MLB August 2015

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:30 am

I don't think there's ever been a less analyzable GM. How much credit does he deserve for the talent in the Expos farm system versus scouts and that dept ... how do you judge a Florida tenure with a World Series win and then mediocre at best return on the fire sale ... how many of the awful contracts were Ilitch's insistence on overriding Dombrowski's better sense? Who knows.

Moreta · Post by **Moreta** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:42 am

mister d wrote:Dombrowski in Boston is reeeeeeeally interesting given his predilection for big names and unconventional trade targets.

I'm just glad my Boston fan coworker has to eat all the insults she's flung at Dombrowski in order to properly fawn at every decision the Red Sox organization makes.

Oh, and hello everyone.

Post by **brian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:46 am

Hey, welcome back!

And to Mr. D's point if you look solely at his trades which is one of the few parts of his tenure with Detroit at least that you can analyze (along with drafting)**, he's got an A-/B+ grade in my opinion*, so I'm not trying to crap on him. He took a 119-loss team and had them in the World Series in three years. It's hard to top that.

* - And in further agreeing with Mr. D, only a few GMs could make those deals, especially something like the Cabrera deal, knowing you're going to have to pay him when his controllable years are up. But the Tigers still got the better half of most of those deals.

** - Even this is harder than you would think when you consider Detroit was one of the few teams to pay over slot for a long time until MLB got that process into line. That's the only reason they ended up with Porcello. So I'm not even sure you can adequately grade him here. If you take out players they paid way over slot, the Tigers probably get a C for drafts under Dombrowski in my opinion.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:55 am

The Fister trade will never be un-weird to me.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:56 am

I guess since I'm taking the "not an all-time great" stance on Dombrowski, I should admit I *hated* the Cabrera trade for Detroit. So there's that.

Post by **brian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:07 am

The Fister trade hasn't been nearly the disaster it seemed like it was going to be at the time, but it's impossible to defend it in any case. Don't think too many people would agree with you regarding the Cabrera trade, at least since it can more or less fairly be evaluated by now. The only pieces that mattered were Maybin and Miller for Cabrera and without looking it up I'm assuming Cabrera is killing those guys in career WAR since the trade (not the only way to evaluate a trade of course but at least it's a way). I think you have to look at the ridiculous extension Dombrowski gave to Cabrera independent of that transaction.

And of course, one of the ironies of the trade if you're not a Marlins fan is that Maybin and Miller both essentially sucked for Miami and went on to be much better to varying degrees after moving on from there. Given Cabrera's contract if the Tigers could somehow trade Cabrera for Miller and Maybin I'd probably take it, but that doesn't make it a bad trade.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:08 am

Welcome back, Moreta.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:19 am

Oh yeah, I meant at the time. A 5 tool CF and a potential #1 lefty SP, ranked where they'd been ranked, is probably the biggest package in the last 20 years, right? Probably higher than the Teixeira trade was at the time. I thought it was completely insane.

Fister hasn't turned out as bad as it could have because of injury, but the complaint there is Dombrowski did a horrific job of maximizing his return.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:32 am

brian wrote: He took a 119-loss team and had them in the World Series in three years. It's hard to top that.

Challenge accepted.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:49 am

That 119 loss team was a tank before tanking was cool. Hasn't been a younger pitching staff since, and wasn't one that young before it since ... the post fire-sale Marlins. Directly led to Verlander, which doesn't hurt either.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:52 am

mister d wrote:I guess since I'm taking the "not an all-time great" stance on Dombrowski, I should admit I *hated* the Cabrera trade for Detroit. So there's that.

At the time, when Dombrowski tacked on the three-year extension for Willis a few days after the trade (he was under contract for 2008 and eligible to be a free agent after 2009, but they signed him through 2010), was that factored at all in your opinion on the trade itself? It seems to me that any people count that extension as part of the trade, but it wasn't.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:02 am

Willis the pitcher was the issue, not his contract (although I'm sure I hated that too). They were getting the version that was already sliding downhill because he was putting an insane number of runners on base and not striking anyone out. So I think my complaints were, in order, (1) you CAN'T trade Maybin AND Miller, (2) Willis isn't an asset but is being acquired as such, heading into the tougher league and (3) Miguel ... seems fat ... like I put him on the whole "fat 1Bs die young" list. I'm sure I made a Mo Vaughn comp because I make a lot of comps involving Mo Vaughn.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:42 am

DC47 wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:Players who the Royals let walk after 2014 and their salaries:

James Shields, $13.5M
Nori Aoki $1.95M
Billy Butler $8M

Total: $23.45M

Players who the Royals signed for 2015

Edinson Volquez $7.5M
Kendrys Morales $6.5M
Alex Rios $9.5M

Total: $23.5M

So, similar to what Mr. D said. The salaries of the returning players in the starting lineup increased a total of $13.045M. The salaries of HDH went up $6.78M.
I understand your position that is contrary to that of Jon Heyman and Baseball Reference on Hochevar's free agent deal. But why are you leaving out the other players the Royals signed for 2015? They would be: Blanton, Pino, Morales, Medlen, Madson, Fraser, Young?

