NFL 2024 Offseason

[mister d]

Russ is an old dog who refuses to do the tricks he did in his first few years while also being the corniest human alive.

The dead eyes in the still frame really set it up perfectly.

[Johnnie]

Why, why, why is he like this? What a weirdo.

[sancarlos]

Why, why, why is he like this? What a weirdo.

The funny thing is that I assume he does this sort of thing to make himself seem more relatable to people. But, I think it actually works the opposite way.

[The Sybian]

Why, why, why is he like this? What a weirdo.

The funny thing is that I assume he does this sort of thing to make himself seem more relatable to people. But, I think it actually works the opposite way.

Weirdos can’t act normal, and when they try, it’s worse.

[Jerloma]

Russ is an old dog who refuses to do the tricks he did in his first few years while also being the corniest human alive.

The dead eyes in the still frame really set it up perfectly.

I loathe this with every fiber of my being.

People on the podcasts and twitters are saying that SF may be looking to deal one of their receivers before the draft and the Steelers are in the market and have some cap room maybe and I know Aiyuk is younger, but the idea of Deebo being on the Steelers gets me rock hard. My favorite non-Steeler by far since he came into the league. He's 28 and has 2 years/40 mil left on contract but since they apparently do shit like this all of a sudden, I want that!

[DSafetyGuy]

People on the podcasts and twitters are saying that SF may be looking to deal one of their receivers before the draft and the Steelers are in the market and have some cap room maybe and I know Aiyuk is younger, but the idea of Deebo being on the Steelers gets me rock hard. My favorite non-Steeler by far since he came into the league. He's 28 and has 2 years/40 mil left on contract but since they apparently do shit like this all of a sudden, I want that!

I heard it is Aiyuk they are looking to move. Not sure it is related to his post-Super Bowl grousing, but they do need to create cap space for future seasons.

[sancarlos]

Completely cap-related according to what I’ve read.

[Tom 1860]

L'Jarius Sneed has been traded to the Titans for an exchange of 7th round picks this year and a 3rd rounder next year. He will start along side Chidobe Awuzie with Roger McCreary taking snaps at nickel. This would be a pretty decent starting CB trio for any NFL team.

[Johnnie]

[sancarlos]

So, Bet MGM has released their 2024 expected win totals, for over/under betting. Thoughts? Personally, I think they are too optimistic for teams like the Chargers and Jets,

TEAM 2024 WIN TOTAL OVER PRICE UNDER PRICE
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 -140 +115
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 -130 +110
Baltimore Ravens 11.5 +125 -150
Buffalo Bills 10.5 -120 +100
Carolina Panthers 4.5 -110 -110
Chicago Bears 8.5 -110 -110
Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 -125 +105
Cleveland Browns 8.5 -105 -115
Dallas Cowboys 10.5 +100 -120
Denver Broncos 5.5 -145 +120
Detroit Lions 10.5 +100 -120
Green Bay Packers 9.5 -130 +110
Houston Texans 9.5 +100 -120
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 +120 -145
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 -115 -105
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 -120 +100
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 -145 +120
Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 -140 +115
Los Angeles Rams 8.5 -125 +105
Miami Dolphins 9.5 -140 +115
Minnesota Vikings 6.5 -140 +115
New England Patriots 5.5 +115 -140
New Orleans Saints 7.5 -130 +110
New York Giants 6.5 +110 -130
New York Jets 9.5 +120 -145
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 +100 -120
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5 -165 +140
San Francisco 49ers 11.5 +105 -125
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 -125 +105
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5 -140 +115
Tennessee Titans 6.5 +115 -140
Washington Commanders 6.5 -130 +110

[Gunpowder]

So, Bet MGM has released their 2024 expected win totals, for over/under betting. Thoughts? Personally, I think they are too optimistic for teams like the Chargers and Jets,

