2015 NL Central playoffs (and NYM/LAD)

rass · Post by **rass** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:46 am

wheeeeeeeee

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:25 am

Sugartits Arrieta

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 10:49 am

Arrieta should've made a reference to the Giants/Buccos game of 2014/Brandon Crawford.

Post by **brian** » Mon Oct 05, 2015 12:06 pm

No offense to the Pirates, but I'm just hoping whoever wins that games beats the shit out of the Cardinals. If it's Arrieta and Cubs, so be it.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:51 am

There's a sense of resignation around these parts as everybody prepares to get Arrieta'd tomorrow night.

The Pirates finished with the second-best record in baseball, but nobody seemed to enjoy the season. I would have enjoyed it a lot more if I had followed the team casually instead of daily. Instead, I suffered thru Hurdle starting Pedro Florimon in a crucial game vs. the Cubs, Jung-Ho Kang's awful injury, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco doing whatever the fuck it is they do when they try to run the bases, etc. I don't know why I remember the bad stuff more than the good stuff. Am I this jaded already, now that the Pirates have been good for three whole years now? Is this what it's like to be a Yankees fan?

That said, I'm looking forward to the game. I enjoy watching Arrieta. I love late bloomers, and to see an average pitcher become quietly good at 28, then loudly great at 29, is a great story. I just hope that Gerrit Cole is a little better tomorrow night.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:04 am

bapo! wrote:Is this what it's like to be a Yankees fan?

Sometimes? Mostly the 2000s starting pitchers, excluding Mussina. Lots of guys easy to hate even on your team.

bapo! wrote:... Gerrit Cole ...

Oh. And sometimes it feels like that now too.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:22 am

I'm still not 100% on-board with Cole, but that has a lot to do with my unrealistic expectations. I want him to be on that Arrieta/Jose Fernandez level, where every start is a must-watch. I mean, it's not a crime to be merely very, very good.

Best thing I can say about Cole: I've seen him get hit hard in the first couple of innings of games this year, then settle in and pitch well thru 7 innings. He didn't do that last year. But if that happens tomorrow, that probably won't be good enough.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:25 am

"I want someone who makes me forget about John Smiley."

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:29 am

mister d wrote:"I want someone who makes me forget about John Smiley."

Okay, yes, I'm being ridiculous. Thanks for pointing that out. And hey, don't forget Doug Drabek!

(We've talked about this before, but it's amazing that a team with a history as long and storied as the Pirates has never had a great pitcher. Cole might be that guy.)

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:31 am

Babe Adams was awesome

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:39 am

bapo! wrote:There's a sense of resignation around these parts as everybody prepares to get Arrieta'd tomorrow night.

The Pirates finished with the second-best record in baseball, but nobody seemed to enjoy the season. I would have enjoyed it a lot more if I had followed the team casually instead of daily. Instead, I suffered thru Hurdle starting Pedro Florimon in a crucial game vs. the Cubs, Jung-Ho Kang's awful injury, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco doing whatever the fuck it is they do when they try to run the bases, etc. I don't know why I remember the bad stuff more than the good stuff. Am I this jaded already, now that the Pirates have been good for three whole years now? Is this what it's like to be a Yankees fan?

That said, I'm looking forward to the game. I enjoy watching Arrieta. I love late bloomers, and to see an average pitcher become quietly good at 28, then loudly great at 29, is a great story. I just hope that Gerrit Cole is a little better tomorrow night.

No matter how good a Cubs pitcher is during the regular season, he can still be counted on to issue seven walks in a playoff game. And the infield can be counted on for errors on successive plays.

The Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals make quite a matchup. Over the last two-thirds of the season, the Pirates and Cubs each went 68-40 and the Cards went 64-44. (Toronto was the only AL team better, at 69-39.) The Cubs' pythag was .590, and the Pirates and Cards were each .561.

This means, of course, that the Cardinals will win out again. Fuckers.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:40 am

the d wrote:Lots of guys easy to hate even on your team.

I wouldn't say that I hate anybody on the Pirates, but this team does frustrate me. Marte and Polanco are both very talented, which makes their defensive and baserunning errors all the more infuriating. (Pedro Alvarez is a crime against first base, but I don't get upset when he makes a mistake. He's just not a good defensive player; he doesn't make errors because he's acting like an ass-clown.)

At least they were able to unload Neck Lips Tabata at the trade deadline.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:43 am

bapo! wrote:(We've talked about this before, but it's amazing that a team with a history as long and storied as the Pirates has never had a great pitcher. Cole might be that guy.)

