The Swamp

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:38 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:17 pm Is this thing really going to hit the California coast? May have a new record for most expensive storm if so.

Projections have it basically hitting the entire coast from the border of Mexico up through LA County as far north as Santa Monica and Malibu.

Was just talking to a friend who lives in West Hollywood where they should be getting about 2.5" of rain (probably 12 miles from the coast).

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 2:29 pm Look at the bright side: the petroleum and natural gas companies are profiting more than ever. With even lower corporate taxes than before.

DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:38 pm

Rex wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 1:17 pm Is this thing really going to hit the California coast? May have a new record for most expensive storm if so.

Projections have it basically hitting the entire coast from the border of Mexico up through LA County as far north as Santa Monica and Malibu.

Was just talking to a friend who lives in West Hollywood where they should be getting about 2.5" of rain (probably 12 miles from the coast).

Keg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:13 pm We’re pretty much being ordered not to show up to work. Should be biblical…

Keg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:13 pm We’re pretty much being ordered not to show up to work. Should be biblical…

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 7:34 am I'm no geologist or anything, but doesn't torrential rains on historically dry soil lead to erosion, and more alarming, mudslides? Be safe there, Keg.

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 7:34 am I'm no geologist or anything, but doesn't torrential rains on historically dry soil lead to erosion, and more alarming, mudslides? Be safe there, Keg.

BeckyHammon’s hoodie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 9:30 am

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 7:34 am I'm no geologist or anything, but doesn't torrential rains on historically dry soil lead to erosion, and more alarming, mudslides? Be safe there, Keg.

And inland, intense flash flooding.

Desert cities spend a lot of money to handle intense rains but even the best systems aren’t meant to completely handle a 100-year event.

Depending on the storm track, persistence and the intensity of the rain there’s about 30 million people in Southern California, Phoenix and Las Vegas at risk to catastrophic flooding.

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:41 am Seattle is getting its first dose of smoke for the summer. AQI yesterday was around 150...expected to be the same (or worse) today. The sky is disgusting, and it smells awful. No bike commute for me today...no way I want to be breathing that stuff in.

duff wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 5:07 pm Is that from the fires in eastern Washington? Know someone that lost everything over the weekend.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:23 pm

duff wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 5:07 pm Is that from the fires in eastern Washington? Know someone that lost everything over the weekend.

Oh crap. Where was that?

sancarlos wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:56 pm Chedda, I hope it misses you and destroys Mara Lago.

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:46 pm Will a Cat 4 be the first hurricane we decide to ignore mandatory evacuation orders for? Stay tuned to find out!





My logic is this, the storm appears to be fast moving and not expected to hang around the area for long. We have large-ish oaks in the back but they've been trimmed back within the last year and are still relatively young (and strong, hopefully). Our evacuation spot would be the in laws' house which has much more mature oaks surrounding it, one of which collapsed on the house next door the last time we evacuated. They also got way worse wind than we did, but that's obviously random and not predictive for wherever this one decides to make landfall and it's path through the state. My house is in mandatory evacuation zone A because of how low lying it is. If this thing moves through fast I don't see flooding or storm surge being a huge issue, with the caveat that this projected path is exactly what they've always warned Tampans about (a storm from the south that stays off shore before making landfall north of us). In that scenario the north east quadrant of the storm would push a fuck ton of water into Tampa Bay (between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties) and Hillsborough Bay (the smaller, connected bay between the peninsula of Tampa and the rest of Hillsborough county).

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:01 pm

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:46 pm Will a Cat 4 be the first hurricane we decide to ignore mandatory evacuation orders for? Stay tuned to find out!





