The Swamp

Got two new neighbors on a 8 person cul de sac. One has no kids. The other too young for my kids to play with. But I'm gonna be able to put the kids through college if the market holds up another 5 years. One is in their 20s. Who has that kind of cash at 20 something? I was as well paid as a new lawyer could be in this town and couldn't be persuaded to part with $300 on two incomes. Money ain't like it used to be. Not sure a million is a lot anymore.

We bought our house in Canton (Baltimore) in June, 2006. Yeah, we were left holding the bag. The market's finally to the point where we can consider selling without having to take a bath.

Get me out of here. I've aged the hell out of this place.

Really? 2006 seems way better than 2008. I'm on to retirement. Other people's obsessions aren't worth it anymore. Way sooner a porch and a lemonade. I wouldn't get bored.

Just let me add that retirement is awesome, dudes.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:45 pm Really? 2006 seems way better than 2008. I'm on to retirement. Other people's obsessions aren't worth it anymore. Way sooner a porch and a lemonade. I wouldn't get bored.

Better in what way? If you're selling? Sure. But we were buying.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:35 pm We bought our house in Canton (Baltimore) in June, 2006. Yeah, we were left holding the bag. The market's finally to the point where we can consider selling without having to take a bath.

Get me out of here. I've aged the hell out of this place.

But aren’t you going to overpay anywhere you buy now also? We could sell our townhouse for 2.5x what we paid, but we would end up overpaying anywhere we go at this point. We’ve looked.

bfj wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:28 pm

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 4:35 pm We bought our house in Canton (Baltimore) in June, 2006. Yeah, we were left holding the bag. The market's finally to the point where we can consider selling without having to take a bath.

Get me out of here. I've aged the hell out of this place.

But aren’t you going to overpay anywhere you buy now also? We could sell our townhouse for 2.5x what we paid, but we would end up overpaying anywhere we go at this point. We’ve looked.

TBH, if it meant we could get out from under this mortgage, I'd move our stuff into storage and then just live in a furnished apartment for a year or so.

It’s hard to imagine there isn’t going to be some kind of a market correction on home prices in the relatively near future. Maybe not 2007/8 bubble bad but a 10-15 percent drop might not be out of the question. Selling high and rolling the dice by renting for a couple years (aside from the huge hassle of moving) doesn’t seem like the craziest idea.

Of course I’m biased because that’s essentially what we’re doing.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:46 pm It’s hard to imagine there isn’t going to be some kind of a market correction on home prices in the relatively near future. Maybe not 2007/8 bubble bad but a 10-15 percent drop might not be out of the question. Selling high and rolling the dice by renting for a couple years (aside from the huge hassle of moving) doesn’t seem like the craziest idea.

Of course I’m biased because that’s essentially what we’re doing.

I'm 100% with you on this. The COVID bubble is going on much longer than I expected. Everything (other than my neighbors from hell) is selling in under a week. I think the market in cities has to be plummeting with everyone trying to get out. I think a lot more people will be working remote, and that will somewhat sustain the strong suburban market, but there has to be a correction coming, at least a slight decrease. If I had an extra million in cash on hand, I'd look to buy a rental apartment in NYC, and sell in a couple years hoping people start to go back to city living.

Speaking of the hell neighbors, they put the house back on the market two weeks ago, using a broker who doesn't sell anything remotely close to our area. I went to their website, and their "featured properties" include an autobody shop in downtown Newark, including the building, the business and all equipment for $650,000; and a bodega in Kearney with 2 apartments upstairs for $750,000. I am so frustrated with the owners for their incompetence in selecting realtors. They had an open house, so we went in. Realtor seemed about 22 years old, with a very thick accent. She immediately told us the owner is desperate to sell. It was very weird. The old listing is still up on Zillow at a higher price, and most real estate sites don't even show the house as being for sale. No sign up in front of the house, either. I don't get it, I feel like the owner needs to show they are trying to sell for some reason, but don't intend to sell. 2 day open house, I didn't see a single person walk in, but again, they didn't even list the house on most websites, so how could anyone know to look?