Yankees aren't that far behind. If you list out their best players in franchise history (Yankee career only), you're probably forcing a SP into the top 10 if you have one. Maybe Ford, I guess, from half a century ago. Losing Cole will hurt until we sign him as a free agent for too many years.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:47 am

Steve wrote:This means, of course, that the Cardinals will win out again. Fuckers.

This is the one sentiment that unites all Cubs and Pirates fans.

(I'm in awe of what the Cardinals were able to do with all of their injuries this year. Every couple of weeks, I found myself saying, 'That has to catch up to them at some point, right'?)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:50 am

Top 25 fWAR, single team:
1. Walter Johnson: 117.1 (Senators)
2. Christy Mathewson: 90 (Giants)
3. Bob Gibson: 82.3 (Cardinals)
4. John Smoltz: 78.3 (Braves)
5. Roger Clemens: 76.8 (Red Sox)
6. Steve Carlton: 75 (Phillies)
7. Warren Spahn: 74.3 (Braves)
8. Greg Maddux: 72.9 (Braves)
9. Kid Nichols: 72.8 (Beaneaters)
10. Phil Niekro: 72.2 (Braves)
11. Tom Seaver: 67.7 (Mets)
12. Don Sutton: 64 (Dodgers)
13. Robin Roberts: 62.7 (Phillies)
14. Bob Feller: 62.6 (Indians)
15. Mickey Lolich: 61.4 (Tigers)
16. Juan Marichal: 60.6 (Giants)
17. Hal Newhouser: 60.4 (Tigers)
18. Bob Friend: 60 (Pirates)
19. Don Drysdale: 59.3 (Dodgers)
20. Dazzy Vance: 59 (Robins)
21. Andy Pettitte: 57.8 (Yankees)
22. Eddie Plank: 57.8 (Athletics)
23. Jim Palmer: 56.6 (Orioles)
24. Carl Hubbell: 56.5 (Giants)
25. Cy Young: 55.7 (Spiders)

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:53 am

Kershaw?

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:55 am

mister d wrote:
bapo! wrote:(We've talked about this before, but it's amazing that a team with a history as long and storied as the Pirates has never had a great pitcher. Cole might be that guy.)
Yankees aren't that far behind. If you list out their best players in franchise history (Yankee career only), you're probably forcing a SP into the top 10 if you have one. Maybe Ford, I guess, from half a century ago. Losing Cole will hurt until we sign him as a free agent for too many years.

I can only think of two for the Cubs - Three-Finger Brown and Fergie Jenkins. I don't think Maddux counts.

And Three-Finger Brown was only good for 45 WAR over his career.

Here are the Pirates career leaders in Pitching WAR (from BB Ref):

Code: Select all

                                                                                                                                                         
Rk                 Player  WAR From   To   Age   G  GS  CG SHO  GF   W   L W-L%  SV     IP    H    R   ER  BB   SO  ERA  FIP ERA+  HR    BF IBB HBP BK WP
1              Babe Adams 49.9 1907 1926 25-44 481 353 205  44  90 194 139 .583  16 2991.1 2832 1125  911 428 1036 2.74 2.72  118  67     11926  47  1 26
2              Bob Friend 47.9 1951 1965 20-34 568 477 161  35  46 191 218 .467   9 3480.1 3610 1575 1372 869 1682 3.55 3.33  108 273 14644 108  45 12 50
3           Wilbur Cooper 47.9 1912 1924 20-32 469 369 263  33  78 202 159 .560  14 3199.0 3074 1241  974 762 1191 2.74 3.03  120  79     13123  93  0 43
4         John Candelaria 32.1 1975 1993 21-39 345 271  45   9  42 124  87 .588  16 1873.0 1763  731  660 436 1159 3.17 3.40  117 172  7651  45  26 10 13
5              Sam Leever 29.3 1901 1910 29-38 302 228 179  32  61 157  64 .710  10 2016.0 1834  721  518 412  627 2.31 2.70  122  20      8016  68  3 28
6                Vern Law 26.2 1950 1967 20-37 483 364 119  28  78 162 147 .524  13 2672.0 2833 1274 1118 597 1092 3.77 3.70  101 268 11231  74  40  3 39
7              Rip Sewell 25.7 1938 1949 31-42 385 243 137  20  86 143  97 .596  15 2108.2 2082  968  804 740  634 3.43 3.77  109 114      9041  23  2 30
8              Ray Kremer 25.5 1924 1933 31-40 308 247 134  14  37 143  85 .627   9 1954.2 2108  950  816 483  516 3.76 4.18  113 123      8330  29  2 23
9        Deacon Phillippe 25.1 1901 1911 29-39 292 218 180  24  63 148  79 .652  11 2007.0 1913  766  548 257  786 2.46 2.36  118  24      7948  45  3 35
10              Bob Veale 24.0 1962 1972 26-36 341 255  78  20  31 116  91 .560   6 1868.2 1630  731  636 839 1652 3.06 2.76  113  87  7924  59  29  9 90

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/6/2015.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:58 am

Because the Play Index is so awesome, here's the top 20 for the Yankees. As the first line shows, this is not limited to starters.

