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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:41 pm
by tennbengal
Good fucking riddance Barbara comstock.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:41 pm
by brian
VA-10 flips to Dems. Officially +1 tonight.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:50 pm
by Nonlinear FC
tennbengal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:41 pm
Good fucking riddance Barbara comstock.
Fuck yes.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:51 pm
by A_B
Well over half KY06 in and Barr down almost 10k. 5 percentage points.
Strike that. down to 1 point margin.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:57 pm
by brian
A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:51 pm
Well over half KY06 in and Barr down almost 10k. 5 percentage points.
Strike that. down to 1 point margin.
NYT has her up 600 votes, but that's with all of Madison Co. in and 20 percent of Fayette still out there. I don't know shit about KY but that seems promising still.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm
by brian
Looks like she's gonna win Fayette County by about 25K and it might not be enough.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm
by Johnnie
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:16 pm
by A_B
brian wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:10 pm
Looks like she's gonna win Fayette County by about 25K and it might not be enough.
Yeah that’s kinda what I’m seeing too
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm
by brian
Doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen for her. She’s a tough lady though. Can share a foxhole with me any day. Was hoping for an early pickup there with her to maybe help me not sweat as much tonight.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm
by Johnnie
538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:18 pm
by degenerasian
Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm
538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.
It would be crazy if the Dems lost both house and Senate but Beto won.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:19 pm
by mister d
Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm
538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.
Just moved to 50/50.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:20 pm
by Johnnie
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:19 pm
Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:17 pm
538 dropped the Democrats taking the house from 94% to 67%. WTF.
Just moved to 50/50.
Just saw that. WTF.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm
by tennbengal
Fuck all this.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:22 pm
by Nonlinear FC
Not a conspiracy guy, but wrf
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 pm
by tennbengal
Nonlinear FC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:22 pm
Not a conspiracy guy, but wrf
I know what’s happening. The republic is dead.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 pm
by Johnnie
Seriously down to 39%? How?
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:25 pm
by mister d
Johnnie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:24 pm
Seriously down to 39%? How?
I'd equally believe either answer.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:27 pm
by tennbengal
Whoever controls how the votes are counted is the power. And all the levers are controlled by the minority to preserve the minority.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:29 pm
by tennbengal
This is somehow worse than two years ago.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:29 pm
by sancarlos
5 in 9 for Dems right now
NATHANIEL RAKICH8:27 PM
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:31 pm
by tennbengal
It’s not gonna happen. This country is done. Combination of voting suppression and outright voter theft and racism. I can’t take this anymore.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:35 pm
by mister d
sancarlos wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:29 pm
5 in 9 for Dems right now
NATHANIEL RAKICH8:27 PM
You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.
I was just about to quote this. The
PREEMINENT election forecaster lets his odds move when an 83% chance moves to called? JFC.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:37 pm
by Steve of phpBB
tennbengal wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:21 pm
Fuck all this.
This is correct.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:48 pm
by tennbengal
This truly isn’t my country. I am a stranger here.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:49 pm
by Giff
Yeah pretty sure I’m deleting social media tonight. Good Lord.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:52 pm
by tennbengal
Giff wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:49 pm
Yeah pretty sure I’m deleting social media tonight. Good Lord.
Yeah. I think for sure deleting my twitter account after this.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm
by A_B
NYT showing 13 toss up/rep lean races as democratic leads at moment, and california has several republican held tossups. I guess I don't see this as over yet?
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:59 pm
by brian
This country wants a fascist daddy to protect it against shoeless immigrants I guess. So be it.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:00 pm
by tennbengal
A_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm
NYT showing 13 toss up/rep lean races as democratic leads at moment, and california has several republican held tossups. I guess I don't see this as over yet?
It’s not. But it’s at best close. Pelosi already signaling attempts to be “bi-partisan” IF they squeak out a majority, which is useless against a dictator. Dem leadership still doesn’t know how to resist. And that’s the best case scenario.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:03 pm
by Square Rob
So, my great fear has been that Dem’s win back the house, and sometime in the next 12 months the stock market crashes due to the deficit drag and djt and the gop scream to the heavens that it’s the dem’s fault. Trump rides that to a near victory in his re-election campaign over surprise candidate Sherrod brown. Dems don’t gain any ground in a more favorable senate map, and gop has control for a decade.
Just saying that, because, well, fuck.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:08 pm
by Johnnie
Blackburn wins Tennessee. So much for Taylor Swift.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:10 pm
by tennbengal
If Brat indeed lost in Richmond, va, that makes up a little for McGrath coming up short.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:16 pm
by brian
I will say this. Looks like Beto is going to lose narrowly tonight and I hope he announces he’s running for President tomorrow.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:18 pm
by mister d
If I added up
this model correctly, his current +25 was a 17% chance. At some point either polling/projection is broken or the vote counts themselves are.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:31 pm
by The Sybian
Square Rob wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:03 pm
So, my great fear has been that Dem’s win back the house, and sometime in the next 12 months the stock market crashes due to the deficit drag and djt and the gop scream to the heavens that it’s the dem’s fault. Trump rides that to a near victory in his re-election campaign over surprise candidate Sherrod brown. Dems don’t gain any ground in a more favorable senate map, and gop has control for a decade.
Just saying that, because, well, fuck.
100% with you. Well, not sure about the Sherrod Brown part, but the rest of it. Even if the GOP holds both Houses, they will still blame obstructionist Dems for every failure.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:31 pm
by brian
A small bit of good news tonight. And maybe a hopeful sign for Florida, 2020.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:44 pm
by mister d
Why am I not seeing anyone question how that referendum passes in Florida, for an early call, while it appears a race-baiting R will win governor?
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:45 pm
by brian
I see a lot of people lamenting the Dems not winning the Senate but that shit was never happening.
Re: 2018 Midterm Elections
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:48 pm
by tennbengal
mister d wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:44 pm
Why am I not seeing anyone question how that referendum passes in Florida, for an early call, while it appears a race-baiting R will win governor?
I heartily welcome you to team raised eyebrow.