Since the other threads are unreadable...Carroll and/or OC

[brian]

10 percent sounds ABOUT right to my semi-mathematically inclined brain. I assume the chances of winning the game in regulation are a hair above 0, so most scenarios account for OT in the win percentage. You have to move 45-50 ish yards in 50 seconds with two(?) TOs. If you assume you're going to be successful at that about 25 percent of the time and OT is a coin flip at that point, it's in the ballpark.

[Brontoburglar]

10 percent sounds ABOUT right to my semi-mathematically inclined brain. I assume the chances of winning the game in regulation are a hair above 0, so most scenarios account for OT in the win percentage. You have to move 45-50 ish yards in 50 seconds with two(?) TOs. If you assume you're going to be successful at that about 25 percent of the time and OT is a coin flip at that point, it's in the ballpark.

I ran the drive finder on PFR and from 2005-2014, teams have had the ball 30 times with less than a minute left down 3 following a kickoff in the fourth quarter. One team has kicked a FG.

Granted, that's skewed as I can set less than a minute but I can't set a more than value as well, but 10% seems right off one run. I'm going to keep playing around with it.

[brian]

I think you're being a little too exact in the query because there's a lot of times a team will take over after a punt in a similar situation, but the win percentages are the same (i.e. it doesn't matter whether you get a KO or a punt or a turnover -- the important thing is you're starting a possession down 3 points from your own 20 +/- about 5 yards and there's less than a minute left.

ETA: To be even more exact, needs to be a way to specify time left. Obviously 50 seconds is much better than 10 seconds, etc.

[P.D.X.]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-h ... e-carroll/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Brontoburglar]

I think you're being a little too exact in the query because there's a lot of times a team will take over after a punt in a similar situation, but the win percentages are the same (i.e. it doesn't matter whether you get a KO or a punt or a turnover -- the important thing is you're starting a possession down 3 points from your own 20 +/- about 5 yards and there's less than a minute left.

ETA: To be even more exact, needs to be a way to specify time left. Obviously 50 seconds is much better than 10 seconds, etc.

Oh, I know -- but I wanted the situation right (and wanted to see how often it happens, which is clearly not often at all).

But yeah, the minimum time left is very important.

[DaveInSeattle]

Not that I am asking DiS to describe his feelings - but I cannot imagine how I would have reacted had that been the Bengals. Either white hot rage or a swearing off football and fandom altogether would probably be at the top of the menu.

How am I feeling? Gutted...

That decision makes zero sense. The thing about the Hawks is they are always saying "this is what we do, try to stop us". That slant route there is not them, at all.

Just hand the ball to Marshawn 3 times, win the damn game, and send those obnoxious Pats fans home to jerk off to their Brady posters.

Having only one time out makes that unlikely, but the fade, play action or having Wilson roll out with a run/pass option are the only passing plays they should have considered. Any chance the play call was a run and Wilson audibled?

Nope....every one agrees that was the play call.

What is really stupid is Carroll saying they were trying to "waste the play", likely because they were worried about leaving too much time on the clock. Stupid, stupid, stupid....

[mister d]

I'm sort of curious about how this would be going if the QB were Cutler. Would it still be 100% coach's fault or would it be closer to "its a bad call but your QB cannot put the ball where a defender has a play".

[DC47]

I didn't think it was all that bad a play call. Wilson's getting off easy. And Browner and Butler did something great. But I suppose opinions vary.

[Joe K]

I'm sort of curious about how this would be going if the QB were Cutler. Would it still be 100% coach's fault or would it be closer to "its a bad call but your QB cannot put the ball where a defender has a play".

On this point, one of my co-workers is a former D-I QB and backup in the NFL, and he was saying today that Wilson made a bad throw. The way he explained it is that when you're at the goal line, you don't want to lead the receiver on a slant for the exact reason that it gives the defenders a possible play on the ball. Instead, you should gun the pass directly into the receiver's body so that the defender has no chance at making a play on the ball without going through the receiver.

[DC47]

Exactly. A good ball is one where it's into the body, and low. Ideally, the receiver should be able to catch the ball as he collapses to the ground.

This doesn't mean it was a great call. But while I am not going to read any accounts of the game, I get the impression it's all about the play call and those who made it. That wasn't my first impression. It looked to me that one side executed a lot better than the other.

[Gunpowder]

I'm sort of curious about how this would be going if the QB were Cutler. Would it still be 100% coach's fault or would it be closer to "its a bad call but your QB cannot put the ball where a defender has a play".

If it were Peyton Manning it would be his magnum chokus.