TEAM 2024 WIN TOTAL OVER PRICE UNDER PRICE
Arizona Cardinals 6.5 -140 +115
Atlanta Falcons 9.5 -130 +110
Baltimore Ravens 11.5 +125 -150
Buffalo Bills 10.5 -120 +100
Carolina Panthers 4.5 -110 -110
Chicago Bears 8.5 -110 -110
Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 -125 +105
Cleveland Browns 8.5 -105 -115
Dallas Cowboys 10.5 +100 -120
Denver Broncos 5.5 -145 +120
Detroit Lions 10.5 +100 -120
Green Bay Packers 9.5 -130 +110
Houston Texans 9.5 +100 -120
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 +120 -145
Jacksonville Jaguars 8.5 -115 -105
Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 -120 +100
Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 -145 +120
Los Angeles Chargers 8.5 -140 +115
Los Angeles Rams 8.5 -125 +105
Miami Dolphins 9.5 -140 +115
Minnesota Vikings 6.5 -140 +115
New England Patriots 5.5 +115 -140
New Orleans Saints 7.5 -130 +110
New York Giants 6.5 +110 -130
New York Jets 9.5 +120 -145
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 +100 -120
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5 -165 +140
San Francisco 49ers 11.5 +105 -125
Seattle Seahawks 7.5 -125 +105
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.5 -140 +115
Tennessee Titans 6.5 +115 -140
Washington Commanders 6.5 -130 +110

Pittsburgh hasn't finished under 8 wins in like 40 years, that's been the easiest O/U bet for at least 3 years now.

Also like (without looking at schedules):

OVERS
Denver over 5.5
Bills over 10.5
Dolphins over 9.5
Giants over 6.5 (I think)
Commanders over 6.5
Panthers over 4.5 (come on)

UNDERS
Falcons under 9.5
Bears under 8.5 (?)
Packers and Lions unders
Rams under 8.5
Colts under 8.5

[brian]

Also like (without looking at schedules)
UNDERS
Bears under 8.5 (?)
Packers and Lions unders

Pretty unlikely all three of these could go under. Someone’s winning the North and it probably isn’t the Vikings. In the same vein as the Pittsburgh line though the Lions have won 11 games or more 5 times in 95 years so caveat emptor on betting them over 10.5

[Pruitt IV]

New England Patriots 5.5 +115 -140

I could look at this all day.

[HaulCitgo]

VI

[Johnnie]

[EnochRoot]

I heard the Missouri governor was stunned to learn he can’t pardon him across state lines.

[govmentchedda]

Wrong race for that too.

[Gunpowder]

Also like (without looking at schedules)
UNDERS
Bears under 8.5 (?)
Packers and Lions unders

Pretty unlikely all three of these could go under. Someone’s winning the North and it probably isn’t the Vikings. In the same vein as the Pittsburgh line though the Lions have won 11 games or more 5 times in 95 years so caveat emptor on betting them over 10.5

Yeah that's fair, I just look at them in a vacuum at this point. Until the schedules are released I don't make any actual bets.

Gotta check how I did last year, think I did well

EDIT:

Not bad - https://www.godzillawins.com/nfl-over-u ... edictions/

In my actual betting I took Green Bay over 7.5 or whatever their actual O/U total was, so I did pretty well. Should have bet the stayaways though.

[Giff]

Texans might be decent next year. I’ll take a WR crew of Diggs, Collins, and Dell!

[sancarlos]

Gonna be a bit tough on Josh Allen if he doesn't have anybody to throw to.

[The Sybian]

Texans might be decent next year. I’ll take a WR crew of Diggs, Collins, and Dell!

Huh. Should this affect my decision to keep Collins with a 7th round pick for next year? I feel like he will start off as the third option fantasy-wise, but I could see Diggs as being past his prime and not cutting into the stats too much. Diggs really seemed to fall off in the second half of the season last year, and I didn't hear anything about an injury.

[brian]

Texans might be decent next year. I’ll take a WR crew of Diggs, Collins, and Dell!

I like maximizing their title chances under Stroud’s rookie deal but have to be careful not to give away too much draft capital or future cap flexibility. To be clear I don’t think they’re there yet but when his deal comes due it can’t come with a cap crunch and/or no other major contributors on their rookie/draft deals.

[Rush2112]

Gonna be a bit tough on Josh Allen if he doesn't have anybody to throw to.

He's big and fast, he can throw It and then go and catch it himself, unlike Brady.

[Jerloma]

Texans might be decent next year. I’ll take a WR crew of Diggs, Collins, and Dell!

