The Swamp

mister d wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:38 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:29 am

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:26 am Echo the LOLs for Democrats learning from this.

25 year old Madison Cawthorn beat a retired colonel. He's wheelchair bound and a breath of fresh air for outreach to young Republicans everywhere. He will immediately become a shining star in the party.

Now look at Democrats with AOC. Democrats prefer John Kasich over a young, intelligent Latina from the Bronx who doesn't take shit from anyone.

He's very high on my list of congressional members who are gonna fuck up in a very public way at some point.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:15 pm The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:21 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

EdRomero wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:51 pm My hot takes:
1. The Dems wasting so much money on going after Kentucky and Georgia may also be a case of them spending money poorly. Trump spends so much more on Facebook and I wonder if we're seeing that money spent on tv is becoming a waste.
2. Pollsters are getting bashed for messing it up again, but my conspiracy theory brain remembers that wrong polls may indicate voter fraud -- I remember there was a lot of talk about that in Ohio with Kerry's defeat, but there doesn't seem to be much talk about it now. Trump not wanting people to vote by mail may have been also about him wanting the votes to be processed by favorable machines along with knowing libs are big wusses about Covid.
3. Biden should nominate Hillary as Attorney General.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:23 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:21 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Some are saying that AZ is not in the bag.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:21 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:21 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:25 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:23 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:21 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Some are saying that AZ is not in the bag.

I don't know that it's "in the bag" but a 100,000 vote lead with 430,000 votes to be counted, most of which (unless I'm mistaken) mail-in votes in Maricopa shouldn't be that bad a situation. At worst, you'd expect those to break about how the rest of the county broke (50-50 ish)

BSF21 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:27 pm

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:21 pm

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:16 pm Left work and just grabbed a few hours of sleep. Sounds like we may need PA after all? Bummer.

Why? NV, AZ and MI all look good. What are you seeing?

Those three get us there. NV is scary but hopefully its late absentee?

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:20 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:15 pm The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:49 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:20 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:15 pm The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:55 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:49 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:20 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:15 pm The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:56 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:55 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:49 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:20 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:15 pm The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

House Dems passed a $3 TRILLION stimulus package that the Senate blocked. I think the electorate is just too stupid.

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:56 pm

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:55 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:49 pm

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:20 pm

degenerasian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:15 pm The crazy thing is that if Trump loses, he lost because of white men, especially white men under 30. Everything else was up.

White men down
White women up
Jewish up
Blacks up
Latinos up
Asians up

We don't really know this yet. This is based on early, unweighted exit polls, which are notoriously unreliable.

True but it seems the trend that Trump will lose but not for the reasons anyone thought.

Also, Trump loses the whitehouse but republicans
Hold the Senate
Gain in the House
And gain in state legislatures.

I had illusions based on some way overly optimistic presidential polls that the statewide races in Missouri could be close. But they were all easy GOP wins. I really think that the Dems broader struggles (outside of the apparent Presidential win) are because they underestimated the frustration voters feel with the economic impacts of the pandemic. Biden was steadfast about listening to science and wearing masks, which is good, but people are going to get pissed if all they’re hearing is about the need to restrict behaviors without concurrent efforts to account for the enormous economic losses that have continued to occur. The toll on small businesses in particular has been devastating and I don’t think that issue got as much focus from the Dems as it should have.

House Dems passed a $3 TRILLION stimulus package that the Senate blocked. I think the electorate is just too stupid.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:08 pm Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:14 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:08 pm Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

ETA: and they started their fuckery by trying to stop PA's vote. En garde, MotherFuckers.

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:06 pm

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:14 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:08 pm Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

Joe K wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:17 pm

Johnnie wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:06 pm

Yeah, the minimum wage is a really important issue to tons of voters, particularly in a year where low-income workers have been crushed by the COVID Depression. Obviously Biden is more likely than Trump to sign a law increasing the minimum wage but that just wasn’t part of the messaging. It was all about “soul of the nation” platitudes and appealing to the tiny number of disaffected Republicans.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:18 pm

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:14 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:08 pm Trump would need to win the remaining mail in ballots by 58% to win Arizona. These are late arriving ballots and that usually favor R.

Arizona is not decided

How do you figure that?

Sorry. I was to high. It’s 20-25%

brian wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 pm I think Maricopa County is scheduled to dump their data at 7 p.m. tonight. I don't think it will be the final data but it should be determinative of how accurate those estimates might be.