Every so often... (oh, hey there, NFC South)

[tennbengal]

...something happens that, looking back on it, I still never would have guessed would come to pass in a million years in the sporting world.

The utter futility and collapse of the NFC South in 2014 fits that. When I was war-gaming the season for the Bengals and other AFC North teams, I figured a series of really hard games against the NFC South. To be at this point, with every NFC South team at least 3 games under .500 and every AFC North team at least 3 games over .500, that's just absolutely stunning to me.

The collapse of the Saints is epic. The Falcons struggles, coupled with their brain dead coach, a thing to behold. That leap from the Bucs - not so much (altho watch them beat Cincy this weekend). And Carolina? A cipher and a mess all at once.

Just crazy how bad that division collectively is, and I never would have guessed it. Even looking back into August, not even an inkling.

They will be lucky, LUCKY, to get a team to 7-9 at this point for a division winner. I keep hoping that 6-10 will take the division - just because that would be so epic.

I am befuddled.

[Pruitt]

I had to laugh during the games last night when they showed the Playoff Picture graphic with the division leaders, wild card teams and those "in the hunt."

Because Tampa was listed at 2-9, and yes, they have as good a shot as the Bills or Dolphins of making the postseason.

And as impressive as the AFC North standings look, it must be tempered by the fact that the NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North.

Oh, and the Falcons are in first.

Unfathomable...

[Johnny Carwash]

Yeah, that's pretty odd, especially considering the division seemed to just get terrible overnight. Weren't NO, ATL, and CAR all considered to have relatively decent shots of winning 10+ games going into the season?

The eight-division alignment is just dumb. I get that it makes mathematic sense with the number of teams, but the chances of bad teams getting to the playoffs while better ones are excluded is too high.

[Sabo]

Also interesting that the Falcons are 4-7, and all of their wins are against division opponents.

[tennbengal]

I had to laugh during the games last night when they showed the Playoff Picture graphic with the division leaders, wild card teams and those "in the hunt."

Because Tampa was listed at 2-9, and yes, they have as good a shot as the Bills or Dolphins of making the postseason.

And as impressive as the AFC North standings look, it must be tempered by the fact that the NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North.

Oh, and the Falcons are in first.

Unfathomable...

Eh, in part the NFC south issues are because they have to play the AFC North teams. The North teams are really good, across the board. But, still.

[L-Jam3]

Put me in the camp that doesn't mind if a shitty team gets in the playoffs every once in a while. I enjoyed watching the Saints go down to 7-9 Seattle. Sure, it sucks occasionally, when really good teams get left staying home (the 103-win 1993 SF Giants come to mind first), but does anyone look at the 2012 LA Kings and say their title isn't valid b/c they had a losing record in the regular season?

If Philly, Dallas, Seattle, or 49ers are staying home while the NFC Chump gets in, those teams have no one to blame but themselves they didn't win enough.

[degenerasian]

I agree. Every team's goal at the beginning of the year is to win their division. Yes a team can be a wildcard and win the Super Bowl but that shouldn't be the primary goal so division winners should be rewarded. Otherwise what would be the point of playing divisional opponents twice?

Hockey is slightly different because there are only 2 division winners out of 8 playoff teams so it's more random.

I figured the NFC South would be bad but maybe not this bad. Tampa Bay is in transition and just hired Lovie Smith. Carolina lost all their Wide Receivers and the Brady situation doesn't help. Falcons were on borrowed time for awhile, extraordinary skill saved a terrible coach. Haven't been able to replace Tony Gonzalez. And finally the Saints hired ROB RYAN! Still thought the Saints would run away with the division, losing 3 straight at home is really surprising.

Carolina's going to win the division at 5-10-1. That dream is still alive!

[tennbengal]

I am also not advocating to leave the div winner out. Just marveling at how bad that division is all of a sudden.

[sancarlos]

I personally really like the current divisional and schedule format. Yes, it occasionally lets in a stinker team, but the benefits outweigh the issues.

[degenerasian]

I personally really like the current divisional and schedule format. Yes, it occasionally lets in a stinker team, but the benefits outweigh the issues.

Do you think the NFL will ever expand? Yes it would be worth billions but it would really fuck up this perfect scheduling.

[brian]

I personally really like the current divisional and schedule format. Yes, it occasionally lets in a stinker team, but the benefits outweigh the issues.

Do you think the NFL will ever expand? Yes it would be worth billions but it would really fuck up this perfect scheduling.

I've seen rumblings about maybe one day going to 36 teams and three divisions of 6, possibly in conjunction with a team in London so not for at least another decade or so.

[EdRomero]

I had to laugh during the games last night when they showed the Playoff Picture graphic with the division leaders, wild card teams and those "in the hunt."

Because Tampa was listed at 2-9, and yes, they have as good a shot as the Bills or Dolphins of making the postseason.

And as impressive as the AFC North standings look, it must be tempered by the fact that the NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North.

Oh, and the Falcons are in first.

Unfathomable...

Eh, in part the NFC south issues are because they have to play the AFC North teams. The North teams are really good, across the board. But, still.

Are the AFC North teams really good, or do they seem good because they're beating up the NFC South? I guess someone not as lazy as me could look up their non-division/non-NFC south records.

[brian]

The Packers won the NFC North with basically an 8-8 record last year and I didn't see the bleating that everyone is making about the South this year. It happens in a small division. I'm tired of hearing about it frankly. Given enough time, it'll happen in damn near every division. Get over it. No need to change anything.

[rass]

And as impressive as the AFC North standings look, it must be tempered by the fact that the NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North.

Are you sure on that record?

[tennbengal]

I had to laugh during the games last night when they showed the Playoff Picture graphic with the division leaders, wild card teams and those "in the hunt."

Because Tampa was listed at 2-9, and yes, they have as good a shot as the Bills or Dolphins of making the postseason.

And as impressive as the AFC North standings look, it must be tempered by the fact that the NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North.

Oh, and the Falcons are in first.

Unfathomable...

Eh, in part the NFC south issues are because they have to play the AFC North teams. The North teams are really good, across the board. But, still.

Are the AFC North teams really good, or do they seem good because they're beating up the NFC South? I guess someone not as lazy as me could look up their non-division/non-NFC south records.

They are holding their own outside of the NFC South.

[L-Jam3]

Going off of Week 11 (Week 12 won't be out until this afternoon), here's where they ranked and their total DVOA. 0% means the baseline average NFL team in 2014:

AFCN
3. BAL, 22.0%
10. PIT, 6.9%
17. CIN, -2.9%
19. CLE, -4.6%

NFCS
16. NO, 3.2%
20. ATL, -6.6%
29. CAR, -21.8%
32, TB, -25.2%

CIN, BAL, and CLE will get bumps, Cincy being the most, and all four NFCS teams will drop in percentage.

So yeah, the NFCS sucks.

[tennbengal]

I didn't start this thread to say the NFC South division winner shouldn't get in.

Just started it to marvel at what has become of that division.

[brian]

I didn't start this thread to say the NFC South division winner shouldn't get in.

Just started it to marvel at what has become of that division.

I was worried you might think my comment was directed at you. It was not. It was directed at the Pollyannas in the media.

[tennbengal]

Ah, yeah.

The outcries for that when this infrequently occurs always make me laugh.

This kind of carnage, when it arises, is just fun in its own right.

[Pruitt]

And as impressive as the AFC North standings look, it must be tempered by the fact that the NFC South is 1-10-1 against the AFC North.

Are you sure on that record?

I checked on ESPN - http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/type/vs-division

Maybe that should be the AFC North tiebreaker - which team managed to lose against the NFC South.

[travzilla]

Ah, yeah.

The outcries for that when this infrequently occurs always make me laugh.

This kind of carnage, when it arises, is just fun in its own right.

Yeah when the seahawks won the west at 7-9 and got to host the Saints, people (media) were freaking out, calling for immediate realignment, etc. It's like people have no concept of things that are cyclical.
Still pretty crazy that only a few years later it's setting up for the exact opposite to happen - Seahawks forced to go on the road to 7-9 New Orleans (and lose, hopefully).

[rass]

GD it Pruitt. That was a joke. Click on the link!

[L-Jam3]

Ah, yeah.

The outcries for that when this infrequently occurs always make me laugh.

This kind of carnage, when it arises, is just fun in its own right.

Yeah when the seahawks won the west at 7-9 and got to host the Saints, people (media) were freaking out, calling for immediate realignment, etc. It's like people have no concept of things that are cyclical.
Still pretty crazy that only a few years later it's setting up for the exact opposite to happen - Seahawks forced to go on the road to 7-9 New Orleans (and lose, hopefully).

IRONY!

[Pruitt]

GD it Pruitt. That was a joke. Click on the link!

Man, there was a wind storm here last night that woke my wife at 4:00 which meant that she woke me up because she heard a bang. By the time I checked things around the house to her specifications, she was back asleep and I was wide awake. Which means that I am functioning at the mental level of Mike Smith today.

Promise to be sharper tomorrow.

[DSafetyGuy]

This just makes me wonder if Rob Ryan will ever get hired again. Regarding the Saints' offense, Colston is about to be put out to pasture, but they have Stills and Cooks developing to replace him. Graham had a game where he was banged up, but his stats are not much out of line with his recent numbers. They also seems to have a talented group of backs to do what they want.

I didn't understand the hype around Carolina before the season. Benjamin has been better than I expected, but they don't really have that much around Cam Newton.

Lovie Smith is Lovie Smith. The Bucs' ceiling under him is good, but not great. He'll never have the offense to really be good and I don't know if his preferred defensive scheme (heavy Cover-2) will work as the NFL continues to shift toward being a pass-heavy league.

Mike Smith is a dead man walking.

[L-Jam3]

Updated total DVOA through Week 12:

AFCN:
4. BAL, 22.4%
13. PIT, 6.8%
15. CIN, 0.8%
19. CLE, -3.7%

NFCS
18. NO, 0.9%
20. ATL, -6.5%
29. CAR, -19.7%
32. TB, -31.3%

Good lord that's a shitshow.

[brian]

OMG the sky is falling!

[degenerasian]

OMG the sky is falling!

bah

why don't they revamp the NBA or NHL playoffs and let 13 Western teams in?
Bronto! Write that article!

[brian]

I'm coming at this as a Lions fan too -- probably one of the most likely 10 or 11 win teams to be screwed if that does come to pass. But here's the thing. If you won 10 games and didn't make the playoffs then you should have won 11. The Lions could have taken advantage of the injuries to Cutler and Rodgers last year and won the NFCN with 9 wins and they didn't. C'est la vie.

[Gunpowder]

I don't want to revamp the system but I hate the "well you got screwed but you should have just been better!" attitude. You could say that Green Bay shouldn't have let Seattle hang around in the Fail Mary game but they still got fucked in the dickhole.

[brian]

I don't want to revamp the system but I hate the "well you got screwed but you should have just been better!" attitude. You could say that Green Bay shouldn't have let Seattle hang around in the Fail Mary game but they still got fucked in the dickhole.

Not the best comparison though. The system is the system and everyone knows it going into the season. If they changed it midway through the season that would be another story.