The Swamp

brian wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:35 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:34 pm So what they're saying is the polls have missed the last two elections by pretty massive margins?

No, Clinton was +3.5 in 2016

She was +2.1 (48.2 - 46.1). There was a lot of late movement, and the national polling average ended up being within one point of that.

Obama ended up winning by 3.9. I have my questions about that 538 polling average stat, because back then the Republicans were all talking about "unskewing the polls" - because the polls were showing Obama winning. I recall following fairly closely, and I don't remember Obama trailing in the last week.

There was a polling error chart floating on Twitter a few days ago that compared the polling errors in individual states in 2012 and 2016 that would answer what you are getting at.

Basically, Biden’s current polling leads in states puts him above 270 even if the exact same polling error from 2016 applied now (ignoring that pollsters changed their weighting this go around to account for that issue).

Here you go Mr D - expand the tweet to see a good chunk of states:

For what it's worth, here's an article from 538 on Election Day 2012.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no ... nger-odds/

Obama had gained 1.5 points in the national polls, and was now (then) leading by 1.6.

But in the battleground states, I guess Obama had already been leading, and the reason he was favored was because he had a solid enough lead in Ohio.

Damn.

Nate Silver predicted that Obama's "most likely margin of victory [would] be two or three percentage points." He ended up +3.9.

FWIW, here's an article from October 24, with the race basically tied: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/oc ... e-stopped/

Ha.

Muting "mail" and "mail-in" from my twitter timeline was necessary for mental self-care this AM.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:08 am The fear porn about voting and counting issues in PA this AM on Twitter is so pervasive it feels coordinated. Except it is coming from well meaning people amplifying the same damn article. Just, enough.

It's also beside the point, because if the race really comes down to counting votes in PA, everyone will have lost. Even if Biden prevails in that count, his win will be somewhat hollow if he doesn't flip at least one of the sun belt states. I think the Ds are basically dead meat if they don't prove that the sun belt suburban rebellion is a real thing.

So my polling question above is do they ever ask 4 way decided polling so we can see Biden/Trump and mail/in-person splits. Knowing ahead of time where Biden should be sitting once PA polls close seems really, really important. Like should he already have cleared or do we know he might have 2% of his total vote outstanding?

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:16 am So my polling question above is do they ever ask 4 way decided polling so we can see Biden/Trump and mail/in-person splits. Knowing ahead of time where Biden should be sitting once PA polls close seems really, really important. Like should he already have cleared or do we know he might have 2% of his total vote outstanding?

Everything I have seen is that if the vote is reported with mail-ins not being counted until after the day of votes Biden will be SIGNIFICANTLY behind - giving the Sup Ct/ WH the argument that Trump is the real winner and that it is being stolen.

Gregg Popovich for president, with Steve Kerr as VP!

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:25 amEverything I have seen is that if the vote is reported with mail-ins not being counted until after the day of votes Biden will be SIGNIFICANTLY behind - giving the Sup Ct/ WH the argument that Trump is the real winner and that it is being stolen.

Which means we have to trust that non-Fox sources will be on top of this from the absolute start versus spinning the "wow, this is unexpected" narrative.

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:51 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:25 amEverything I have seen is that if the vote is reported with mail-ins not being counted until after the day of votes Biden will be SIGNIFICANTLY behind - giving the Sup Ct/ WH the argument that Trump is the real winner and that it is being stolen.

Which means we have to trust that non-Fox sources will be on top of this from the absolute start versus spinning the "wow, this is unexpected" narrative.

Yes. I've seen multiple tweets from experts trying to make that plain to the other major networks. Whether they will communicate that clearly is TBD.

A Biden win in NC would go a LONG way toward removing PA worries on Tuesday night...

The REAL fucked up thing is that this would all be avoided if the votes were allowed to be counted as they're received, which is what most mail-in states do. But the GOP legislatures in WI, MI and PA insisted votes can't be counted until Election Day precisely to try and gin up the narrative that Trump won and only "late" votes are the result of Biden pulling ahead later. The only bright side is the usually the Secretaries of State that manage elections aren't as ridiculous as Kathleen Harris was in FL in 2000 (i.e. they really take the job of making sure all valid votes are counted seriously)

PA is strange because it's up to each county to decide when to start counting. Philly (the city itself is its own county) is starting its mail-in count at 7 am on Election Day, so a larger share than normal there can auger good results.

