pressure like Georgia could have only dreamed.

Who other than the freakish DT (who I don't love so far) on this defense should I be paying attention to?


EDIT: Also @ nonlinear and any other Michigan frogs

[mister d]

I had a lot more sports talk radio on this past week and a half than normal, including national, and the only thing I really learned is that I'm excited for Gunpowder + Anthony Richardson.

[Gunpowder]

I had a lot more sports talk radio on this past week and a half than normal, including national, and the only thing I really learned is that I'm excited for Gunpowder + Anthony Richardson.

Yeah he's got his issues but they are as usual being blown way out of proportion, especially compared to Will Levis.

[brian]

Yo Brian, I'm starting my 5 minutes per prospect research. Top QBs get like 10 mins.

Nobody played OSU like Michigan's defense did - they are all over these WRs (and seemed to know what was coming - who is their DC?) and getting pressure like Georgia could have only dreamed.

Who other than the freakish DT (who I don't love so far) on this defense should I be paying attention to?


EDIT: Also @ nonlinear and any other Michigan frogs

I assume you're talking about Mazi Smith and disregard him at your own peril because he seems to play like a beast, but I'll grant you that college production does not always equal pro production, though I think there's a tendency sometimes to overvalue measurables. The teams that seem to consistently draft well put an equal amount of stock in each.

[Gunpowder]

Mazi Smith, yes. Seems like he's always being blocked by one OL with no issues.

[Reaper]

Not trying to call you out on it, but I just assumed you bumped an old thread. It's 2023 now. Still looking forward to McNeigh.

[Gunpowder]

Not trying to call you out on it, but I just assumed you bumped an old thread. It's 2023 now. Still looking forward to McNeigh.

Whoops - good catch

[A_B]

I'll spare you my Will Levis takes because I think they coincide with yours already.

[Gunpowder]

I'll spare you my Will Levis takes because I think they coincide with yours already.

I actually don't hate Levis, I just think he's a bit of a lottery ticket. My early comp is "Boss-mode Jake Locker".

[A_B]

He did look his best with an NFL guy as coordinator, so you may be right. I just don't think he should be any teams savior if that's what they are looking for. I think with a couple of years to learn he might by middle of the pack, but if he gets thrown in to starting right away I don't think he can process things quickly enough.

[sancarlos]

It's an obvious comment, but it's so hard to project/predict quarterbacks. For every Josh Allen (who I thought was nothing but a strong arm), there is a Mitch Trubisky or Josh Rosen. [/captainobvious]

[Brontoburglar]

there are about 5-10 or more failed first-round pick QBs for every Josh Allen. the development strides he has made in the NFL are truly extraordinary

[A_B]

there are about 5-10 or more failed first-round pick QBs for every Josh Allen. the development strides he has made in the NFL are truly extraordinary

Does that mean there's 10-20 right now considering the NFL has two Josh Allens?

[Brontoburglar]

someone has some blue-tinted glasses on!!!!!

[tennbengal]

this seems not great

[Gunpowder]

It's gonna hurt his draft stock for sure (and this guy already screams Albert Haynesworth) but is there really going to be severe criminal punishments for this? I don't think he's going to do any jail time at this point.

[Reaper]

It's gonna hurt his draft stock for sure (and this guy already screams Albert Haynesworth) but is there really going to be severe criminal punishments for this? I don't think he's going to do any jail time at this point.

I don't think he does jail time either. And if I remember correctly, the NFL personal conduct policy wouldn't apply because he wouldn't have been an NFL employee at the time of the incident, so as long as he pleads and/or gets this all taken care of promptly, it shouldn't affect his availability for any OTAs, camps or regular season.

[tennbengal]

[Nonlinear FC]

Yeah, I'm not saying he didn't do something wrong and shouldn't be punished... But it's not like he drove a gun to someone at 1am without asking any questions.

[Gunpowder]

How it started:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect ... 43d4151c0/

Campbell is a sufficient athlete but doesn’t have top-end range. He isn’t likely to consistently perform well if tasked with carrying routes in man coverage. He’s a bit high-hipped, which takes away from his ability to flip his hips, transition, and change directions. Iowa gave him plenty of chances to blitz and shoot gaps but often lacked a plan to beat blocks.

