The Swamp

Trump discusses Arnold Palmer's huge unit. What this means for Kamala's gender-affirming care plans.

Early voting started today in Texas and we decided we'd go first thing tomorrow since the wait was at least an hour. I was super stoked to see a ton of signs on both sides, but not a single one for my piece of shit congressman Troy Nehls.

I’m going later today. Started on Saturday and weekday so shouldn’t be as bad.

He even named his child Peg?

Voted this morning. Took like 3 minutes.

Gerald Ford's daughter endorsed Kamala Harris.

Thank God. /s

Johnnie wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:44 pm Gerald Ford's daughter endorsed Kamala Harris.

*This* will finally be the thing that brings Trump down.

govmentchedda wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 12:00 pm Voted this morning. Took like 3 minutes.

I voted today, too. Dropped it off at the library.

Voted today as well no lines. And it was juvenile AF but flipping the bird at the Trumpers at the electioneering boundary line as I left was very satisfying.

Just got our ballots. Will fill out this week. We have a Trumper at the end of the street. No Trump signs like in the past, but he's got the signs for all the down-ballot folks, so nice not to have to research much into them.

i endorse this. when i had my signing-in 4 years ago at the federal office i had to walk out of the room underneath that fucking guy's picture which i proceeded to flip off ... so my anger at a literal inanimate object may have you beat in terms of immaturity.

brian wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 4:39 pm Voted today as well no lines. And it was juvenile AF but flipping the bird at the Trumpers at the electioneering boundary line as I left was very satisfying.

Rush2112 wrote: Mon Oct 21, 2024 10:12 pm Just got our ballots. Will fill out this week. We have a Trumper at the end of the street. No Trump signs like in the past, but he's got the signs for all the down-ballot folks, so nice not to have to research much into them.

I filled mine out last night. FYI there is a podcast called Purplish that is put on by Colorado Public Radio that has an episode that gives a summary of all of the state-wide ballot initiatives (what they do, who is for/opposed, etc.)…it’s about 30 minutes long. I found it helpful.

I got my ballot last week. Will likely do it today. Mail in voting, for everything, is the way to go...can't believe that its not the the standard everywhere. It should be.

And I always use the Voting guide from the local indie newspaper, The Stranger: (The Stranger’s Endorsements for the November 5, 2024 General Election - Vote Now. It Might Be Your Last Chance.

It's very helpful on races like the Insurance Commissioner, and all of the Initiatives.

DaveInSeattle wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 11:58 am I got my ballot last week. Will likely do it today. Mail in voting, for everything, is the way to go...can't believe that its not the the standard everywhere. It should be.

And I always use the Voting guide from the local indie newspaper, The Stranger: (The Stranger’s Endorsements for the November 5, 2024 General Election - Vote Now. It Might Be Your Last Chance.

It's very helpful on races like the Insurance Commissioner, and all of the Initiatives.

There's so much fuckery in Florida with regard to voting that I much prefer to early vote than mail in. For example, my Bush v. Gore (was in law school in Boston) vote didn't count. Pretty sure they said the signatures didn't match, which was 100% bullshit. In this year's primary election, my son's first election as an 18 year old, his mail in ballot didn't count and they gave the same excuse. Luckily, it's really easy to early vote down here.

Its not the standard because republicans in heavily contested states have processes in place to disallow as many ballots as possible in certain counties.

Ive seen almost nothing in terms of ads for non presidential elections. Basically zero. Not quite sure why that is but it does not bode well for Trump. Think there are a lot of disaffected republicans that would hold their noses and vote for trump while they vote for house, senate, local items... but it doesnt seem to be any of that this cycle. The ONLY thing ive heard about is some ballot question on local taxes.

These next two weeks are going to be hell on my nerves.

And, to make matters worse, I’ll be spending election night and the next days with my parents and my brother, none of whom will vote for Harris. (Although I do hold out a bit of hope that my parents might sit it out, at least.)

Planning on voting Sunday morning. Early voting starts Saturday, but playing the odds that lines will be a little shorter the following day.

Dropping off my ballot tonight. They ran 5 political ads in a row last night during Jeopardy. I get a phone call or text every day. What pisses me off the most is the in-person canvassers. Ready for this all to be over.

“Dipshit” in a midwestern accent goes surprisingly hard

I'm glad I use an ad-free version of YouTube on my Fire Stick and find streams online of games that don't seem to have political commercials or else I'd be going nuts.

Oh, and I mailed my vote at least a week ago. Early voting starts pretty early in Arizona.

To be fair, sixty grand sounds like a lot of money to bury someone, fucking Mexican or not.

testuser2 wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 3:34 pm Dropping off my ballot tonight. They ran 5 political ads in a row last night during Jeopardy. I get a phone call or text every day. What pisses me off the most is the in-person canvassers. Ready for this all to be over.

The Pod Saves guys are constantly pushing to get people to canvas, and I always think there has to be a net negative effect. Sure, you might get the random undecided voter who wants to talk, but for everyone of those, you probably get 100 people annoyed at you for knocking and may lose a few votes.

Steve of phpBB wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 6:27 pm To be fair, sixty grand sounds like a lot of money to bury someone, fucking Mexican or not.

I've been part of squadrons that spend more then double that on end of year funds for furniture.

I haven't read the article, but I would think that some of that money would be used on travel for the family.

The Sybian wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 6:55 pm

testuser2 wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 3:34 pm Dropping off my ballot tonight. They ran 5 political ads in a row last night during Jeopardy. I get a phone call or text every day. What pisses me off the most is the in-person canvassers. Ready for this all to be over.

The Pod Saves guys are constantly pushing to get people to canvas, and I always think there has to be a net negative effect. Sure, you might get the random undecided voter who wants to talk, but for everyone of those, you probably get 100 people annoyed at you for knocking and may lose a few votes.

That was my concern when I’ve canvassed for GOTV, but it turned out not to be a problem.

That may be because the few Dems in Utah all have sympathy for each other.

The Sybian wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 6:55 pm

testuser2 wrote: Tue Oct 22, 2024 3:34 pm Dropping off my ballot tonight. They ran 5 political ads in a row last night during Jeopardy. I get a phone call or text every day. What pisses me off the most is the in-person canvassers. Ready for this all to be over.

The Pod Saves guys are constantly pushing to get people to canvas, and I always think there has to be a net negative effect. Sure, you might get the random undecided voter who wants to talk, but for everyone of those, you probably get 100 people annoyed at you for knocking and may lose a few votes.

I make it a point to act as pissed as possible in hopes that they will learn

My sentiments too:

So, having looked through the polls over the last month, is it safe to say that Trump is going to win this thing yet. It certainly looks like it is going that way following Harris' initial surge of support.

Tom 1860 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 12:12 am So, having looked through the polls over the last month, is it safe to say that Trump is going to win this thing yet. It certainly looks like it is going that way following Harris' initial surge of support.

I wouldn’t say that but it is close. However Harris is ahead in PA, MI and WI. If she wins those three that’s basically game over for Trump. He’d have to run the table in the rest of the swing states AND it still might not matter if she wins the NE-1 district.

Tom 1860 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 12:12 am So, having looked through the polls over the last month, is it safe to say that Trump is going to win this thing yet. It certainly looks like it is going that way following Harris' initial surge of support.

I mean, it's still possible. I'm fucking worried. I honestly think there's going to be violence at polling stations this year. (I thought that too in 2020, but I was wrong.)

Johnnie wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 12:35 am

Tom 1860 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 12:12 am So, having looked through the polls over the last month, is it safe to say that Trump is going to win this thing yet. It certainly looks like it is going that way following Harris' initial surge of support.

I mean, it's still possible. I'm fucking worried. I honestly think there's going to be violence at polling stations this year. (I thought that too in 2020, but I was wrong.)

I get the sense that there is much less energy and enthusiasm on the Trump side. I think he has the same number of supporters, but they don’t seem as passionate.

Why are we putting any stock in any polls?

govmentchedda wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 6:41 amWhy are we putting any stock in any polls?

Because many of them have been financed by right-wing sites to lay groundwork for contesting the election ("all the polls said we were ahead") when he loses?

