Investment advice

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:26 pm

sancarlos wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:09 pm
mister d wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2023 11:45 am Tell her she can give you $17K annually untaxed. $34K if she’s still married.
I get that you said this tongue-in-cheek, but that gift wouldn't affect her taxes, since the gift wouldn't be deductible or affect her income.

Shhhhh!

Baloney · Post by **Baloney** » Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:57 am

wlu_lax6 wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 6:51 pm Great tool to understand the cost of mutual funds and etfs. My favorite features is you can look at how the fund compares to similar funds (morningstar categories, investment objectives, etc) that are priced cheaper.

https://www.finra.org/fundanalyzer

I also find this useful for looking at fund overlaps

https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php

And this for back testing portfolios

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

Apologies if anyone linked these previously.

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Mon Nov 20, 2023 11:45 am

Baloney wrote: Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:57 am
wlu_lax6 wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2023 6:51 pm Great tool to understand the cost of mutual funds and etfs. My favorite features is you can look at how the fund compares to similar funds (morningstar categories, investment objectives, etc) that are priced cheaper.

https://www.finra.org/fundanalyzer

I also find this useful for looking at fund overlaps

https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php

And this for back testing portfolios

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

Apologies if anyone linked these previously.

Morningstar X-ray was my goto for this.

Jerloma · Post by **Jerloma** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:05 am

Anybody have a play here? Straight cash, homey?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:09 am

Pull everything out of the market at the bottom and then put it back in once you're sure its recovered.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:09 am

(And maybe they're doing it somewhere I can't see it, but congressional stock trading details right now should be all over the news.)

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:26 am

Jerloma wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:05 am Anybody have a play here? Straight cash, homey?

I’m playing super safe. Locked in some CDs while they still have good rates, which won’t last much longer. Fed is supposed to cut rates twice this year, but who knows.

I’m convinced they are intentionally destroying the economy so Musk and friends can buy assets on the cheap and be Russian-style oligarchs. Destroying government institutions is part of the plan, because when Social Security and other programs fail, it’s easier to say “government doesn’t work, we need to privatize.”

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:31 am

We put half our IRA in a money market fund that holds govt bonds.

I really wanted to retire in the next year or two. None of this is helpful.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:37 am

mister d wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:09 am Pull everything out of the market at the bottom and then put it back in once you're sure its recovered.

Sound advice! Should be super easy!

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:44 am

Dow currently down 1,500+ this morning. Must be a great sign, the more it hurts the better it is for us, right?

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:50 am

The Sybian wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:44 am Dow currently down 1,500+ this morning. Must be a great sign, the more it hurts the better it is for us, right?

The worse it is, the sooner Trump will declare victory and back off.

P.D.X. · Post by **P.D.X.** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:13 am

I'm not retiring for like 20 yrs, so hodl.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:15 am

Unless my area's housing prices continue to go up while other places hold or go down, I'm not really planning on retiring period.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:04 pm

mister d wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 11:15 am Unless my area's housing prices continue to go up while other places hold or go down, I'm not really planning on retiring period.

I vote for housing prices in your area to go up while everywhere else goes down.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:51 pm

Financialization and obsession with increasing stock prices is IMO the biggest reason things suck now, so I'm not against breaking it. I am against doing it with no apparent plan, though. He's gonna change his mind again in a week, probably.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:58 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:50 am
The Sybian wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:44 am Dow currently down 1,500+ this morning. Must be a great sign, the more it hurts the better it is for us, right?
The worse it is, the sooner Trump will declare victory and back off.

He will never back off...that would be admitting that he was wrong. He will double/triple/quadruple down.

We're fucked.

My investment advice? Hobo bindles are going to be a growth market.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:00 pm

Gunpowder wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:51 pmFinancialization and obsession with increasing stock prices is IMO the biggest reason things suck now, so I'm not against breaking it. I am against doing it with no apparent plan, though. He's gonna change his mind again in a week, probably.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that done right, I'd be mostly in support of getting away from line goes up and a demand for immediate access to the cheapest versions of shit (to say nothing of subcontracting out manufacturing ethics so you can benefit without seeing the harm). I'm a fan of buy american/local, but this only qualifies if you're the most credulous simp imaginable.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:05 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:58 pmHe will never back off...that would be admitting that he was wrong. He will double/triple/quadruple down.

Nah, he caves all the time when people stand up. If enough key business allies push back, he'll undo some or all tariffs, claim they've succeeded in fixing the economy and just move on.

P.D.X. · Post by **P.D.X.** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:18 pm

start fire, put out fire, claim victory

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:27 pm

mister d wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:05 pm
DaveInSeattle wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 12:58 pmHe will never back off...that would be admitting that he was wrong. He will double/triple/quadruple down.
Nah, he caves all the time when people stand up. If enough key business allies push back, he'll undo some or all tariffs, claim they've succeeded in fixing the economy and just move on.

Yeah, that’s the beauty of appealing to a mindless cult. He can declare that his tariffs were wildly successful and remove them, not because he is admitting failure, but because his great negotiating skills allowed America to win.

P.D.X. · Post by **P.D.X.** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 1:30 pm

it'll be a major announcement in the rose garden, and there will be charts!

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 2:03 pm

Like anyone will be able to afford roses.

DaveInSeattle · Post by **DaveInSeattle** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 3:39 pm

A_B wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 2:03 pm Like anyone will be able to afford roses.

Are there even roses in the "Rose" Garden anymore? I thought Melania had them all plowed under last term.

