NFL Week 16

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:14 pm

As far as I can see, this is his first really bad year. Until this season, I kind of had him bunched with guys like Flacco and Smith. Not in terms of style, but in terms of quality.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:24 pm

Pruitt wrote:As far as I can see, this is his first really bad year. Until this season, I kind of had him bunched with guys like Flacco and Smith. Not in terms of style, but in terms of quality.

If you break down the stats like Bill Barnwell does here, he hasn't even really been THAT bad (relative to his past performance). He's basically a league average QB and more or less has been. That's not to say you can't win with a guy like that, but you have to put him in right position or squeak into the playoffs and get lucky for a three/four game stretch like Baltimore did with Flacco.

I'm following this pretty closely because frankly I'm kinda worried Matthew Stafford is heading down the same road. Of course, if you assume Stafford is league-average that's still the best QB the Lions have had in 45 or so years. But the issue with having a guy like that is who do you expect to replace with him if you cut bait. You either need to get really lucky on a draft pick or hope some moronic front office decides to get rid of an undervalued asset like San Diego did with Brees.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:29 pm

I think Cutler is more of a Drew Bledsoe. Great arm, tough but always his offensive line's and coordinator's fault. And a former Bill, Pruit!

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:32 pm

mister d wrote:Aside from being diabetic, which is obviously annoying, what has Cutler ever done? Not defending him, I just can't remember any incidents beyond "looks aloof".

Help spread measles?

Post by **Shirley** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:46 pm

brian wrote:Jimmy Clausen ought to be a big improvement on Jay Cutler when this happens.

Nice work by #75 there. Missed two separate pass rushers and then just went ahead and finished off Cutler himself.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:50 pm

brian wrote:
Pruitt wrote:As far as I can see, this is his first really bad year. Until this season, I kind of had him bunched with guys like Flacco and Smith. Not in terms of style, but in terms of quality.
If you break down the stats like Bill Barnwell does here, he hasn't even really been THAT bad (relative to his past performance). He's basically a league average QB and more or less has been. That's not to say you can't win with a guy like that, but you have to put him in right position or squeak into the playoffs and get lucky for a three/four game stretch like Baltimore did with Flacco.

I'm following this pretty closely because frankly I'm kinda worried Matthew Stafford is heading down the same road. Of course, if you assume Stafford is league-average that's still the best QB the Lions have had in 45 or so years. But the issue with having a guy like that is who do you expect to replace with him if you cut bait. You either need to get really lucky on a draft pick or hope some moronic front office decides to get rid of an undervalued asset like San Diego did with Brees.

This is the Alex Smith situation.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:55 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:
This is the Alex Smith situation.

Correct, exactly. I almost mentioned him in that same tier.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:15 pm

brian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:
This is the Alex Smith situation.
Correct, exactly. I almost mentioned him in that same tier.

I think you can argue that from a mass perception standpoint, it's worse to be in this tier than it is to be a bad quarterback.

If you're bad, you're either being replaced or the quarterback of an eminently forgettable football team. Everyone accepts that you're bad, and unless you're historically bad, you're forgotten, we move on and that's that.

If you're in this tier, not only do you have to deal with the questions as to why you're not ELITE and it lingers, because while you're good enough to be a starter for a significant term in the league, you're recognized more for what you haven't done than what you have. And it continues because you're not easily replaceable.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:32 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:If you're in this tier, not only do you have to deal with the questions as to why you're not ELITE and it lingers, because while you're good enough to be a starter for a significant term in the league, you're recognized more for what you haven't done than what you have. And it continues because you're not easily replaceable.

Totally. And it's worse for guys like Smith, Stafford and (to a much lesser extent since he's won two SBs) Eli Manning who were No. 1 overall picks. Cam Newton may very well end up in this tier before it's all said and done as well. But I totally agree.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:16 pm

It's the dalton situation too. It is the majority of NFL qb'ing situations. Matt Ryan gets a lot of love, but it really is matt ryan too.

