The Swamp

Yeah.

And +7 in MI (with a topline of 51).

COVID spiking big-time in WI and MI (which are two states where in-person voting will be critical). That's going to swing people to Biden and depress Trump voters from getting out to the polls.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:29 am COVID spiking big-time in WI and MI (which are two states where in-person voting will be critical). That's going to swing people to Biden and depress Trump voters from getting out to the polls.

If it really does go down like that, then Trump has himself to blame - literally -as Covid cases are spiking in the wake of where he holds rallies.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:29 am COVID spiking big-time in WI and MI (which are two states where in-person voting will be critical). That's going to swing people to Biden and depress Trump voters from getting out to the polls.

Unfortunately, it'll depress votes from people who are more likely to vote Biden, as Trump has his people convinced the virus isn't dangerous. In-person voting is going to heavily favor Trump, and I don't think many of his supporters will be scared off by a virus thanks to his rhetoric. But who knows, we have no precedence for ANYTHING in this year's election. I am still nervous about the reports of Russia hacking into local election boards, I really hope they can't get into anything involved in vote counting.

The Sybian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 6:40 am... voting Dems means the party gets away with their bullshit and continuing on in serving their corporate masters ...

This appears to assume that if the Dems lose, they will become independent of their corporate masters.

Is there any evidence for that?

It seems like the opposite happened after Dem losses in 80/84/88 and 00/04. And no one here seems to think the Dems stopped serving their corporate masters after 2016, right?

The Sybian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:33 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:29 am COVID spiking big-time in WI and MI (which are two states where in-person voting will be critical). That's going to swing people to Biden and depress Trump voters from getting out to the polls.

Unfortunately, it'll depress votes from people who are more likely to vote Biden, as Trump has his people convinced the virus isn't dangerous. In-person voting is going to heavily favor Trump, and I don't think many of his supporters will be scared off by a virus thanks to his rhetoric. But who knows, we have no precedence for ANYTHING in this year's election. I am still nervous about the reports of Russia hacking into local election boards, I really hope they can't get into anything involved in vote counting.

This is all wrong, frankly. The part of the state in Wisconsin where it is burning most out of control is the reddest part of the state - and in-person voting for Trump supporters is going to be harder there.

Also, whether Texas is gettable or not, this is a sea change from the usual voting turnout in that state:

If I'm Joe Biden and I get Texas, my first executive order is making Whataburger the national burger and visiting Corpus Christi and San Antonio as soon as possible.

Hell, I'd even light up the White House in the trademark orange color for a week to celebrate.

Since I am trying to beat back two days of Sup Ct despair, I will keep posting things for glimmers of hope today:



Monmouth is a really solid poster and that is a six-point swing from their previous poll. Yowza.

Can I predict the first election day cable news "shocker" will be shorter lines in places where people have been voting by mail and how that's definitely a terrible sign for Biden? "In 2016, the line was almost twice this long at 6:00 PM" type shit.

I am guessing you have not been paying attention to the numerous stories/polls that have shown that trump's strength is with people voting on election day

I'm guessing you haven't paid attention to the fact that cable news does and will continue to do everything possible to keep it a horse race and that a shorter line in, say, Cleveland will get massive attention.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:05 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:51 pm 21 bucks for a 1.75. It’s not macallan but I like it at least as good as dewards. I will occasionally buy a good scotch but it isn’t my go to. Give the kirklands a try. In my state you don’t have to be a member for the liquor store.

If nothing else you’ll have something to serve to guests if it isn’t your bag.

(Also I’m a quantity over quality guy in nearly every respect except good craft beers)

Thanks for the head’s up. I’ll give it a go.

The most interesting and insightful exchange in this thread over the last few days.

/being a dick

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:10 pm I'm guessing you haven't paid attention to the fact that cable news does and will continue to do everything possible to keep it a horse race and that a shorter line in, say, Cleveland will get massive attention.

stop being obtuse to troll

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:55 am

The Sybian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:33 am

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:29 am COVID spiking big-time in WI and MI (which are two states where in-person voting will be critical). That's going to swing people to Biden and depress Trump voters from getting out to the polls.

Unfortunately, it'll depress votes from people who are more likely to vote Biden, as Trump has his people convinced the virus isn't dangerous. In-person voting is going to heavily favor Trump, and I don't think many of his supporters will be scared off by a virus thanks to his rhetoric. But who knows, we have no precedence for ANYTHING in this year's election. I am still nervous about the reports of Russia hacking into local election boards, I really hope they can't get into anything involved in vote counting.

This is all wrong, frankly. The part of the state in Wisconsin where it is burning most out of control is the reddest part of the state - and in-person voting for Trump supporters is going to be harder there.

Yeah, what I meant was someone voting for Trump is more likely to believe it's safe or worth risking going in person, while a Biden voter is more likely to take the virus seriously and avoid public places. I was thinking on the individual person level. Ideally, Dems and Biden voters are more likely to vote early and hopefully early enough to make sure their votes are counted.

Just heard a heartbreaking story on Preet Bharara's podcast about a terminal cancer patient hoping to live long enough to vote. His family got him to a drop box and he was thrilled to vote before he died. 8 days later he died, then the family received notice that his vote wouldn't count because he wasn't alive on election day. It kind of makes sense, but the story was tough to hear.

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:12 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:10 pm I'm guessing you haven't paid attention to the fact that cable news does and will continue to do everything possible to keep it a horse race and that a shorter line in, say, Cleveland will get massive attention.

stop being obtuse to troll

What part is a troll? Do you not think I'll be able to reference exactly what I said above in 6 days?

Just heard a heartbreaking story on Preet Bharara's podcast about a terminal cancer patient hoping to live long enough to vote. His family got him to a drop box and he was thrilled to vote before he died. 8 days later he died, then the family received notice that his vote wouldn't count because he wasn't alive on election day. It kind of makes sense, but the story was tough to hear.

That doesn't make any sense.

Also, in the spring, when the WI Sup Ct mandated in-person voting only, Dems flooded to the polls anyway and swept out one of the Sup Ct justices as I recall. I don't see the people pushing to get Trump out not voting b/c of Covid concerns. They will just do it with a mask on.

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:19 pm

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:12 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:10 pm I'm guessing you haven't paid attention to the fact that cable news does and will continue to do everything possible to keep it a horse race and that a shorter line in, say, Cleveland will get massive attention.

stop being obtuse to troll

What part is a troll? Do you not think I'll be able to reference exactly what I said above in 6 days?

Not unless you're pulling the clip from Fox News, Newsmax or OANN

And I will take this from Marquette polling in WI in a heartbeat:

No choice for 8% is fucking ridiculous. Fuck them.

I assume that includes refusing to participate in the poll, which doesn't seem unreasonable.

This is bad wording all around.

Brontoburglar wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:23 pmNot unless you're pulling the clip from Fox News, Newsmax or OANN

Deal. If I win, your next column has to be titled "Of Course NASCAR Drivers Aren't Racist Athletes (Because Drivers Aren't Athletes)".

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:31 pm No choice for 8% is fucking ridiculous. Fuck them.

Biden at 48% in Marquette is great news. Right at that 50% topline.

BTW, according to Twitter (grain of salt) a bunch of people are saying that poll:

* Hasn't moved in months
* Usually lags other polling data. And we all know what's been happening with COVID the last week or so.

Whatever you say about Biden or the folks running his campaign, definitely can't say he's ignored Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Oct 28, 2020 1:46 pm Whatever you say about Biden or the folks running his campaign, definitely can't say he's ignored Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.

He kinda ignored Wisconsin when he decided not to come there for the convention, not that I am mad about it on a personal level.

Would be really cool if Team Biden or the Lincoln Project honed in on this bullshit:

The Son of Former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy Helped Trump Secure Loans at Deutsche Bank

The old 'she's from Canada...you wouldn't know her...'

I know these ads are preaching to the choir, but this one's good.

The fear porn about voting and counting issues in PA this AM on Twitter is so pervasive it feels coordinated. Except it is coming from well meaning people amplifying the same damn article. Just, enough.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:08 am The fear porn about voting and counting issues in PA this AM on Twitter is so pervasive it feels coordinated. Except it is coming from well meaning people amplifying the same damn article. Just, enough.

I keep vacillating wildly from "The Dems are going to have 55 Senate seats!" to "We're so fucked when Trump is re-elected!"

I'm really glad that four years ago I had something else to focus on and freak out about up until a few days before the election.

I still can't believe it's that close, just blows my mind how many people can still vote for Trump with all the BS the man throws.

I'm surprised Romney ended up losing by as much as he did in 2012.

So what they're saying is the polls have missed the last two elections by pretty massive margins?

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:34 pm So what they're saying is the polls have missed the last two elections by pretty massive margins?

No, Clinton was +3.5 in 2016

I don't know how you guys can take it.

Your election's got me so stressed that I need to go meditate.

brian wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:35 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:34 pm So what they're saying is the polls have missed the last two elections by pretty massive margins?

No, Clinton was +3.5 in 2016

And then lost the election by more than two states.