The Swamp

degenerasian wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:11 pm

sancarlos wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:01 pm I'm surprised Steyer and Buttigieg didn't at least wait until the Super Tuesday results to quit.

They want their votes and percentages to go to Biden.

That's probably true of Buttigieg. Not so sure about Steyer. Steyer went all-in on South Carolina with his ad buys and clearly wasn't going to do any better elsewhere.

I feel super sad right now for this lady who lives on my block. She feels the same way about Pete Buttigieg that John Hinckley felt about Jodie Foster. As a result of her fervent canvassing, door-knocking and campaigning, there are literally seven homes within a stone's throw from me with Buttigieg signs on their front lawn. I almost thought she was going to cry when I told her I voted for Warren. So, it goes without saying that the poor woman must be crushed right now.

I love those stories, the people that pour their heart into it.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:34 pm I love those stories, the people that pour their heart into it.

Degen hates old ladies.

I think of all the non-Bernie candidates, Biden is by far the easiest matchup for Trump. In addition to his cognitive decline, the Hunter Biden stuff is not going away. I mean the GOP already built a full-fledged anti-Biden apparatus to defend against impeachment. So it’s concerning to say the least to see the Party coalescing around him so quickly.

Joe K wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:56 pm I think of all the non-Bernie candidates, Biden is by far the easiest matchup for Trump. In addition to his cognitive decline, the Hunter Biden stuff is not going away. I mean the GOP already built a full-fledged anti-Biden apparatus to defend against impeachment. So it’s concerning to say the least to see the Party coalescing around him so quickly.

I don't think "quickly" is the right word. It was pretty clear that Biden was the party's choice even before he entered the race. I think they only got scared - and encouraged Bloomberg to join - after Biden started running a crappy campaign. And maybe the Hunter Biden stuff played a role. I think most of those in the party leadership have always wanted Biden to be the guy. It's just that Saturday was the first time in a while that it seemed possible again.

Biden certainly did better than I expected. It'll be really interesting to see how Tuesday goes now, especially with Buttigieg dropping out.

So Biden actually won Iowa after all. What a mess. Politics is great.

Also, this is a reason for ranked choice voting, btw:



And excellent troll job by Pete:

Why even say anything the first time?

Seems kind of gross that the Buttigieg campaign was sending fundraising texts a couple hours before he dropped out.

Every Warren tweet now is followed by unending comments saying 'drop out'!'

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:21 am Why even say anything the first time?

Is DeBlasio delusional enough to picture himself as a power player within the party?

What a ridiculous comment. I guess it’s now inherently sexist for Bernie to try to win elections.

Fineman is an asshole.

/personal experience.

It'll be great when it turns out Joe promised both Veep.

Joe K wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:28 am

Shirley wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:05 am It's unfortunate that we have Sanders and Warren essentially splitting the more progressive, more angry-with-the-status-quo vote. I like them both, and I like them a LOT more than either Biden or Mayor Pete, and I think a lot of people feel the same way. I have to think that if they were a single candidate, Bernabeth Warders would have damn near locked this thing up already.

Assuming that she does not rally in the polls to re-emerge as a top tier candidate (Biden and Sanders have separated themselves nationally and have a good chance of winning all the early states), Warren will face MASSIVE institutional pressure from the Democratic Party to not endorse Sanders because her endorsement would likely push him past Biden. She'll probably get promised frontrunner treatment in 2024/28 or a pretty prominent spot in a Biden administration -- maybe even VP. In fact, I suspect those talks are already quietly happening.

I posted this about 5 weeks ago. Funny how Warren is still in the race although Pete and Amy have now dropped out.

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:44 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:28 am

Shirley wrote: ↑Sun Jan 26, 2020 11:05 am It's unfortunate that we have Sanders and Warren essentially splitting the more progressive, more angry-with-the-status-quo vote. I like them both, and I like them a LOT more than either Biden or Mayor Pete, and I think a lot of people feel the same way. I have to think that if they were a single candidate, Bernabeth Warders would have damn near locked this thing up already.