We have seriously considered downsizing. We could sell for over 1.5x what we paid. But even downsized houses are still going to cost 1.5-3x what they are going to be valued in two to three years.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:46 pm It’s hard to imagine there isn’t going to be some kind of a market correction on home prices in the relatively near future. Maybe not 2007/8 bubble bad but a 10-15 percent drop might not be out of the question. Selling high and rolling the dice by renting for a couple years (aside from the huge hassle of moving) doesn’t seem like the craziest idea.

Of course I’m biased because that’s essentially what we’re doing.

That's been my feel on this as well.

One of the secret blessings in being forced to Korea meant I could sell my house and not be in the market for a house immediately. My stuff is in storage and my wife had already moved to Tucson before I received orders there (total serendipity) and is locked into a reasonable rent amount for the next year. And since being here I get extra money based on family separation pay, COLA, and housing allowance for Tucson.

Watching the market has been wild. And since I'm so used to living in <100 SQ ft between my deployment and Korea, I'm completely fine with that when I go back.

The market has leveled a bit and there for sure is a little more inventory. I can tell because I've altered the pricing range down and there are still a solid amount of homes available. What I'm left with are houses that 18 months ago should be about 35%-40% less. But the difference for me is the money I've banked and saved in the meantime.

And I did the rough math for the local area. For example, a house that is $365k but at 3.1% APR has a mortgage payment of only $160 a month more when compared to $275k at 4.5%. And that's not factoring a down payment. Whether my bid wins is another story, but I'll at least know I'm competitive.

brian wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:46 pm It’s hard to imagine there isn’t going to be some kind of a market correction on home prices in the relatively near future. Maybe not 2007/8 bubble bad but a 10-15 percent drop might not be out of the question. Selling high and rolling the dice by renting for a couple years (aside from the huge hassle of moving) doesn’t seem like the craziest idea.

Of course I’m biased because that’s essentially what we’re doing.

I don't know. Everything I keep hearing is that there's just no inventory. That could easily be a too many for rent/ too hard to own issue, but I don't think so.

Johnnie, I’ve seen the cost versus interest rate thing quite a bit and it’s fine if you’re convinced you’ll be there long term, but cost is fixed. Your house will never not have cost you that extra $90K whereas interest rates can always be redone.

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:30 pm

brian wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 5:46 pm It’s hard to imagine there isn’t going to be some kind of a market correction on home prices in the relatively near future. Maybe not 2007/8 bubble bad but a 10-15 percent drop might not be out of the question. Selling high and rolling the dice by renting for a couple years (aside from the huge hassle of moving) doesn’t seem like the craziest idea.

Of course I’m biased because that’s essentially what we’re doing.

I don't know. Everything I keep hearing is that there's just no inventory. That could easily be a too many for rent/ too hard to own issue, but I don't think so.

You’re describing a classic bubble though. If prices are being pushed higher than they should in a perfectly balanced supply and demand market because of external reasons (COVID, rents being too high, not enough new home inventory or whatever it is) then it will eventually have to correct when those factors no longer apply).

I don’t think it’s any one thing that causing likely all that I mentioned and others (I think eviction moratoriums are to “blame” as well), but I don’t see these rapid increases as sustainable.

Or the wealthy and corporations are buying more and more to hold long term. Basically Manhattan real estate but expanding the territory.

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:35 pm Johnnie, I’ve seen the cost versus interest rate thing quite a bit and it’s fine if you’re convinced you’ll be there long term, but cost is fixed. Your house will never not have cost you that extra $90K whereas interest rates can always be redone.

I re-read your second sentence a dozen times and I'm missing it.

I think my wife and I's intent is to be in our next home for quite some time (I'm retiring in Tucson) so it's kinda moot.

But I also think the inflation in base price of a house is inverse to the APR dropping, for the most part.

For example, a house that is $365k but at 3.1% APR has a mortgage payment of only $160 a month more when compared to $275k at 4.5%.

