The Swamp Can Resume its Gambling Problem

[brian]

I go to bet on Utah -6 about an hour before the game and the douche manager says “Rising isn’t playing” like a) I don’t know that and b) I give a fuck about his opinion.

All I said is “Florida is garbage. That’s what I’m betting on.”

[brian]

The world is a better place when Florida football teams suck shit.

[sancarlos]

You're making some coin tonight.

[brian]

You're making some coin tonight.

It’s nice to (probably) be 1-0 to start the season but never never ever listen to sportsbook employees where bets are concerned.

[Nonlinear FC]

Kind of a random post for me, as I don't really bet much at all, but...

I'm running around prepping for hosting a party yesterday, just kind of ESPN's NFL pre-game on and they have this relatively attractive woman kind of droning on... And she gets to the Bills-Dolphins game, and she is trying to convince folks to bet the under... And I don't really follow the league that closely, BUT... The same Dolphins team that just put up 70? And a Bills team that dismantled a better than average (slightly... maybe just average...) Commanders team?

Her "logic" was that the Bills have a good defense. And then she just sort of flapped her arm at Miami's D. And I'm, like... That is someone that shouldn't be giving advice where ppl lose money from her terrible "analysis."

I believe the O/A was 48.5, not positive, but in that realm. Dolphins 20 - 48 Bills.

She might be worth watching, just to find one of these nuggets and bet against it.

[mister d]

Her "logic" was that the Bills have a good defense. And then she just sort of flapped her arm at Miami's D. And I'm, like... That is someone that shouldn't be giving advice where ppl lose money from her terrible "analysis."

Well right, but whose side do you think she's on assuming there are books sponsoring that program?

[degenerasian]

Or she's just a talking head. It doesn't cost people on tv to be wrong like it costs us.

Like the entire College Gameday show is about making picks. It's pure entertainment. Does 'The Bear" really wager anything?

[DSafetyGuy]

Or she's just a talking head. It doesn't cost people on tv to be wrong like it costs us.

Like the entire College Gameday show is about making picks. It's pure entertainment. Does 'The Bear" really wager anything?

Based on his appearances on many gambling podcasts for football, horse racing, and other sports? I would guess he does.

[Nonlinear FC]

Whether they bet their own money isn't really the point (and I agree with Drugs on The Bear being active.)

I used to gamble a decent amount. I had folks I would read/watch on occasion, but every single one of those folks posted their W/L record. Posted their picks and the W/L.

I would be stunned if this woman does that... Not sure, other than eye candy, which seems to be a heavy factor for that NFL pregame on ESPN, what the point of her just flinging out nonsense is... She's not THAT cute.

[mister d]

Are there any legal restrictions on what people can say or is it simply just advice that can be ignored and thus not policeable? Like if there's a concerted effort to have all hosts talking up an under, either to balance for the books or to get a better price on the over, can anything be done?

[Steve of phpBB]

Are there any legal restrictions on what people can say or is it simply just advice that can be ignored and thus not policeable? Like if there's a concerted effort to have all hosts talking up an under, either to balance for the books or to get a better price on the over, can anything be done?

That's a good question.

There's probably no way for anyone to sue who relied on pundit recommendations. But if there was clear evidence of a conspiracy to mislead the public for personal gain such as getting a better price on the over, it would probably be some kind of criminal fraud violation.

I wonder, are stock analysts ever prosecuted for doing something like that? I would think that'd be a bigger temptation since it's easier to profit from moves in a stock price than moves in an over/under line.

[degenerasian]

Are there any legal restrictions on what people can say or is it simply just advice that can be ignored and thus not policeable? Like if there's a concerted effort to have all hosts talking up an under, either to balance for the books or to get a better price on the over, can anything be done?

Probably the former, no legal restrictions. The betting volume is so high that I can't imagine that enough people watch the same hosts to be influenced the same way. With the internet available, they're not sitting there waiting for a tv segment to come on, they've already got their injury, inactives, head-to-heads, trends and weather reports on the go.

[DSafetyGuy]

Doug Kezirian, who was recently let go by ESPN, was their gambling expert (hosted "Behind the Bets" podcast, "Daily Wager" on TV). He worked as the sports anchor at a station in Vegas for several years, then got hired as a "Sportscenter" host, then led ESPN's shift into gambling coverage. Anyway, I remembered him having a big win in Vegas, so I googled "Doug Kezirian gambling win". First three results included links to news stories:

1. won $58K in a 2022 the William Hill college pick 'em contest
3. won almost $300K on an 2021 NFL draft prop bet (partnered with a professional bettor)

So, he was one who was very upfront about his efforts.

[A_B]

OK. So I am a very small time gambler. $10 is as high as I will go and i'm usually fooling around with 3 buck parlays or whatnot. Put money in my account last year when I was at Rass's. Haven't put any more in and I am up about 40% (percentages look more fun than saying $43.36 in my account).

Two things:

First, here's a question that i don't know the reasoning behind. If I really think that Lawrence is out and saints will win in a walk, it seems like it would make sense to bet a parlay with the spread AND the moneyline. However, the app won't let me do that. I tried it the other day as well but I was distracted and ended up not getting anything in before the start of the Chiefs game and didn't think any more about it until now.

What's the odds logic behind not accepting a bet like that? Since I'm new to this, it isn't obvious to me why I can't double up without making two bets, which of course won't have the same benefit as a 2 pick parlay. There's still downside if the saints don't cover or lose outright. I feel like I'd have more risk since the moneyline could win but they didn't cover and I lose. They only lose if I get both. Just trying to learn.

