The Swamp

This shit is unbelievable and almost definitely 100% true.

As you guys have said, there's no structure for any of this.

Apple will make iPhones in America!!!!

Where, what factories?

There was a post on Bluesky a couple days ago that had a link suggesting an iPhone made in America would cost somewhere in the $30,000-$100,000 range.

But yes, "what factories" is the real question for this supposed "manufacturing investment".

DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:49 pm There was a post on Bluesky a couple days ago that had a link suggesting an iPhone made in America would cost somewhere in the $30,000-$100,000 range.

I could not afford that.

Popped back up...

tennbengal wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:54 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:49 pm There was a post on Bluesky a couple days ago that had a link suggesting an iPhone made in America would cost somewhere in the $30,000-$100,000 range.

I could not afford that.

Pshaw. You're a lawyer.

DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:49 pm There was a post on Bluesky a couple days ago that had a link suggesting an iPhone made in America would cost somewhere in the $30,000-$100,000 range.

But yes, "what factories" is the real question for this supposed "manufacturing investment".

And even if building factories is a logistical possibility, where are they going to get the raw materials like the steel to physically build these factories? Has anyone asked that question to the press secretary?

L-Jam3 wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 1:23 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: Tue Apr 08, 2025 12:49 pm There was a post on Bluesky a couple days ago that had a link suggesting an iPhone made in America would cost somewhere in the $30,000-$100,000 range.

But yes, "what factories" is the real question for this supposed "manufacturing investment".

And even if building factories is a logistical possibility, where are they going to get the raw materials like the steel to physically build these factories? Has anyone asked that question to the press secretary?

The rare earth metallic elements etc that go into the phones will be exorbitant as well. I do wonder how much we could ramp up steel if we had to do so, but I can't see any smart company making that kind of infrastructure investment knowing full well these tariffs are not permanent and can wait it out.

I don't know how I'd go about finalizing a list of "people I would like to know won't see the ball drop into 2026", but I'm pretty sure she'd be on it. Beyond it being an ethically abhorrent person doing something ethically abhorrent, I don't at all understand how this is legal. Take your twitter influencer to work shit.

The music kills me

(Glances at the bond market)


Seems bad.

Good if you're buying them right? Yields and prices inverse. Sometimes we need this. Gives people buying opportunities. Can't bitch about housing and bitch about a recession

HaulCitgo wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:12 am Good if you're buying them right? Yields and prices inverse. Sometimes we need this. Gives people buying opportunities. Can't bitch about housing and bitch about a recession

The hedge funds dumped them hard. Sure you can get a cheaper product but when bonds are uncertain the whole system acts messed up for a bit. And the arbitrage boys misplayed their hand.

Need to start buying again. Fucked up and sold right after covid started... The bottom. Been holding cash in high yield savings so I'm gonna creep back in about 5% a month for the next 18

tennbengal wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 5:16 am (Glances at the bond market)


Seems bad.

Apparently the markets haven't picked up on that yet.

Maybe they aren't reading my Bluesky feed.

(In case someone wants to quote this back at me later - I still fully expect a bloodbath. They will even storm the capital.)

What's your Bluesky, Steve?

Gotta stop reading Bluesky today.

Jerloma wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:08 am What's your Bluesky, Steve?

@swampsteve.bsky ...

tennbengal wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:50 am Gotta stop reading Bluesky today.

Evergreen tweet.

HaulCitgo wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 7:09 am Need to start buying again. Fucked up and sold right after covid started... The bottom. Been holding cash in high yield savings so I'm gonna creep back in about 5% a month for the next 18

I hope you bought first thing this morning. Trump shockingly backed off the tariffs for 90 days, except for China. Outside of the stupidity of starting an economic war with a billion people, it's probably a smart move to not also be tariff-warring with every other country on the planet at the same time.

He’s just a dumb, stupid little boy.

Kinda wish countries would let him remove the tariffs but keep theirs in place. Nothing says they have to just follow along.

mister d wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 12:43 pm Kinda wish countries would let him remove the tariffs but keep theirs in place. Nothing says they have to just follow along.

Did anyone other than China impose retaliatory tariffs?

Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 12:33 pm

HaulCitgo wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 7:09 am Need to start buying again. Fucked up and sold right after covid started... The bottom. Been holding cash in high yield savings so I'm gonna creep back in about 5% a month for the next 18

I hope you bought first thing this morning. Trump shockingly backed off the tariffs for 90 days, except for China. Outside of the stupidity of starting an economic war with a billion people, it's probably a smart move to not also be tariff-warring with every other country on the planet at the same time.

Like China can go it alone. What are they gonna do? Build a wall?

Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:01 pm

mister d wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 12:43 pm Kinda wish countries would let him remove the tariffs but keep theirs in place. Nothing says they have to just follow along.

Did anyone other than China impose retaliatory tariffs?

Europe, for starters.

A_B wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:03 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:01 pm

mister d wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 12:43 pm Kinda wish countries would let him remove the tariffs but keep theirs in place. Nothing says they have to just follow along.

Did anyone other than China impose retaliatory tariffs?

Europe, for starters.

I read this morning that they hadn't imposed tariffs yet, that they were taking their sweet time because the US markets were already crashing anyway. Was that wrong?

Though with so many different tariffs being added and cancelled, maybe Europe retaliated against other tariffs?

I think theirs are slated to begin next week, so yeah, it could have been a bit of a bluff/check to see what happens.

As expected, tariffs are (mostly) gone on a random whim.

Great!

Except that no one is going to trust anything, at least in the near future. We manufacture overseas and I have no idea how to proceed.

Steve of phpBB wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:01 pm

mister d wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 12:43 pm Kinda wish countries would let him remove the tariffs but keep theirs in place. Nothing says they have to just follow along.

Did anyone other than China impose retaliatory tariffs?

EU announced they are retaliating and I think Canada is too. If Trump backs down, you know he is going to have a big press conference to announce his amazing victory in fixing our trade imbalance and his genius negotiating skills fixed our economy that Biden destroyed. And 40% of the population will believe him.

On the flip side, I am enjoying all the social media posts from Trump supporters, particularly small business owners, confused why they are seeing increased prices. Like a dairy farmer in Northern NY who can only get feed from Canada. Can’t believe they are passing on the tariff to him. “We have a contract for $x dollars, how can they change the price?” Another great one I wish I took a screen shot. Guy owns a small manufacturing shop, parts supplier wrote “Trump Tariff” on his invoice with a 77% price increase. “Trump said they would pay the tariff, maybe he IS lying.”

The Sybian wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:14 pm

EU announced they are retaliating and I think Canada is too. If Trump backs down, you know he is going to have a big press conference to announce his amazing victory in fixing our trade imbalance and his genius negotiating skills fixed our economy that Biden destroyed. And 40% of the population will believe him.

Already saying 75 countries have called asking to make a deal with him, so that has to be true.

He says that they are all kissing his ass to negotiate.

So proud.

The Sybian wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:14 pmLike a dairy farmer in Northern NY who can only get feed from Canada.

Potsdam NY!

(My grandfather taught and lived there my entire life, so I went there every year.)

And Trump and Musk drastically cut all of the regulatory Agencies and DOJ groups that protect from financial fraud, so nobody will be caught, and if they are they won’t be prosecuted. We are fucked. And people will probably just be happy the Dow went up bigly today.

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:11 pm As expected, tariffs are (mostly) gone on a random whim.

Great!

Except that no one is going to trust anything, at least in the near future. We manufacture overseas and I have no idea how to proceed.

My company is global. Manufacture in the US, I'm sure with lots of foreign materials and manufacturing all over Asia, Latin America and Europe. Our ASPAC head of HR from China was absolutely freaking out on the HR Leadership call this morning. Totally panicked over the tariffs. Our CEO just announced a hiring freeze, a freeze on all non-client related travel and spending directly as a result of the "uncertainty and volatility caused by trade policy and tariffs."

More of this, please!!!

Gunpowder wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:11 pm As expected, tariffs are (mostly) gone on a random whim.

Great!

Except that no one is going to trust anything, at least in the near future. We manufacture overseas and I have no idea how to proceed.

no sure it was that random. I think China have made a miscalculation. Xi said that if the US if putting tariffs on everyone, everyone should come together with China and punish the US. Let's all be friends!

So the US took tariffs off everyone except China, ensuring China has no friends.

That only works if everyone follows the US rather than enacts their own tariffs. They all still have the choice of US side, China side or 3rd/neither side.

Holy shit.