2024 NFL MOCK DRAFT EXTRAVAGANZA

[Nonlinear FC]

The ONLY way to come up with a reasonable defense is to point out that Cousins is coming off of the type of injury that has the potential of being a long term problem.

[tennbengal]

I mean, I'm on record up there.

I think it's almost like it didn't really need to be said because SO MANY folks were saying it.

You definitely are on point. I just can’t stress enough how bizarre this was. Laird right to note the Cousins piece. Any spend on cousins came at a time in March when falcons had to know by that point they were enamored with Penix, right? Like, under no scenario was Penix gonna be gone before 8. Ever. So, why sign Cousins? Did they get enamored with Penix after March 15? Like, what the actual fuck ????

[tennbengal]

The ONLY way to come up with a reasonable defense is to point out that Cousins is coming off of the type of injury that has the potential of being a long term problem.

But THEY KNEW THAT WHEN THEY DID THE CONTRACT!!!!

[Pruitt IV]

I have been out of town and mostly off-line for the duration of this but...I can't believe how little reaction there really was in here to how over-the-top insane the Falcons move was. Like, that might be genuinely the craziest/dumbest pick in the NFL draft. Ever. Not hyperbole. It's so bad. All of the process that went into that. Like, almost comically bad. Like, if you told me that Falcons GM had someone secretly put in a $1,000,000 bet somewhere on Penix going 8 overall, then, ok...that would explain it. Beyond that...holy smokes.

Just ask Mel Kiper...

Instead, they chose a quarterback to sit behind a guy to whom they just gave $100 million guaranteed. I just don't get the logic here, and it's not like Penix is raw, either. He turns 24 in May and has played a ton of football. It was one of the most shocking picks I can remember in Round 1.

And he's seen them all.

[Nonlinear FC]

Right, which a lot of folks were talking about running up to this draft so... We're back to where we started.

Shithouse Crazy Train.

[EnochRoot]

The practical argument goes they were sitting at 8, and next year the best QB in the class is freakin Shedeur Sanders.

They liked what they saw in a number of QBs to be a longterm answer at QB, so they signed Cousins to a front-loaded deal to get whomever landed to year 3. It just happened to be Penix.

[HaulCitgo]

Except they dont know who the best QB will be this time next year. Where was Joe Burrow on the draft list before his final year at LSU?

Was and still is asinine.

[Nonlinear FC]

(The other slightly hilarious thing is that the reason Penix is such an "old" draft pick is... He's dealt with a ton of injuries!!)

[brian]

Yeah the argument that next year’s QB crop is weak is bullshit. I mean, it may be but to pay him what they did ATL had to believe Cousins could hold down the fort for two to three years. That’s plenty of time to draft a QB in 2025 or 2026.

[Tom 1860]

I think for a bit of balance for those using the words of Mel Kiper to push a point, I would state that Kiper is a massive cunt, who has made (not earned) a living writing utter shite for years. Even his wife and daughter think he's a cunt*, so all three of us can't be wrong...

[+] spoiler

* this is unverified

[EnochRoot]

Except they dont know who the best QB will be this time next year. Where was Joe Burrow on the draft list before his final year at LSU?

Was and still is asinine.

The only way to tell if the pick was asinine is if Penix doesn’t workout longterm in Atlanta, cuz nobody’s gonna G-A-F if they paid Cousins $100m over two years and then released him early.

They’re all-in on Penix.

[HaulCitgo]

Say what now?

yes... they will because that money could have been used to fill other holes. A lot of em.

[EnochRoot]

Say what now?

yes... they will because that money could have been used to fill other holes. A lot of em.

I think most folk’s blind spot is they don’t view Penix the same way Atlanta does. They clearly viewed this QB class as bird in hand.

And yeah, Atlanta has holes. Were they supposed to field a 10 win team coming out of this draft?

[Nonlinear FC]

Appreciate you dying on Penix Mountain.

(The guys I respect that cover the league are baffled... I will retain my bafflement.)

[brian]

Say what now?

yes... they will because that money could have been used to fill other holes. A lot of em.

I think most folk’s blind spot is they don’t view Penix the same way Atlanta does. They clearly viewed this QB class as bird in hand.

And yeah, Atlanta has holes. Were they supposed to field a 10 win team coming out of this draft?

In their division, with Cousins healthy, I don't think that was unreasonable. Instead they "wasted" a pick that could have gone to giving Cousins additional weapons or protection (or improved the defense, etc) with a developmental QB.

[Giff]

A three-game improvement with Cousins, an actual contributor in ‘24 with the 8th pick, a new coaching regime, and that division is not out of the question at all. Crazier shit happens every NFL season.

