The Swamp

Glad to see you guys leaning into the relatively good news out there.

And while this news is horrible, it sure isn't a good thing for Trump to have the headlines be this negative weeks from election day:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... c6UsuAAyKI

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:07 pm We need massive storms to hit Central PA on November 3.

C'mon Steve! I still need to vote. The wife did the mail-in. I didn't update my address yet so I'm heading back out to MAGA land to fill my ballot in personally.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:30 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:09 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:13 pm Now he just said “there’s institutional racism in this country.”

These corporate centrists are terrible.

I noticed you had no response to how great they're doing to my post here.

Didn’t realize I needed to. The Nation and a red-rose tweeter are complaining about Dems. Dog bites man.

Specifically, Biden doesn’t favor a fracking ban. But he apparently promotes transitioning off fossil fuels. I’m ok with that. (Ecstatic that he said the second part out loud; I hope his taking such a clearly progressive stance doesn’t cost him.)

Barrett? The Rs have a majority. She’s getting confirmed.

You know how you prevent that? You make sure Dems beat Rs. You don’t vote for the Green Party and you shame the fuck out of people who do.

Maybe the Dems at the confirmation hearings, you know, try to shame others out of confirming her by pointing out how terribly unqualified she is, much less her worse attributes. Or, just lay down. You're right, laying down is better because there's always an excuse.

Good thing fracking isn't destroying the environment for a fossil fuel.

Its wild to imagine even for a week the Democrats treating the Republicans the same way the Republicans treat them.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:01 pmMaybe the Dems at the confirmation hearings, you know, try to shame others out of confirming her by pointing out how terribly unqualified she is, much less her worse attributes.

Thats pretty much exactly what they did. Weren’t you watching?

According to Wiki, the combined amount of votes for Trump, Clinton, and all others was around 136.6 million. (Trump and Clinton were 129 million, respectively.)

As of today, nearly 53 million votes have been cast. That's about 39%. A LOT of people want to vote this time around. That's pretty cool.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vo ... index.html

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:40 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:01 pmMaybe the Dems at the confirmation hearings, you know, try to shame others out of confirming her by pointing out how terribly unqualified she is, much less her worse attributes.

Thats pretty much exactly what they did. Weren’t you watching?

Best! Hearing! Ever!

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:27 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:40 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:01 pmMaybe the Dems at the confirmation hearings, you know, try to shame others out of confirming her by pointing out how terribly unqualified she is, much less her worse attributes.

Thats pretty much exactly what they did. Weren’t you watching?

Best! Hearing! Ever!

Were Republicans going to vote her down before Feinstein hugged whoever she was hugging there?

She's hugging Lindsey Graham. A dude who literally refused a COVID test specifically to make sure enough people could be present without delaying the hearing.

That hug and her praise of Lindsey Graham overshadowed everything else.

She's a fucking piece of shit.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:38 pmWere Republicans going to vote her down before Feinstein hugged whoever she was hugging there?

They were probably going to vote to confirm even if every Dem senator lined up and sucked Graham's dick so why not do that too.

How do you not grasp this should be 100% adversarial and that every fucking Dem senator should be furious this is happening rather than congratulating the Republicans because they really had a blast during the process? They aren't fighting for us. Whether its by choice or by nature or by intent, it doesn't matter.

Maybe she was giving him the Heimlich

Finally someone stops singing Feinstein's praises around here!

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:38 pmWere Republicans going to vote her down before Feinstein hugged whoever she was hugging there?

So I take it the answer is no?

FWIW, and it’s entirely subjective I know, but last time around I barely saw a single Hillary sign in these parts. Now Biden/Harris signs outnumber Trump signs by 10/1, at least. Now, we live a block away from the university, but on our street alone it’s 12-0.

And while it’s still likely a lean Tubberville, there a lot of optimism still about Doug Jones. Tubberville’s commercials have been awful, and he’s getting outspent by Jones.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still likely a Trump and Tubberville sweep in Alabama, but the eyeball test on the ground is entirely different.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:40 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:38 pmWere Republicans going to vote her down before Feinstein hugged whoever she was hugging there?

So I take it the answer is no?

If you can't win because they game the system against you over and over and over, what choice do you have left but to happily launder their reputations for them? I know rushing through a confirmation polled very unpopularly so when you can lend a hand, you reach across the aisle and lend that hand! Hard to argue, Steve!

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:25 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:40 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:38 pmWere Republicans going to vote her down before Feinstein hugged whoever she was hugging there?

So I take it the answer is no?

If you can't win because they game the system against you over and over and over, what choice do you have left but to happily launder their reputations for them? I know rushing through a confirmation polled very unpopularly so when you can lend a hand, you reach across the aisle and lend that hand! Hard to argue, Steve!

Oh FFS. Lindsey Graham’s reputation has been laundered now? Because a few obsessives saw a photo on the web?

These complaints always end up being some variant of the underwear gnomes thing. Step 1, the Dems act meaner in their personal dealings on the Senate floor. Step 2, ??? Step 3, Barrett doesn’t get confirmed. And there is never any explanation for what step two is or evidence that it actually accomplishes anything.