Code: Select all

                                                                                                                                                           
Rk                Player  WAR From   To   Age    G  GS  CG SHO  GF   W   L  W-L%  SV     IP    H    R   ER   BB   SO  ERA  FIP ERA+  HR    BF IBB HBP BK WP
1         Mariano Rivera 56.6 1995 2013 25-43 1115  10   0   0 952  82  60  .577 652 1283.2  998  340  315  286 1173 2.21 2.76  205  71  5103  41  46  3 13
2            Whitey Ford 53.9 1950 1967 21-38  498 438 156  45  35 236 106  .690  11 3170.1 2766 1107  967 1086 1956 2.75 3.26  133 228 13036  44  28  5 75
3          Andy Pettitte 51.6 1995 2013 23-41  447 438  24   3   2 219 127  .633   0 2796.1 2951 1355 1223  889 2020 3.94 3.77  115 236 11924  31  50 10 61
4             Ron Guidry 47.9 1975 1988 24-37  368 323  95  26  23 170  91  .651   4 2392.0 2198  953  874  633 1778 3.29 3.27  119 226  9794  24  13  8 56
5            Red Ruffing 46.8 1930 1946 25-41  426 391 261  40  30 231 124  .651   9 3168.2 2995 1406 1222 1066 1526 3.47 3.86  119 200     13353  31  3 26
6            Lefty Gomez 43.2 1930 1942 21-33  367 319 173  28  31 189 101  .652  10 2498.1 2286 1087  927 1090 1468 3.34 3.87  125 138     10706  19  0 39
7            Bob Shawkey 42.8 1915 1927 24-36  415 274 164  26 105 168 131  .562  27 2488.2 2304 1014  862  855 1163 3.12 3.44  117 102     10211  42  1 36
8        Mel Stottlemyre 40.6 1964 1974 22-32  360 356 152  40   3 164 139  .541   1 2661.1 2435 1003  878  809 1257 2.97 3.37  112 171 10972  75  44  1 57
9             Waite Hoyt 35.6 1921 1930 21-30  365 276 156  15  70 157  98  .616  29 2272.1 2405 1035  879  631  713 3.48 3.81  115  93      9673  32  3 23
10          Mike Mussina 35.1 2001 2008 32-39  249 248  12   8   0 123  72  .631   0 1553.0 1565  723  669  318 1278 3.88 3.50  114 166  6392  14  38  0 32
11          Herb Pennock 33.3 1923 1933 29-39  346 268 165  19  52 162  90  .643  23 2203.1 2471 1032  867  471  700 3.54 3.61  114  91      9373  15  4 34
12          Ray Caldwell 29.0 1910 1918 22-30  248 196 150  17  42  96  99  .492   4 1718.1 1519  684  572  576  803 3.00 2.95  101  41      6870  52  2 22
13          Jack Chesbro 28.4 1903 1909 29-35  269 227 168  18  36 128  93  .579   2 1952.0 1752  795  560  434  913 2.58 2.39  109  26      7731  55  1 42
14             Russ Ford 25.5 1909 1913 26-30  143 129 100  10  14  73  56  .566   3 1112.2 1010  458  314  287  553 2.54 2.78  126  27      4432  24  3 16
15         Spud Chandler 23.2 1937 1947 29-39  211 184 109  26  14 109  43  .717   6 1485.0 1327  549  468  463  614 2.84 3.30  132  64      6102  19  5 20
16         Dave Righetti 22.9 1979 1990 20-31  522  76  13   2 379  74  61  .548 224 1136.2  999  448  393  473  940 3.11 3.12  127  65  4811  37  16 16 33
17           CC Sabathia 22.6 2009 2015 28-34  198 198  12   2   0  97  56  .634   0 1329.1 1290  609  551  371 1181 3.73 3.64  114 143  5569  27  45  5 33
18         Roger Clemens 21.2 1999 2007 36-44  175 174   3   2   0  83  42  .664   0 1103.0 1044  536  491  398 1014 4.01 3.80  114 116  4684   8  41  1 50
19            David Cone 20.4 1995 2000 32-37  145 144   7   1   0  64  40  .615   0  922.0  829  431  401  398  888 3.91 4.02  118  98  3943   8  42  4 47
20            Tommy John 20.0 1979 1989 36-46  214 203  53  12   7  91  60  .603   0 1367.0 1456  621  545  324  483 3.59 3.59  112  80  5709  19  33 10 46

