2020: The Democratic Presidential Nomination Thread

[mister d]

I'm going to show how simple I am here by admitting I was kinda shocked/disappointed to see Beto join the endorsement parade.

[Nonlinear FC]

I honestly want a real fight between Bernie and Biden. Fuck Bloomberg... From a Vox "winners and losers" article:

It’s hard to overstate just how embarrassingly Bloomberg’s theory of victory flopped. In Virginia, for example, Bloomberg spent $18 million on ads and came in a distant third. Joe Biden spent about $360,000 on ads, 2 percent of Bloomberg’s total, and ended up with a runaway victory.

And Liz needs to bow out, too. She has no path, even if you somehow think there'll be a brokered convention.

I'm curious where her supporters go. If you truly want her policies pushed, you have an obvious choice. But the electability question looms large.

[govmentchedda]

I honestly want a real fight between Bernie and Biden. Fuck Bloomberg... From a Vox "winners and losers" article:

It’s hard to overstate just how embarrassingly Bloomberg’s theory of victory flopped. In Virginia, for example, Bloomberg spent $18 million on ads and came in a distant third. Joe Biden spent about $360,000 on ads, 2 percent of Bloomberg’s total, and ended up with a runaway victory.

And Liz needs to bow out, too. She has no path, even if you somehow think there'll be a brokered convention.

I'm curious where her supporters go. If you truly want her policies pushed, you have an obvious choice. But the electability question looms large.

I presume a lot go to Bernie. That's based on the constituency of 2 that live under my roof.

Really glad I waited to early vote until after Super Tuesday.

[Nonlinear FC]

I'm going to show how simple I am here by admitting I was kinda shocked/disappointed to see Beto join the endorsement parade.

He's literally part of the New Democrat caucus. I'm not trying to be pedantic (failing), but he and Pete hang out with my former colleagues and that's the engine for a lot of their fundraising.

I really like the guy, but he's got ties to the same Washington/NYC purse strings that make him a somewhat compromised politician. He's nowhere near Biden, but a lot of that just comes from longevity. It's REALLY fucking hard to be a career DC politician and not be sucked into the money vortex.

It's why I admire Bernie and Warren, frankly. They've carved out a niche that's extremely difficult to sustain. It helps they are in states that don't require massive dollars to protect their seats.

[degenerasian]

I honestly want a real fight between Bernie and Biden. Fuck Bloomberg... From a Vox "winners and losers" article:

It’s hard to overstate just how embarrassingly Bloomberg’s theory of victory flopped. In Virginia, for example, Bloomberg spent $18 million on ads and came in a distant third. Joe Biden spent about $360,000 on ads, 2 percent of Bloomberg’s total, and ended up with a runaway victory.

And Liz needs to bow out, too. She has no path, even if you somehow think there'll be a brokered convention.

I'm curious where her supporters go. If you truly want her policies pushed, you have an obvious choice. But the electability question looms large.

Not sure Bloombergs theory was bad. Biden was dead 3 weeks ago. His performance was just so bad it revived Biden.

If Bloomberg had started in Iowa, I wonder...

[mister d]

He's literally part of the New Democrat caucus. I'm not trying to be pedantic (failing), but he and Pete hang out with my former colleagues and that's the engine for a lot of their fundraising.

I really like the guy, but he's got ties to the same Washington/NYC purse strings that make him a somewhat compromised politician. He's nowhere near Biden, but a lot of that just comes from longevity. It's REALLY fucking hard to be a career DC politician and not be sucked into the money vortex.

It's why I admire Bernie and Warren, frankly. They've carved out a niche that's extremely difficult to sustain. It helps they are in states that don't require massive dollars to protect their seats.

I know, that's why I labeled myself simple. I don't begrudge fundraising, its necessary, but I kinda thought there was a just little separation between him and the rest.

[A_B]

Bloomie out. To endorse Biden.

[HaulCitgo]

Massachusetts? Maybe you can walk over a republican every third election otherwise big dough, major media market, every Harvarder christened by the powers that be, random IT, consulting, biotech corporate winner gets a shot... Plus still got Dukakis hangover nationally. Not exactly the back door there.

[Nonlinear FC]

Yeah, REALLY poorly worded... It's not that it's not big money, it's that she's been able to fundraise without relying heavily on Wall ST and K Street in the past. It's not that she doesn't take that money, but it's not the bulk of her fundraising.

[Joe K]

Bloomie out. To endorse Biden.

Good riddance and print the t-shirts, Degen. What a colossal waste of money.

[mister d]

I don't quite see it that way.

[Nonlinear FC]

If you want an honest debate within the party, Bloomberg and Warren need to go.

She's up in Boston, taking the day to assess things.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -fzegkKnhw

ETA: She got 2 less delegates than Bloomberg last night?

FFS. What's the point?

[mister d]

In a proper counter-Republican party, she'd be the right side and a strong option.

[Joe K]

If you want an honest debate within the party, Bloomberg and Warren need to go.

She's up in Boston, taking the day to assess things.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -fzegkKnhw

ETA: She got 2 less delegates than Bloomberg last night?

FFS. What's the point?

I told you guys this back in January. Warren was always going to get heavy Party pressure not to endorse Sanders. Even if she drops she’s probably as likely to endorse Biden and call for “unity” than to endorse Sanders. What makes this particularly absurd is how much Biden’s career runs completely contrary to what she has fought for.

[degenerasian]

If you want an honest debate within the party, Bloomberg and Warren need to go.

She's up in Boston, taking the day to assess things.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... -fzegkKnhw

ETA: She got 2 less delegates than Bloomberg last night?

FFS. What's the point?

I told you guys this back in January. Warren was always going to get heavy Party pressure not to endorse Sanders. Even if she drops she’s probably as likely to endorse Biden and call for “unity” than to endorse Sanders. What makes this particularly absurd is how much Biden’s career runs completely contrary to what she has fought for.

She also bet incorrectly. She also thought Biden was dead and attacked Bloomberg in the Vegas hoping to kill off all moderates and she would be the brokered candidate. This was flawed because she was even behind Pete and Amy.

[Giff]

(And, when Sanders' base is told to fall in line, ask yourself what they'd getting in turn.)

Sigh.

[brian]

It's legitimately mysterious to me how Sanders supporters rail against Biden's potential weaknesses against Trump (which are real) without acknowledging that Sanders has different but very real weaknesses in a general election against Trump as well. Maybe the best thing for the country at this point is to just get Trump out of office and we'll worry about upending 250 years of regressive politics down the road a bit.

[mister d]

I don't think any of us believe Sanders is a lock or doesn't have weaknesses. If I thought that I'd be pretty distraught today versus merely seeing an uptick in the cynicism.

[Joe K]

It's legitimately mysterious to me how Sanders supporters rail against Biden's potential weaknesses against Trump (which are real) without acknowledging that Sanders has different but very real weaknesses in a general election against Trump as well. Maybe the best thing for the country at this point is to just get Trump out of office and we'll worry about upending 250 years of regressive politics down the road a bit.

Yes, because no one ever talks about Sanders’ potential weaknesses. We haven’t heard anything about Castro or Socialism or Bernie Bros!

The point is that Sanders’ weaknesses are very much baked into how he’s been treated by the other Dems in the race while Biden is getting a pass on the issues Trump will hammer him with. Despite that asymmetry, their head-to-head numbers against Trump are currently comparable.

[mister d]

I think its also important to note that one of Biden's weaknesses, which Sanders doesn't share, is "his brain has gone bad". That's something I try to avoid in presidential candidates.

[Ryan]

Despite that asymmetry, their head-to-head numbers against Trump are currently comparable.

Non-leading question - how do those poll numbers square with Biden kicking Bernie's ass in pretty much any battleground state from last night?

[Joe K]

I think its also important to note that one of Biden's weaknesses, which Sanders doesn't share, is "his brain has gone bad". That's something I try to avoid in presidential candidates.

The one person who even alluded to that was Julian Castro, who asked Biden during one of the debates if he “forgot” something. Castro was then harshly criticized by the print and cable news media for that comment even though everyone knows what’s happening with Biden.

[mister d]

Despite that asymmetry, their head-to-head numbers against Trump are currently comparable.

Non-leading question - how do those poll numbers square with Biden kicking Bernie's ass in pretty much any battleground state from last night?

I would assume purple states are more susceptible to falling for the unity rally a few nights earlier. They're up for grabs each year for a reason.

[Joe K]

Despite that asymmetry, their head-to-head numbers against Trump are currently comparable.

Non-leading question - how do those poll numbers square with Biden kicking Bernie's ass in pretty much any battleground state from last night?

Biden’s performances in Virginia (definite battleground) and N.C. (possible battleground) were impressive. But Sanders has beaten him soundly in Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada, all of which are must win states in the general election, along with Iowa, which is a possible battleground.

[degenerasian]

Despite that asymmetry, their head-to-head numbers against Trump are currently comparable.

Non-leading question - how do those poll numbers square with Biden kicking Bernie's ass in pretty much any battleground state from last night?

Isn't the better question is Bernie really going to produce the highest turnout of young people in electoral history to beat Trump? Because based of the primary numbers, he's not really doing it. I think there's a major mistake in belief that because Bernie's supporters are fervent in their support of Bernie that they are also a massive amount of people. 1000 people screaming at the top of their lungs is obviously louder than 5000 people whispering, but that obviously doesn't mean there are more of them. Bernie's numbers are not anywhere close to where they need to be to win the primary, let alone the general.