And hell, the Rs aren’t even gaming the system right now. Enough people believed four years ago that it just wasn’t that important for Republicans to be kept out of power.

How is it that so many of the folks complaining loudest about what the Dems are or aren’t doing now also happen to be the ones who’ve argued that Dem victories aren’t that important or defending folks who chose to vote Green or stay home.

Square Rob wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:14 pm FWIW, and it’s entirely subjective I know, but last time around I barely saw a single Hillary sign in these parts. Now Biden/Harris signs outnumber Trump signs by 10/1, at least. Now, we live a block away from the university, but on our street alone it’s 12-0.

And while it’s still likely a lean Tubberville, there a lot of optimism still about Doug Jones. Tubberville’s commercials have been awful, and he’s getting outspent by Jones.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still likely a Trump and Tubberville sweep in Alabama, but the eyeball test on the ground is entirely different.

Welcome to the world of living in a bubble. I don't actually know what Trump's yard signs look like because I haven't seen one.

Rex wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:10 pm

Square Rob wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:14 pm FWIW, and it’s entirely subjective I know, but last time around I barely saw a single Hillary sign in these parts. Now Biden/Harris signs outnumber Trump signs by 10/1, at least. Now, we live a block away from the university, but on our street alone it’s 12-0.

And while it’s still likely a lean Tubberville, there a lot of optimism still about Doug Jones. Tubberville’s commercials have been awful, and he’s getting outspent by Jones.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still likely a Trump and Tubberville sweep in Alabama, but the eyeball test on the ground is entirely different.

Welcome to the world of living in a bubble. I don't actually know what Trump's yard signs look like because I haven't seen one.

Our road trip to the FL Panhandle took us to and through a whole lot of MAGA land. The folks with just one Trump sign were no big deal. But the places with multiple signs, flags, etc were literally frightening. It was such a relief to get back to my little bubble here and see a Biden-Harris sign every three or four houses.

Rex wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:10 pm

Square Rob wrote: ↑Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:14 pm FWIW, and it’s entirely subjective I know, but last time around I barely saw a single Hillary sign in these parts. Now Biden/Harris signs outnumber Trump signs by 10/1, at least. Now, we live a block away from the university, but on our street alone it’s 12-0.

And while it’s still likely a lean Tubberville, there a lot of optimism still about Doug Jones. Tubberville’s commercials have been awful, and he’s getting outspent by Jones.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s still likely a Trump and Tubberville sweep in Alabama, but the eyeball test on the ground is entirely different.

Welcome to the world of living in a bubble. I don't actually know what Trump's yard signs look like because I haven't seen one.

Theres a couple in Moores Mill Rd area. Still way less than last time around and they are probably outnumbered by 3-4 Biden signs. Just not a lot of outward enthusiasm in a reddish area of a blue ring around 285 in a red state. Biden has a shot in georgia but he won't bring the two senate seats with him because of runoffs. That's gonna get plenty ugly for the runoff with the senate on the line. With trump off the ballot don't think Dems will get the turnout to turn either seat. Doug collins seems kinda reasonable, though Loeffler would make anyone look that way.

👀

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:35 am 👀

Methinks this should be getting more traction. That number likely puts MI in the Hillary column in 2016, and NC and FL are nothing to sneeze at here. Combining this demo change with the white suburban women running away from Trump (figuratively and quite possibly literally) it seems that the polls might be more effectively calibrated this cycle.

I tasted bile when I saw the 2020 in red though. Poor data visualization technique.

I know the Lincoln Project is problematic and what not, but this response to the ball being placed on the tee by Jared and Ivanka and Trump world over the billboards in Times Square is rather chef's kiss:

Biden still seems pretty genuine to me:

cerrano wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:15 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:35 am 👀

Methinks this should be getting more traction. That number likely puts MI in the Hillary column in 2016, and NC and FL are nothing to sneeze at here. Combining this demo change with the white suburban women running away from Trump (figuratively and quite possibly literally) it seems that the polls might be more effectively calibrated this cycle.

But how can you draw any conclusions on that info? Is that more or less than other age groups? Is that a reflection of covid fears or voter enthusiasm? It's just numbers in a vacuum.

cerrano wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:15 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:35 am 👀

Methinks this should be getting more traction. That number likely puts MI in the Hillary column in 2016, and NC and FL are nothing to sneeze at here. Combining this demo change with the white suburban women running away from Trump (figuratively and quite possibly literally) it seems that the polls might be more effectively calibrated this cycle.

But remember, this is just a comparison of 2020 early vote with 2016 early vote. It’s clearly not bad news at all, but I don’t think we’ll know for a while how good it really is.

It seems to me that ever since early voting became a thing, Dems have been more likely to use it than Rs, so the early returns show big Dem leads that slowly diminish as the night goes on (or as in 2016, disappear entirely).

Edit: What Citgo said.