Second, RE: Hedging

I managed a couple of good hedges week before last and came out ahead when I lost a nice parlay on one game but the hedge made me a few bucks over the total cost of the losing bet and the new one, which I think is the whole idea of hedging. But last weekend (I bet mostly SEC and NFL) I did come out behind because I couldn't figure out the right hedge. So this past weekend I ended up missing THREE parlays on the last game to finish (read more at ratemygamblingstory.com) but it seemed like my hedge was going to have to be significantly higher of a bet (of course it would, the middle one was a six part) but it was a lost cause in the 3rd quarter. But I didn't want to put in a 15 dollar bet to make it worth it. Is that just bad strategy on my part?

[rass]

Not the first pure soul to visit NJ and come home a degenerate bagel-loving gambler.

[mister d]

First: Usually you can't parlay the same result, like a Harper HR and Harper over 1.5 runs+RBIs or something. If the underdog wins, they've obviously also covered the spread.

Second: Small money the hedge usually isn't worth it unless your hedge is on an underdog. Like if your final piece was Bills beating the Giants straight up, its worth a hedge buying the Giants moneyline. If its the reverse, you probably just let it ride.

[sancarlos]

Not the first pure soul to visit NJ and come home a degenerate bagel-loving gambler.

Where do you buy degenerate bagels?

[rass]

hope sancarlos has Grammarly installed - steve buscemi lipstick.gif

[degenerasian]

Lawrence is probably playing and the Saints OL is decimated so might want to re-think that.

I think the play tonight is the over. Over 40, indoors, take it now before Lawrence is confirmed.

[sancarlos]

hope sancarlos has Grammarly installed - steve buscemi lipstick.gif

Jeez, Rass, I was looking forward to a bit more of a fun response than that.

[A_B]

Lawrence is probably playing and the Saints OL is decimated so might want to re-think that.

I think the play tonight is the over. Over 40, indoors, take it now before Lawrence is confirmed.

Oh I'm not doing that bet, I was just illustrating with something that was available now and to use as an example.

[rass]

hope sancarlos has Grammarly installed - steve buscemi lipstick.gif

Jeez, Rass, I was looking forward to a bit more of a fun response than that.

When the police storm the compound they're going to find a room full of notebooks where I've just filled them with "degenerate bagel" scribbled over and over again page after page.

(fuck commas)

[DSafetyGuy]

Lawrence is probably playing and the Saints OL is decimated so might want to re-think that.

I think the play tonight is the over. Over 40, indoors, take it now before Lawrence is confirmed.

I believe last night broke a streak of 15 straight New Orleans games hitting the under.

[MaxWebster]

i keep telling myself that betting on baseball is a total sucker's game, but i don't listen...

e.g. today's $10 on the Phillies was a poor choice..

[brian]

Circa was offering -700 that the Giants won’t be shut out tomorrow so had to throw $210 at that. Surely they can squeak out at least a FG.

[brian]

Circa was offering -700 that the Giants won’t be shut out tomorrow so had to throw $210 at that. Surely they can squeak out at least a FG.

Fuckin’ Giants get an INT to start a drive at the Dallas 11 and then turn it over on downs. Kick a fucking FG with your shitty offense

[Giff]

I am in Lake Charles with some buddies for the first time since sports gambling was legalized. Have a little parlay of the over in the Big 12 and AAC championships plus Bama covering. So far so good.

[DaveInSeattle]

Gift Link:

He hit three monster bets — and then the sportsbook wouldn’t pay

There’s a common marketing slogan in sports betting: “Sweat the game, not the payout.” In other words, when dealing with legitimate sportsbooks and not some shady neighborhood bookie, gamblers shouldn’t have to worry about getting stiffed.

Yet bettors say gaming operators aren’t always living up to that promise, and some industry officials agree. Bookmakers sometimes use a clause in their fine print as an “insurance plan,” as one top regulator put it, to get out of paying big winners — and multiple industry observers say the practice is increasing.

That caveat nearly cost Christopher Kozak $127,420 recently, after Hard Rock Bet voided three successful long shot hockey wagers — involving bets on a host of NHL players being held scoreless in the same game — that he placed in Tennessee. The sportsbook, operated by the Seminole Tribe, notified him several days after the games in question that his payouts were an “obvious error,” and therefore he wasn’t owed anything beyond a refund.

When he pushed back, Hard Rock sought to renegotiate the odds — “a slap in the face,” said Kozak, who shared screenshots of his bets, as well as his extensive correspondence with Hard Rock, with The Washington Post. The messages show company officials repeatedly declining to explain the nature of the “error” or what made it “obvious.”

[mister d]

I bet against my school when they were up double digits at home halfway through the second and used the money to take the kids out to a late lunch.

[brian]

I bet against my school when they were up double digits at home halfway through the second and used the money to take the kids out to a late lunch.

No judgment. I bet $200 on SF at halftime of the NFCGC. Won $1000. Wasn’t at all psyched about it but was the right financial decision

[brian]

If I’m being honest I feel responsible for the Lions losing as fucking insane as that is.

[sancarlos]

Was 30 silver coins worth it, Judas/Brian?

[mister d]

The best bettors are the cynical fans.



(It was a double win. Solo double-dadding this weekend and I took them to a late lunch off the winnings to the one (1) place I’d be upset about losing if someone bombed Secaucus off the map. Top tier prover of the “if everyone else there is the ethnicity of the cuisine” rule which they don’t get to see in our town. Then ice cream at the best place in the state.)

[wlu_lax6]

This was a fun read.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2 ... uper-bowl/