[EnochRoot]

A three-game improvement with Cousins, an actual contributor in ‘24 with the 8th pick, a new coaching regime, and that division is not out of the question at all. Crazier shit happens every NFL season.

This is part of my point when I said they viewed Penix as bird in hand. There’s no guarantee Atlanta picks anywhere near 8 next off-season, or anywhere close to getting a QB they view as highly as they do Penix. The fact some QBs may shoot up like Burrow is immaterial when you’re holding the #8 pick this season.

[brian]

A three-game improvement with Cousins, an actual contributor in ‘24 with the 8th pick, a new coaching regime, and that division is not out of the question at all. Crazier shit happens every NFL season.

This is part of my point when I said they viewed Penix as bird in hand. There’s no guarantee Atlanta picks anywhere near 8 next off-season, or anywhere close to getting a QB they view as highly as they do Penix. The fact some QBs may shoot up like Burrow is immaterial when you’re holding the #8 pick this season.

But then why pay Kirk Cousins $160M? You’re trying to have this both ways. The argument we’re all making isn’t that Penix at #8 in and of itself is a bad pick but taking him there when you are already committed to a starting QB for at least two years, likely three is.

The argument that the front office doesn’t trust itself to be able to evaluate QBs well enough to take one in the 20s (or a subsequent round) in a future draft isn’t the winning one you think it is.

[Nonlinear FC]

Yeah, in a vacuum, you take Penix at 8... That's not (for me) the argument.

They are trying to spin this that they are setting up for the future but trying to win now. That isn't how they sold this to Kirk, who I'm sure would've loved Odunze or as bri said someone on the OL to protect his old ass.

First round picks are very much "play now" in this league. You don't take #8 as a long term project, especially given the massive contract they laid out for that position.

[EnochRoot]

A three-game improvement with Cousins, an actual contributor in ‘24 with the 8th pick, a new coaching regime, and that division is not out of the question at all. Crazier shit happens every NFL season.

This is part of my point when I said they viewed Penix as bird in hand. There’s no guarantee Atlanta picks anywhere near 8 next off-season, or anywhere close to getting a QB they view as highly as they do Penix. The fact some QBs may shoot up like Burrow is immaterial when you’re holding the #8 pick this season.

But then why pay Kirk Cousins $160M? You’re trying to have this both ways. The argument we’re all making isn’t that Penix at #8 in and of itself is a bad pick but taking him there when you are already committed to a starting QB for at least two years, likely three is.

The argument that the front office doesn’t trust itself to be able to evaluate QBs well enough to take one in the 20s (or a subsequent round) in a future draft isn’t the winning one you think it is.

This is such a bullshit take.

You take the QB you want. You trade back if you feel confident he'll still be there, but yeah, you otherwise pull the trigger.

They took Cousins to give whatever QB they drafted time to acclimate. Just because you feel it's anachronistic to the timeline of a modern NFL franchise, doesn't mean I'm trying to have anything both ways.

[EnochRoot]

Yeah, in a vacuum, you take Penix at 8... That's not (for me) the argument.

They are trying to spin this that they are setting up for the future but trying to win now. That isn't how they sold this to Kirk, who I'm sure would've loved Odunze or as bri said someone on the OL to protect his old ass.

First round picks are very much "play now" in this league. You don't take #8 as a long term project, especially given the massive contract they laid out for that position.

So the issue is they misrepresented themselves to a 36 year old QB with a 1-3 postseason record?

I don't think Penix is a longterm project btw. Cousins being there makes it look that way, but it's not like the guy's got to reinvent how he throws the ball.

[Giff]

Seriously man, you’re in the territory for worst fucking NFL take in the history of this board. Take the L and go home, you’re embarrassing yourself. An 8th pick QB doesn’t fucking need 2-3 years to acclimate to the NFL behind a guy making 160 million.

Apologies if you were violently struck in the head recently, but this take is almost more hilariously worse than the Falcons pick.

[brian]

For whatever it’s worth, the draft is such a crapshoot that it’s not worth trying to pre-judge the decision TOO much.

My opinion of course is that’s it’s fairly indefensible but the obvious fact is if Penix becomes the next Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 then it’s a genius move.

Of course, the sheer fact that the draft (especially where QBs are concerned) IS so random is also why it seems like it behooved Atlanta to be glad it has a competent, albeit old starter and try to surround him with weapons.

[EnochRoot]

For whatever it’s worth, the draft is such a crapshoot that it’s not worth trying to pre-judge the decision TOO much.

My opinion of course is that’s it’s fairly indefensible but the obvious fact is if Penix becomes the next Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 then it’s a genius move.