Assuming that she does not rally in the polls to re-emerge as a top tier candidate (Biden and Sanders have separated themselves nationally and have a good chance of winning all the early states), Warren will face MASSIVE institutional pressure from the Democratic Party to not endorse Sanders because her endorsement would likely push him past Biden. She'll probably get promised frontrunner treatment in 2024/28 or a pretty prominent spot in a Biden administration -- maybe even VP. In fact, I suspect those talks are already quietly happening.

I posted this about 5 weeks ago. Funny how Warren is still in the race although Pete and Amy have now dropped out.

Interesting. Wonder if Warren figures she's helping one way or the other. Or maybe she figures she'll pick up a bunch Klobuchar voters (because she's the only female left) and make it past 15% in some states (especially California). She wants the balance of power at the convention.

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:36 pm It'll be great when it turns out Joe promised both Veep.

The only joy I could take from this is Joe and Amy bait-and-switching Pete.

What if he actually thinks they're the same person

I suspect Warren will be helped more by Pete dropping out, because a lot of people got hoodwinked by his early tack to the left and think he's progressive. Klobuchar has been touting her centrist/moderate chops the entire thing.

I really don't think the vast majority of women would flip to Warren just because she's the only woman left. People are smarter than that.

Yup. They're circling the wagons. Nevada was the Establishment's wake up call. Clyburn's endorsement was monumental and a turning point.

Now the chaff that lines up with the Establishment is told to go away and get in line now. Because the focus is Bernie. Keep him from getting 1,991 delegates.

They'll use Biden's name recognition to get enough delegates now and then put him over 2,375 delegates on the second vote at the convention with the superdelegates. Bloomberg is only in this to make sure Bernie doesn't get enough the first time. He's got the Fuck You Money to do so.

And then Biden loses in November. I'll be voting for him, but I'm going to laugh my ass off when Trump gets reelected. I really, really am. I guess that's just my white privilege that I can't suppress and not at all anything else.

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:55 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:36 pm It'll be great when it turns out Joe promised both Veep.

The only joy I could take from this is Joe and Amy bait-and-switching Pete.

The funniest possible outcome is Bloomberg’s vanity campaign siphoning enough votes from Biden to put Sanders over the top and Sanders then wealth-taxing Bloomberg into oblivion.

What happens if Biden and Bernie both drop dead from heart attacks in the next two months?

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:59 pm And then Biden loses in November. I'll be voting for him, but I'm going to laugh my ass off when Trump gets reelected. I really, really am. I guess that's just my white privilege that I can't suppress and not at all anything else.

Biden v. Trump is basically re-running the 2016 election only Trump has the incumbency advantage and the Dems are running a far weaker candidate. As critical as I am of Hillary, she runs circles around the 2020 version of Biden. I think Trump would win at least as many Electoral College votes against Biden as he did against Clinton, and probably more.

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:00 pm What happens if Biden and Bernie both drop dead from heart attacks in the next two months?

I guess their pledged delegates become free agents. Isn't that what happened with RFK's?

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:03 pmBiden v. Trump is basically re-running the 2016 election only Trump has the incumbency advantage and the Dems are running a far weaker candidate. As critical as I am of Hillary, she runs circles around the 2020 version of Biden. I think Trump would win at least as many Electoral College votes against Biden as he did against Clinton, and probably more.

And then establishment Dems will blame the left for not working hard enough to get the establishment candidate elected because its can't be their own fault again. Should be a fucking blast.

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:00 pm What happens if Biden and Bernie both drop dead from heart attacks in the next two months?

GOOD GOD. THAT'S CHRIS COONS' MUSIC.

/Good Ol' JR'd

All things considered, Chasten Buttigieg would've been a great First Gentleman.

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:00 pmThe funniest possible outcome is Bloomberg’s vanity campaign siphoning enough votes from Biden to put Sanders over the top and Sanders then wealth-taxing Bloomberg into oblivion.

This thought was posed by Bryan Curtis on The Press Box podcast. He also brought up that after South Carolina there was a legit concern amongst party elites that people need to drop their egos and coalesce around one person now. Pretty prescient conversation.

ETA



Also, I may have called them Bidklobigieg, but I just read them being referred to as "The Human Centristpede" and I'm impressed.

brian wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:00 pm What happens if Biden and Bernie both drop dead from heart attacks in the next two months?

The VP slot is going to be more coveted than ever before.

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:10 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:03 pmBiden v. Trump is basically re-running the 2016 election only Trump has the incumbency advantage and the Dems are running a far weaker candidate. As critical as I am of Hillary, she runs circles around the 2020 version of Biden. I think Trump would win at least as many Electoral College votes against Biden as he did against Clinton, and probably more.

And then establishment Dems will blame the left for not working hard enough to get the establishment candidate elected because its can't be their own fault again. Should be a fucking blast.

I'm kinda curious. For the past few weeks y'all have been telling me that Sanders is going to beat Trump, and you've been citing head to head polls showing him ahead of Trump by 7 or 8 points.

The same polls have been showing Biden ahead of Trump by 7 or 8 points. Why aren't those polls as predictive as the ones showing Sanders ahead?

No good reason.

YOU KNOW THE THING

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:03 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:59 pm And then Biden loses in November. I'll be voting for him, but I'm going to laugh my ass off when Trump gets reelected. I really, really am. I guess that's just my white privilege that I can't suppress and not at all anything else.

Biden v. Trump is basically re-running the 2016 election only Trump has the incumbency advantage and the Dems are running a far weaker candidate. As critical as I am of Hillary, she runs circles around the 2020 version of Biden. I think Trump would win at least as many Electoral College votes against Biden as he did against Clinton, and probably more.

Biden is basically a generic moderate harmless "safe" Democrat. After four years of Trump's chaos, I think a generic moderate harmless "safe" Democrat will beat Trump solidly, because the election will be a referendum on Trump. And Trump is widely hated. Something like 44 percent of the country already strongly disapproves of him.

Biden will not be perceived to be nearly as liberal as Hillary was. And Trump won't be perceived to be nearly as moderate as he was four years ago. So I'd expect results similar to 2018.

Wasn't 2018 when a bunch of progressives picked up shocking victories, both inside the Dem party and then in November?

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:51 pm No good reason.

Either these polls are predictive or they're not, right?

Is there any evidence that Biden's health problems will affect his results in a way that Sanders' (or Trump's) will not?

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:50 pm

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:10 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:03 pmBiden v. Trump is basically re-running the 2016 election only Trump has the incumbency advantage and the Dems are running a far weaker candidate. As critical as I am of Hillary, she runs circles around the 2020 version of Biden. I think Trump would win at least as many Electoral College votes against Biden as he did against Clinton, and probably more.

And then establishment Dems will blame the left for not working hard enough to get the establishment candidate elected because its can't be their own fault again. Should be a fucking blast.

I'm kinda curious. For the past few weeks y'all have been telling me that Sanders is going to beat Trump, and you've been citing head to head polls showing him ahead of Trump by 7 or 8 points.

The same polls have been showing Biden ahead of Trump by 7 or 8 points. Why aren't those polls as predictive as the ones showing Sanders ahead?

I think Sanders is a stronger general election candidate than Biden for three main reasons:

1. He has a much more robust ground game and far larger base of volunteers.

2. To the extent Trump’s appeal to independents is issue-based, as opposed to based on cultural resentments, it comes from his skepticism about free trade, criticism of indefinite wars, and willingness to consider sentencing reform. Biden has significant vulnerabilities on those issues that Sanders doesn’t have.

3. Even people who disagree with his policies tend to view Sanders as a principled man of honesty and integrity. Biden is a serial liar and exaggerator, with very real nepotism issues. That makes it harder to hit Trump for having those same flaws.

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:57 pm Wasn't 2018 when a bunch of progressives picked up shocking victories, both inside the Dem party and then in November?

Sure, some did. But I am pretty sure that where the Dems beat the Republicans in red or purple districts, those were mostly moderates.

Big-name progressives like "the squad" won in seats that were already Democratic.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:59 pmEither these polls are predictive or they're not, right?

Is there any evidence that Biden's health problems will affect his results in a way that Sanders' (or Trump's) will not?

I think they're reflective of point-in-time, not predictive (otherwise you wouldn't keep running them) and that Biden has generally benefited from the larger field and legacy name value. Greater attention and scrutiny and another taxing 8 months won't be kind.