The Swamp

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:14 pm**

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:38 pm
Gunpowder wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 1:33 pm
govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:46 pm Will a Cat 4 be the first hurricane we decide to ignore mandatory evacuation orders for? Stay tuned to find out!

My logic is this, the storm appears to be fast moving and not expected to hang around the area for long. We have large-ish oaks in the back but they've been trimmed back within the last year and are still relatively young (and strong, hopefully). Our evacuation spot would be the in laws' house which has much more mature oaks surrounding it, one of which collapsed on the house next door the last time we evacuated. They also got way worse wind than we did, but that's obviously random and not predictive for wherever this one decides to make landfall and it's path through the state. My house is in mandatory evacuation zone A because of how low lying it is. If this thing moves through fast I don't see flooding or storm surge being a huge issue, with the caveat that this projected path is exactly what they've always warned Tampans about (a storm from the south that stays off shore before making landfall north of us). In that scenario the north east quadrant of the storm would push a fuck ton of water into Tampa Bay (between Hillsborough and Pinellas counties) and Hillsborough Bay (the smaller, connected bay between the peninsula of Tampa and the rest of Hillsborough county).
I don't know how much the storm surge would be affected by the speed of the storm, would that really matter?
I suppose I meant flooding more than storm surge, Doug.

Storm surge is a freakin mess to figure out, but what little I know is the lower the low and if it hits when the most vulnerable coastal areas are at high tide (and on a shallow continental shelf), then all hell can break loose. Oh and that and the strength of the storm itself.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:00 pm**

That recent wobble to the west is quite helpful (for us).

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 8:31 am**

A little beside the point but does anybody live in that immediate area where landfall is supposed to happen? It looks super sparse.

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 8:55 am**

The dotted blue line? Not really. I'd say not that many even between the "cone". That coastline doesn't have any/much beaches so it hasn't drawn a lot of population.

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:11 am**

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:00 pm That recent wobble to the west is quite helpful (for us).

Was thinking of you when I saw the movement.

Also, wife is heading down to Destin for a girls trip in a couple of weeks, so this works for that point as well.

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:25 pm**

Ryan wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 8:31 am A little beside the point but does anybody live in that immediate area where landfall is supposed to happen? It looks super sparse.

There is pretty much jack shit there. Originally it was projected to hit Cedar Key, which might no longer exist if it gets hit by a major cane.

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:00 pm**

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:19 pm**

Bout to get Last Island-ed

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1856_Last ... _hurricane

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:49 pm**

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:19 pm Bout to get Last Island-ed

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1856_Last ... _hurricane

Dry Tortuga my ass!

Fascinating read, BTW.

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:04 pm**

Reading that part about the ship reminded me of the honeymoon with the first wife. We took a cruise out of Galveston that left a day or two before Katrina hit. The first night at sea I was convinced we were going to die in a capsized cruise ship. You'd hear glass breaking every 30 seconds or so as the ship would go up and down and then sway violently from side to side.

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:01 pm**

Giff wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 4:04 pm Reading that part about the ship reminded me of the honeymoon with the first wife. We took a cruise out of Galveston that left a day or two before Katrina hit. The first night at sea I was convinced we were going to die in a capsized cruise ship. You'd hear glass breaking every 30 seconds or so as the ship would go up and down and then sway violently from side to side.

Shit. Glad to hear you were okay.

For real!

Posted: **Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:25 pm**

Raining pretty steady. Not all that windy. Forecast calling for constant rain for the next 24 hours or so and no more than about 30 mph winds here.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 7:22 am**

Gusty still. Some of the neighborhood has flooding. High tide is at 2. That's my last concern for my immediate area. Power and internet still on.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 8:13 am**

Hang in there.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 8:14 am**

In laws report same about wind, and there's some rain, but looking like they dodged the worst of it as well.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 10:36 am**

Good luck with cleanup, Chedds!

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 10:51 am**

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:41 am**

This last trip reaffirmed that palm trees are on the list of things that are 100% cool. Any complaints are wrong.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:45 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:41 am This last trip reaffirmed that palm trees are on the list of things that are 100% cool. Any complaints are wrong.

I had to maintain the palm trees in the yard of the house I grew up in high school. I used a pole saw to trip the fronds that needed to be removed. One time, a pretty significant updraft took the saw from my outstretch hands, and it proceeded to drop onto my foot, breaking all the toes except my big one. Hurt like hell.

But other than that, yeah, palm trees are cool.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:16 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:41 am This last trip reaffirmed that palm trees are on the list of things that are 100% cool. Any complaints are wrong.