DSafetyGuy wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:15 am

govmentchedda wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 6:41 amWhy are we putting any stock in any polls?

Because many of them have been financed by right-wing sites to lay groundwork for contesting the election ("all the polls said we were ahead") when he loses?

I just read this link from Bluesky about this very topic. Aggregate polls look good for Trump largely because of a bunch of overtly GOP-biased polls put out to make it look like he's winning. https://bad-faith-times.ghost.io/you-ar ... pollsters/

Shirley wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 9:17 am

DSafetyGuy wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:15 am

govmentchedda wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 6:41 amWhy are we putting any stock in any polls?

Because many of them have been financed by right-wing sites to lay groundwork for contesting the election ("all the polls said we were ahead") when he loses?

I just read this link from Bluesky about this very topic. Aggregate polls look good for Trump largely because of a bunch of overtly GOP-biased polls put out to make it look like he's winning. https://bad-faith-times.ghost.io/you-ar ... pollsters/

Yeah, I'm going to take more stock in the massive early voting numbers as a positive sign for Harris than a bunch of slanted polls financed by Peter Thiel.

ETA: I follow that same guy cited above. His article on Garapollo (sp?) a few entries down is illustrative and right in the Swamp wheelhouse.

So I have this theory in my head that I want to put down as a first draft. I'm putting the bulk of it in a spoiler tag because it's scatological in nature, and I wanted to give you a waring in case you were eating.

[+] spoiler

Okay, so let's say we're a park one Saturday with around a hundred other people. All the sudden, a guy gets up and drops trou, and then takes a shit right into his hands. He then starts juggling the shit around. People around him are obviously mortified. And while everyone gets out of the way, lest they get sprayed with shit, there is a sizable amount of people who are still watching out of morbid curiosity. Just out of probability, someone is going to watch it and say, "yeah, that's absolutely disgusting... but he's a pretty good juggler."

If a few days later you ran into a friend and then they asked you "hey, you were at the park this past Saturday. How was it?" What are you going to recall? The couple sharing a Triscuit picnic? The kids tossing a frisbee around? The pups just frolicking around off-leash? No. You're going to remember the guy who took a shit in his hands and started juggling it. It's something our brains naturally latch on. We as a species easier recall things that are scary or disgusting as a natural prevention.

That's social media. It's been engineered to keep pushing that button in our head that would scare or disgust us to keep us on the site. The mewling harpies that are bragging how Trump is way ahead in the polls and the "Demonrats" are ruining America, that's what sticks in our heads. These people are the shit-jugglers. And social media is shit-jugglers right in our face to the point that we think they're widespread, and the people complimenting his juggling ability are widespread, when in reality they're just a tiny but easily noticeable percentage.

When you guys are seeing these "polls" that Trump is surging ahead, that's a manufactured spectacle to get you to stay on a site. Our brains as a species are latching onto bad news, and then expecting it to be much more widespread than it is. In reality, we're the people that are disgusted, and we're a much larger group, but our brains' tendencies to assume bad news is taking over.

Think back to 2020. Was anti-masking really as widespread as we thought? Yeah, in some parts. But we are a country of 330 million people. Law of averages says there were going to be millions of assholes out of that group. The people who were anti-mask were the guy who was juggling shit, not the vast majority of us who are disgusted by it. Our brains were hacked, and social media simply pushed it to the forefront.

People are a little bit wiser to this now. Our brains are latching onto these polls that are showing Trump ahead, without for a second saying "hey, there's been no change in these past few weeks that would shift favor to him".

I'm feeling confident because of that one guy who describes the Thirteen Keys to winning the election. He's predicted with pretty scary accuracy, and he has Harris with the majority of the keys. Now I'm not saying Trump isn't going to try and steal the election again when he loses, but him losing is become more and more likely. And if there is more widespread early voting that portends good for Harris, it's going to become a wipeout.

I have been pretty consistent and remain confident. The economy isn't really helping them as much as it was over the summer.

The key issue driving turnout, women's reproductive rights, have the younger generation fired up and mobilized. I know Gaza is a negative, but basic logic employed on that issue won't keep enough Dems to stay away from voting.

