The Swamp

brian wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 4:59 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 4:47 pm I’d consider betting the Game 1 loser to win Game 2 no matter what. Golden State’s mentality against better opposition has typically been to split their road playoff games and win all their home games.

Yeah, I see the logic there. I'm curious to see if there's a market overreaction to a GS loss in Game 1 though. I cleaned up on the Boston-Philly series specifically because the betting markets didn't finally correct until Game 4. My only regret is not taking the Boston ML money I won in Game 1 and just doubling it down in Game 2 instead of just betting the same amount on the ML in Game 2.

Best case scenario for me in this series is probably a GS win in Game 1 and then yeah...I'm going to be inclined to take Houston ML in Game 2 at what will probably be something in the ballpark of +130 or so.

You end up betting Houston tonight? Warriors are developing a clear pattern of having one great performance and one not-so-great one during their first 2 road games of each playoff series. They’ve now split the 2 road games in their last 4 series, with several blowout losses mixed in. They’ve been dominant at Oracle so these bad road games haven’t mattered yet but Houston is good enough to get hot and steal one on the road.

I know it's fun to win championships, but I'm not so sure that Steph Curry loves being the clear number 2. Just something about his overall aura seems off. Maybe he's not 100% healthy.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 8:21 am I know it's fun to win championships, but I'm not so sure that Steph Curry loves being the clear number 2. Just something about his overall aura seems off. Maybe he's not 100% healthy.

I still think Durant signing with the Warriors was at least in part a Nike plot to undermine Curry (and Under Armour) by making a Nike guy the bigger star for that team.

Joe K wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 8:35 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 8:21 am I know it's fun to win championships, but I'm not so sure that Steph Curry loves being the clear number 2. Just something about his overall aura seems off. Maybe he's not 100% healthy.

I still think Durant signing with the Warriors was at least in part a Nike plot to undermine Curry (and Under Armour) by making a Nike guy the bigger star for that team.

On-court play aside, Durant is still the distant #2 in the hearts of the Bay Area fans. Especially the kids.

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed May 16, 2018 10:40 pm

brian wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 4:59 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 4:47 pm I’d consider betting the Game 1 loser to win Game 2 no matter what. Golden State’s mentality against better opposition has typically been to split their road playoff games and win all their home games.

Yeah, I see the logic there. I'm curious to see if there's a market overreaction to a GS loss in Game 1 though. I cleaned up on the Boston-Philly series specifically because the betting markets didn't finally correct until Game 4. My only regret is not taking the Boston ML money I won in Game 1 and just doubling it down in Game 2 instead of just betting the same amount on the ML in Game 2.

Best case scenario for me in this series is probably a GS win in Game 1 and then yeah...I'm going to be inclined to take Houston ML in Game 2 at what will probably be something in the ballpark of +130 or so.

You end up betting Houston tonight? Warriors are developing a clear pattern of having one great performance and one not-so-great one during their first 2 road games of each playoff series. They’ve now split the 2 road games in their last 4 series, with several blowout losses mixed in. They’ve been dominant at Oracle so these bad road games haven’t mattered yet but Houston is good enough to get hot and steal one on the road.

I did, yeah. Got Houston "only" +105 but still nice to cash both bets. Not sure about Game 3 though. I'm not keen on giving Houston +7.

Saw this in a Shea Serrano article:

"which is important because the Warriors are only 1-6 in Durant’s seven highest-scoring games of the season/postseason"


So the strategy is let Durant eat but no one else?

A_B wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 10:55 am Saw this in a Shea Serrano article:

"which is important because the Warriors are only 1-6 in Durant’s seven highest-scoring games of the season/postseason"


So the strategy is let Durant eat but no one else?

Last night, they were in a hole in the third when Durant got rolling. The Warriors were markedly disinterested on defense and I think Durant was taking it upon himself to try to keep them in the game (he was 6/8 FG for 18 points, rest of the team was 4/14 for 11 points in the quarter - Draymond, Curry and Play were 3/9 combined). He is very quietly an ultra-competitive guy along the lines of Jordan, talking to himself while he practices about people who have critiqued him and his work ethic.