[L-Jam3]

I've been silent because I wanted to take a more reasoned approach. I think throwing on Down 2 with 1 TO left was the right call, as if it failed, it still would have given the run/pass choice available for Downs 3 and 4. Secondly, I really don't think the play call itself was that bad. Take a look at this shot, right before Wilson's throw:



That really could not have been set up any better. I attribute it more to an imperfect throw by Wilson, and an absolutely phenomenal play by Butler. They just got beat by an amazing reaction. Nothing here for me to see that Carroll needs to defend his position.

[Gunpowder]

It's a blind throw where the most likely way to lose is to throw a pick and if you were worried about time running off, best non-TD result is that you burn like 3 seconds.

Blind pre-read slants killed Arizona, Indy and now Seattle. I hate the play call in large part because I hate the play.

[Gunpowder]

"The most likely way to lose here is to get picked off so we're gonna read the defense pre-snap and then I'm just gonna throw it to this guy no matter what, on 2 ready break"

[Giff]

I think i threw a pick every time I made that pass on Madden.

[DC47]

That really could not have been set up any better. I attribute it more to an imperfect throw by Wilson, and an absolutely phenomenal play by Butler. They just got beat by an amazing reaction. Nothing here for me to see that Carroll needs to defend his position.

The throw was one step too slow and two feet high. The defenders played it well.

A better play? In that formation, I'd nominate rolling right with Lynch as the lead blocker. You have two receivers one-on-one. One runs a fade to the corner, the other runs along the goal line. Throw it to the more open receiver in such a way that only he has a shot at the ball, or run at the pylon, or throw it away. All good options.

This avoids throwing into the strength of the defensive formation, throwing over the top of linemen with a 5'11" QB, trying to have your first receiver push Browner back on the pick even though he probably knows the play and is the strongest cornerback in the league.

[howard]

The throw was one step too slow…

I think he did not have a passing lane. Tackle blocking on the end was in his way to throw earlier, but I'm not positive he was ready to throw sooner.

In the vein of outsmarting themselves, I think calling a pick-play is part of the equation. (And having it blown up by Browner jamming Kearse at the line.) Especially after the success of using the umpire as a pick on the earlier touchdown.

[mister d]

And with the potential downside of getting flagged for the pick.

[tennbengal]

All good points. IF you are going to throw it there, still befuddled how you don't roll out Wilson, give him two targets, with option of throwing it away or heading for the pylon. I agree with SL that pass into a crowd is unnecessarily fraught with danger. Plus, given the congestion, even if Butler doesn't pick it, a good chance that ball might get tipped, with the entire pats d pretty much in the area if that occurred.

Butler did make a helluva play in any event.

[DC47]

The throw was one step too slow…

I think he did not have a passing lane. Tackle blocking on the end was in his way to throw earlier, but I'm not positive he was ready to throw sooner.

I'm not sure either. But the odds of not having a throwing lane would seem to be significant if you have a QB who is under six-feet.

In the vein of outsmarting themselves, I think calling a pick-play is part of the equation. (And having it blown up by Browner jamming Kearse at the line.) Especially after the success of using the umpire as a pick on the earlier touchdown.

I'm sure that Browner was amused when he realized that they were going to try to run a pick on him. Which was probably around the time the offense was coming to a set position, given that he knew their plays.

Still, it was a brilliant play by the undrafted rookie from Some JC In A Place Where No One Lives and North Nowhere State. A lot of players in his position wouldn't realize that tacking the receiver for a short gain would not actually be the way to succeed in this situation. I guess you can attribute most of this savvy to being around Brady all year though.

[tennbengal]

The throw was one step too slow…

I guess you can attribute most of this savvy to being around Brady all year though.

Also...the cheating...

[howard]

Worse than this playcall?

Soviet hockey coach pulling Tretiak in 1980 Olympics vs USA? That's my nominee.

[degenerasian]

Worse than this playcall?

Soviet hockey coach pulling Tretiak in 1980 Olympics vs USA? That's my nominee.

You can thank Canada for that! The Canadians played the Soviets tough 2 days prior and narrowly lost 6-4. Tretiak was shit in that game so the seed was already planted in Tihkonov's head.

[DC47]

The throw was one step too slow…

I guess you can attribute most of this savvy to being around Brady all year though.

Also...the cheating...

Has it come out yet that Brady deflated Malcolm Butler?

[DC47]

Worse than this playcall?

Soviet hockey coach pulling Tretiak in 1980 Olympics vs USA? That's my nominee.

I'm going with the Titanic captain calling for a dive up the middle.

[tennbengal]

The throw was one step too slow…

I guess you can attribute most of this savvy to being around Brady all year though.

Also...the cheating...

Has it come out yet that Brady deflated Malcolm Butler?

He inflated him, duh. Brady's an evil goat-loving genius.