Of course, the sheer fact that the draft (especially where QBs are concerned) IS so random is also why it seems like it behooved Atlanta to be glad it has a competent, albeit old starter and try to surround him with weapons.

Maybe I'm too far into the weeds here, but I don't see them investing $ in Cousins as a projectable answer without having a protege in the wings. Not when you have the 8th pick in this type of QB-rich class.

[mister d]

I think the simple point is you do one or you do the other but you don't do both.

[EnochRoot]

Seriously man, you’re in the territory for worst fucking NFL take in the history of this board. Take the L and go home, you’re embarrassing yourself. An 8th pick QB doesn’t fucking need 2-3 years to acclimate to the NFL behind a guy making 160 million.

Apologies if you were violently struck in the head recently, but this take is almost more hilariously worse than the Falcons pick.

OK, take a deep breath (and shut the fuck up). Next, tell me why the fact a QB might not need 2-3 years behind an older QB means he won't benefit from it. Or rather, not be hurt by it.

[EnochRoot]

I think the simple point is you do one or you do the other but you don't do both.

And the problem with doing both is everybody gets pissed off that the Falcons fucked it all up.

Except - and this has been my point the entire time - nobody knows jack shit. If Penix works out, nobody will give a crap about how it came to be. It'd be a footnote at best.

[brian]

For whatever it’s worth, the draft is such a crapshoot that it’s not worth trying to pre-judge the decision TOO much.

My opinion of course is that’s it’s fairly indefensible but the obvious fact is if Penix becomes the next Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 then it’s a genius move.

Of course, the sheer fact that the draft (especially where QBs are concerned) IS so random is also why it seems like it behooved Atlanta to be glad it has a competent, albeit old starter and try to surround him with weapons.

Maybe I'm too far into the weeds here, but I don't see them investing $ in Cousins as a projectable answer without having a protege in the wings. Not when you have the 8th pick in this type of QB-rich class.

That’s fair, but I think the argument/debate comes down to an important point then:

Penix projected by a LOT of people to be a second-round pick for a variety of reasons not the least of which is his injury history and his age. The latter cuts both ways for your argument because he doesn’t/shouldn’t really need a whole lot of development with all of his college experience. I don’t want to get hung up on this too much because you’ll get 10 different opinions from 10 different NFL scouts but it’s not like Penix was considered an elite prospect who somehow fell to #8. That would be a different story altogether.

[EnochRoot]

For whatever it’s worth, the draft is such a crapshoot that it’s not worth trying to pre-judge the decision TOO much.

My opinion of course is that’s it’s fairly indefensible but the obvious fact is if Penix becomes the next Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes in 2026 then it’s a genius move.

Of course, the sheer fact that the draft (especially where QBs are concerned) IS so random is also why it seems like it behooved Atlanta to be glad it has a competent, albeit old starter and try to surround him with weapons.

Maybe I'm too far into the weeds here, but I don't see them investing $ in Cousins as a projectable answer without having a protege in the wings. Not when you have the 8th pick in this type of QB-rich class.

That’s fair, but I think the argument/debate comes down to an important point then:

Penix projected by a LOT of people to be a second-round pick for a variety of reasons not the least of which is his injury history and his age. The latter cuts both ways for your argument because he doesn’t/shouldn’t really need a whole lot of development with all of his college experience. I don’t want to get hung up on this too much because you’ll get 10 different opinions from 10 different NFL scouts but it’s not like Penix was considered an elite prospect who somehow fell to #8. That would be a different story altogether.

Are we having the same conversation if they took McCarthy or Nix? Cuz CJ Stroud looked crap-ton better than Bryce Young did last year.

As for multiple opinions on draft stock - Penix was the most NFL ready arm as I recall (which is yes, ironic).

I guess it comes down to asset procurement. If Penix was BPA for the future of the franchise, you pull the trigger.

[ducks]

[brian]

I think there would be the same head-scratching regardless of whether it was McCarthy, Penix or Nix. All three have their pros and cons.

Not that it matters, but I think Penix probably stands a chance to be a pretty decent pro QB. I just simply don’t buy the argument that this was a guy who you can’t pass up at #8. Maybe that’s what it ultimately comes down to and the verdict won’t be in on that for a few years maybe depending how healthy and effective Cousins is.

[EnochRoot]

I think there would be the same head-scratching regardless of whether it was McCarthy, Penix or Nix. All three have their pros and cons.

Not that it matters, but I think Penix probably stands a chance to be a pretty decent pro QB. I just simply don’t buy the argument that this was a guy who you can’t pass up at #8. Maybe that’s what it ultimately comes down to and the verdict won’t be in on that for a few years maybe depending how healthy and effective Cousins is.

