MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

Post by mister d »

DSafetyGuy wrote:I don't know if you're trolling or not and I don't know how I feel if they were to do that and I think I would actually like it even though it goes against lots of things that I believe.
Trolling. Verlander has a ways to go before I'd think his real best use is in the pen, atleast in the regular season.


(Although, he's the exact type I think will reach a point where he could be a stellar late career pen arm if he can bounce back without rest.)
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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The Yankees' ever growing payroll now includes reporters from the Miami Herald, apparently.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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mister d wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:I don't know if you're trolling or not and I don't know how I feel if they were to do that and I think I would actually like it even though it goes against lots of things that I believe.
Trolling. Verlander has a ways to go before I'd think his real best use is in the pen, atleast in the regular season.


(Although, he's the exact type I think will reach a point where he could be a stellar late career pen arm if he can bounce back without rest.)
Yeah, many Tigers fans were suggesting he move to the pen last season (and not just for the postseason), so that was the root of my confusion.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

Post by sancarlos »

brian wrote:Well, you're an extremely negative person so that's not surprising.
The "life's too short" kind of attitude had a short shelf life, eh?
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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DSafetyGuy wrote:Yeah, many Tigers fans were suggesting he move to the pen last season (and not just for the postseason), so that was the root of my confusion.
Really? That kind of ruins what I was trying to do during the ALDS.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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sancarlos wrote:
brian wrote:Well, you're an extremely negative person so that's not surprising.
The "life's too short" kind of attitude had a short shelf life, eh?
So I'm not allowed to point out the obvious?
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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So the Mets signed Cuddyer to a two-year contract, but am I missing something here? I really thought he was a candidate to be the first to actually accept a qualifying offer. Unless the Mets got him for a song (doubtful) why would there be a rush to sign him when you have a give up a draft pick? I really feel like I'm legitimately missing something here. I could understand a rush to sign a guy like Scherzer or even Shields or Martinez, but why would you feel like you have to immediately lock up Cuddyer?
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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(I'm trying harder to understand some of the offseason MLB minutiae and crazy (to me, at least) rules and whatnot and I'm struggling with some of it.) Like last year wasn't one of the reasons Drew wasn't signed until after the draft was specifically because of the draft pick compensation? I don't see how Cuddyer is that much better, especially since his numbers were probably inflated somewhat by playing in Colorado.

ETA: I posted this before going through my Twitter feed, so it at least it seems like I'm not crazy. A lot of guys I trust (Gleeman, Nitkowski, etc.) treating this with some legitimate scorn.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Sandy Alderson's tenure as Met GM will likely have zero overlap with the MLB career of the 15th pick. Not the best move for the Mets franchise but that's what happens when a team decides to try to win immediately.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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mister d wrote:Sandy Alderson's tenure as Met GM will likely have zero overlap with the MLB career of the 15th pick. Not the best move for the Mets franchise but that's what happens when a team decides to try to win immediately.
In looking at the FA OF options, it's slimmer pickings than I thought, but if you're going to try and make a splash and give up a draft pick I'd personally have rather gone with Melky Cabrera, PED concerns and all. But it makes a little bit more sense than I initially thought.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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brian wrote:
mister d wrote:Sandy Alderson's tenure as Met GM will likely have zero overlap with the MLB career of the 15th pick. Not the best move for the Mets franchise but that's what happens when a team decides to try to win immediately.
In looking at the FA OF options, it's slimmer pickings than I thought, but if you're going to try and make a splash and give up a draft pick I'd personally have rather gone with Melky Cabrera, PED concerns and all. But it makes a little bit more sense than I initially thought.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Mets have the depth to swing a trade, which is probably the route they should have gone instead of a late 30s DH who hasn't cracked 550 PAs since 2010.

(I'm taking the idea of being older than Cuddyer really hard. He plays and looks old.)
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Saw the deal was for $21M ($12.5M and $8.5M) so that's not quite as bad as I thought, money-wise. Makes you wonder about his health if he turned down the $15.3M qualifying offer though. Obviously $21M is more than $15.3M, but it doesn't sound like he's betting on his health. If he's healthy next year and has even a decent season in Colorado, you'd think he might be able to get a 2-year deal in 2015, possibly as a DH-type player for an AL team.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Apparently him and David Wright are super-duper friends.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

Post by Brontoburglar »

This about Ryan Howard screams "attempt to create a market" by a member of the Phils org.