[mister d]

(Also, I think you need to consider the Warren factor.)

[Nonlinear FC]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... ntOOUd3DbE

1) Late deciding voters went HUGE for Biden.
2) Young voters did not turnout for Sanders. It's unclear if this will turnaround in the general.
3) Massive age gap, breaking exactly how you'd think.
4) Latinx vote breaking big for Bernie in TX and CA.
5) Black voters went almost all in on Biden.
6) Biden pulled enough M4A supporters to make a dent in many states.
7) While a final tally in CA is days away, it looks like Bloomberg outperformed Warren on the day.

To that last bullet, here's more on what is (potentially) driving EW to stay in it:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... n-drop-out

[Nonlinear FC]

I also want to say, I don't think it's a binary situation, where Warren supporters would all flow to Bernie. As the article states, that's not clear AT ALL.

In fact, her staying in is probably soaking up a big chunk of Amy and Pete votes that would otherwise go to Biden.

[degenerasian]

I don't see how Warren can be a unity candidate finishing no better than 3rd in any state. Also she won't have enough delegates to be the balance of power. For that to happen, she would need more delegates than there are superdelgates. (unless she moves her delegates in the first round, which she said in debate should not happen)

[Joe K]

I don't see how Warren can be a unity candidate finishing no better than 3rd in any state. Also she won't have enough delegates to be the balance of power. For that to happen, she would need more delegates than there are superdelgates. (unless she moves her delegates in the first round, which she said in debate should not happen)

I agree with you that Warren’s leverage is at an all-time low now if she’s thinking of some type of convention power play.

As to the issue about where Warren’s supporters would go if she drops it really depends on if she made an endorsement while doing so. A much higher percentage of Amy and Pete voters went to Biden than the pre-S.C. polls suggested because they immediately did a campaign event with him after withdrawing.

[Nonlinear FC]

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21164091/s ... imary-2020

[Joe K]

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21164091/s ... imary-2020

The issue I have with analyses like this is that Warren has run the type of campaign they claim Sanders should, with much worse results. And I looked at her list of endorsers linked in that article and the only people from outside of Massachusetts with any type of name recognition are the Castro brothers. Which suggests to me that the party establishment isn’t going to be very supportive of any progressive campaign, regardless of whether it plays nice with others.

[Brontoburglar]

gonna leave this here and walk away

[Nonlinear FC]

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21164091/s ... imary-2020

The issue I have with analyses like this is that Warren has run the type of campaign they claim Sanders should, with much worse results. And I looked at her list of endorsers linked in that article and the only people from outside of Massachusetts with any type of name recognition are the Castro brothers. Which suggests to me that the party establishment isn’t going to be very supportive of any progressive campaign, regardless of whether it plays nice with others.

The point is that you need to find a way to reach out to moderate VOTERS. That the big mistake Sanders (and his supporters) are continuing to make is conflating "the establishment" (which is real) with voters that in some cases just happen to have common candidates, but often have VERY LITTLE in common with those in the establishment.

We've had to have a "hey, I'm actually a real person, please don't call me a piece of shit" conversation more than once in this thread. I get the distrust and anger towards the business as usual DNC and the rest. But there's a real, measurable risk of beating that drum at this point.

[Joe K]

gonna leave this here and walk away

Those points are not at all mutually exclusive.

[Brontoburglar]

exactly -- but it also indirectly raises the point that it's a more valuable and enlightening discussion to talk about how and why Biden and his policies appeal more to black voters than Sanders' do, especially on the heels of last night. but that doesn't happen because ranting about the "establishment" is much easier to do

[govmentchedda]

exactly -- but it also indirectly raises the point that it's a more valuable and enlightening discussion to talk about how and why Biden and his policies appeal more to black voters than Sanders' do, especially on the heels of last night. but that doesn't happen because ranting about the "establishment" is much easier to do

This is what baffles me. From my viewpoint Biden's association with Obama weighed more in his favor than Sanders' policies that would better help out black voters.

[Nonlinear FC]

Meanwhile... "Rigged Rhetoric is Exactly What Russia Wants"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -it-wants/

[Giff]

Or maybe the establishment just wants you to believe russia wants rigged rhetoric?

[Joe K]

exactly -- but it also indirectly raises the point that it's a more valuable and enlightening discussion to talk about how and why Biden and his policies appeal more to black voters than Sanders' do, especially on the heels of last night. but that doesn't happen because ranting about the "establishment" is much easier to do

This is what baffles me. From my viewpoint Biden's association with Obama weighed more in his favor than Sanders' policies that would better help out black voters.

FWIW, black Democrats in the south have long been on the conservative side. Sanders has been much closer to Biden with black voters in NV and CA. And there’s also a pretty large generational split between young and older black voters with respect to Sanders. (The same is obviously true of other races.)