MLB August 2015

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:23 pm

OH SHIT DEGEN HOWS SECOND PLACE TASTE YEEEAAAHHH!!!!!!!

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:26 pm

howard · Post by **howard** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:51 pm

Pitching to Tulo there with an open base was just fucking wrong.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:19 pm

Can't blame Miller, he walked the previous guy on a 1 ball, 4 strike count.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:19 am

The guy on deck was just gooder Tulo. Nowhere to hide for a lefty against their 1-4.

howard · Post by **howard** » Sat Aug 15, 2015 10:32 am

I suppose. I've been scarred by Tulo many times, hence my bias.

Post by **brian** » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:17 pm

If the Royals somehow win the World Series this year Ned Yost automatically becomes the worst manager to ever win a championship.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:35 pm

brian wrote:If the Royals somehow win the World Series this year Ned Yost automatically becomes the worst manager to ever win a championship.

Worse than Bob Brenly?

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:53 pm

Yogi Berra was said to be such a bad manager that, despite his stature as a beloved legend, the Yankees dumped him after a seventh game loss in the '64 World Series. That's not exactly a tragic first season outcome for a manager. But Yost has to be right there with him. He does some strange things. Things that might have been strange even in 1964, before managers figured out some new things about game tactics.

Still, despite Yost, the Royals win. Historically great defense and relief pitching, along with a decent starting rotation, hitters, and some speed -- this kind of talent can make a manager a genius. The Royals were very good last year, and got a lot better in the off-season. A much bigger payroll allowed them to sign Kendry Morales, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Hochevar, Madson, Franklin, and Medlen, all of whom are free agency wins (the first three are big ones), as well as a few others (Rios in particular) who have done less so far. That is a remarkable haul, especially given that they didn't spend big on any single player.

Now the Royals GM is taking advantage of their bump in revenues from both last fall and this season, and dropping the early Christmas gifts of Cueto and Zobrist into Yost's lap. His managerial genius just went up that much more, and will go up some more when Gordon returns to LF. Enough to get some more Manager of the Year votes most likely.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:18 am

"Somehow"

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 8:22 am

DC47 wrote:Yogi Berra was said to be such a bad manager that, despite his stature as a beloved legend, the Yankees dumped him after a seventh game loss in the '64 World Series. That's not exactly a tragic first season outcome for a manager. But Yost has to be right there with him. He does some strange things. Things that might have been strange even in 1964, before managers figured out some new things about game tactics.

Still, despite Yost, the Royals win. Historically great defense and relief pitching, along with a decent starting rotation, hitters, and some speed -- this kind of talent can make a manager a genius. The Royals were very good last year, and got a lot better in the off-season. A much bigger payroll allowed them to sign Kendry Morales, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young, Hochevar, Madson, Franklin, and Medlen, all of whom are free agency wins (the first three are big ones), as well as a few others (Rios in particular) who have done less so far. That is a remarkable haul, especially given that they didn't spend big on any single player.

Now the Royals GM is taking advantage of their bump in revenues from both last fall and this season, and dropping the early Christmas gifts of Cueto and Zobrist into Yost's lap. His managerial genius just went up that much more, and will go up some more when Gordon returns to LF. Enough to get some more Manager of the Year votes most likely.

Hochevar was arbitration eligible. And also important to note that the Royals $20 million increase in opening day payroll from 2014-2015 was largely because of arbitration increases rather than free agent signings.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:52 pm

Did Paul Molitor just challenge a trap call in which the Twins got a force out anyway*? Yes, yes he did.

* because everyone in the building except Angel Hernandez knew it was actually a catch.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:53 pm

And if you're wondering, it was the difference between having Alex on first or Tex. I'd pay to see that foot race.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:24 pm

With the game tied in the bottom of the tenth, bases loaded and nobody out, did Eduardo Nunez try to get the out at first? Yes, yes he did.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:58 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Hochevar was arbitration eligible. And also important to note that the Royals $20 million increase in opening day payroll from 2014-2015 was largely because of arbitration increases rather than free agent signings.

Below, what is Jon Heyman missing about this situation?