P.D.X. · Post by **P.D.X.** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 3:50 pm

right under sleepy joe’s nose

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:13 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 3:39 pm
A_B wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 2:03 pm Like anyone will be able to afford roses.
Are there even roses in the "Rose" Garden anymore? I thought Melania had them all plowed under last term.

I thought it was Michelle Obama’s garden to promote healthier food habits for kids.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:42 pm

We are fucked for the time being. Nobody wants to be in equities right now, but nobody wants to sell at the bottom, either. So, I'm just holding tight and wringing my hands. I did change my setup so any dividends go to cash, rather than be reinvested. If you have any cash, I'd just keep it in a money market fund. I don't think the Fed will cut rates even once, much less twice, given the current shit show.

GoodKarma · Post by **GoodKarma** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:15 pm

sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:42 pm We are fucked for the time being. Nobody wants to be in equities right now, but nobody wants to sell at the bottom, either. So, I'm just holding tight and wringing my hands. I did change my setup so any dividends go to cash, rather than be reinvested. If you have any cash, I'd just keep it in a money market fund. I don't think the Fed will cut rates even once, much less twice, given the current shit show.

Wouldn't you want your dividends to be reinvested (if you don't need the cash) since they would be buying low?

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:20 pm

GoodKarma wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:15 pm
sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:42 pm We are fucked for the time being. Nobody wants to be in equities right now, but nobody wants to sell at the bottom, either. So, I'm just holding tight and wringing my hands. I did change my setup so any dividends go to cash, rather than be reinvested. If you have any cash, I'd just keep it in a money market fund. I don't think the Fed will cut rates even once, much less twice, given the current shit show.
Wouldn't you want your dividends to be reinvested (if you don't need the cash) since they would be buying low?

Sure, if you could guarantee to me that this is the bottom, ha ha.

L-Jam3 · Post by **L-Jam3** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 6:08 pm

sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:20 pm
GoodKarma wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:15 pm
sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:42 pm We are fucked for the time being. Nobody wants to be in equities right now, but nobody wants to sell at the bottom, either. So, I'm just holding tight and wringing my hands. I did change my setup so any dividends go to cash, rather than be reinvested. If you have any cash, I'd just keep it in a money market fund. I don't think the Fed will cut rates even once, much less twice, given the current shit show.
Wouldn't you want your dividends to be reinvested (if you don't need the cash) since they would be buying low?
Sure, if you could guarantee to me that this is the bottom, ha ha.

If you think the price is going to be higher when you need to cash out, reinvesting dividends would seem to be a better plan. Again, this most depends on where you are in your time frame. Like if you need the cash within the next decade and if you’re ultimately bearish, then sure, just take the cash.

Jerloma · Post by **Jerloma** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 6:19 pm

sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:20 pm
GoodKarma wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 5:15 pm
sancarlos wrote: Thu Apr 03, 2025 4:42 pm We are fucked for the time being. Nobody wants to be in equities right now, but nobody wants to sell at the bottom, either. So, I'm just holding tight and wringing my hands. I did change my setup so any dividends go to cash, rather than be reinvested. If you have any cash, I'd just keep it in a money market fund. I don't think the Fed will cut rates even once, much less twice, given the current shit show.
Wouldn't you want your dividends to be reinvested (if you don't need the cash) since they would be buying low?
Sure, if you could guarantee to me that this is the bottom, ha ha.

I feel almost 100% certain that the bottom is 30,000 at best for the DJIA, and I'm still frozen. Especially after taking a 5% hit today. I do need to fire my financial advisor immediately though. I should have already done that just for him being MAGA, but it's more complicated.

He moved a bunch of money into equity after the inauguration and hasn't touched a penny since. Finally sent out an email last week regarding what he calls "the T word." His sage advice is to turn the TV off. Also predicted a bear market in 23 and a depression in 24. 40% growth in those two years and I got 15 of it.

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Thu Apr 03, 2025 7:08 pm

Jeez, ‘Loma. I hope he used lube.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Fri Apr 04, 2025 10:36 am

I bought a bunch of put options yesterday but damn, should have bought more.

I'm making a bet that this is a relative bottom, at least in the very short term. I'm sure these tariffs will be reversed at 4:01 pm some day so the bigwigs can suck more money out of the markets.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Apr 04, 2025 11:02 am

Gunpowder wrote: Fri Apr 04, 2025 10:36 amI'm ... a relative bottom, at least in the very short term. I'm sure ...i... will be reversed at 4:01 pm some day so the bigwigs can suck m...e m...e...a...t...

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Apr 06, 2025 10:46 pm

All indications are that this was definitely not the bottom of anything and I’ll be very red tomorrow

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:21 am

Holy shit I thought I was wrong but I was actually right, at least for now

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:26 am

Ok wrong again. This is crazy

Jerloma · Post by **Jerloma** » Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:27 am

Gunpowder wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:21 am Holy shit I thought I was wrong but I was actually right, at least for now

Right about the relative bottom thing or the not relative bottom thing?

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:31 am

Major rebound in the past hour.

The Sybian · Post by **The Sybian** » Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:33 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:31 am Major rebound in the past hour.

I blinked and missed it. Back down 540 at 10:33 Eastern.

Steve of phpBB · Post by **Steve of phpBB** » Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:37 am

The Sybian wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:33 am
Steve of phpBB wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 9:31 am Major rebound in the past hour.
I blinked and missed it. Back down 540 at 10:33 Eastern.

There's some insane shit going on.

I've been watching the S&P on Yahoo, so there's a delay, but it looked like the S&P went up nearly ten percent in about 45 minutes, well into positive territory. Someone announced that Trump was considering a 90-day pause in the tariffs except for China.

Now that's turned out to be bullshit (?) and it's falling again.

Wheeeee!