They giving up on Metchie?

[Gunpowder]

Texans might be decent next year. I’ll take a WR crew of Diggs, Collins, and Dell!

I like maximizing their title chances under Stroud’s rookie deal but have to be careful not to give away too much draft capital or future cap flexibility. To be clear I don’t think they’re there yet but when his deal comes due it can’t come with a cap crunch and/or no other major contributors on their rookie/draft deals.

Buffalo paid all the bonus money. Houston can cut Diggs at any time at a hit of $0.*

*After this season, at least.

[Pruitt IV]

I'm thinking that the Diggs' issues that flared up last offseason were more than just media hype.

He played like a #2 receiver for the second half of the season, but there'd better be another new receiver on the horizon, or else the Bills are going to be very reliant on Kincaid and the running game.

And the Texans receiving corps is outstanding.

[brian]

Texans might be decent next year. I’ll take a WR crew of Diggs, Collins, and Dell!

I like maximizing their title chances under Stroud’s rookie deal but have to be careful not to give away too much draft capital or future cap flexibility. To be clear I don’t think they’re there yet but when his deal comes due it can’t come with a cap crunch and/or no other major contributors on their rookie/draft deals.

Buffalo paid all the bonus money. Houston can cut Diggs at any time at a hit of $0.*

*After this season, at least.

I get that but I meant their moves in total. They spent pretty big in FA and a second-rounder for Diggs isn’t nothing. In a vacuum, this is a pretty smart transaction but I’d hate to see them close their window earlier than they could have just bc they feel like they need to win while they’re paying Stroud peanuts. Lots of good franchises manage to win while paying their QBs a fortune. KC does obviously and GB was always competitive with Rodgers. Baltimore appears to be on right track even with Jackson’s huge deal.

Buffalo ironically seems to be forming the contrary scenario though.

[Rush2112]

Isn't the draft supposed to be super deep at WR? Not that they'll get a guy that'll immediately replace Diggs, but they need to retool and shed some salary with the bump that Allen gets this year.

[Gunpowder]

It's deep at WR but outside of the top 3 (top 2 if you ask me) they are all high-ceiling low-floor athletic freak types and oddities, at a position that already has one of the highest bust rates. It's a weird, weird class.

[mister d]

I'd like to read more about this draft class ...

[Gunpowder]

Working on it

[Ryan]

8 ‘graphs on Ladd McConkey or I want a refund

[mister d]

British prospect?

[tennbengal]

It's deep at WR but outside of the top 3 (top 2 if you ask me) they are all high-ceiling low-floor athletic freak types and oddities, at a position that already has one of the highest bust rates. It's a weird, weird class.

Like, dart throws at the next 12 after the big three and any subset of that crew might be awesome. Which subset? Got me.

[sancarlos]

According to Andrew Marchand of The Athletic, the NFL's flagship network has cut ties with on-air personalities Andrew Siciliano, Melissa Stark, James Palmer and Will Selva. An NFL Network spokesperson would not confirm the names of those who were laid off, but did confirm that cuts were happening...
…The four that were reportedly laid off are some of the most popular and talented personalities on the network. Siciliano is a well-known anchor who used to be the face of "Red Zone Channel" on DirecTV. Stark is an analyst and sideline reporter. Palmer is an analyst who also breaks news for the network. Selva was the anchor for the morning show "Good Morning Football."

[DSafetyGuy]

[Pruitt IV]

Is that something a 30 year old receiver should be doing?

He's an ACL injury away from never having another NFL payday after 2024.

[Gunpowder]

8 ‘graphs on Ladd McConkey or I want a refund

aka Chadd McDonkey

[Gunpowder]

Also like (without looking at schedules)
UNDERS
Bears under 8.5 (?)
Packers and Lions unders

Pretty unlikely all three of these could go under. Someone’s winning the North and it probably isn’t the Vikings. In the same vein as the Pittsburgh line though the Lions have won 11 games or more 5 times in 95 years so caveat emptor on betting them over 10.5

Biz Horse projected Schedule Strength (#1 is easiest):

image.png (19.11 KiB) Viewed 132 times

[Gunpowder]

If I can get Tampa over 7.5 I'm hammering that