NFL Offseason Thread

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 2:36 pm

Just think of the top corners.

Haden - top 10 pick
Peterson - top 5 pick
Sherman - 5th rounder
Grimes - undrafted
Revis - top 15 pick
Flowers - 2nd round
Lewis - 3rd round
Talib - mid 1st
Tillman - early 2nd
Verner - 4th round
Joseph - mid 1st
Leon Hall - mid 1st

Half of these guys are first rounders. And his methodology is not good - just going by games played.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:03 pm

I didn't read the study, but in defense of Brian's point, only two of these guys were picked in the top 10 of the first round. I think it's widely believed that only very rare defensive backs are worth picking there.

I have no idea why this is. Especially given how much the NFL has become a passing league. DB play is important -- that's why they get paid as GP said. Is the bias against top 10 picks for DBs because it's hard to predict NFL performance as a DB from college performance and measurables? The first idea is odd given that the college game is pretty pass oriented these days as well. Are the pros so much more sophisticated that you can't generalize from top-level college performance?

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:06 pm

Probably should be viewed in the context of "how many cornerbacks have been taken in the top 10 in those years." I'm trying to think of some high profile "busts" and the only one is Adam Jones, who has become serviceable now.

Post by **brian** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:31 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Probably should be viewed in the context of "how many cornerbacks have been taken in the top 10 in those years." I'm trying to think of some high profile "busts" and the only one is Adam Jones, who has become serviceable now.

I'm probably also still scarred by Bryant Westbrook.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:32 pm

Dennard might be around at 10. He's most likely a stud.

Isn't this draft supposed to be knee deep in WR? Why waste ANOTHER 1st on a WR, when you need defensive backfield help so badly.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:43 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Probably should be viewed in the context of "how many cornerbacks have been taken in the top 10 in those years." I'm trying to think of some high profile "busts" and the only one is Adam Jones, who has become serviceable now.

Only because of crime issues. He singlehandedly won like 3 games for the Titans in his second year.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:45 pm

Rush2112 wrote:Dennard might be around at 10. He's most likely a stud.

Isn't this draft supposed to be knee deep in WR? Why waste ANOTHER 1st on a WR, when you need defensive backfield help so badly.

It's not that deep at the top. Their last waste in the first round was like a hundred years ago for them in NFL terms.

Watkins is 1, Evans is 1a, Benjamin is a clear 2, and then there's a pretty wide gap. Might be some guys that come out of that second group to do some damage, but Evans is a clear top option.

You can't worry about drafting a WR because Matt Millen fucked up in 2003.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:53 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
You can't worry about drafting a WR because Matt Millen fucked up in 2003.

True, but didn't they give up some ridiculous amount of 20+ yd completions last year? Just seems that someone in that backfield that might actually be able to cover someone would be nice. The search for a number 2 in Detroit is similar to the search for a QB in Cleveland or the search for Nessie. There seem to be clues that one might exist, but it's probably not going to happen.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:00 pm

Rush2112 wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:
You can't worry about drafting a WR because Matt Millen fucked up in 2003.

True, but didn't they give up some ridiculous amount of 20+ yd completions last year? Just seems that someone in that backfield that might actually be able to cover someone would be nice. The search for a number 2 in Detroit is similar to the search for a QB in Cleveland or the search for Nessie. There seem to be clues that one might exist, but it's probably not going to happen.

Golden Tate is the Loch Ness Monster?

Post by **brian** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:01 pm

Rush2112 wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:
You can't worry about drafting a WR because Matt Millen fucked up in 2003.

True, but didn't they give up some ridiculous amount of 20+ yd completions last year? Just seems that someone in that backfield that might actually be able to cover someone would be nice. The search for a number 2 in Detroit is similar to the search for a QB in Cleveland or the search for Nessie. There seem to be clues that one might exist, but it's probably not going to happen.

They had a lot of injury issues at CB, so that was part of the issue. By the end of the season they were running out guys that were practice squaders, not even second or third stringers.

They have some younger guys (Bentley, Slay) that they've gotten in the top couple rounds of the draft the last two years that they're high on if they can stay healthy. CB isn't nearly as dire as WR at the moment, despite signing Tate (their WR3 is basically Kris Durham at this point depending on if Ryan Broyles is ready in time for the season.).

Also, the Lions haven't used a first round pick on a WR since a guy named Calvin Johnson in 2007. That pick worked out fairly well.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:02 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:Probably should be viewed in the context of "how many cornerbacks have been taken in the top 10 in those years." I'm trying to think of some high profile "busts" and the only one is Adam Jones, who has become serviceable now.