That's fair.

I'm simply arguing the point that I can see the logic in why the Falcons went all-in on him, and used the 8th pick to do it. And I also think the Falcons aren't as in-bed with Cousins as some make them out to be.

[EdRomero]

$160 mil seems a lot for not even getting him in bed.

[Giff]

$160 mil seems a lot for not even getting him in bed.

He has to be trolling at this point.

[duff]

$160 mil seems a lot for not even getting him in bed.

It's like paying for an OnlyFans account that is G rated. Not even PG-13 or R.

The NFL is a win now or tear down and rebuild league. Spending 160 mil is a win now solution. Get the man some protection, weapons, or make the defense stronger. You don't draft a 24 year old QB. That is a rebuild selection. You spend that 160 mil on protection, weapons or to get a better defense to help him along. You don't do both.

[Ryan]

Or you saw some of the worst QB play in the world last season so instead of one more potential weapon, you take a shot at doubling down on the most important position in case things go wrong. I really don't care and it's less defensible than not, but I see a path.

[EdRomero]

The only way I see this working is if Penix looks good in preseason or during a Cousin's injury and then they get a first rounder and more for him in a trade when Rodgers or another QB that gets injured and that only makes sense if they thought that this year's available first rounders weren't worth taking, although that's when you trade back. Speaking of trading back, this is the team that chose Raheem Morris over Belichick, so I'll go with they're overthinking things and making bad decisions.

[A_B]

The achilles injury rehab isn't enough injury?

[Nonlinear FC]

Yeah, in a vacuum, you take Penix at 8... That's not (for me) the argument.

They are trying to spin this that they are setting up for the future but trying to win now. That isn't how they sold this to Kirk, who I'm sure would've loved Odunze or as bri said someone on the OL to protect his old ass.

First round picks are very much "play now" in this league. You don't take #8 as a long term project, especially given the massive contract they laid out for that position.

So the issue is they misrepresented themselves to a 36 year old QB with a 1-3 postseason record?

I don't think Penix is a longterm project btw. Cousins being there makes it look that way, but it's not like the guy's got to reinvent how he throws the ball.

Yeah, that is a huge fucking problem. The reputation of a front office matters when you are dealing with free agents down the road. (Just ask the Commanders under Snyder.)

That's just one of the many huge problems when it comes to this pick.

And I don't understand what you are saying about Cousins. Like... at all. They just dropped $100M guaranteed, 160M with incentives/options. In what world does it make sense to then bench this guy for a rookie other than if he gets hurt. And not for nothing, the first bad game from Cousins and the media and fan base are going to very quickly start clamoring for Penix.

When the owner of the team comes down to ask WTF is going on after a pick... Things are awry.

[DSafetyGuy]

They just dropped $100M guaranteed, 160M with incentives/options

Captain Kirk's annual cap hits: $25M, $40M, $57.5M (age 38 season), and $57.5M ($12.5M dead cap of opting out)

The cap hits of the first three seasons completely undercut any financial benefit of "quarterback on a rookie contract", so if Penix takes over the starting role at any point during that time, the Falcons still are handcuffed when it comes to making other roster moves. Even if Penix takes over the starting job and is a strong player from the jump, Cousins' contract is an anchor on their salary cap.

Considering they have contract extension decisions looming in that three-year window for their best young players like A.J. Terrell (free agent after this season), Kyle Pitts (free agent after 2025 season), Drake London (have to decide on fifth-year option after this season), and Bijan Robinson (have to decide on fifth-year option after 2025 season), as well as a looming decision on picking up Penix's fifth-year option after that third season, they have reduced opportunities to add high-end talent through free agency. Tack on that adding Cousins is a move intended to keep them drafting later in the draft, their opportunities for impact additions are further limited.

The first three years of Cousins' contract combined with Penix's current age (24) means that the latter will be in his physical prime when Cousins' contract becomes significantly less onerous and entering the expected physical downside when he starts playing on any contract extension.

[tennbengal]

Seriously man, you’re in the territory for worst fucking NFL take in the history of this board. Take the L and go home, you’re embarrassing yourself. An 8th pick QB doesn’t fucking need 2-3 years to acclimate to the NFL behind a guy making 160 million.

Apologies if you were violently struck in the head recently, but this take is almost more hilariously worse than the Falcons pick.

OK, take a deep breath (and shut the fuck up). Next, tell me why the fact a QB might not need 2-3 years behind an older QB means he won't benefit from it. Or rather, not be hurt by it.

Dude, this is NOT the last draft class ever (I assume). Do NOT burn a top 10 pick on a long term replacement plan at QB. Draft that guy next year. Or the year after.