Whatever the mortgage rates are, even if the monthly payments were identical, the former is incurring $90K more debt than the latter.

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Jul 02, 2021 8:04 pm For example, a house that is $365k but at 3.1% APR has a mortgage payment of only $160 a month more when compared to $275k at 4.5%.

Whatever the mortgage rates are, even if the monthly payments were identical, the former is incurring $90K more debt than the latter.

Ahhhhh, gotcha now. Yes, that is an issue. Especially if all of a sudden that equity vanishes.

I'm lucky enough, however, to have a retirement check come next year. So I'm looking at cost through the prism of "I can take the hit" if that were to happen.

I think my next door nightmare might be coming to end. My realtor called my wife a couple weeks ago saying the house is in attorney review. The listing agent came back and took down the empty sign post she put up. At least a month after listing, she planted one of the large signposts, never actually put a sign on it though. Very optimistic that the buy will be less of an issue than the current tenants. A little concerned at the sales price as a comp. When I bough my house theirs was also for sale for a similar price. Zillow had theirs estimated as being worth more than mine up until a few months ago. They have dropped the listing price by $200,000 from the pre-COVID price, while the sales prices have gone up over $200,000 for houses in that range. Hopefully I don't need to sell while that remains a comp.

hello swampers. Jen and I willingly engaged in pure stress as we decided to try and downsize. It was kinda an abrupt decision, but, fuck it. Tail end of a heated market? Sure. But, fuck it. Interest rate armageddon potentially looming? Perhaps. Or not. Who the fuck knows anymore.

Anyway, we found a place in Baltimore County that is on about 1.5 acres, is slightly less house, and is DEFINITELY less taxes (like, $10,000 less annually), and put in an offer last week. It was accepted. Then, all we had to do was sell our house. Like, fucking FAST. Because getting the one in the county was contingent on selling our place. So, we had been working loosely at getting it ready but put the hammer down over the last nine days, de-cluttered everything like you see on HGTV, got rid of a shit-ton of stuff, painted some ceilings inside and a hallway, cut some trees back, landscaping help, etc and put the thing on the market on Wednesday at 3:00. Took off for a small VRBO in southern PA to get away from showings and not obsess. And...36 hours later, a full price offer. So...this might actually be happening. You know, if the inspection on our almost 100 year old house that needs...stuff...doesn't blow this whole house of cards down. But, if it all comes together, moving up to the Monkton area of Baltimore County on or about December 8. This idea flowered around late September. Life comes at you fast and what not if you ask it to I guess.

Nice! Good luck.

Good luck, TB. Sounds promising!

Weird thread for a guy who just bought a house.

A_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 22, 2021 7:10 pm Weird thread for a guy who just bought a house.

It’s in there at the start!

Fun stuff. Smooth sailing.

Somewhere or another there was a discussion of tipping various service providers across a variety of fields. We are definitely getting movers to move our shit (tentative/getting more solid move date of December 8) . There will be four of them apparently. How much per moving person? $50 cash each?

I'm completely coming from a different angle because the military schedules my movers when I move bases, but we are explicitly told to NOT tip them. How much they make is built into their contract, so more money for them for against the point of a contact.

But we are allowed to buy them food and give them water and snacks and stuff.

So do with that what you will.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 5:58 pm Somewhere or another there was a discussion of tipping various service providers across a variety of fields. We are definitely getting movers to move our shit (tentative/getting more solid move date of December 8) . There will be four of them apparently. How much per moving person? $50 cash each?

I've done $40-$50 per person. If it's a small operation and the owner/manager is there I don't usually tip them...I've given the whole amount to that person and had them distribute.

GoodKarma wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 8:22 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 5:58 pm Somewhere or another there was a discussion of tipping various service providers across a variety of fields. We are definitely getting movers to move our shit (tentative/getting more solid move date of December 8) . There will be four of them apparently. How much per moving person? $50 cash each?