Being from Canada, there is nothing quite like the feeling of getting off a plane or driving somewhere and seeing the first palm tree.

It's a sign that you have arrived someplace warm.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:30 pm**

Two cool things that aren’t native to where I live, but will do well when planted are lemon trees and palm trees.

Posted: **Wed Aug 30, 2023 3:24 pm**

Posted: **Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:21 am**

We haven't had any rain other than a random three-minute thunderstorm maybe three or four times over the last few months. It's so dark outside my window right now and we're supposed to get some real soaking rain for a few hours, and I couldn't be more excited.

Posted: **Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:27 am**

Giff wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:21 am We haven't had any rain other than a random three-minute thunderstorm maybe three or four times over the last few months. It's so dark outside my window right now and we're supposed to get some real soaking rain for a few hours, and I couldn't be more excited.

They say that as people age they can sometimes feel storms in their bone(s?).

Posted: **Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:32 am**

You know I am home alone and have never emailed my brother about a thunderstorm...

Posted: **Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:43 am**

Yes, but has Mel Tucker?

Posted: **Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:46 am**

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 14, 2023 9:43 am Yes, but has Mel Tucker?

https://www.espn.com/college-football/r ... /401282629

Posted: **Sat Sep 16, 2023 7:38 am**

Well it must be XC season because I’m sitting in the remnants of a hurricane and it’s somehow freezing

Posted: **Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:20 am**

Looks like a tropical storm popped up out of nowhere yesterday and it's gonna direct hit my condo tomorrow morning. Super.

Posted: **Fri Sep 22, 2023 10:30 am**

The #1 and #3 teams in D3 soccer are supposed to square off tomorrow in Mechanicsburg PA. I like to head to those games this time of year as the leaves start to turn orange.

Welp. This storm system is fucking all of that up. They've moved the game forward 4 hours to 11a and it's still less than 50/50 that it gets played at all.

Posted: **Sat Sep 23, 2023 9:34 am**

Got up early, did my weekend chores, had one of the greatest THEC on a hot fresh everything bagel with Swiss and American cheese and SPK, have a cute pup snuggled up against me as I watch #LUTWOL, and Scream Truck is coming between 2 and 3 with a liquor delivery coming between 3 and 5.

The quality of the current weather conditions is entirely based on your perspective*.

*I don’t have kids to entertain.

Posted: **Sat Sep 23, 2023 10:51 am**

Slept in and haven’t left bed watching City. The weather ceases being a positive for me in about five minutes.

Posted: **Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:01 pm**

Tampa is hazy AF today. Canadian wildfire smoke apparently. That's a long effing way for smoke to travel!

Posted: **Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:13 pm**

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Tue Oct 03, 2023 12:01 pm Tampa is hazy AF today. Canadian wildfire smoke apparently. That's a long effing way for smoke to travel!

Snowbird smoke?

Posted: **Tue Oct 03, 2023 1:56 pm**

Picturing an anthropomorphic smoke monster that looks like 1995 Phil Esposito

Posted: **Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:55 am**

Staring down our 4th straight rainy Saturday (at least, I was out of town on 9/16, but I know it definitely rained that Sunday). Dumb.

Posted: **Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:27 am**

rass wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:55 am Staring down our 4th straight rainy Saturday (at least, I was out of town on 9/16, but I know it definitely rained that Sunday). Dumb.

SMH

Posted: **Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:36 am**

rass wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:27 am
rass wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:55 am Staring down our 4th straight rainy Saturday (at least, I was out of town on 9/16, but I know it definitely rained that Sunday). Dumb.
SMH

I know! I desperately need to mow my back yard, but it never dried out from since the Noah’s Ark level rain we had about a month ago.

Posted: **Sat Oct 14, 2023 10:22 am**

rass wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:27 am
rass wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:55 am Staring down our 4th straight rainy Saturday (at least, I was out of town on 9/16, but I know it definitely rained that Sunday). Dumb.
SMH

Whatever you do, avoid looking at the forecast for next Saturday.

Posted: **Mon Oct 16, 2023 6:17 pm**

cerranoredux wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 10:22 am
rass wrote: ↑Sat Oct 14, 2023 9:27 am
rass wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 6:55 am Staring down our 4th straight rainy Saturday (at least, I was out of town on 9/16, but I know it definitely rained that Sunday). Dumb.
SMH
Whatever you do, avoid looking at the forecast for next Saturday.

60% chance of rain. Forecast clear for days on either side of it.

The Swamp

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