Other than usual suspects, there are a lot of average qbs. Which makes sense, as unlike Lake Woebegone, not everyone can be above average.

I would only see someone dealing for Cutler if they truly have below average qb play, and don't want to fuck around with waiting on a rookie (drafting, hoping they drafted right, developing, etc.).

There are not a lot of teams with below average qbs who have talent enough elsewhere that an average qb might make a playoff level difference.

But Houston and Buffalo are two spots where it might make sense.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:17 pm

I think Alex Smith is in a tier to himself.

I think he's the only "game manager" QB properly recognized as such by most observers. He's consistent as hell, and he's paid arguably market value for that ($5-10 mil less than Cutler and Flacco).

Alex Smith refuses to throw more than 7 yards downfield (people keep bashing his WRs...weird that Crabtree was a bust in SF until the second Smith left) and no one says "why isn't Alex Smith performing to his capabilities".

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:18 pm

tennbengal wrote:It's the dalton situation too. It is the majority of NFL qb'ing situations. Matt Ryan gets a lot of love, but it really is matt ryan too.

Other than usual suspects, there are a lot of average qbs. Which makes sense, as unlike Lake Woebegone, not everyone can be above average.

I would only see someone dealing for Cutler if they truly have below average qb play, and don't want to fuck around with waiting on a rookie (drafting, hoping they drafted right, developing, etc.).

There are not a lot of teams with below average qbs who have talent enough elsewhere that an average qb might make a playoff level difference.

But Houston and Buffalo are two spots where it might make sense.

RAMS

Jay Cutler was born to be a 2015 Ram. Forcing passes to shitty WRs with a defense to clean up the mess. The Rams have a one year wide open window, and it's 2015. After that some guys will start getting old (Chris Long) or paid (everyone else). Basically I think the 2015 Rams are the 2013 Seahawks without the QB to go with it.

Trade for Cutler and draft Kevin White and I think they have a SB shot.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 3:30 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
tennbengal wrote:It's the dalton situation too. It is the majority of NFL qb'ing situations. Matt Ryan gets a lot of love, but it really is matt ryan too.

Other than usual suspects, there are a lot of average qbs. Which makes sense, as unlike Lake Woebegone, not everyone can be above average.

I would only see someone dealing for Cutler if they truly have below average qb play, and don't want to fuck around with waiting on a rookie (drafting, hoping they drafted right, developing, etc.).

There are not a lot of teams with below average qbs who have talent enough elsewhere that an average qb might make a playoff level difference.

But Houston and Buffalo are two spots where it might make sense.

RAMS

Jay Cutler was born to be a 2015 Ram. Forcing passes to shitty WRs with a defense to clean up the mess. The Rams have a one year wide open window, and it's 2015. After that some guys will start getting old (Chris Long) or paid (everyone else). Basically I think the 2015 Rams are the 2013 Seahawks without the QB to go with it.

Trade for Cutler and draft Kevin White and I think they have a SB shot.

Yeah, I agree, Rams makes sense too. .500, average qb play might yield them the two extra wins they need to get to 10 next year.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:07 pm

Gunpowder wrote:Also, is there anything to Josh McCown's random awesomeness under Trestman?

Exceptionally low INT rate (0.4). Faced defenses that finished 31st, 30th, 24th, 23rd, and 19th in pass yards allowed (three of those were among the worst six in pass TD allowed) and their opponents scored 20 points or more in every game McCown played. Completely random, but also played in two OT games.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:13 pm

Also known as the Bryan Hoyer Effect.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:23 pm

And on Cutler, because a few years ago I wrote a long post supporting him in one of the other iterations of the Swamp (in short, their entire offense was him and Forte at the time)...