My logic is this, the storm appears to be fast moving and not expected to hang around the area for long. We have large-ish oaks in the back but they've been trimmed back within the last year and are still relatively young (and strong, hopefully). Our evacuation spot would be the in laws' house which has much more mature oaks surrounding it, one of which collapsed on the house next door the last time we evacuated. They also got way worse wind than we did, but that's obviously random and not predictive for wherever this one decides to make landfall and it's path through the state. My house is in mandatory evacuation zone A because of how low lying it is. If this thing moves through fast I don't see flooding or storm surge being a huge issue, with the caveat that this projected path is exactly what they've always warned Tampans about (a storm from the south that stays off shore before making landfall north of us). In that scenario the north east quadrant of the storm would push a fuck ton of water into Tampa Bay (between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties) and Hillsborough Bay (the smaller, connected bay between the peninsula of Tampa and the rest of Hillsborough county).

Isn't the problem with oak trees in FL the high water table? Like, you have to go to freakin Gainesville to find basements in residential structures, right?

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:08 pm

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:01 pm

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:46 pm Will a Cat 4 be the first hurricane we decide to ignore mandatory evacuation orders for? Stay tuned to find out!





My logic is this, the storm appears to be fast moving and not expected to hang around the area for long. We have large-ish oaks in the back but they've been trimmed back within the last year and are still relatively young (and strong, hopefully). Our evacuation spot would be the in laws' house which has much more mature oaks surrounding it, one of which collapsed on the house next door the last time we evacuated. They also got way worse wind than we did, but that's obviously random and not predictive for wherever this one decides to make landfall and it's path through the state. My house is in mandatory evacuation zone A because of how low lying it is. If this thing moves through fast I don't see flooding or storm surge being a huge issue, with the caveat that this projected path is exactly what they've always warned Tampans about (a storm from the south that stays off shore before making landfall north of us). In that scenario the north east quadrant of the storm would push a fuck ton of water into Tampa Bay (between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties) and Hillsborough Bay (the smaller, connected bay between the peninsula of Tampa and the rest of Hillsborough county).

Isn't the problem with oak trees in FL the high water table? Like, you have to go to freakin Gainesville to find basements in residential structures, right?

I'd be surprised if Gainesville is even north enough to have basements. I certainly never ran across any during my time as a student there.

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:46 pm Will a Cat 4 be the first hurricane we decide to ignore mandatory evacuation orders for? Stay tuned to find out!





My logic is this, the storm appears to be fast moving and not expected to hang around the area for long. We have large-ish oaks in the back but they've been trimmed back within the last year and are still relatively young (and strong, hopefully). Our evacuation spot would be the in laws' house which has much more mature oaks surrounding it, one of which collapsed on the house next door the last time we evacuated. They also got way worse wind than we did, but that's obviously random and not predictive for wherever this one decides to make landfall and it's path through the state. My house is in mandatory evacuation zone A because of how low lying it is. If this thing moves through fast I don't see flooding or storm surge being a huge issue, with the caveat that this projected path is exactly what they've always warned Tampans about (a storm from the south that stays off shore before making landfall north of us). In that scenario the north east quadrant of the storm would push a fuck ton of water into Tampa Bay (between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties) and Hillsborough Bay (the smaller, connected bay between the peninsula of Tampa and the rest of Hillsborough county).

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:33 pm

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:46 pm Will a Cat 4 be the first hurricane we decide to ignore mandatory evacuation orders for? Stay tuned to find out!





My logic is this, the storm appears to be fast moving and not expected to hang around the area for long. We have large-ish oaks in the back but they've been trimmed back within the last year and are still relatively young (and strong, hopefully). Our evacuation spot would be the in laws' house which has much more mature oaks surrounding it, one of which collapsed on the house next door the last time we evacuated. They also got way worse wind than we did, but that's obviously random and not predictive for wherever this one decides to make landfall and it's path through the state. My house is in mandatory evacuation zone A because of how low lying it is. If this thing moves through fast I don't see flooding or storm surge being a huge issue, with the caveat that this projected path is exactly what they've always warned Tampans about (a storm from the south that stays off shore before making landfall north of us). In that scenario the north east quadrant of the storm would push a fuck ton of water into Tampa Bay (between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties) and Hillsborough Bay (the smaller, connected bay between the peninsula of Tampa and the rest of Hillsborough county).

I don't know how much the storm surge would be affected by the speed of the storm, would that really matter?