1. Hosmer and Gordon are LH
2. Royals have cited "lineup flexibility" for a long time
3. Howard's production is falling off a cliff (.690 OPS in '14. .658 against RHPs)
4. Phils would have to eat at least $40MM
5. Royals have a DH/1B type in Billy Butler, who is cheaper
6. Butler is a RHH!
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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It also screams "Dayton Moore and Ruben Amaro talking on the telephone".
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Apropos of nothing, a guy in the FBB league I run with D-Fluff and TTB as members was convinced Michael Cuddyer's last name was pronounced "KOO-dee-ay".
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Tigers reportedly re-sign Martinez for 4 years, $70M.

Glad it's not my money. I love V-Mart but damn...that's a lot of money for a DH.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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(Although, as one Tweet I just saw put it:

When Victor Martinez's new deal ends, the Angels will still owe Albert Pujols $87 million.)
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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The big picture here is that any concern about Mike Ilitch closing his wallet appear to be unnecessary, especially if you believe rumors that the Tigers are the front-runner for Melky Cabrera. Tigers payroll could be north of $200M on Opening Day. I think Martinez will age pretty well all things considered, but was hoping to be able to move Cabrera to DH in a year or two.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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I'm completely open-minded about what the Tigers (or Royals) have the potential to do during the off-season. I think it's pretty hard to predict the mind of an elderly billionaire owner.

But I don't think signing Victor Martinez to this contract sends any kind of signal about the Tigers intentions, or makes them a favorite in the division. Most believed the Tigers would land him, and for something in this range. If they didn't, they'd most likely spend a similar amount for others. This puts their payroll at roughly what it was last season. But the team has (at least for now) lost Scherzer, Hunter, and Coke, while getting shortstop Iglesias back from serious injury and knowing little about whether surgery will leave Miguel Cabrera better (fixing underlying problems) or worse (failing to fix them and playing the season without proper off-season conditioning).

The big question is what the Tigers do now. They have significant holes in their lineup in one outfield spot and the bullpen, and need a 5th starter. The minor leagues are pretty depleted. If Mike Ilitch steps up to spend big -- say, signing Andrew Miller and Colby Rasmus or Melky Cabrera -- then he's taking even more financial risk than previously, and he was very high on this list in recent years. If he essentially stands pat by adding no big contracts, then the door is open for the Royals to capitalize on the financial windfall they get from their post-season success to spend at least moderately in free agency (e.g., along the lines of Ervin Santana and Mike Morse) and start the season with roughly the same talent level as the Tigers.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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How much was the Royals "financial windfall"?
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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brian wrote:How much was the Royals "financial windfall"?
No idea. But they were the home team for a bunch of post-season games. That's worth a lot. Worth more is the bump in attendance, pricing, and media deals they'll get for several years to come. As a ballpark estimate, it could be enough to justify signing a pretty good free agent where in previous years they would have signed someone marginal to fill the same roster spot. Obviously money is coming off their payroll along with the free agency of Shields, Butler, and Aoki. So they have this to work with as well.

Tigers v. Royals in the off-season is going to be interesting.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Well since you don't know I can tell you that they made approximately $12M-14M in playoff revenue. They'll make more money on tickets next year as they'll likely finally draw above 1.7 million. But their payroll was already at $91M. Even with at least a one-year bump in revenue I don't see them going above $110M. They'll contend for the Central but they'll need everything to go right again like this year to win it.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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A $110M payroll suggests the Royals can land some significant free agents. They've got established major league players with tremendous tools who are just entering their primes. Duffy and Ventura in particular. How many of their players are well over 30 and on the way down, or seem to be fighting chronic injuries? Only Infante and Guthrie come to mind. So the projected net development of their current players appears to me to be a big plus; they also have some pretty good prospects. Not so with the Tigers on either front. The Royals appear to me to be a team that doesn't need everything to break their way to be serious contenders.

And of course, not everything broke the Royals way in 2014. They had good luck in getting hot in the post-season. But in general, this was not a miracle year. In particular, the projected middle of their lineup -- Hosmer, Butler, Moustakous -- hit poorly. Perez and Aoki had the worst seasons of their (short) pro careers. Infante, Cain, and Duffy lost significant time with injuries. Luke Hochevar was a lights-out reliever in 2013, and out for the season in 2014. They actually overcame quite a bit to have a pretty good season. With a good off-season and a bit of luck -- which every team needs -- I think the Royals are going to be tough to beat. Same with the Tigers, in my view.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

Post by tennbengal »