You are also using the simple cash payments to the players. On two year deals it is far more reasonable to divide the total money that's guaranteed by two. That would mean $29.5M for the three players you show above, without including any part of their guaranteed buy-outs for subsequent years ($6M)

Wait, so I'm supposed to count players who were signed to minimal deals as roster filler? If you really want to...

Medlen $2M
F. Morales $1.85M
Young $675K

Pino and Blanton were signed to minor league deals. Frasor was on the team in 2014. That's $4MM in guaranteed money.

And if we're dividing by two, it's really not that much of an increase. Guthrie won't be on the books in 2016, so it's a wash. Really, you're overstating this significantly.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:13 pm

Greg Bird's swing is very aesthetically pleasing.

(Although I wonder if he's slightly open because his bat speed doesn't seem better than average and he's protecting the inside.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:21 pm

Eovaldi has a perfect game through 5 innings.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 1:28 pm

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:01 pm

brian wrote:
** - Even this is harder than you would think when you consider Detroit was one of the few teams to pay over slot for a long time until MLB got that process into line. That's the only reason they ended up with Porcello. So I'm not even sure you can adequately grade him here. If you take out players they paid way over slot, the Tigers probably get a C for drafts under Dombrowski in my opinion.

Fittingly, that ended once Boston complained about it.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:07 pm

Goldschmidt is such a boss.

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:09 pm

Sometimes I think Eovaldi is going to pull a Verlander where he is the best pitcher in the game for two years and then becomes average overnight.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:29 pm

A week ago I say he doesn't have the command or secondary stuff but then Klaw ranked his new splitter as best in the majors so who knows. I still can't get over the Pavano look.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 7:49 pm

Daniel Norris just hit a bomb.

Moreta · Post by **Moreta** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:03 pm

Lester did not shine tonight. Perhaps he's spent so much time practicing his throw to first he's forgotten how to effectively throw to the plate.

Post by **brian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:09 pm

Norris just the third P since 1941 to hit a HR in his first PA. Also the first AL pitcher to hit a home run at Wrigley. Ever.

howard · Post by **howard** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:41 pm

Juan Perez did this earlier tonight

[media]https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video/CMzyzlBUkAAPsCv.mp4[/media]

Post by **brian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:30 pm

Tigers bullpen blowing this game after Norris got hurt was hilariously inevitable.

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:44 pm

The Astros home unis are gorgeous.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:45 pm

brian wrote:Tigers bullpen blowing this game after Norris got hurt was hilariously inevitable.

you should be safe now.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:17 pm

mister d wrote:I don't think there's ever been a less analyzable GM. How much credit does he deserve for the talent in the Expos farm system versus scouts and that dept ... how do you judge a Florida tenure with a World Series win and then mediocre at best return on the fire sale ... how many of the awful contracts were Ilitch's insistence on overriding Dombrowski's better sense? Who knows.

I think Dombrowski is pretty easy to analyze. He's taken on three bad clubs, and each has won pretty quickly. That is a remarkable record. He'll go down as one of the greatest baseball executives in history.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:34 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:
DC47 wrote:Wait, so I'm supposed to count players who were signed to minimal deals as roster filler? If you really want to...

Medlen $2M
F. Morales $1.85M
Young $675K

Pino and Blanton were signed to minor league deals. Frasor was on the team in 2014. That's $4MM in guaranteed money.

And if we're dividing by two, it's really not that much of an increase. Guthrie won't be on the books in 2016, so it's a wash. Really, you're overstating this significantly.

I wouldn't call those guys roster filler. F. Morales and Young have been good. Medlen was recovering from surgery, so they knew he would only contribute late in the season, and in 2016 -- as he has.

Per Heyman and Baseball Reference, with some rounding:

- The Royals got a big financial boost (both directly and from increased revenue in 2015) from nearly winning the World Series last year, which allowed them to spend big (for them) and raise total payroll by $20M

- The Royals spent $40M for 2015 on ~10 players and got ~7 WAR for it to date.

- The players they let go haven't done nearly this much, and further the Shields and Butler contracts are horrible albatrosses.

- They paid up to add two stars at the deadline. That's astonishing for this franchise.

My simple conclusion is that the GM had a lot of nerve to turn over almost 50% of the roster, including letting their ace pitcher and two starting position players go, after coming very close to winning it all. He used the revenue boost from their success in a very astute way, that gave them stronger performance without binding them to long-term deals. No matter how the Royals do in the post-season, this has got to be seen as a brilliant set of moves by Dayton Moore and ownership. The talent level in KC has gone way up, both do to their roster moves and because they held onto players who have under-performed their potential in prior seasons (e.g., Hosmer, Moustakas).