Things Cutler does/has done that have been viewed negatively:
Got a sprained MCL in the 2010 NFC Championship Game where after the injury, he could stand on the sideline, yet not play, allowing people of all sorts (fans, media, other NFL players - Maurice Jones-Drew was the one player of note) question his manhood.
Throws ill-advised picks trying to make plays because he believes in his arm talent.
Has terrible mechanics that never improve over the long run.
Checks into bad play calls out of runs.
Yells at his offensive line.
Bumped one of his tackles (J'Marcus Webb) in the huddle for not looking at him when Cutler was yelling at him for being a turnstile.
Doesn't smile when things are going well.
Looks pouty, head down, slumped shoulders, and lots of other things from the "bad body language playbook."
Sits on the bench after things go wrong, doesn't look at pictures/Microsoft tablets or talk to coaches.
Has a wife who is anti-vaccination.

On a side note, Cutler has set personal bests in TD passes (I think he's one shy of the franchise single-season record) and QB rating this season. However, he has had a lot of opportunity for stat padding against prevent defenses.

Regarding him having diabetes, Cutler was honored by the Bears as their Man of the Year this year, which is in large part to his work with diabetes charities, and so he is a finalist for the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. The award was announced the day before he got benched.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:28 pm

He just needs some Winsulin

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:32 pm

That was stupid and I laughed.

boxcar · Post by **boxcar** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:37 pm

what amazes me, is in the long history of the bears, couldn't a case be made that jay cutler is the best QB in team history?

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:42 pm

boxcar wrote:what amazes me, is in the long history of the bears, couldn't a case be made that jay cutler is the best QB in team history?

Definitely. I can't think of a better one off the top of my head.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:43 pm

SID MOTHER LUCKMAN!

Half tongue in cheek. Cutler is a better QB, but Luckman is a HOF championship winning QB.

Post by **brian** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:45 pm

AB_skin_test wrote:SID MOTHER LUCKMAN!

Half tongue in cheek. Cutler is a better QB, but Luckman is a HOF championship winning QB.

Granted. But I don't think you can really call what was played in the 1930s "football" (except in name only).

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:48 pm

When Cutler was acquired, I immediately placed him as the third-best QB in franchise history behind Luckman and Jim McMahon. And all he had done for the team at that time was this:

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 4:49 pm

brian wrote:
AB_skin_test wrote:SID MOTHER LUCKMAN!

Half tongue in cheek. Cutler is a better QB, but Luckman is a HOF championship winning QB.
Granted. But I don't think you can really call what was played in the 1930s "football" (except in name only).

Yeah. Not the same game. If we put 2014 Jay Cutler in that game, well, he would probably suck quite a bit and a lot of receivers would have broken hands.

howard · Post by **howard** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 5:03 pm

I feel like someone should speak up for Bob Avellini here. But not me.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 6:50 pm

EdRomero wrote:I think Cutler is more of a Drew Bledsoe. Great arm, tough but always his offensive line's and coordinator's fault. And a former Bill, Pruit!

When Bledsoe arrived in Buffalo, it was as if Aaron Rodgers had arrived. THAT'S how bad the QB situation had been.

Bledsoe just may have been the slowest Quarterback I have ever seen. Three years in Buffalo, sacked 140 times, 35 fumbles, 43 ints... and he's still the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 9:34 pm

Pruitt wrote:
EdRomero wrote:I think Cutler is more of a Drew Bledsoe. Great arm, tough but always his offensive line's and coordinator's fault. And a former Bill, Pruit!
When Bledsoe arrived in Buffalo, it was as if Aaron Rodgers had arrived. THAT'S how bad the QB situation had been.

Bledsoe just may have been the slowest Quarterback I have ever seen. Three years in Buffalo, sacked 140 times, 35 fumbles, 43 ints... and he's still the best QB the Bills have had since Kelly.

Slow to make decisions too and that delay caused sacks, and hearing about Cutler's shitty offensive line reminded me of that. Sure, there's a lot of shitty offensive lines, but sometimes those lines miraculously improve when a new QB takes over.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:08 pm

So true. The same offensive line during the idiotic Flutie-Rob Johnson controversy back in the day in Buffalo. Flutie's sack percentages were 3.3%, 5.2% and 4.1%.