Isn't it good just because it shows that the elusive youth vote is turning out in massive numbers compared to the same timeframe four years ago? It isn't saying anything about other groups - but it is certainly positive as regards getting the youngest voters out in much larger numbers - and those are gonna be heavily Biden voters.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:32 pm Isn't it good just because it shows that the elusive youth vote is turning out in massive numbers compared to the same timeframe four years ago? It isn't saying anything about other groups - but it is certainly positive as regards getting the youngest voters out in much larger numbers - and those are gonna be heavily Biden voters.

I think that depends - was early voting much of a thing in these states in 2016? The number of early voters from Michigan in 16 is so low that I assume the whole concept was really rare or restricted.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:42 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:32 pm Isn't it good just because it shows that the elusive youth vote is turning out in massive numbers compared to the same timeframe four years ago? It isn't saying anything about other groups - but it is certainly positive as regards getting the youngest voters out in much larger numbers - and those are gonna be heavily Biden voters.

I think that depends - was early voting much of a thing in these states in 2016? The number of early voters from Michigan in 16 is so low that I assume the whole concept was really rare or restricted.

Getting 18-29s to the polls - either early, mail, or in person, has been hard as fuck. So, yeah, those are rather astounding numbers.

my 70+ yr old parents just waited >3.5 hours in line today to vote. This in Amherst NY, huge suburb just NE of Buffalo. Make of it what you will - my dad (old-school liberal) seems to be heartened by the whole thing.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:22 pm

cerrano wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:15 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:35 am 👀

Methinks this should be getting more traction. That number likely puts MI in the Hillary column in 2016, and NC and FL are nothing to sneeze at here. Combining this demo change with the white suburban women running away from Trump (figuratively and quite possibly literally) it seems that the polls might be more effectively calibrated this cycle.

But how can you draw any conclusions on that info? Is that more or less than other age groups? Is that a reflection of covid fears or voter enthusiasm? It's just numbers in a vacuum.

What Bengal said. But if a certain demo is voting at 5 or 6 times the rate they did last election and they tend to track one way or the other, I think it’s something towards which attention should be paid. We’re talking significant deviations with these numbers.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:26 pm

cerrano wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:15 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:35 am 👀

Methinks this should be getting more traction. That number likely puts MI in the Hillary column in 2016, and NC and FL are nothing to sneeze at here. Combining this demo change with the white suburban women running away from Trump (figuratively and quite possibly literally) it seems that the polls might be more effectively calibrated this cycle.

But remember, this is just a comparison of 2020 early vote with 2016 early vote. It’s clearly not bad news at all, but I don’t think we’ll know for a while how good it really is.

It seems to me that ever since early voting became a thing, Dems have been more likely to use it than Rs, so the early returns show big Dem leads that slowly diminish as the night goes on (or as in 2016, disappear entirely).

Edit: What Citgo said.

I don't know how much this is going to help Biden.. Right away you see the age group and think that is bad for Trump, but looking at Facebook and TikTok there are alot of young people that are for Trump. Unlike 2008.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:19 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 1:26 pm

cerrano wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:15 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:35 am 👀

Methinks this should be getting more traction. That number likely puts MI in the Hillary column in 2016, and NC and FL are nothing to sneeze at here. Combining this demo change with the white suburban women running away from Trump (figuratively and quite possibly literally) it seems that the polls might be more effectively calibrated this cycle.

But remember, this is just a comparison of 2020 early vote with 2016 early vote. It’s clearly not bad news at all, but I don’t think we’ll know for a while how good it really is.

It seems to me that ever since early voting became a thing, Dems have been more likely to use it than Rs, so the early returns show big Dem leads that slowly diminish as the night goes on (or as in 2016, disappear entirely).

Edit: What Citgo said.

I don't know how much this is going to help Biden.. Right away you see the age group and think that is bad for Trump, but looking at Facebook and TikTok there are alot of young people that are for Trump. Unlike 2008.

Your mistake is in thinking Facebook is a good representation of young people, or that people clicking Like or Laugh on a meme is indicative of voter trends.

LOL - the generation that has come of age under school shootings and school shooting drills isn't going for Trump. Just, stop.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:19 pmI don't know how much this is going to help Biden.. Right away you see the age group and think that is bad for Trump, but looking at Facebook and TikTok there are alot of young people that are for Trump. Unlike 2008.

Dude. Remember how fucking huge this country is. There are a lot of people for anything you can possibly imagine. And lots of things you can't.

The question isn't whether there are a "lot" of people for Trump. He's going to get 65 million fucking votes. That is a lot of people.

The question is whether the majority of a certain group are going to vote for Trump. And Trump is wildly unpopular with younger voters, so the more younger voters who cast ballots, the better off it is for the Dems. Yes, a lot of those younger voters will vote for Trump. But even more of them will vote for Biden.

If you look in the right places there are a lot of young people really into Catholicism and celibacy.

The vast majority of the Florida 18-29 vote who has now come of age after going through the Stoneman-Douglas school shooting is CLEARLY voting for Trump. I mean, there is no other logical conclusion.

Shit Like this gives me more hope then a poll that says 257k people without knowing much more..



And, I am not saying Biden won't win that vote, but I honestly think people are underestimating how many will vote for Trump, especially the young guys.