As a Tigers fan I'm not pleased to see Kansas City doing so well. But they deserve applause for some tremendous front-office decision-making.

Yost still can't do tactics. He's their one major mistake. But who knows, maybe he works wonders with the players' psyches. I think Jim Leyland fit this mold, and he had tremendous success with two different clubs.

rass · Post by **rass** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:29 am

DC47 wrote:I think Jim Leyland fit this mold, and he had tremendous success with two different clubs.

And heart-rending success with a third.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:07 am

DC47 wrote:I think Dombrowski is pretty easy to analyze. He's taken on three bad clubs, and each has won pretty quickly. That is a remarkable record. He'll go down as one of the greatest baseball executives in history.

Montreal: Coming off 91 wins.

Florida: Brand new.

Detroit: He (smartly) bottomed them out and didn't win until year 5.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:29 am

I mean ... Jesus. Dombrowski took a 91 win Montreal team, led them to no higher than 3rd place and 86 wins, traded away Randy Johnson and Tim Raines, then walked away 17 games under .500 towards the end of the season. Two years later, they bounced back to 94 wins.

Post by **brian** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 7:48 am

Also, he's a Western grad. I never liked him.

One of those two statements isn't completely true.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:02 am

govmentchedda wrote:The Astros home unis are gorgeous.

They better never change their current unis.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:15 am

Giff wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:The Astros home unis are gorgeous.
They better never change their current unis.

So, just to be clear. You prefer these ones to the swirling rainbow unis of the 1970s?

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:11 am

sancarlos wrote:
Giff wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:The Astros home unis are gorgeous.
They better never change their current unis.
So, just to be clear. You prefer these ones to the swirling rainbow unis of the 1970s?

I like the rainbows for throwback day, but I'm with Giff. It's a gorgeous uni. The double color for the names and numbers is great. For a second, I thought that the numbers were bigger than most teams, then I realized I was looking at Altuve.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:37 pm

sancarlos wrote:
Giff wrote:
govmentchedda wrote:The Astros home unis are gorgeous.
They better never change their current unis.
So, just to be clear. You prefer these ones to the swirling rainbow unis of the 1970s?

Yeah, I don't really even recall wearing any Astros gear until they updated their uniforms in the 90s. I love going back to the original colors though.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 12:40 am

mister d wrote:
DC47 wrote:I think Dombrowski is pretty easy to analyze. He's taken on three bad clubs, and each has won pretty quickly. That is a remarkable record. He'll go down as one of the greatest baseball executives in history.
Montreal: Coming off 91 wins.

Florida: Brand new.

Detroit: He (smartly) bottomed them out and didn't win until year 5.

Montreal: 91 wins in '87 with a hollow, unsustainable team. That's why they made Dombrowski, only in his early 30s at the time, the GM. Despite working with little money, he rebuilt the franchise. He left four years later with the Expos loaded with young talent. Two years after that the team -- largely his players -- won 94 games. The next year they had the best record in baseball, but the season was sabotaged by the infamous strike.

Florida: I have to wonder if 'Brand new" is simply trolling? This is also known as "Expansion franchise." They're universally kind of bad. This one lost 98 games in year one. In year five, they won the World Series. I wonder if it's ever been done that fast, in any major sport?

Detroit: He rebuilt an empty organization remarkably quickly. Going from losing 119 games in 2003 to making the World Series just 3 years later is the stuff of legend. It wasn't like the 2003 Tigers were loaded with talented youngsters who just needed time. Since 2006 the Tigers have been very competitive. Dombrowski's deal making deserves most of the credit.

See a bit of a pattern here? Dombrowski takes over a team that needs to be re-built from the ground up, and 5 or 6 years later he produces a team that can contend for a championship. He's done it three times. Who else has done that?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:05 am

Montreal: "He rebuilt the franchise" is a pretty favorable way to refer to a roster that won two years after he left with only one key player (Alou) who you can say Dombrowski directly acquired. I can't think of any time a GM has been given top credit, let alone sole credit, for a team's drafting. No one says "Michael drafted/signed the Yankees 90s core", they say he was GM when those players were drafted/signed. Also, he traded away a top 5 all-time SP for a rental during a .500 season.

Florida: Starts the trend of "when he has a lot of money, things go pretty well". You must looooooove Cashman.

Detroit: Took a bad team and made the playoffs once in nine years. Was given a top 5 budget and consistently made the playoffs without a ring. Probably handicapped the roster for the next decade before heading to Boston.

Boston: Can't wait for him to get credit for "turning the Red Sox around" despite walking into a franchise as its starting to graduate a top ranked system to the majors. Go Dombrowski!

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 7:12 am