Johnson's are comical: 21.3%, 13.8% and 12.6%

Had time to look this up, because I watched about half of a quarter of the Titans-Jags game before realizing that it was hurting my brain.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:33 pm

Cutler's sack percentage in his final season in Denver was the lowest in the league.

He also posted the second-lowest sack rate of his career last season.

Joe K · Post by **Joe K** » Thu Dec 18, 2014 11:46 pm

According to Football Outsiders' rankings, the Bears' offensive line is #18 in pass blocking. Certainly not good, but not quite as bad as I expected. To go back to the earlier discussion about Kaepernick, the 49ers' line is ranked #31 in pass protection. That supports my impression, based on watching a bunch of 49ers games, that Kaepernick isn't "regressing" so much as he's running for his life this season due to poor line play. (Jonathan Martin has been particularly brutal at RT.) FWIW, the only team currently in the playoffs ranked in the bottom-third of Football Outsiders' pass protection rankings is Seattle (#28). The Lions are second-to-last among current playoff teams at #20.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 12:00 am

The Lions bring up an interesting angle about sacks and pass blocking. This year the offensive line personnel is largely the same, with three young players having a vital extra year of experience. They've had more injuries, but they haven't been decimated. Until last week, they had lost no starter for the season -- and the season is almost over. Stafford has more experience so he should be a better decision-maker, and his excellent group of receivers are both more talented and less injured than last season. The team is far more successful.

Yet I believe that the offensive line had a much better rating last year, and Stafford had a cleaner uniform.

What gives? Could be the OL injuries. But I think at least an equal factor is that they changed coaches. The new head coach and coordinator want to throw downfield more, and reduce turnovers. So plays take longer to develop this year. And Stafford is probably being coached to be more willing to hold the ball rather than throw it up for grabs. So turnovers are down and sacks are up.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:01 am

I shouldn't have focused just on sacks with Cutler's offensive line getting blamed for his struggles. A bad offensive line is blamed for QB's forced decisions, inaccurate throws, QBs being shell shocked, and so on. Better QBs, along with better coaching adjustments, will make an offensive line look better.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:04 am

Reading Barnwell's piece and he says Cutler gets pressured on 22% of dropbacks, which is 7yh lowest rate in league. The offensive line isn't the problem. I'd be surprised if Clausen is any better at all. THis is a weird weird move. Never would have happened if his name was Eli Manning.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:43 am

This isn't weird at all. You can't trade torn ACL Jay Cutler.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:45 am

Gunpowder wrote:This isn't weird at all. You can't trade torn ACL Jay Cutler.

Yeah, later in the article he mentioned the injury angle.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 8:48 am

Plus, why win? There is nothing to gain from winning more games right now. This allows them to tank under a somewhat defensible guise.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:43 am

And with word coming out that players on the team found out Cutler was demoted via twitter or by the co-hosts of their radio show, it is apparent that Trestman is done. May as well aim low and play for draft position for the new coach and possibly the new GM.

I like what Emery has done, but if you are cleaning house on the coaching staff and don't can the GM, you enter that world where if things go less than great next year, you can Emery and the new GM will be working with a coach he didn't hire. Reports about Emery's silence during the "Kromer ripping Cutler as an anonymous source and apology" thing being because he was so pissed could separate him from the coaching staff, but he hired them, so....

Ah, there's the word to follow "so".

So fucked.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:47 am

Just thought this. Last nights game must have had zero juice. It's quarter to 11 here on the east coast, and I have absolutely no idea who won.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:49 am

L-Jam3 wrote:Just thought this. Last nights game must have had zero juice. It's quarter to 11 here on the east coast, and I have absolutely no idea who won.

Tennessee vs Jacksonville. I'm sure both coaching staffs were confused why Nantz and Simms were talking to them in the TV production meetings instead of the normal stiffs.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Fri Dec 19, 2014 10:51 am

And come to think of it, what is this year's race to the #1 pick called? Lose a lotta for Mariotta?

It's going to be hard to top 2011's.