Yeah this smells like a "the Falcons are 33-1 when they outrush their opponents in the 4th quarter" thing. Also, Curry missed all but one of those games in the regular season

Ryan wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 12:02 pm Yeah this smells like a "the Falcons are 33-1 when they outrush their opponents in the 4th quarter" thing. Also, Curry missed all but one of those games in the regular season

Certainly that's possible. But he also has 1 assist total in the first two games. So there's definitely some ball stoppage/other guys being guarded more closely going on there.

Durant is way more consistent than Curry or Thompson on a game-to-game basis. All three are very efficient over the long run, but Steph and Curry are much more streaky. So I suspect those losses may be games where KD shot a lot because Steph and/or Klay were struggling (or injured).

All I know is the Warriors are 1-0 in this series when Draymond shoves a guy in the neck in the first minute. Gotta get back to basics.

Rex wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 1:29 pm All I know is the Warriors are 1-0 in this series when Draymond shoves a guy in the neck in the first minute. Gotta get back to basics.

It's nice to know it's pretty much impossible to get a second technical after a completely unprovoked shove to get your first.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 12:04 pm

Ryan wrote: ↑Thu May 17, 2018 12:02 pm Yeah this smells like a "the Falcons are 33-1 when they outrush their opponents in the 4th quarter" thing. Also, Curry missed all but one of those games in the regular season

Certainly that's possible. But he also has 1 assist total in the first two games. So there's definitely some ball stoppage/other guys being guarded more closely going on there.

37.5 points per game on 55% FG, 46% 3FG, 15/15 FT. If I was Steve Kerr, I'd get mad if Durant passed up looks (and he only took three more shots than Curry last night). Yes, he's been taking 6.5 more FGA a game than his season average, but with Curry and Thompson shooting a combined 10-for-30 in Game Two, why not ride Durant's hot hand, especially since he can get his height enables him to get his shot off against anyone?

Defensively speaking, it makes sense to put your best guard/wing on Curry to make him work and assign a guy to shadow Thompson or make him an automatic switch to not let him get open space. Durant's height and release make him virtually unguardable, so why not concede that if someone is going to go off for 40 points, no matter what you do, it should be Durant and not the other two? Both Curry and Thompson shot over 50% in their Game One win. Durant shot over 50% in both games with the higher mark in Game Two.

On the season, Golden State had 42.8 FG a game with 29.3 APG, scoring 113.5 PPG. In this series, Golden State has 40.5 FG a game with 22.5 APG, scoring 112.0 PPG. Durant's lack of assists isn't hurting their offense against the Rockets. I'm certain there are websites that track "potential assists" as a stat, so I would imagine that Durant's "potential assists" in this series are a lot closer to his in-season numbers, only his teammates have just missed shots.

C's have a big opportunity tonight. Figure they'll get blown this time but probably have the same deal with a chance to closeout in game 6.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 9:39 am C's have a big opportunity tonight. Figure they'll get blown this time but probably have the same deal with a chance to closeout in game 6.

I will always have a bit of a soft spot for the Celtics, because I loved going to their playoff games when I lived in Boston,* but for the sake of drama I really hope both series are 2-2 going into Game 5.

*I’m not surprised the Celtics have a huge home/road split this postseason (9-0 v. 1-5). The Celtics have a great postseason homecourt advantage that affects players and officials alike.

Luckily 41-point losses only equal one loss in the series.

The thing that disappoints me about the Warriors-Rockets series is tightly tied to the reason why I wanted this all season long. Both teams' offensive excellence is having an unintended consequence I hadn't considered.

Both teams are capable of building leads quickly and it creates the almost Sisyphean task for the other team of getting back into the game. When the average NBA team gets a 12-point lead in the second quarter, for example, it doesn't feel like the game is over. There's an unstated expectation that the team with the lead got there by playing beyond their normal offensive capabilities and there will inevitably be a run by the trailing team (when they play beyond their offensive norm) to even things out.

When one team gets a 10- or 12-point lead, the mentality seems to not just be "okay, we just need a run and we'll be back in this", but "okay, we need to play out of our minds to not only make a run, but to keep pace when their offense kicks back in". For example, the Warriors are up 11 and the Rockets get a corner three, a lay-up, and a three-point-play to cut the lead to three to get right back in it. And then, the Warriors respond with a three, a pair of foul shots, and another three while Houston has a turnover and a missed three. Two minutes after they were down 11, they got back within three and are down 11 again.

It just seems so disheartening to the trailing team because climbing out of the hole is so hard, but it's so easy to slide back into the hole again because the pressure to keep scoring at such a high level is present. It subsequently seems like the mentality switches to "this game is over, no matter what we do... but we can get them back in the next one". Like, my only hope to have that peak game is for the series to go seven (or maybe series goes to Oakland with the Rockets down 3-2), but at the same time, any individual game could end up a blowout, as well.

To me the only question left is whether the Warriors win it in 5 or in 6. They’re not going to lose at Oracle and if they play Game 5 with the same intensity they brought in Game 1, the series will end then. As a neutral fan rooting for the Rockets, Game 1 was discouraging because both teams played well and the Warriors still won by 13 on the road. Of course, the Warriors have a tendency to coast in their road playoff games when they have a series lead so I could see Houston pushing it to a Game 6.

If only there was a team that came back from 17 down to beat the Warriors and 26 against Houston

Perhaps you're forgetting about the Rockets' regular season record?

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:43 am To me the only question left is whether the Warriors win it in 5 or in 6. They’re not going to lose at Oracle and if they play Game 5 with the same intensity they brought in Game 1, the series will end then. As a neutral fan rooting for the Rockets, Game 1 was discouraging because both teams played well and the Warriors still won by 13 on the road. Of course, the Warriors have a tendency to coast in their road playoff games when they have a series lead so I could see Houston pushing it to a Game 6.

The Rockets bench was absolute garbage in game 1 aside from Gordon.

Giff wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:51 am

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:43 am To me the only question left is whether the Warriors win it in 5 or in 6. They’re not going to lose at Oracle and if they play Game 5 with the same intensity they brought in Game 1, the series will end then. As a neutral fan rooting for the Rockets, Game 1 was discouraging because both teams played well and the Warriors still won by 13 on the road. Of course, the Warriors have a tendency to coast in their road playoff games when they have a series lead so I could see Houston pushing it to a Game 6.

The Rockets bench was absolute garbage in game 1 aside from Gordon.

And Harden was fantastic and had what will almost certainly be his best offensive game of the series. Don’t count on getting 40+ points on 24 shot attempts from him again in this series.

Also, I wouldn’t ever expect the Rockets’ non-Gordon bench guys to play well against a locked in Warriors team. LRMM is very limited offensively and there’s a reason why Green has bounced around the league so much. Perhaps they should play Anderson more but he’s going to be a defensive liability in this series.

I can see why people hate them, but damn...when the Warriors get rolling, they are so fun to watch.

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 9:45 pm I can see why people hate them, but damn...when the Warriors get rolling, they are so fun to watch.

I find it a lot more fun to watch playoff series where I don’t know the outcome in advance. These playoffs, like last year’s, would’ve been a hell of a lot more intriguing to me if Durant had signed with any other team. Having at least three legit title contenders back in the 2016 playoffs (Cavs, Warriors, Thunder) was cool.

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:43 am To me the only question left is whether the Warriors win it in 5 or in 6. They’re not going to lose at Oracle and if they play Game 5 with the same intensity they brought in Game 1, the series will end then. As a neutral fan rooting for the Rockets, Game 1 was discouraging because both teams played well and the Warriors still won by 13 on the road. Of course, the Warriors have a tendency to coast in their road playoff games when they have a series lead so I could see Houston pushing it to a Game 6.

LOL. Good night everyone!

Giff wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 10:30 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:43 am To me the only question left is whether the Warriors win it in 5 or in 6. They’re not going to lose at Oracle and if they play Game 5 with the same intensity they brought in Game 1, the series will end then. As a neutral fan rooting for the Rockets, Game 1 was discouraging because both teams played well and the Warriors still won by 13 on the road. Of course, the Warriors have a tendency to coast in their road playoff games when they have a series lead so I could see Houston pushing it to a Game 6.

LOL. Good night everyone!

hes been very hard on Golden State from game 1...I truly believe he thought nobody was winning a Game at Oracle this year. He probably neverthought for a second it was a possibility. Im a little salty nobody on any show has talked about the refs blatantly trying to Give Golden State a free chance at a tie by going back and adding an undeserved .5 seconds on the clock. Watch the replay and the foul occured at .1, .2 ifyou want to be REALLY generous. thry gave them point five which gave them a legit chance at getting a shot off. Fuck that bullshit

TT2.0 wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 1:11 am

Giff wrote: ↑Tue May 22, 2018 10:30 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Mon May 21, 2018 11:43 am To me the only question left is whether the Warriors win it in 5 or in 6. They’re not going to lose at Oracle and if they play Game 5 with the same intensity they brought in Game 1, the series will end then. As a neutral fan rooting for the Rockets, Game 1 was discouraging because both teams played well and the Warriors still won by 13 on the road. Of course, the Warriors have a tendency to coast in their road playoff games when they have a series lead so I could see Houston pushing it to a Game 6.

LOL. Good night everyone!

hes been very hard on Golden State from game 1...I truly believe he thought nobody was winning a Game at Oracle this year. He probably neverthought for a second it was a possibility. Im a little salty nobody on any show has talked about the refs blatantly trying to Give Golden State a free chance at a tie by going back and adding an undeserved .5 seconds on the clock. Watch the replay and the foul occured at .1, .2 ifyou want to be REALLY generous. thry gave them point five which gave them a legit chance at getting a shot off. Fuck that bullshit

Crazy that I was confident that GSW would win at Oracle when they had won 16 straight home playoff games, only one of which was in any doubt late. But Houston played a great defensive fourth quarter and the Warriors didn’t handle the pressure of a close game well. Curry and Durant took some terrible shots late. I still think Golden State wins in 6 games but I’m glad Houston won last night Certainly makes this series more interesting. Game 5 is obviously huge as there’s a lot of data showing that homecourt advantage is even stronger in Game 7s.

ETA: in addition to 0.5 being a dubious clock ruling, the over the back foul call on Paul was such a weak call for the final minute of a playoff game. Draymond only got 1/2 but that could’ve been a big swingz

Also, to prove I’m not a Houston hater: I think it’s wild that people are questioning D’Antoni’s decisions to play heavy doses of slow paced ISO-ball and significantly shorten the rotation when that’s exactly what Cleveland did in the 2016 Finals! Houston’s strategy last game was remarkably similar to what the Cavs pulled off then: put the ball in the hands of your two best offensive players and surround them with your 3 or 4 best wing defenders. There’s no high-probability strategy against GSW but until proven otherwise that seems to be the best one.

I just don't understand what Durant was doing when he passed to Thompson cutting to the corner. Thompson could have had a catch-and-shoot, but was pretty tightly guarded (Ariza chasing, but able to recover with Thompson cutting away from/needing to turn to the basket), and is not a creator.

Garden may asplode if two techs get called on Boston to one in Cleveland.

I sure can not figure out lues rotations tonight.

Jesus. This lineup is shit!

Lebron is playing pretty terribly, relatively speaking.

Counting on winning Games 6 and 7 just because Al Horford is on the other team is an odd strategy, but here we are

A_B wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 9:52 pm Lebron is playing pretty terribly, relatively speaking.

And when it comes to the Cavs, that's all that needs to be said.

When is the last time anyone other than James carried them to a victory?

Um. Never?

Brad Dougherty won some games.

HaulCitgo wrote: ↑Wed May 23, 2018 11:02 pm Brad Dougherty won some games.

Not ones that mattered. But point given.

World B. Free

Scott Wedman. Austin Carr.