"The Royals, who rode an all-time great bullpen all the way to the World Series, are enhancing that strength by re-signing free agent righthander Luke Hochevar, who missed the 2014 season after a brilliant 2013 campaign."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon ... s-best-pen

The Royals boosted payroll by about $20M from opening day 2014 to opening day 2015. That's a substantial increase as the base was $92M. They Royals spent about $70M in free agency over the winter. Roughly $40M was for 2015. That seems like a very large percentage of payroll. Were arb increases anywhere close to this?

Nine free-agent signings (including Blanton, signed out of retirement) have made at least a dent on the Royals roster. That includes their top starting pitcher (Volquez) and one of their top hitters (Kendrys Morales). That's a substantial contribution by the 2015 free agent class. I wonder if any team got more value in the off-season?

The Royals have gotten significant improvement from returning players (e.g. Hosmer, Cain, Duffy). But I think a lot of their success this season has to do with what the GM did in free agency and recently with adding two stars in deadline deals. The rest of the division just didn't have the talent to keep pace, even before adding Zobrist and Cueto.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:45 am

That $40MM bought them 8 players who have contributed a total of 4.4 fWAR this season. That's almost exactly the prorated amount they lost in Shields and Aoki (~4.2) for 2014 and 1.4 greater than Aoki and Shields to date in 2015. If you average Shields' deal rather than take the annual dollars, those two cost just under $23MM this year.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:52 am

Rex wrote:With the game tied in the bottom of the tenth, bases loaded and nobody out, did Eduardo Nunez try to get the out at first? Yes, yes he did.

You had me excited to watch that until I saw what actually happened. Bet the pitcher is happy for the earned run.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:41 am

The challenge just to replace a slow guy on the bases with another slow guy was much stranger. The last play was just Nunie doing Nunie things.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:01 am

The only thing I can think is that Molitor thought they'd get a double play with Rodriguez "not tagging up" or something. It was very weird.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:07 am

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:25 am

Apologies if this is a duplicate, but here's another, from Joe Poz:

So, I wrote about Zack Greinke for like the 11 millionth time. Whew, I’ve been writing about Greinke for a dozen years, going back to when he was 19 years old. I relate the first time I ever interviewed him. Fun stuff.

There is another Greinke story I wasn’t able to get into the piece, one I think I’ve told before but I’m not sure. It doesn’t really have much to do with anything except, well, it’s just a perfect little Greinke story. In 2007, the Kansas City Royals called up Alex Gordon. At the time, you might remember, Gordon was a serious phenom that year, in the same category as, say, Kris Bryant before this season began. In fact, I’m pretty sure Gordon was the first player in Baseball America history to be named minor league player of the year just one year after being named amateur player of the year.

In any case, Gordon came up to the most extreme expectations and he struggled. Man, did he struggle. Gordon has always had this detached nature which suggests he doesn’t feel pressure, and he carried himself quietly through the worst of it. But underneath it all, I think it was just too much for him. His swing even now has a hole in it — it’s something he simply has to overcome and it’s a daily struggle –and in those early days pitchers just ate him up. The poor guy was hitting .173 in early June, and he’d struck out 55 times in 53 games, and he was taking it out to the field, and even though he still carried himself in that placid and even-tempered way that now marks him as one of the better players in baseball, you could tell: He was seriously lost.

And then, at his low point, Zack Greinke came up to him.

“Alex,” he said, and he pointed to the video room. “Follow me. I want to show you something.”

Greinke’s teammates will tell you: The guy’s kind of a baseball savant. He is known for calling just how hard he will throw his curveball the next inning (“I’m going to try for 50 mph”). He sees things nobody else seems to see. Not too long ago, I was talking with Brandon McCarthy, who is one of the smartest guys in baseball himself, and he said that the coolest thing he can imagine doing is sitting next to Greinke during a game and just picking his mind, view the game through Zack’s eyes. Others have said the same. He will probably stay in baseball after he’s done.

So Gordon was pretty excited when Greinke called him into the video room. He figured that Greinke must have found something in his swing, something small, some little flaw that he could fix and it would turn his entire season around. He followed Greinke to to the monitor. Greinke turned it on.

The video was … yep: Zack Greinke hitting a home run. Greinke watched it lovingly and then turned back to Gordon.

“Do more of that,” Zack said.

BSF21 · Post by **BSF21** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 11:30 am

That is fantastic.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 4:06 pm

DC47 wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:Hochevar was arbitration eligible. And also important to note that the Royals $20 million increase in opening day payroll from 2014-2015 was largely because of arbitration increases rather than free agent signings.
Below, what is Jon Heyman missing about this situation?

"The Royals, who rode an all-time great bullpen all the way to the World Series, are enhancing that strength by re-signing free agent righthander Luke Hochevar, who missed the 2014 season after a brilliant 2013 campaign."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon ... s-best-pen

The contract bought out arbitration as he's making less than he did in 2014 when he missed the season and will make slightly more than he did in 2014 in 2016.

The Royals boosted payroll by about $20M from opening day 2014 to opening day 2015. That's a substantial increase as the base was $92M. They Royals spent about $70M in free agency over the winter. Roughly $40M was for 2015. That seems like a very large percentage of payroll. Were arb increases anywhere close to this?

Nine free-agent signings (including Blanton, signed out of retirement) have made at least a dent on the Royals roster. That includes their top starting pitcher (Volquez) and one of their top hitters (Kendrys Morales). That's a substantial contribution by the 2015 free agent class. I wonder if any team got more value in the off-season?

The Royals have gotten significant improvement from returning players (e.g. Hosmer, Cain, Duffy). But I think a lot of their success this season has to do with what the GM did in free agency and recently with adding two stars in deadline deals. The rest of the division just didn't have the talent to keep pace, even before adding Zobrist and Cueto.

mister d wrote:That $40MM bought them 8 players who have contributed a total of 4.4 fWAR this season. That's almost exactly the prorated amount they lost in Shields and Aoki (~4.2) for 2014 and 1.4 greater than Aoki and Shields to date in 2015. If you average Shields' deal rather than take the annual dollars, those two cost just under $23MM this year.

Players who the Royals let walk after 2014 and their salaries:

James Shields, $13.5M
Nori Aoki $1.95M
Billy Butler $8M

Total: $23.45M

Players who the Royals signed for 2015

Edinson Volquez $7.5M
Kendrys Morales $6.5M
Alex Rios $9.5M

Total: $23.5M

So, similar to what Mr. D said. The salaries of the returning players in the starting lineup increased a total of $13.045M. The salaries of HDH went up $6.78M.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 7:08 pm

Yeah, injuries are part of the game. And the Giants have had good injury luck in their three WS runs, with great fill-ins when dudes did go down. And you don't hear the Cardinals fans bitching about injuries. And other teams, like the Marlins, have more reason to bitch.

But come on. Pence started the year with six weeks on the DL, Pagan, Aoki and Panik currently DL'd, Belt with his annual injury (but it was only a week). Five of the nine starters have been on the DL, including currently Hudson, Timmy and Leake, who pitched once after being traded from the Reds.

Now, Pence hurt again, getting an MRI tomorrow, for an oblique. If you need an MRI, I'll bet on it being significant to miss at least a week. And that is my last straw.

Not looking for sympathy, cause that would be lame as well as fruitless. Just trying not to scream.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:08 pm

Didnt even know you watched baseball in odd years.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:16 pm

mister d wrote:That $40MM bought them 8 players who have contributed a total of 4.4 fWAR this season. That's almost exactly the prorated amount they lost in Shields and Aoki (~4.2) for 2014 and 1.4 greater than Aoki and Shields to date in 2015. If you average Shields' deal rather than take the annual dollars, those two cost just under $23MM this year.

Based on your link, I wonder if you're missing Madson and Morales, as well as Blanton, who was signed out of retirement?

My count is that the Royals have gotten 6.7 WAR (per Baseball Reference) from their free agents. I count 10, not including Hochevar due to the discrepancy between Heyman and Bronto as to his free agency status. The departing free agents (Shields, Butler, Aoki) have a total of 1.1 WAR, all earned in the weaker National League. The off-season upgrade is substantial. One of the several smart things about the Royals off-season was not getting into long, expensive deals. So the Royals are not getting WAR in 2015 from players who are going to kill them in future years.

Averaging the total cost of Shields' deal over its duration would ignore reality. The implied value of older players' deals is always much higher in the early years.

I'm curious as to why you are including Shields and Aoki in your analysis but not Butler? These are the three most important players the Royals lost. Butler got $30M for 3 years as I recall. So far he has produced -1.5 WAR.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:27 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Players who the Royals let walk after 2014 and their salaries:

James Shields, $13.5M
Nori Aoki $1.95M
Billy Butler $8M

Total: $23.45M

Players who the Royals signed for 2015

Edinson Volquez $7.5M
Kendrys Morales $6.5M
Alex Rios $9.5M

Total: $23.5M

So, similar to what Mr. D said. The salaries of the returning players in the starting lineup increased a total of $13.045M. The salaries of HDH went up $6.78M.

I understand your position that is contrary to that of Jon Heyman and Baseball Reference on Hochevar's free agent deal. But why are you leaving out the other players the Royals signed for 2015? They would be: Blanton, Pino, Morales, Medlen, Madson, Fraser, Young?

You are also using the simple cash payments to the players. On two year deals it is far more reasonable to divide the total money that's guaranteed by two. That would mean $29.5M for the three players you show above, without including any part of their guaranteed buy-outs for subsequent years ($6M)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:29 pm

I legitimately forgot about Butler (perhaps because I was looking in the wrong league). I averaged Shields to *increase* his salary this year and reflect his true deal. It's staggered as 10/21/21/21+2.5. Calling him $10MM would have felt disingenuous. And Bronto mentioned Morales.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:36 pm

Sorry I wasn't more clear on 'Morales.' There are two who were signed in the off-season. Kendrys and relief pitcher Franklin, who has a 0.9 WAR for 2015 and makes $1.850M.

I agree that the cash cost of $10M is obviously not the right approach to Shields' pay. How much of his deal are you attributing to 2015?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:46 pm

I took the NHL average. It wasn't overly scientific.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:47 pm

Dombrowski in Boston is reeeeeeeally interesting given his predilection for big names and unconventional trade targets.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:15 pm

degenerasian wrote:Didnt even know you watched baseball in odd years.

It would probably be better if I didn't. But I even watch the postseason in odd years.

Post by **brian** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:25 pm

mister d wrote:Dombrowski in Boston is reeeeeeeally interesting given his predilection for big names and unconventional trade targets.

Yeah, some of that was driven by his payroll which is likely not going to be an issue in Boston either. Interesting is the perfect description.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:40 pm

Big score for Boston. Dombrowski is one of the best in baseball history.

I'll be interested in his compensation. With nothing anyone has said to support this, I think this was the most likely factor in his departure from Detroit. He was reported to make $3M per year, which is high for a baseball exec. I believe Andrew Friedman is said to have gotten $35M for 5 years. Only Beane, who is said to have equity in the team, may be in that ballpark. But even Friedman's deal is probably far less than the value added by Dombrowski.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:51 pm

With Pence hurt but not yet DL's, Giants have a short bench, with two slappies and the backup catcher. So Bumgarner pinch-hits in the 7th, when the pitcher's spot rolls around. And he singles.Giants nursing a 1-0 lead in St. Louis.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:57 pm

howard wrote:With Pence hurt but not yet DL's, Giants have a short bench, with two slappies and the backup catcher. So Bumgarner pinch-hits in the 7th, when the pitcher's spot rolls around. And he singles.Giants nursing a 1-0 lead in St. Louis.

that's not fair.

howard · Post by **howard** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:06 pm

Neither is a bench of Adrienza (.196) and Juan Perez (career .212) and backup catcher Susac.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Tue Aug 18, 2015 10:23 pm

howard wrote:...So Bumgarner pinch-hits in the 7th, when the pitcher's spot rolls around. And he singles.

And, scores!

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:58 am

DC47 wrote:Big score for Boston. Dombrowski is one of the best in baseball history.

6 playoff appearances is 26 seasons as GM.

Post by **brian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:10 am

mister d wrote:
DC47 wrote:Big score for Boston. Dombrowski is one of the best in baseball history.
6 playoff appearances is 26 seasons as GM.

...who continues to downplay the importance of sabermetrics.

He's obviously got a good track record in a lot of his deals, but I'm not too upset he's gone especially now that Avila is going to expand the analytics and scouting departments.