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/6/2015.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 11:59 am

Bob Friend. Would never have guessed that. But he's only on that list because he pitched 15 years for the Pirates. Glancing at his numbers, it looks like he was dominant in maybe two of those years.

Fun story, tho I might be confusing Friend with Dick Groat or Don Hoak, but I'm pretty sure it was Friend. Anyway, my sister's father-in-law used to live in an apartment downstairs from him. F-I-L said that he knew when Friend was scheduled to pitch because he could hear him pacing back and forth all night the night before.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:07 pm

Ryan wrote:Kershaw?

3rd active behind Felix and Verlander.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:12 pm

Speaking of WAR, I don't think that I was Swamping when I heard this a few months ago so it's probably been mentioned: Since 2009, Mike Trout has the fifth-highest WAR in baseball, even tho his first full season wasn't until 2012.

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:37 pm

Scored tix to Game 1 at Dodgers Stadium on Friday.

Post by **brian** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:39 pm

bapo! wrote:Speaking of WAR, I don't think that I was Swamping when I heard this a few months ago so it's probably been mentioned: Since 2009, Mike Trout has the fifth-highest WAR in baseball, even tho his first full season wasn't until 2012.

He also has the fourth-highest WAR for any player in history through their age 24 season. Which he hasn't played yet.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:57 pm

454 hitters since 1900 have 1,000 or more PA before age 24:
Mike Trout: 38.5 (2,877 PA)
Ted Williams: 36.4 (2,615 PA)
Ty Cobb: 36.2 (3,080 PA)
Mel Ott: 33.2 (3,313 PA)
Mickey Mantle: 29.5 (2,841 PA)
Ken Griffey Jr.: 28.1 (3,113 PA)
Arky Vaughan: 26.9 (2,480 PA)
Joe Jackson: 26.9 (2,044 PA)
Eddie Mathews: 26.7 (2,491 PA)
Al Kaline: 26.2 (3,182 PA)
Jimmie Foxx: 26.1 (2,567 PA)
Rogers Hornsby: 26.0 (2,243 PA)
Alex Rodriguez: 25.5 (2,843 PA)
Stan Musial: 25.4 (1,953 PA)
Andruw Jones: 25.4 (2,619 PA)
Sherry Magee: 24.8 (2,841 PA)
Cesar Cedeno: 23.1 (2,915 PA)
Cal Ripken: 22.4 (2,137 PA)
Albert Pujols: 22.2 (2,036 PA)
Frank Robinson: 21.7 (2,594 PA)
...
Delmon Young: -1.5 (1,851 PA)
Charley O'Leary: -1.6 (1,560 PA)
Johnny Berardino: -2.1 (1,074 PA)
Ed Brinkman: -2.2 (1,685 PA)
Bob Kennedy: -2.3 (1,388 PA)
Alex Gonzalez: -2.3 (1,096 PA)
Peter Bergeron: -3.4 (1,063 PA)
Al Brancato: -3.6 (1,003 PA)
Ted Kazanski: -4.4 (1,125 PA)
Jose Guillen: -5.3 (1,449 PA)

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 12:59 pm

Rex · Post by **Rex** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:30 pm

Hard to bet against the Cubs in October. I'll take them, 2-1. Not really sure where the Bucs' run is going to come from--maybe they'll get the run I thought the Yanks would get last night.

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:47 pm

Rex wrote:Not really sure where the Bucs' run is going to come from--maybe they'll get the run I thought the Yanks would get last night.

Career vs. Arrieta:

Projected lineup except McCutchen plus Aramis Ramirez - 18 for 120
McCutchen - 8 for 23

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 1:52 pm

Yeah, but despite all that, Chicago has one inherent disadvantage - a century-long history of Cubness.

bapo! · Post by **bapo!** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:04 pm

The Pirates just announced their line-up: Polanco, Harrison, Cutch, Marte, Cervelli, Walker, Mercer, Rodriguez, Cole.