Only because of crime issues. He singlehandedly won like 3 games for the Titans in his second year.

Yup. If he had his head on straight it's no issue. Should have added that qualifier.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:09 pm

DBs in the top 10 last 10 years:

2013
Dee Milliner, CB (9, Jets)

2012
Morris Claiborne, CB (6, Cowboys)
Stephon Gilmore, CB (10, Bills)

2011
Patrick Peterson, CB (5, Cardinals)

2010
Eric Berry, S (5, Chiefs)
Joe Haden, CB (7, Browns)

2007
LaRon Landry, S (7, Redskins)

2006
Michael Huff, S (7, Raiders)
Donte Whitner, S (8, Bills)

2005
Adam Jones, CB (6, Bills)
Antrel Rolle, CB (8, Cardinals)
Carlos Rogers, CB (9, Redskins)

2004
DeAngelo Hall, CB (8, Falcons)
Dunta Robinson, CB (10, Texans)

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:09 pm

Speaking of cornerbacks, the Bears brought back Charles Tillman on a one-year contract.

Post by **brian** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:19 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote:Speaking of cornerbacks, the Bears brought back Charles Tillman on a one-year contract.

I thought he was retiring? Guess not.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:22 pm

Probably resigned him solely to cover Megatron.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 4:23 pm

Rush2112 wrote:Dennard might be around at 10. He's most likely a stud.

Isn't this draft supposed to be knee deep in WR? Why waste ANOTHER 1st on a WR, when you need defensive backfield help so badly.

I'd also bet that Gilbert turns out better than Dennard. Dennard seems like a reach at 10. Gilbert I think would be the choice.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:50 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
Rush2112 wrote:Dennard might be around at 10. He's most likely a stud.

Isn't this draft supposed to be knee deep in WR? Why waste ANOTHER 1st on a WR, when you need defensive backfield help so badly.

I'd also bet that Gilbert turns out better than Dennard. Dennard seems like a reach at 10. Gilbert I think would be the choice.

I've read a couple of places that people think Dennard's success was largely because illegal contact isn't called in college football. I'd be interested to see what other types of highly regarded college corners thrived on that and how they turned out in the pros.

Post by **brian** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:56 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:
Rush2112 wrote:Dennard might be around at 10. He's most likely a stud.

Isn't this draft supposed to be knee deep in WR? Why waste ANOTHER 1st on a WR, when you need defensive backfield help so badly.

I'd also bet that Gilbert turns out better than Dennard. Dennard seems like a reach at 10. Gilbert I think would be the choice.
I've read a couple of places that people think Dennard's success was largely because illegal contact isn't called in college football. I'd be interested to see what other types of highly regarded college corners thrived on that and how they turned out in the pros.

Dennard got away with a LOT of contact in college, it's true. Both what would be illegal contact in the pros and straight up pass interference that didn't get called. I probably saw about 75 percent of his games and he was a PI machine, but the refs will only call that so many times. Michigan State and Seattle's Ds are basically built around daring the officials to call PI damn near every play.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 5:57 pm

Pretty much. Sherman is awesome but his constant contact and then complaining about no-calls all the time himself is insane.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:04 pm

Gunpowder wrote:
I'd also bet that Gilbert turns out better than Dennard. Dennard seems like a reach at 10. Gilbert I think would be the choice.

Most people seem split. Just thinking Michigan State / Detroit / need for a CB. Makes sense.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:21 pm

Browner announced on Twitter he's signed with the Pats.

Hakeem Nicks to the Colts.

Michael Oher to the Titans.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 6:25 pm

Browner could be a good signing depending on the moneys.

I'll bet Oher got way overpaid and gets cut by 2016.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 7:13 pm

Gunpowder wrote:Browner could be a good signing depending on the moneys.

3 years/17 million. ESPN didn't say anything of guarantees.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 7:44 pm

If Nicks still has it, a Wayne (even off injury)/Hilton/Nicks/DHB/Fleener receiving corps ain't bad at all.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 8:02 pm

Whoa. That's a lotta coin but I guess if they have the cap space and he could be cut after a year or two, it ain't toooo bad.

The dude is gonna be 30 before the season starts.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 8:58 pm

brian wrote:
DSafetyGuy wrote:Speaking of cornerbacks, the Bears brought back Charles Tillman on a one-year contract.
I thought he was retiring? Guess not.

The "smart money" was that he was going to go to Tampa and be re-united with Lovie Smith. CHI wanted him back, but not at the salary he had been pulling (about $8 mill a season). Just looked and saw a source has it about $3.5 mill for the season.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:25 pm

brian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:Probably should be viewed in the context of "how many cornerbacks have been taken in the top 10 in those years." I'm trying to think of some high profile "busts" and the only one is Adam Jones, who has become serviceable now.
I'm probably also still scarred by Bryant Westbrook.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Also, Terry Fair. Shudder.

The problem with trying to be objective about the draft as a Lions fan is that there have been scarifying #1 picks at so many positions. Presumably the management recognizes that the past means nothing as a predictor of future draft picks.

I'm hoping they find someone coming off an ACL tear with a concussion history and a history of some psychological instability. Plus, he plays piano. The FrankenLion draft pick. Dare to be great, Martin Mayhew.

Tom 1860 · Post by **Tom 1860** » Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:31 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:
Gunpowder wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:Probably should be viewed in the context of "how many cornerbacks have been taken in the top 10 in those years." I'm trying to think of some high profile "busts" and the only one is Adam Jones, who has become serviceable now.

Only because of crime issues. He single handedly won like 3 games for the Titans in his second year.
Yup. If he had his head on straight it's no issue. Should have added that qualifier.

You also need to remember just how bad the 2005 draft was... Looking back, Michael Roos the Titans' 2nd rounder (41st overall), was probably the 4th best player in the entire draft behind Aaron Rodgers (24th), DeMarcus Ware (11th) and Roddy White (27th). I am a big Roos fan and think he has not been given enough credit, but to say he should have been a top 5 pick in any re-draft, says a lot about how bad a year it was.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sat Mar 15, 2014 1:29 pm

Derrick Johnson would go before him. Arguably Heath Miller and probably Mankins as well. Yeah, that was a poor first round.

Johnnie · Post by **Johnnie** » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:02 pm

Edelman re-signs so sayeth ESPN ScoreCenter.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:47 pm

In my experience, the two biggest cognitive biases among sports fans are over-rating the home team and under-rating any coach who has been present for over two years without a play-off win (in some cases a championship). In football, a strong number three is the tendency to over-rate high draft picks. In any draft there are very few players who will be really good -- say, rate among the top 10% of starters at their position twice in their careers. And many players who turn out to be legitimate quality starters take a few years to get there.

Yet fans repeatedly believe the top picks are close to sure things. And that their team will get a lot of help, starting with game 1, from the draft. They also don't seem to grant much power to the forces of chance. For example, injuries. Another under-estimated factor -- development. Many players rise and fall based on the quality of coaching they get, and the quality of their opportunities to play. Further, the quality of the players around them can make or break them. Many QB "busts" are most likely guys with the talent to play in the NFL, but who didn't get the right coaching, right opportunity, and right teammates. Some would have likely succeeded in other environments. That includes legendary "busts" like Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington and Mark Sanchez. Drafted to different teams, I'll bet at least one would have made it.

A GM's ability to draft makes a difference over several years. But no single draft is likely to do so.

Rush2112 · Post by **Rush2112** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:02 am

Broncos sign Emmanuel Sanders. Guess they are going to try to score 100 every game. They are built like a friggin' Madden team.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:21 am

Well, he kinda sucks.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:22 am

DC47 wrote:In my experience, the two biggest cognitive biases among sports fans are over-rating the home team and under-rating any coach who has been present for over two years without a play-off win (in some cases a championship). In football, a strong number three is the tendency to over-rate high draft picks. In any draft there are very few players who will be really good -- say, rate among the top 10% of starters at their position twice in their careers. And many players who turn out to be legitimate quality starters take a few years to get there.

Yet fans repeatedly believe the top picks are close to sure things. And that their team will get a lot of help, starting with game 1, from the draft. They also don't seem to grant much power to the forces of chance. For example, injuries. Another under-estimated factor -- development. Many players rise and fall based on the quality of coaching they get, and the quality of their opportunities to play. Further, the quality of the players around them can make or break them. Many QB "busts" are most likely guys with the talent to play in the NFL, but who didn't get the right coaching, right opportunity, and right teammates. Some would have likely succeeded in other environments. That includes legendary "busts" like Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington and Mark Sanchez. Drafted to different teams, I'll bet at least one would have made it.

A GM's ability to draft makes a difference over several years. But no single draft is likely to do so.

I'll bet a million hypothetical dollars that Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington and Sanchize would have been bad anywhere.

Mayyyybe Harrington. Leaf was a headcase.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:58 pm

I'd take the bet, though I admit with a pool of 3 it's a close call. Make it 10 and it's a sure thing.