I don't buy these polls... at all.

I need to channel more L-Jam in my life.

Thanks for this - I honestly think I'm going to have maybe 10 hours of decent sleep until after the fking election, and after that who the hell knows.

"Feel" is such a stupid and unscientific terms or vibe but I'll just share that everything *feels* different. Maybe that's the last shreds of hope I have left in my middle-aged self, I don't know.

But in late summer 2016 when we drove down from Vancouver to SF and back over the better part of a week I remember very very clearly not seeing *one* Hillary Clinton bumper sticker or sign/banner, but a whole lot of Shithead-2016 signs. Again: not scientific. But the polls...well, you know. And my feel once we got back to Vancouver was that holy shit we might be really really fucked, and that's when I was truly horrified for the first time. That sadly hasn't left and might never leave me.

But this year although it might not be the complete opposite ...man ... it feels different. I am seeing an absolute fuckton* of Harris/Walz signs - not just in this mostly liberal enclave neighborhood in western new york but even in the shitstained counties around here. Hell even on my drives to Pittsburgh which goes through some rather unenlightened territories there's not as much evil signage.

Yeah there's one massive semi trailer in NW PA right on I-79 that is painted with "Save us from the Communist Takeover" but there will always be yahoos.

The preponderance of good signs are giving me hope and absolutely keeping me at least close to sane. But I really don't think I'm well at all. :/

*again: science.

L-Jam3 wrote: Wed Oct 23, 2024 9:56 am So I have this theory in my head that I want to put down as a first draft. I'm putting the bulk of it in a spoiler tag because it's scatological in nature, and I wanted to give you a waring in case you were eating.

[+] spoiler

Okay, so let's say we're a park one Saturday with around a hundred other people. All the sudden, a guy gets up and drops trou, and then takes a shit right into his hands. He then starts juggling the shit around. People around him are obviously mortified. And while everyone gets out of the way, lest they get sprayed with shit, there is a sizable amount of people who are still watching out of morbid curiosity. Just out of probability, someone is going to watch it and say, "yeah, that's absolutely disgusting... but he's a pretty good juggler."

If a few days later you ran into a friend and then they asked you "hey, you were at the park this past Saturday. How was it?" What are you going to recall? The couple sharing a Triscuit picnic? The kids tossing a frisbee around? The pups just frolicking around off-leash? No. You're going to remember the guy who took a shit in his hands and started juggling it. It's something our brains naturally latch on. We as a species easier recall things that are scary or disgusting as a natural prevention.

That's social media. It's been engineered to keep pushing that button in our head that would scare or disgust us to keep us on the site. The mewling harpies that are bragging how Trump is way ahead in the polls and the "Demonrats" are ruining America, that's what sticks in our heads. These people are the shit-jugglers. And social media is shit-jugglers right in our face to the point that we think they're widespread, and the people complimenting his juggling ability are widespread, when in reality they're just a tiny but easily noticeable percentage.

When you guys are seeing these "polls" that Trump is surging ahead, that's a manufactured spectacle to get you to stay on a site. Our brains as a species are latching onto bad news, and then expecting it to be much more widespread than it is. In reality, we're the people that are disgusted, and we're a much larger group, but our brains' tendencies to assume bad news is taking over.

Think back to 2020. Was anti-masking really as widespread as we thought? Yeah, in some parts. But we are a country of 330 million people. Law of averages says there were going to be millions of assholes out of that group. The people who were anti-mask were the guy who was juggling shit, not the vast majority of us who are disgusted by it. Our brains were hacked, and social media simply pushed it to the forefront.

People are a little bit wiser to this now. Our brains are latching onto these polls that are showing Trump ahead, without for a second saying "hey, there's been no change in these past few weeks that would shift favor to him".

I'm feeling confident because of that one guy who describes the Thirteen Keys to winning the election. He's predicted with pretty scary accuracy, and he has Harris with the majority of the keys. Now I'm not saying Trump isn't going to try and steal the election again when he loses, but him losing is become more and more likely. And if there is more widespread early voting that portends good for Harris, it's going to become a wipeout.