Campell is a smart, instinctive, and physical linebacker with top-end intangibles that gives him the makeup of a starting MIKE at the next level, but there are some minor limitations to be mindful of.

How it's going:




This guy looks a bit like Ryan Shazier, not as fast but he certainly moves really well but just like runs right into blockers and stuff. But he's gotta get the lunchpail treatment.

[govmentchedda]

At some point, Holly and Spencer are going to find out I'm posting these here for free and be mad at me, but here goes. Their write up on the artist formerly known as AR-15.


All of the context you need regarding Anthony Richardson's time at Florida, and its effects, based strictly on rewatching his 2022 season after seeing him go way up and way down in real time as a young starter.

FLORIDA THINGS: PUTTING ANTHONY RICHARDSON’S BRIEF CAREER IN GAINESVILLE IN AS MUCH CONTEXT AS POSSIBLE SO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT

Anthony Richardson started thirteen games at the University of Florida. He started twelve of them in 2022, and one in 2021.

The one game he started in 2021, his first as a starter, came against the University of Georgia’s monstrous 2021 defense. Richardson turned the ball over three times in the last two minutes and forty-five seconds of the first half of that game by the way, meaning a normal person would have committed eleven turnovers in the same span of time. That Georgia team chewed glass and spat bullets. No data can be found there, only bones and the occasional tooth lying on the ground. Erase it, it does no one any good here.

The twelve games he started in 2022, though, show someone learning how to play quarterback on the fly, in real time, in front of a live audience. His first start against Utah?



A QB making ridiculous plays on his own, mostly. His second and third, against Kentucky and South Florida? The technical term for his performance in that game is “total ass.” He was terrible in both, and in entirely different ways. Against Kentucky he melted under blitzes and constant pressure; Against South Florida, he threw picks into obvious easy coverages.

In both games, he struggled to hit open receivers, made bizarre decisions, and was for long stretches of both games something a guy who runs a 4.4 and throws balls over the stadium should not be: Ineffective in all phases of the game, and often at the points in the game when his team needed him most.



But then, after hitting that nadir, this happened.




I can’t plan to make anything easier for you here about picking Anthony Richardson in the NFL Draft. I can say this: After an initial slump where defenses ran him through a full eye chart of defensive looks and pressures, Richardson snapped to form and became a pretty steady quarterback. Not consistently spectacular, mind you, but a generally good QB learning to play within his offense in his first year.

Note: That dip in week 8 is the Georgia game. I’m betting that dip pops up on every other QB’s progress chart for the year, and it’s also labeled “Peak Georgia.”

The context, again, matters so much here when trying to parse out what could be better about Anthony Richardson’s skill set, and what Florida football limited in Anthony Richardson’s production.

The first issue, illustrated here beautifully by one Danny Kelly:



Florida’s receiving corps last year ran off spare parts from Arizona State, and not even the most prized spare parts opting for a Sunshine State transfer (6’7” receiver Johnny Wilson transferred to Tallahassee.) Ricky Pearsall played really well for a slot receiver asked to work as the number one option. He was still very much a slot receiver, though, and none of the rest of Florida’s receivers showed any ability to get open or threaten defenses downfield consistently.

When they were open, they dropped balls. When they weren’t dropping balls, they missed time with injury. The dip in the last two games for Richardson is directly attributable to receivers falling out left and right. By the time the Florida State game came around, the Gators were out five scholarship receivers, and Richardson had to rely on three-star tight end Jonathan Odom as his second option. Odom has seven catches lifetime, and three of them came in the 45-38 loss to the Seminoles to close the season.

The second thing limiting Richardson’s total production in his lone year at Florida: Scheme. Cam Newton, at least by the combine numbers, might seem like a great comparison for Richardson. The difference came in their use and role. In his miraculous 2010 season — the best by any single player in college history for my money in terms of absolute value to his team — Newton ran the ball twenty times a game. He served as a constant play-action threat all by himself, opening up some embarrassingly open pass lanes downfield for Auburn’s less-than-stellar lineup of receivers that year. (All respect to Darvin Adams .)