I've done $40-$50 per person. If it's a small operation and the owner/manager is there I don't usually tip them...I've given the whole amount to that person and had them distribute.

Thanks - locally owned company but not a small operation - so thinking tips (assuming they are not assholes) for each of the movers makes most sense.

I mean, presumably they are getting paid. $50 each seems like a lot to me and like said above I have usually just given to the crew chief while also providing pizza/drinks for the duration of the move.

But YMMV.

Your Movers May Vomit.

mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 9:42 am Your Movers May Vomit.

Given that we obviously can't get decent pizza around here, that's a given.

Did $20s but a small move of damaged stuff. Box truck. Bigger move with stuff I cared about would justify a better tip. In advance or on the back end? In advance gives more reason not to destroy walls and furniture but back end ensures satisfaction?

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 1:16 pm Did $20s but a small move of damaged stuff. Box truck. Bigger move with stuff I cared about would justify a better tip. In advance or on the back end? In advance gives more reason not to destroy walls and furniture but back end ensures satisfaction?

I am thinking...after.

So...we are closing on selling our house Friday. But...the house we are buying a massive hicucp has arisen and we may be without a place to live on Wednesday next week. yay.

People a few houses down from us are in the same predicament. Bad, but far better than the reverse. Good luck.

I am breaking out in hives from the stress.

Can I ask what the hiccup is?

Shit.

Almost literally.

No, literally.

We put in the offer on the house we are buying in mid-october. 45 day close contingent on selling ours. Was accepted even with contingency. We immediately got inspections done, house, well, septic. Well checked out, a few items needed some attention in house but not many, and...septic had a flag. Distributor not working properly leading to overflow in one field rather than evenly distributed? Dunno. Don't know shit about shit in this case. But, flagged as a mandatory repair, which they obviously agreed to make.

We then put our house on the market and all hell broke loose as we tried to sell quickly to meet the early Dec. close to buy the house that the sellers were demanding. And..I think we've done it - full offer in 36 hours - inspection - long list of repairs - negotiated a big ass credit etc - has been a month of frantic work to meet Dec. 3 close so we can buy Dec. 7.

In meantime, our realtor circled back with them and said - got your receipts for most of the repairs - what's the status on the septic? That was Monday. Monday late their realtor says "they had someone but that person never made it out and then they contacted me in a panic and said can you get someone" so she did and that guy came out and said "whoa this is not a simple problem it's gonna need permits pulled and that's at least 7 days to get permits and actually - not only is this not a simple fix the whole septic needs to be replaced".

And...hives for me.

So we close on selling on Friday. We had already planned a seven day stayover at the home we are selling to allow us to close and move Dec. 7 - 9 but now...we don't really have a place to move.

Bank won't close a loan for a home that has septic that needs to be replaced. So therefore seller putting $25K in escrow for the work isn't a solution. And it is a $25K problem for the seller.

We have a dog so short term rental is problematic, also nowhere to put our furniture, etc.

Hives.

So we have proposed them agreeing to us moving in on Dec. 7 -9 as planned but under a "pre-settlement occupancy agreement" that we would pay $0 to live in the house while the septic work occurs. We also would require them to pay the penalties for extending our mortgage rate lock past Dec. 7 (which would be up to $2000 if it runs as late as Jan. 7). We also will require them to get the yard where they are tearing it up at least close to what it was when we agreed to buy it. Etc.

Supposedly the sellers have a home they are buying and need to sell this and should want to meet those terms and can afford to replace the septic but...I am looking at moving into the house but not owning it and living there in limbo for awhile before a theoretical close after the new septic is put into place. At least it's just me and Jen and the pup (but also Quinn once he gets home from college on Dec. 18). But I get to worry like hell over living somewhere but not owning it and praying nothing goes wrong and also WHAT IF something goes sideways with the septic work and that takes longer than expected etc etc. We are putting a clause that if not done by Jan. 7 we can live there an additional 30 days rent free while we look for a new place to live or move to.

HIVES.