Finding recent early voting numbers in Philly is a little difficult, as there's obviously some other shit going on right now.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:22 pm PA is strange because it's up to each county to decide when to start counting. Philly (the city itself is its own county) is starting its mail-in count at 7 am on Election Day, so a larger share than normal there can auger good results.

Finding recent early voting numbers in Philly is a little difficult, as there's obviously some other shit going on right now.

Yeah Kentucky can start at 8 AM Tuesday. And given that it's literally a scanning machine I would think that most of those are going to be input before the 6 PM close of polls.

It's Trump talking out of his ass. Why would the court save him of all people. No matter what side you are on the institutions are still there, these people are still judges who uphold the law. We can see this from recent court decisions on PA and NC on voting regulations.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:34 am Gregg Popovich for president, with Steve Kerr as VP!

Should have filed a few years ago...

My wife and have decided to stay off social media and avoid the news starting at about 6pm on Tuesday. Watching is not going to change anything (we both voted this morning) and I can just doom scroll through Twitter on Wednesday morning.

One of my friends suggested another Zoom happy hour since our group hasn't done one in about 3-4 months. Another guy suggested 9:30pm Tuesday and I immediately responded that I was a hard pass for that night.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:09 pm A Biden win in NC would go a LONG way toward removing PA worries on Tuesday night...

Same with Georgia.

This is almost too obvious a plan to combat Texas' bullshit.

Awesome idea:

I voted yesterday and there was no line, but Nevada Day (today, the last date of early voting) is historically a really busy day. The dean of Nevada politics, Jon Ralston, estimates that 70 percent of Nevadans will have already voted by Election Day (the Dems are running ahead in Clark County by about 70,000 ballots, which would indicate about a 4 or 5 point win if something crazy doesn't happen.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:34 am Gregg Popovich for president, with Steve Kerr as VP!

Meh. Steve Kerr lost my vote after the Morey thing. He's all of the sudden concerned with speaking out about things if China's involved.

This Michigan/MSU game is nothing but Biden and Trump ads.

brian wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:13 pm This Michigan/MSU game is nothing but Biden and Trump ads.

Watching sports causes me to use the mute button more than any other time. I watch so little live network television, it's very jarring.

Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:37 pm Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

Can you source your material please?

Its not Biden. It was a campaign bus that some campaign workers were on that was harrassed by American Taliban. Biden is in Michigan with Obama at the present.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:57 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:37 pm Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

Can you source your material please?

Fuck man.

"American Taliban" is right.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/democra ... s-on-i-35/

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:57 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:37 pm Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

Can you source your material please?

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:09 pm

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:57 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:37 pm Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

Can you source your material please?

Fuck man.

"American Taliban" is right.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/democra ... s-on-i-35/

It’s unfortunate that those caravans (particularly elections of this magnitude) do not have a significant security detail buttressing the buses. That would put a stop to that nonsense real quick.

eta: I’m surprised this hadn’t happened already.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:02 pm

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:09 pm

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:57 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:37 pm Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

Can you source your material please?

Fuck man.

"American Taliban" is right.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/democra ... s-on-i-35/

It’s unfortunate that those caravans (particularly elections of this magnitude) do not have a significant security detail buttressing the buses. That would put a stop to that nonsense real quick.

eta: I’m surprised this hadn’t happened already.

The cops are on the side of the Nazis. (Or Taliban in this metaphor).

Pruitt wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:09 pm

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:57 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 1:37 pm Biden cancelled an event in Texas today after a Trump supporter tried to run his bus off the road.

This is only going to get worst.

Can you source your material please?

Fuck man.

"American Taliban" is right.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/democra ... s-on-i-35/

And of course Don Jr was encouraging them...

As a check on the doom scrolling and to keep panic from setting in (aimed at me as much as anything), I offer this:

Also, this made me smile. Suck it, Barr: