The Swamp

Sweet chicken-fried fuck is an amazing turn of phrase.

I can't fathom any sane person not being terrified about this election or being simple enough to think it'll just be about the EC and actual votes.

Don't disagree, but it does give some perspective.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:34 pm I can't fathom any sane person not being terrified about this election or being simple enough to think it'll just be about the EC and actual votes.

I have no doubt that Biden will win the national popular vote. But with the GOP’s built-in Electoral College advantage, the margins between “Biden wins by the biggest popular vote landslide since 1984” and “Trump wins an Electoral College squeaker” are actually pretty narrow. And that’s before you factor in the risk of disenfranchisement, etc.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:42 pm Don't disagree, but it does give some perspective.

But it makes winning a binary analysis. Its not like Trump squeaked it out like both of GW's wins, he was down several points then won with 304.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:29 am

I think a big difference is that most folks disbelieved polls showing a close race in 2016 because we couldn't believe that tens of millions of people would actually vote to elect Donald Trump as President of the United States. So the analysis started from the proposition that of course Hillary would and worked backwards from there. That explains a lot about how various individuals and groups approached the election.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:01 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:42 pm Don't disagree, but it does give some perspective.

But it makes winning a binary analysis. Its not like Trump squeaked it out like both of GW's wins, he was down several points then won with 304.

I heard someone say it was the biggest landslide in history.

Biden is having a big issue in Florida. By 538 account, Trump is going to pull a larger Hispanic vote then he did in 2016 which could mean a win in Florida for Trump.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:24 pm Biden is having a big issue in Florida. By 538 account, Trump is going to pull a larger Hispanic vote then he did in 2016 which could mean a win in Florida for Trump.

Miami Cubans are definitely pretty R. I wonder if the greater Hispanic demo isn't more D.

govmentchedda wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:32 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:24 pm Biden is having a big issue in Florida. By 538 account, Trump is going to pull a larger Hispanic vote then he did in 2016 which could mean a win in Florida for Trump.

Miami Cubans are definitely pretty R. I wonder if the greater Hispanic demo isn't more D.

It's always been about 30% of the Latino votes goes R. This time it could be more as I read somewhere there are more than a dozen Latino candidates running for congress as R. So if they drive voter turnout, they could vote upticket for Trump.

And sadly, I've said this before, old immigrants shit on new immigrants. FYIGM. I believe that while Latinos may sympathize with illegal immigrants and favor a path to citizenship for those already here, large majorities agree with Trump’s policies regarding law and order at the border.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:51 pmAnd sadly, I've said this before, old immigrants shit on new immigrants.

And as soon as they get here, they all shit on the Blacks.

For most of Trump's term, his racism was focused on Latinos, so Latinos were more likely to be opposed to him. But I think the focus on Black Lives this past few months will lead to more Latino opposition to Democrats.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:37 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:51 pmAnd sadly, I've said this before, old immigrants shit on new immigrants.

And as soon as they get here, they all shit on the Blacks.

For most of Trump's term, his racism was focused on Latinos, so Latinos were more likely to be opposed to him. But I think the focus on Black Lives this past few months will lead to more Latino opposition to Democrats.

People from everywhere shit on blacks unfortunately.

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:34 pm I can't fathom any sane person not being terrified about this election or being simple enough to think it'll just be about the EC and actual votes.

Thank god. I was starting to question my sanity.

I truly hope that I/we never come close to the anxiety level of March-November 2020.

What a mindfuck...

OceanMatt wrote: ↑Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:25 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:34 pm I can't fathom any sane person not being terrified about this election or being simple enough to think it'll just be about the EC and actual votes.

Thank god. I was starting to question my sanity.

I truly hope that I/we never come close to the anxiety level of March-November 2020.

What a mindfuck...

Holy shit! Welcome back, Matt!

Will post this here too as this scares the shit out of me.. Roger Stone totally has Trump's ear, so it makes it this much more of a Oh fuck

I guess I'll just keep repeating: Trump has zero sway with the Generals right now. They are not going to do something unconstitutional on his behalf. They think he's fucking moron and he's proven over and over again that he looks down on the military.

You guys need to step back from this doomsday scenario. It's not going to happen.

The only real nightmare is if it’s 2000 all over again but the other way around and say it’s getting well into December while they’re counting votes in PA still or something like that. Trump won’t accept that it wasn’t “stolen” and there will be violence. If the 270 electoral votes are there within 24 hours of Election Day though Trump’s got no outs left other than be dragged out of White House by Secret Service on 1/20/21

Also Trump is a coward, plays a tough guy on tv. First sight of authority he's out of there.
Better chance he resigns and lets Pence run the last 2 months.

For folks interested in Bloomberg’s spending ...

Saw that. Good on him.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:47 am For folks interested in Bloomberg’s spending ...

It's cool, but I wish he would spend it on senate seats or on Pa or Arizona.. I think they are more important for Biden. Also, by all accounts, Florida is more Red right now so I am not sure Biden really has much of a chance in Florida.

Did anyone see Trump's interview with ABC where he said he will invoke some act on Election night that ok police and military to put protesters down? He also said he will negotiate to get a 3rd term as he feels he deserves it.

Because he thinks he deserves it is not a Constitutionally sound argument, even with bootlickers like Alito and Thomas.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:32 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:47 am For folks interested in Bloomberg’s spending ...

It's cool, but I wish he would spend it on senate seats or on Pa or Arizona.. I think they are more important for Biden. Also, by all accounts, Florida is more Red right now so I am not sure Biden really has much of a chance in Florida.

Did anyone see Trump's interview with ABC where he said he will invoke some act on Election night that ok police and military to put protesters down? He also said he will negotiate to get a 3rd term as he feels he deserves it.

If Trump is able to run for a 3rd term, don't you just bring Obama back and smoke him?

If Trump wins another term Obama is probably in jail by 2022.

I have faith that miliary leaders aren't just going to let him "declare martial law."

That's an unlawful order.

We're not just some police force to mobilize because you don't like election results.

Fuck that.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:18 pm I have faith that miliary leaders aren't just going to let him "declare martial law."

That's an unlawful order.

We're not just some police force to mobilize because you don't like election results.

Fuck that.

Sadly I have no faith in anything anymore..

brian wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:59 pm If Trump wins another term Obama is probably in jail by 2022.

No doubt, the way Trump is still on how he spied on him, I am sure if Trump wins another term, he goes after Obama in the first 60 days. He will gut Medicare and Social Security first, and then rule BLM being a terrorist group.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:44 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:18 pm I have faith that miliary leaders aren't just going to let him "declare martial law."

That's an unlawful order.

We're not just some police force to mobilize because you don't like election results.

Fuck that.

Sadly I have no faith in anything anymore..

We'll see what General Milley does when the time comes.

Here comes the bullshit war in October.

Trump said he got 25% of the Black vote, FOX Disagrees..

brian wrote: ↑Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:59 pm If Trump wins another term Obama is probably in jail by 2022.

He ain't doing shit to Obama. Just like he didn't do shit to Hillary.

His followers are lemmings.

Perfect distillation.

He clearly doesn't listen to Joe Rogan.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:58 pm He clearly doesn't listen to Joe Rogan.

I just clicked on a story about this on Mediaite.com, a news aggregation site. Reading the comment section makes me wonder how often I fall for inaccurate stories or narratives, or jump to conclusions of Republicans being nefarious when there are logical and more accurate explanations. The article mentioned Rogan saying he questions Biden's mental capacity because he seems to have some cognitive decline. Half the comments were people who don't know anything about Rogan freaking out that he is a wanna-be Hannity and a shill for Trump, the other half were freaking out about Rogan being an alt-right racist transphobe. Lots of people comparing Joe to Alex Jones, too.

The lefty wingnuts love to play out of context clips of Rogan and attack him as being a transphobe. He has on trans-activists and fully supports people who transition, but as an MMA commentator, he strongly believes trans women should not be allowed to fight against women without announcing they were formerly identified as male. There was a trans female fighter who hid the fact that she transitioned, and Joe was very vocal in saying it was wrong. He backs that with data on the effects of testosterone, bone mass, hand size... that doesn't change when an adult transitions to female, because they had the additional testosterone when their body developed. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't see that as a controversial or hateful stance in any way. He is 100% fine with a female fighter knowingly fighting a trans female fighter, he just doesn't think it's ok to hide the fact.

Not to get off on a Rogan defense rant, but seeing all these Liberals I normally agree with spouting off about somebody they clearly don't listen to, makes me wonder if I fall for the same shit at times. Much like I see Conservatives fall for false premises of Biden's or Obama's goals of destroying America or whatever.

After he signed with Spotify he moved to Texas. I doubt it's to "escape California," but it's really for...the lack of state income tax. (He's right about that shit, btw! Hell, half of the military are "residents of Texas or Florida" because making us pay state taxes is ridiculous on some level, so we get around it. I'm glad that Joe did too.)

But the best part were all of the Righties going "Hell yeah Joe, come to Texas! That would be awesome!"

While he's going to have to forego weed because it isn't legal in any way in Texas which sucks for him, I was happy because he said he would vote for Bernie in the primary. So, yes. Make Texas blue, plz.

I mean....remember that? HE SAID TO BARI WEISS'S STUPID FUCKING FACE HE'D VOTE FOR BERNIE, BERNIE SHARED IT, AND THE INTERNET WENT INTO FULL MELTDOWN.

People are so fucking dumb, man. So of course he's both extremes simultaneously. Nuance is dead.

Heh, nobody smoked weed before it was legal. He ain’t forgoing shit. Actually, wasn’t he smoking on the show with Ron White in Texas? Pretty sure they did. He has been talking about leaving LA for at least 4 years, and the pandemic put him over. I’m not saying taxes weren’t a factor, but I don’t think it’s the main reason.

The Sybian wrote: ↑Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:21 pm. He has been talking about leaving LA for at least 4 years, and the pandemic put him over.

Good thing there’s no pandemic in Texas.