Richardson had an effective run game to back him up in Gainesville. The Gators averaged 200 yards rushing a game, and gave Richardson plenty of play-action opportunities on paper. (The reality, thanks to the aforementioned talent deficit and injuries, never lived up to that potential.) Richardson played with nagging injuries throughout the year, though, and that matched with his real desire to show his capability as a passer put even more of a brake on his running opportunities.

The counterintuitive thing about Richardson’s 2022 season: Florida’s roster situation, the scheme, and the desire to feature him as a passer limited Richardson’s ability to be featured as a runner. This, ironically enough, may have helped lower his ceiling as a passer by a few points on the margins.

ALL OF THAT SAID PLEASE GIVE ME BULLET POINTS ABOUT WHAT HE DOES WELL AND DOES POORLY, I AM STARVING FOR EASY TALKING POINTS

Fine, here we go.

PROS IN ANTHONY RICHARDSON’S FAVOR AS A POTENTIAL QUARTERBACK, BASED STRICTLY OFF HIS PERFORMANCE IN TWELVE GAMES AT THE COLLEGE LEVEL

Will actually stay in the pocket and look to throw after resetting. He’s not a one read and run college QB, even though there were multiple points this season where maybe that would have been a better call than what he actually did.
Read some meat and potatoes shit really well. Whether it’s levels-type concepts or basic man beaters off pressure, Richardson eventually made those right calls in 2022. Pretty nice off rollout play-action, too, where he will take easy money by hitting tight ends and running backs trailing him in the flat.
Will read checkdowns without pressure. I’m utterly convinced that the key to long-term survival in football involves taking stupid-easy completions whenever possible. Brad Johnson got called “Captain Checkdown” but fourteen years in the league and a ring will get you a comfortable retirement making trick shot videos on TikTok. Richardson will take checkdowns and seems to have no ego about doing so, and Brad Johnson is a god at Pop-A-Shot. Both represent the same goal here.
Accuracy and touch on the deep ball are both nice. Richardson’s coin flip is this: While he might throw the ball at fifty miles an hour on checkdowns, that horsepower translates beautifully on deep balls. No one caught them for him this year at Florida, but that wasn’t his fault.

CONS AGAINST ANTHONY RICHARDSON’S FAVOR AS A POTENTIAL QUARTERBACK, BASED STRICTLY OFF HIS PERFORMANCE IN TWELVE GAMES AT THE COLLEGE LEVEL

Can go late on intermediate throws across the middle. He threw a couple of nasty picks like this, including a crucial one in the Florida State game turning an open slant into a turnover.
Misses a good chunk of swing/screens and layups. His placement on the little stuff is mostly a matter of footwork, but we can’t assume instant improvement or a miracle happening overnight. He hammers short passes when he doesn’t have to, and sometimes just misses them on location completely. There’s a thing on bubble screens where placement matters in terms of putting the runner in the right lane to hit open grass, and Richardson missed that kind of touch and technique with some frequency.
Still rushes reads under pressure. He improved a lot after Kentucky came after his ass and it worked. FSU followed suit to less effect at the end of the season, so there was a lot of improvement here. But a good chunk of his misses in the passing game came off hurried throws where Richardson might have made the right read, but either rushed the throw high or frantically put the ball in the dirt. As wild as it may sound for someone this talented, the game hasn’t slowed down for him yet as a college player, and he’s about to attempt to compete in the NFL.
You want a serious concern? That last point is my biggest one right there: He’s going up a full tier with Josh Allen’s potential, but with less than half of Josh Allen’s experience. (Josh Allen started 25 games in college. Richardson, just twelve.) He’s going to be asked to be Daunte Culpepper eventually, but without starting the thirty-three games Culpepper started in college.

None of this says anything about Anthony Richardson, though. Picking Anthony Richardson says as much about the organization as it does Richardson because the team choosing him has to believe they can help perfect him, and have the competence to develop him. The team drafting Richardson won’t be taking a chance on him. The potential is there, the ability present, and the talent documented and put in context a hundred different ways at this point.

The team drafting him will be taking the biggest risk of all when it bets on its own ability to develop obvious raw talent. It’s one thing to wager on the competence of a mutant in cleats. It’s another entirely to have to trust the Carolina Panthers to do something right, because who should the Carolina Panthers trust less than themselves?

[Gunpowder]

Florida's scheme was a Matt Nagy with the Bears fever dream