2024 NFL MOCK DRAFT EXTRAVAGANZA

[HaulCitgo]

They just dropped $100M guaranteed, 160M with incentives/options

Captain Kirk's annual cap hits: $25M, $40M, $57.5M (age 38 season), and $57.5M ($12.5M dead cap of opting out)

The cap hits of the first three seasons completely undercut any financial benefit of "quarterback on a rookie contract", so if Penix takes over the starting role at any point during that time, the Falcons still are handcuffed when it comes to making other roster moves. Even if Penix takes over the starting job and is a strong player from the jump, Cousins' contract is an anchor on their salary cap.

Considering they have contract extension decisions looming in that three-year window for their best young players like A.J. Terrell (free agent after this season), Kyle Pitts (free agent after 2025 season), Drake London (have to decide on fifth-year option after this season), and Bijan Robinson (have to decide on fifth-year option after 2025 season), as well as a looming decision on picking up Penix's fifth-year option after that third season, they have reduced opportunities to add high-end talent through free agency. Tack on that adding Cousins is a move intended to keep them drafting later in the draft, their opportunities for impact additions are further limited.

The first three years of Cousins' contract combined with Penix's current age (24) means that the latter will be in his physical prime when Cousins' contract becomes significantly less onerous and entering the expected physical downside when he starts playing on any contract extension.

Exactly the problem. You've basically blown a chunk of penix value before he takes a snap. I'm all for doubling up but you don't blow that much draft and cap capital on the same spot. Not to mention Falcons have gone disproportionately offensive skill positions in recent picks. Just begs for problems on defense and in trenches

[EnochRoot]

What this boils down to is people are finding reasons why this was a bad decision. If that works for you, then rock on.

Except it won’t be a bad decision if Penix is the longterm answer in Atlanta. The numbers guys will tell you six ways to Sunday why it’s never a good idea to bunt.

$160 mil seems a lot for not even getting him in bed.

He has to be trolling at this point.

No. Just in your mind.

[Nonlinear FC]

I can just as easily say that people that agree with the pick are just finding reasons to justify a really bad decision.

The amount of bullshit this is going to cause in the locker room, alone, shows how little the GM and Coach thought this through.

[Tom 1860]

It is a QB driven league and every team that falls in love with one usually does their utmost to pursue him in FA or the draft.

In the past it was not uncommon for teams to use a high pick for a QB and sit him for a couple of seasons to learn the ropes. This was the case when rookie salaries were were higher in proportion to the cap (Steve McNair is a good example of this). Could this be a similar story, obviously not many teams have a starter level QB if they are picking a QB in the top 8 of the draft.

[Gunpowder]

I think there would be the same head-scratching regardless of whether it was McCarthy, Penix or Nix. All three have their pros and cons.

Not that it matters, but I think Penix probably stands a chance to be a pretty decent pro QB. I just simply don’t buy the argument that this was a guy who you can’t pass up at #8. Maybe that’s what it ultimately comes down to and the verdict won’t be in on that for a few years maybe depending how healthy and effective Cousins is.

At least McCarthy is age-appropriate for a draft-and-develop type.

[Gunpowder]

The only way I see this working is if Penix looks good in preseason or during a Cousin's injury and then they get a first rounder and more for him in a trade when Rodgers or another QB that gets injured and that only makes sense if they thought that this year's available first rounders weren't worth taking, although that's when you trade back. Speaking of trading back, this is the team that chose Raheem Morris over Belichick, so I'll go with they're overthinking things and making bad decisions.

They would take a $50 mil dead cap hit if they traded Cousins today.

[Gunpowder]

What this boils down to is people are finding reasons why this was a bad decision. If that works for you, then rock on.

Except it won’t be a bad decision if Penix is the longterm answer in Atlanta. The numbers guys will tell you six ways to Sunday why it’s never a good idea to bunt.

If Penix is the longterm answer than it was a terrible decision to sign Kirk Cousins.

It's not really about Penix, IMO. Hell, I slotted him at #9 in my draft. It's drafting a 24-year old QB with a top ten pick to be a developmental player. He's started like 200 college games and probably doesn't have as much development left as most rookies.

[The Sybian]

A major reason teams are so willing to play rookie QBs these days is to get some average QB play at a rookie contract level. By sitting Penix for several years, they are missing out on that benefit. Then they'll have a guy with 1 or 2 years of playing experience and have to start shelling out huge money for him. Sure, Penix may be a HoF level guy someday and people MIGHT forget they also paid Cousins a fuckton, but it still doesn't make any sense.

[tennbengal]

What this boils down to is people are finding reasons why this was a bad decision. If that works for you, then rock on.

Except it won’t be a bad decision if Penix is the longterm answer in Atlanta. The numbers guys will tell you six ways to Sunday why it’s never a good idea to bunt.

If Penix is the longterm answer than it was a terrible decision to sign Kirk Cousins.

It's not really about Penix, IMO. Hell, I slotted him at #9 in my draft. It's drafting a 24-year old QB with a top ten pick to be a developmental player. He's started like 200 college games and probably doesn't have as much development left as most rookies.

This. All this.

[sancarlos]

It is a QB driven league and every team that falls in love with one usually does their utmost to pursue him in FA or the draft.

Most limit themselves to falling in love with just one at a time.

[Pruitt IV]

Only time will tell.

My 2 (Canadian cents) say that the Falcons win nothing with Cousins. And signing a 35 year old QB coming off of a torn achilles was the sort of move that you'd hope a division rival would make.

[EdRomero]

The only way I see this working is if Penix looks good in preseason or during a Cousin's injury and then they get a first rounder and more for him in a trade when Rodgers or another QB that gets injured and that only makes sense if they thought that this year's available first rounders weren't worth taking, although that's when you trade back. Speaking of trading back, this is the team that chose Raheem Morris over Belichick, so I'll go with they're overthinking things and making bad decisions.

They would take a $50 mil dead cap hit if they traded Cousins today.

I meant trading Penix, not Cousins thinking teams in the past overpaid for young backups that showed a little success

[brian]

Cousins also has a no-trade clause.

[sancarlos]

Sooo, the only way they get value out of Penix (aside from trading him) is if Cousins gets hurt or really sucks, meaning a horrible sunk cost.

[Ryan]

Crazy I know but what if he starts for you at the apparently ripe old age of 26 and you get 8-10 years of a really good QB?

Wouldn’t every known-to-be-good QB at that age be a really high pick in most any draft? A completely shitty 28 y.o. went 22nd. So the only variable here is “Is he really good?” which every other team is also dealing with.

Again, this is the Atlanta Falcons and people wanna kill them for overcompensating in their QB basket?

[Gunpowder]

Well yeah nothing is dumb if the best-case scenario happens. Trade every pick for Ricky Williams.

He should be starting for them now but he can't for two or maybe even three years because they paid Kirk Cousins, in a sport where the single largest advantage a team can have is "QB on a rookie contract". It needs to be a huge hit just to not be dumb, and I don't think that's the best way to draft.

[Gunpowder]

The only way I see this working is if Penix looks good in preseason or during a Cousin's injury and then they get a first rounder and more for him in a trade when Rodgers or another QB that gets injured and that only makes sense if they thought that this year's available first rounders weren't worth taking, although that's when you trade back. Speaking of trading back, this is the team that chose Raheem Morris over Belichick, so I'll go with they're overthinking things and making bad decisions.

They would take a $50 mil dead cap hit if they traded Cousins today.

I meant trading Penix, not Cousins thinking teams in the past overpaid for young backups that showed a little success

They would have to cut multiple players to even fit a Penix trade under their cap, in the hopes of getting a decent pick next year. It's not great.

[Gunpowder]

Only time will tell.

My 2 (Canadian cents) say that the Falcons win nothing with Cousins. And signing a 35 year old QB coming off of a torn achilles was the sort of move that you'd hope a division rival would make.

Yes I agree with this. Even if you had to trade up to #5 or #6 or so to be absolutely sure you get Penix, it's better than anchoring your roster to Kirk Cousins at this stage of his career.

[tennbengal]

On top of that, that division is doughy soft. You take the money you put into Cousin's contract that ate away at available salary cap and instead, I dunno, got get Danielle Hunter and Christian Wilkins, say, to help that wasteland that is their d-line and given the plentiful investments already in place on offense from previous draft decisions and free agent signings and you can win that division with Penix as a rookie. Easily. I just cannot square spending the cap space on Cousins AND wasting the present value of a top 10 pick within the space of five weeks. Pick one. Either hit free agency and hit it hard and draft Penix OR sign Cousins and use #8 overall on literally the top defensive player on your board in the draft. Byron Murphy. Your top CB to pair with AJ Terrell with Jessie Bates in CF. An edge if that's your ranking. But what they did? Nonsensical.

[mister d]

Feels like its inevitable Cousins goes down early on and people are like "see, he knew what he was doing!".

[Ryan]

Kyler’s going to break in half again and Desmond Ridder will light it up

[tennbengal]

Feels like its inevitable Cousins goes down early on and people are like "see, he knew what he was doing!".

Those same people wondering when Atlanta is giving up 290 yards a game on the ground - "what could have been done to have addressed this?"

[Rex]

28….th…re….e…..this is the Atlanta Falcons

[DSafetyGuy]

Can’t believe I didn’t realize this but from the Athletic:

Other execs noted that current Falcons director of player personnel Ryan Pace was the Bears’ GM in 2017 when the team signed quarterback Mike Glennon to a surprisingly expensive deal six weeks before Chicago traded from No. 3 to No. 2 for quarterback Mitch Trubisky.