Teams don't make money on the tix in the playoffs (cut up among all the teams) - they make it in concession sales etc. So, a windfall for the Royals, but not as much as you might suppose.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Detroit should look into assuming Matt Kemp's contract. For real.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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mister d wrote:Detroit should look into assuming Matt Kemp's contract. For real.
I wonder if the Dodgers would be interested in eating any part of that contract. If they can get LA to eat $20 or $25M and get him for like $15M/year instead of $20M then there's possibly some value there, especially since he likely can't be any worse of a defender at a corner outfield position now that the Tigers have CF locked up with Gose and Davis. You gotta think if he's healthy he should be good for 3 to 4 WAR a season and you can justify paying $4-5M/WAR
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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tennbengal wrote:Teams don't make money on the tix in the playoffs (cut up among all the teams) - they make it in concession sales etc. So, a windfall for the Royals, but not as much as you might suppose.
Yeah, that was my point -- though according to MLB's goofy rules the teams actually make more in gate revenue as each series goes on which means the WS going 7 helped them a little. The only REAL value to the Royals was the fact that they can likely raise ticket prices for 2015 and get away with it and that they'll get an increase in season tickets and ticket sales in general. They've been right around 1.7M per season for the last four or five years, based on previous examples of out of nowhere runs to the World Series (Colorado, Detroit in '06, etc.) they'll likely see their attendance get up to between 2.3 and 2.5M next year unless they start out 0-20 or something. That's real money, but it's not Jon Lester or Max Scherzer money.

My point to DC and what a lot of people outside KC fans didn't realize was that KC was basically already at the end of their salary capabilities last year. They were middle in the pack of salary (16th in MLB/$91M), they weren't the "plucky upstarts" a lot of people wanted to make them out to be. So it's not like they can tack on $30 or 40M a year in salary because they made the World Series.

They'll be contenders for a whole host of reasons, most mentioned, but it ain't going to be because they went to the World Series one year.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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brian wrote:I wonder if the Dodgers would be interested in eating any part of that contract. If they can get LA to eat $20 or $25M and get him for like $15M/year instead of $20M then there's possibly some value there, especially since he likely can't be any worse of a defender at a corner outfield position now that the Tigers have CF locked up with Gose and Davis. You gotta think if he's healthy he should be good for 3 to 4 WAR a season and you can justify paying $4-5M/WAR
I imagine they would, especially under the new regime and if it can net them a flyer prospect or sneaky MLB piece in return.

Detroit going scorched earth, if that's the plan, is going to be pretty interesting. You sort of wonder if Scherzer's people know this and he'll eventually be back on a deal that makes 6Y/$144MM look like nothing.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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mister d wrote:
brian wrote:I wonder if the Dodgers would be interested in eating any part of that contract. If they can get LA to eat $20 or $25M and get him for like $15M/year instead of $20M then there's possibly some value there, especially since he likely can't be any worse of a defender at a corner outfield position now that the Tigers have CF locked up with Gose and Davis. You gotta think if he's healthy he should be good for 3 to 4 WAR a season and you can justify paying $4-5M/WAR
I imagine they would, especially under the new regime and if it can net them a flyer prospect or sneaky MLB piece in return.

Detroit going scorched earth, if that's the plan, is going to be pretty interesting. You sort of wonder if Scherzer's people know this and he'll eventually be back on a deal that makes 6Y/$144MM look like nothing.
The real interesting question (which I suppose we'll know at some point) is a) if that 6/144 deal is still on the table for the Tigers after the Cabrera extension and other assorted deals since then and b) if it is if other teams will match or exceed it.

I believe a) is probably true -- Ilitch likes to take care of his guys and probably doesn't care about the money at this point. I don't know this for sure, but I think he looks as some of these deals for Verlander, Cabrera, Martinez, etc. that are ridiculous on their face as money paid for previous performance as well (which is a horrible way to look at it from a business standpoint, but he's a dying 86-year billionaire whose kids are shitheads. What else is he going to spend his money on?)

