Re: September Baseball Thread
Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:04 am
Oh. Then I guess the joke is you legitimately don't have anyone else worth worrying about.
It's the sixth version of The Swamp. What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.sportsfrog.net/phpbb/
I agree with your first two sentences. For this discussion, I think that "replacement level" for managers would be the by the book guy that populates most of baseball management and just deploys his players in completely traditional matters (fast guy leads off, second batter can hit-and-run, pitcher bunts, closer pitches the ninth, and so on).mister d wrote:But "the book" involves listening to your gut which is pretty haphazard. And I think "the book" is sub-zero as well. Statistical optimization would be replacement level, more-often-successfully-than-not adjusting for the health/etc factors would be above replacement.
I treat his good outings like players treat no hitters in the dugout. I don't talk about how well he's pitching and I try not to even think about how well he's pitching.tennbengal wrote:Also, Os trying to come off the mat, led by Ubaldo Jiminez. Because, of course.
But that's not really replacement level, its status quo. The best managers aren't managers in the same way the best players are major leaguers; the 3rd best manager in major league baseball in 2018 might be coaching 3B in AA right now and a free hire.DSafetyGuy wrote:I agree with your first two sentences. For this discussion, I think that "replacement level" for managers would be the by the book guy that populates most of baseball management and just deploys his players in completely traditional matters (fast guy leads off, second batter can hit-and-run, pitcher bunts, closer pitches the ninth, and so on).
I have decided that we all may be on a shared acid trip this fall. Ubaldo with that pitching line fits my thesis.vandwagon wrote:I treat his good outings like players treat no hitters in the dugout. I don't talk about how well he's pitching and I try not to even think about how well he's pitching.tennbengal wrote:Also, Os trying to come off the mat, led by Ubaldo Jiminez. Because, of course.
In 5 September starts he's sporting a 0.83 WHIP. It's wild.
We're talking about a group of people about whom many people much smarter than I am think have almost no effect on whether or not a team wins, but can have a much larger effect on the same team losing. Replacement level for managers could very easily be negative "WARM" because they follow the book or rely on their gut.mister d wrote:But that's not really replacement level, its status quo. The best managers aren't managers in the same way the best players are major leaguers; the 3rd best manager in major league baseball in 2018 might be coaching 3B in AA right now and a free hire.DSafetyGuy wrote:I agree with your first two sentences. For this discussion, I think that "replacement level" for managers would be the by the book guy that populates most of baseball management and just deploys his players in completely traditional matters (fast guy leads off, second batter can hit-and-run, pitcher bunts, closer pitches the ninth, and so on).
Keith Law's chat this week:brian wrote:Can we at least all agree Ausmus is below replacement-level?
The context of Q&A is irrelevant.Just fire him. This isn’t a solitary error in judgment. It’s a pattern of ignorance.
But we assume there are 30 people in the world who could both relate to baseball players and implement a statistically optimized game plan, right? Therefore, most managers live below replacement level.DSafetyGuy wrote:We're talking about a group of people about whom many people much smarter than I am think have almost no effect on whether or not a team wins, but can have a much larger effect on the same team losing. Replacement level for managers could very easily be negative "WARM" because they follow the book or rely on their gut.
I was going to say someone said that upthread, but it was you.mister d wrote:But we assume there are 30 people in the world who could both relate to baseball players and implement a statistically optimized game plan, right? Therefore, most managers live below replacement level.DSafetyGuy wrote:We're talking about a group of people about whom many people much smarter than I am think have almost no effect on whether or not a team wins, but can have a much larger effect on the same team losing. Replacement level for managers could very easily be negative "WARM" because they follow the book or rely on their gut.
(This is now making me think about the concept of replacement level in the lead up to 1947 when there were superstar players eligible for the major leagues but not playing due to nothing other than choice.)
Yes. He was a pitching coach from 2001-14, those last five with the Reds. His area of expertise was the worst aspect of the team. He's 206-271 as Manager. This is approaching Dolan-Thomas level of bizarre loyalty.A_B wrote:Was he really that bad? His bullpen was terrible.
a new Giants post season pitcher? you don't say!howard wrote:8IP 3H 0R 1BB 6Ks. Ty Blach, keeping hope alive.
That's probably right, even if they get by the Mets. The Dodgers are terrible against left handed starters, which is why Bochy made the decision to go with Blach. I'd think he'll stick with Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and Moore if they get the 2nd wildcard and get past the Mets. It's crazy how well Lugo and Gsellman have done for the Mets. I don't think anyone could have realistically expected that out of either guy, especially if you look at their AAA stats. I know Las Vegas is a tough place to pitch, but there's still no way you would tab either guy for putting up a sub-3.00 ERA in the pennant stretch run.howard wrote:I don't think he will be on the roster. Only one game anyway. #Syndergaard. He'll have to wait until 2018.
I would have been a lot more annoyed by all the Ortiz tributes and lack of skepticism about his historically great final season if not for the fact that he led my fantasy team to the title this year. #ThankYouPapimister d wrote:The only thing more exciting than these wild card races is my fantasy baseball league's final day! Who wants to hear all the details???
For some reason, the commissioner of my league had the season end last Sunday. So I was unaware that Thornburg imploded this week. He was awesome for me after I scooped him up at the end of July.mister d wrote:Despite the best attempts of the Nationals (trying to get Scherzer his 20th at the expense of my rate stats) and Tyler Fucking Thornberg, my expansion team took it this year. Thank you to everyone who cared.
What's not lost in the noise of his lack of testicular fortitude is how 9 of the past 19 NL batting champions played 81 games at Coors Field.mister d wrote:Its funny how it violates both the competitive nature aspect of baseball and the personal stats don't matter aspect of baseball yet its considered perfectly fine by pretty much everyone but fans of the other hitter.
Yeah, the first draft of Major league where the team was based in Colorado didn't make sense.mister d wrote:A lot easier to hit when breaking stuff can't spin.