Leaf became a head case. But he had his act together enough in college to play great and impress those who scouted him and knew him well. Would he have collapsed in the pros if he was in a better environment? I don't think we can know that. Lots of players with serious personality defects have thrived in the NFL, even as quarterbacks. Joe Namath and Jim McMahon come to mind.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:58 pm

DC47 wrote:I'd take the bet, though I admit with a pool of 3 it's a close call. Make it 10 and it's a sure thing.

Leaf became a head case. But he had his act together enough in college to play great and impress those who scouted him and knew him well. Would he have collapsed in the pros if he was in a better environment? I don't think we can know that. Lots of players with serious personality defects have thrived in the NFL, even as quarterbacks. Joe Namath and Jim McMahon come to mind.

Pretty sure he did nothing but drink in college when he wasn't playing football. He also blew off a meeting with the Colts because he didn't want to play for them, supposedly. He sucked from day one in the NFL and then went crazy when a reporter asked him about it.

He had issues.

Maybe he would have been alright on a team that went 16-0 every year.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:00 pm

And while teams (or fans) may over-value draft picks, NFL drafting seems to be the easiest of all the major sports. A team should not consistently blow first round picks (Raiders). If a team has a top ten pick this year, I don't think there's any excuse for picking a bust. Yet, some team's going to take Bortles in the top 5.

Some years are bad, though, like the one Tom mentioned above. Like 5 guys in that first round have ever made a Pro Bowl. So you probably have a point. But teams have to pick serviceable players...in 2009, the end of the first round sucked (that was the year the Broncos traded a first rounder to pick Alphonso Smith with a second) - you can understand the Steelers missing on Ziggy Hood since nothing was around, but he wasn't even serviceable and that pick killed them.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:06 pm

Gunpowder wrote:And while teams (or fans) may over-value draft picks, NFL drafting seems to be the easiest of all the major sports. A team should not consistently blow first round picks (Raiders). If a team has a top ten pick this year, I don't think there's any excuse for picking a bust. Yet, some team's going to take Bortles in the top 5.

The Raiders haven't drafted well. No doubt. The front office problems are well known. But do you attribute 100% of their draft results to bad drafting (picking the wrong players) rather than bad coaching and a bad environment? I'd probably say the selection end of things is no more than 2/3 of their problem.

Some years are bad, though, like the one Tom mentioned above. Like 5 guys in that first round have ever made a Pro Bowl. So you probably have a point. But teams have to pick serviceable players...in 2009, the end of the first round sucked (that was the year the Broncos traded a first rounder to pick Alphonso Smith with a second) - you can understand the Steelers missing on Ziggy Hood since nothing was around, but he wasn't even serviceable and that pick killed them.

What does "have to pick serviceable players" mean? It's an empirical fact that all teams, even those with the best reps for drafting well, have high picks that don't work out very well. And at the same time, in every draft there are players who don't go very high and then go on to greatness. It seems obvious that it's not all that easy to rate players, and that some of the success and failure is attributable to their context after they report to their teams.

So GMs get killed for using high picks on players with concussion histories who later turn out to washout due to more concussions (e.g., Jahvid Best). Yet other players with similar histories turn out fine. Should GMs avoid concussion histories? So to with players with histories of bad knees, problems with their work ethic, behavior issues, intelligence, and even mental health. Some make it, some don't. There can be no general rule to avoid players like this. So how is it that GMs should have excellent records for successful draft picking (that is, why do you think it's easy?)

This year's draft is widely believed to be a good one. Do you really think that the top ten players will make even a single all-pro team? Will they all have 6-8 highly productive years? I'd take the under on both.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:04 pm

Yes, one of the top 10 players will make an all-pro team. Will they all have 6-8 productive years? No, because some team is going to take Bortles. If you are saying will all of them make an all-pro team, that's insanity.

Serviceable means...uh, serviceable. DHB is not serviceable. Phil Taylor isn't a star but he's serviceable. You don't need to draft again to replace him in a year. Guys like Nick Fairley are serviceable. Even Pettigrew...if you have to replace a first round pick in a draft two years down the road, you've got problems. If he doesn't turn into a star but you don't need to replace him, that's a decent pick.

I said NFL drafting is easier than the other sports. If I change the semantics to say the others are harder, will that suit you?

And Jahvid Best's head was basically broken in half in college. He was a huge red flag going in, and the top of the 2nd round is a bit high to take those guys. Last year Ryan Swope had the same concerns and he didn't even make it through camp.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:08 pm

Though Steeler fans do expect every pick to be awesome. Which is crazy.