b) is an interesting question. Teams are obviously interested in Scherzer, but will any go up to more than $25M per?
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Someone will exceed that deal, possibly with the same AAV and atleast a year more if not two. The initial offer is close to (or maybe exactly) the deal Cole Hamels got and a couple years later that's now a tradeable asset versus albatross. I imagine part of what doesn't help is, despite the lesser resume, Scherzer was better in 2013 and 2014 and he projects better than Verlander and Verlander got like a quarter billion or something.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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(This would also be the perfect time for a team to see what kind of insanity could get a top free agent to sign short term and then re-hit free agency still before the end of his prime. Like what if Scherzer got offered $75MM for 2 years? Ignoring time value and all that and just comparing it to the original offer, you're giving up his age 32-35 years at $17.25MM per.)
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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I think a Boras client is less likely to do that than just about anyone, but I agree -- it would be interesting. You assume those deals get floated, but I can't recall one ever accepted really, at least not by someone in his prime. It's a big gamble, but it could work from the player's perspective. Stay healthy, have a good couple of years, TV contract continue to increase and you could still get a megadeal in 2016.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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Boras lives to max out, so wouldn't a massive 2 year deal plus a potential 6 year deal post-age 31 be his masterpiece? He couldn't do it across the board because too many individual players would lose even if he stayed net even or better, but a one-time deal would be a lot of fun. Really, I just want an answer to that hypothetical. I could guess most contracts now within a couple million annual but "what is Max Scherzer's one year buyout amount" is a total mystery.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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mister d wrote:Boras lives to max out, so wouldn't a massive 2 year deal plus a potential 6 year deal post-age 31 be his masterpiece? He couldn't do it across the board because too many individual players would lose even if he stayed net even or better, but a one-time deal would be a lot of fun. Really, I just want an answer to that hypothetical. I could guess most contracts now within a couple million annual but "what is Max Scherzer's one year buyout amount" is a total mystery.
What are you thinking for Scherzer then? 7/185?
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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This is like cats and dogs living together and having great discourse!
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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brian wrote:Yeah, that was my point -- though according to MLB's goofy rules the teams actually make more in gate revenue as each series goes on which means the WS going 7 helped them a little. The only REAL value to the Royals was the fact that they can likely raise ticket prices for 2015 and get away with it and that they'll get an increase in season tickets and ticket sales in general. They've been right around 1.7M per season for the last four or five years, based on previous examples of out of nowhere runs to the World Series (Colorado, Detroit in '06, etc.) they'll likely see their attendance get up to between 2.3 and 2.5M next year unless they start out 0-20 or something. That's real money, but it's not Jon Lester or Max Scherzer money.
I have no idea what "at the end of their salary capabilities" means. If you mean that they were running on a break-even basis if they didn't make the post-season, then I agree. When the numbers come out, I believe this will also be found to be true of the Tigers. But of course, the Royals went the max number of games. That means an extra $10-15M immediately from the profits on their share of the gate plus all the other game-related sales. But more importantly, they are assured that there is more to come in 2015 and future years as attendance and pricing go up, and their media deals get re-done. Their 2014 success also significantly raises the value of the franchise. That's not cash you can spend, but it's very close to this from an owner's point of view. It justifies pushing the cash-flow envelope.

Regarding what this means in terms of 2015 payroll, I wrote:

"As a ballpark estimate, it could be enough to justify signing a pretty good free agent where in previous years they would have signed someone marginal to fill the same roster spot."

That is nothing like a $30-40M payroll boost. More like half of that. Still, that's significant in the context of the Royals. And significant in terms of what they can afford to do to raise their talent level.
My point to DC and what a lot of people outside KC fans didn't realize was that KC was basically already at the end of their salary capabilities last year. They were middle in the pack of salary (16th in MLB/$91M), they weren't the "plucky upstarts" a lot of people wanted to make them out to be. So it's not like they can tack on $30 or 40M a year in salary because they made the World Series.
I suppose their pluckiness is a matter of definition. But by mine, they were quite plucky. Spending well under $90M and getting one homerun from winning it all, when so many teams were over $130M (including the Giants and Tigers), seems pretty deep in underdog territory. Further, how many years has it been since the Royals were in a World Series?
They'll be contenders for a whole host of reasons, most mentioned, but it ain't going to be because they went to the World Series one year.
As you note, I mentioned several reasons the Royals would have at least the talent level going into 2015 that they had in 2014. The financial bonus from playing game 7 in the World Series is obviously one of the factors. But of course, not the only one.
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Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

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brian wrote:
mister d wrote:Boras lives to max out, so wouldn't a massive 2 year deal plus a potential 6 year deal post-age 31 be his masterpiece? He couldn't do it across the board because too many individual players would lose even if he stayed net even or better, but a one-time deal would be a lot of fun. Really, I just want an answer to that hypothetical. I could guess most contracts now within a couple million annual but "what is Max Scherzer's one year buyout amount" is a total mystery.
What are you thinking for Scherzer then? 7/185?
That sounds right, although I wouldn't be very shocked if he gets to 8 years and over $200MM, especially if the Cubs get into a bidding war.
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Joined: Tue Mar 12, 2013 8:15 am

Re: MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

Post by mister d »

DC47 wrote:As you note, I mentioned several reasons the Royals would have at least the talent level going into 2015 that they had in 2014. The financial bonus from playing game 7 in the World Series is obviously one of the factors. But of course, not the only one.
Who's replacing Shields? He's overrated, certainly, but you can't just shrug off a #2 leaving.
Johnnie wrote: Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:13 pmOh shit, you just reminded me about toilet paper.
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