Josh Harrison at 3rd base, Sean Rodriguez at 1st base, Aramis Ramirez and Pedro Alvarez on the bench.

Rodriguez is one of those players who can play a bunch of positions capably. Hurdle likes to use him as a late-inning defensive replacement when they have the lead. The only problem is that he can't really hit. (OPS+ of 76 this year.) I guess Hurdle is going all-in on defense. He really wants to win this game 2-1.

This is fantastic. The radio guys I'm listening to are losing their minds. Now I can listen to five hours of angry yinzers leading up to the game. And if the Pirates lose, I know what the reaction will be. This decision will be talked about all winter.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:14 pm

sancarlos wrote:Yeah, but despite all that, Chicago has one inherent disadvantage - a century-long history of Cubness.

Yup. They can be the underdog, they can be the favorite, they can be completely lucky to be there, they can be on the verge of clinching the pennant, they can still be counted on to fail spectacularly.

As I mentioned to a local sportswriter on Twitter, the Cubs have made the playoffs six times since 1984 (or since 1945). Each time they collapsed with a three-game losing streak.

At least if they get knocked off tonight, they will end that streak.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:20 pm

Finding a way

Excited!

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:21 pm

bapo! wrote:The Pirates just announced their line-up: Polanco, Harrison, Cutch, Marte, Cervelli, Walker, Mercer, Rodriguez, Cole.

Josh Harrison at 3rd base, Sean Rodriguez at 1st base, Aramis Ramirez and Pedro Alvarez on the bench.

Rodriguez is one of those players who can play a bunch of positions capably. Hurdle likes to use him as a late-inning defensive replacement when they have the lead. The only problem is that he can't really hit. (OPS+ of 76 this year.) I guess Hurdle is going all-in on defense. He really wants to win this game 2-1.

This is fantastic. The radio guys I'm listening to are losing their minds. Now I can listen to five hours of angry yinzers leading up to the game. And if the Pirates lose, I know what the reaction will be. This decision will be talked about all winter.

Yeah, Maddon has made a strange lineup, too. Schwarber in right, Bryant in left, Tommy LaStella starting at third. Maddon is also batting Russell eighth and Arrieta ninth. I guess he figures Arrieta is more likely to come through with the bat.

But Cubs fans are happier because they are basically delirious to be here and think that Maddon can do no wrong.

I'm fine with the lineup but would rather see Baez at third. It won't make a difference to the likelihood of success, and it would be good to get all these superkids their first taste of "Postseason."

Post by **brian** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:25 pm

I'd like to see Lions fans and Cubs fans face off in a negativity contest one day. Maybe Debbie Downer could moderate.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:32 pm

Sean Rodriguez at first...eh, I'd think one of their best hopes would be Pedro running into one, but I get it.

Let's ride.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:32 pm

Also...the Cubs win 97 fuckin games and get a road play-in. That's crazy.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:37 pm

bapo! wrote:Rodriguez is one of those players who can play a bunch of positions capably. Hurdle likes to use him as a late-inning defensive replacement when they have the lead. The only problem is that he can't really hit. (OPS+ of 76 this year.) I guess Hurdle is going all-in on defense. He really wants to win this game 2-1.

It seems insane that fans can be told repeatedly about the data used by both of those front offices and then continue to argue about it. Looking for a minute at the numbers, not only does the defense improve, but Arrieta has reverse splits (34 point higher isoP to righties), so you can either feed him Alvarez thinking somehow he didn't face 200 Alvarez's this season and eat them up, or you can take the known gains of the defense plus hopefully some marginal gains of the splits and hope that little tiny fraction pays off.

(Which is exactly what Girardi, who also LOVES that information, didn't do last night when he started McCann over Murphy. McCann the name is the better player overall; Murphy the right handed hitter had slightly better odds of success in that specific instance.)

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:39 pm

(And that's just be looking at basic splits. I'm sure they're 10 levels deeper in terms of what pitches Arrieta leaves most vulnerable and which ones Rodriguez sees his rare success against and all that. Just like I'm sure the Cubs know exactly what 0.XX balls hit to right could happen where Bryant makes the play but Schwarber doesn't.)

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:40 pm

Pittsburgh fans do not deserve their teams, man. I may be more critical of them than others due to familiarity but these motherfuckers are never happy and their teams are awesome.

The Steelers are good like, 4 out of every 5 years for the last 2+ decades. The shit are you people complaining about? Watch the other teams and see how they go year to year.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:53 pm

Which is why Kessel is a perfect storm.

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:56 pm

Any Mets fans down for an avatar bet?