The Swamp

My old soccer teammates horse, Heart of Rome, raced on Friday at Pimlico

The field for the Belmont Stakes with morning line odds:

1. Frac Daddy 30-1
2. Freedom Child 8-1
3. Overanalyze 12-1
4. Giant Finish 30-1
5. Orb 3-1
6. Incognito 20-1
7. Oxbow 5-1
8. Midnight Taboo 30-1
9. Revolutionary 9-2
10. Will Take Charge 20-1
11. Vyjack 20-1
12. Palace Malice 15-1
13. Unlimited Budget 8-1
14. Golden Soul 10-1

wlu_lax6 wrote:My old soccer teammates horse, Heart of Rome, raced on Friday at Pimlico

With Emma Jayne Wilson - Woodbine's own.

After a few minutes of intense research, I am backing Freedom Child (WP) in the Belmont.

And since I have never wagered on a horse with one nut and lost, I am full of confidence...

Freedom Child had an ascended testicle that was bothering him removed, making him a ridgling.

Exactor boxes with Revolutionary and Unlimited Budget.

My choices, in order to likely win the race - not just hit the board:

Golden Soul
Orb
Freedom Child
Will Take Charge
Revolutionary
Unlimited Budget
Giant Finish
Frac Daddy
Oxbow
Incognito
Midnight Taboo
Overanalyze
Vyjack
Palace Malice

And on the undercard here is a Scottie special - Finnegans Wake is the #9 in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes.

I ended up betting Golden Soul across and did an exacta box with him, Orb, Freedom Child & Will Take Charge. Taking it easy today on the wagers...

Bensell wrote:Taking it easy today on the wagers...

Good thing. Somewhere, Ron Artest smiles.

Orb made one hell of a charge that fell short

Well, your 14th most likely did it. Quite an upset.

Bensell wrote:My choices, in order to likely win the race - not just hit the board:

Golden Soul
Orb
Freedom Child
Will Take Charge
Revolutionary
Unlimited Budget
Giant Finish
Frac Daddy
Oxbow
Incognito
Midnight Taboo
Overanalyze
Vyjack
Palace Malice

And on the undercard here is a Scottie special - Finnegans Wake is the #9 in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes.

I think this is the third time my last place prediction has won a Triple Crown race in my history of Swamp Predictions

Bensell wrote:I think this is the third time my last place prediction has won a Triple Crown race in my history of Swamp Predictions

My pick finished 13th. Which of us wins?

2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom makes his final career start in about 45 minutes at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne Stakes. If he wins, or even doesn't, he has to be considered one of the most versatile and greatest horses of all time. The only time he was worse than second was when he fractured a bone in the '11 Belmont Stakes and finished sixth.

And Animal Kingdom ran 11th or so - very disappointing race for a very nice horse.

My Friday Breeders Cup picks:

Marathon - #10 Worldly

Juvenile Turf: #2 Giovanni Boldini

Dirt Mile - #7 Alpha

Juvenile Filly Turf - #14 My Conquestadory

Distaff - #3 Close Hatches

We lost the Derby part of the thread, but Preakness odds and posts are up....so what does our horse expert (Bensall...not Business Horse) think?

I guessed after the Derby that California Chrome would be about 3 to 5 for the Preakness. Right now I'm thinking about going and dropping -250 on the prop bet on if he'll win the Triple Crown or not.

$1 3/all/all trifecta at $72 cost might be worth a bet. Lots of long odds right now.

If California Chrome wins the best case scenario for $1 trifecta payoff is about $150, with the more likely outcome putting it in the $35 to $60 range.

Here's the order I think the horses have a chance to win:

#3 California Chrome
#8 Social Inclusion
#5 Bayern
#4 Ring Weekend
#9 Pablo Del Monte
#10 Ride On Curlin
#1 Dynamic Impact
#2 General a Rod
#6 Ria Antonia
#7 Kid Cruz

I think my top 2 picks are much the best; in fact I'm almost tempted to put Social Inclusion on top. If you want to bet a trifecta I would do 3,8 over 3,8 over all, and then do a 3,8 over all over 3,8. That would cost you $32 for a $1 bet and if Social Inclusion wins you're looking at a much better payoff.

Edited because I meant to say $150 for the top payoff, not $300.

Wagered a 12 pack on Bayern.

Did shitty for preakness, but placed a bet on the last race a tpimlico yesterday and ended up being ahead $15 at the end of the day.

The way the second place horse was closing at the finish makes me wonder if California Chrome will have enough stamina for the longer Belmont distance. I'm guessing "yes".

Also, I saw this on Twitter:

I wonder if California Chrome is faster than California Firefox?

sancarlos wrote:The way the second place horse was closing at the finish makes me wonder if California Chrome will have enough stamina for the longer Belmont distance. I'm guessing "yes".

Also, I saw this on Twitter:

I wonder if California Chrome is faster than California Firefox?

I don't think the jock pushed Chrome very hard the last half mile of that race. I think that horse likes to run. I'm thinking he wins going away. Not secretariat style, but not close.

Note: All predictions guaranteed to be wrong.

California Chrome allowed to wear nasal strip in the Belmont.

If the folks at Breathe Right aren't sponsoring this horse then they're doing it wrong.

Sabo wrote:California Chrome allowed to wear nasal strip in the Belmont.

If the folks at Breathe Right aren't sponsoring this horse then they're doing it wrong.

I don't know why New York had a ban on them anyway.

I don't think the distance will be any problem, but the horses that skipped the Preakness to wait for the Belmont present the biggest threat to the Triple Crown.

Probably some old Bloomberg law. They should buy the horse a Big Gulp too.

Isn't the horse racing business dying for a triple crown? If I was a conspiracy theorist why wouldn't the industry take a dive to ensure we have a triple crown this year. Wouldn't that help with interest in a sport that has had some big problems getting folks to show up at tracks and races on tv?

On the other hand I have also never figured out why teams don't take a dive during conference tournaments if it helps get another team from their conference in the tournament (And conference payouts because of it). I mean if a bubble team goes deep and knocks out a team from another conference that means more $ for everyone when compared to one less team but a higher seed.

wlu_lax6 wrote:Isn't the horse racing business dying for a triple crown? If I was a conspiracy theorist why wouldn't the industry take a dive to ensure we have a triple crown this year. Wouldn't that help with interest in a sport that has had some big problems getting folks to show up at tracks and races on tv?

You have probably 10 or so horses challenging California Chrome in the Belmont, and the vast majority of their owners and trainers will be having their only chance at lasting glory by winning. I mean that even horse racing fans only remember the Triple Crown races and a few Breeders Cup winners just 5 years down the road so no one is going in lying down. In fact that is why the horses that finished 2nd through 6th in the Derby skipped the Preakness to aim at the Belmont.

And even a Triple Crown winner is not going to be some magical boost to the industry. What really needs to happen is have a drug policy that is uniform across the country and a coordination of the major races where there is a national focus on the big tracks once a month. But that shit is never going to happen.

A Belmont-winning horse means more to owners' pocketbooks than the industry as as whole doing better. STUD IT UP.

If only we had an expert in business who is also a horse.

48 hours til we see if there will be a Triple Crown winner or not. I'm leaning towards but am going to wait until tomorrow to make my final prediction. But the entire card is stacked with stakes all day at Belmont; probably will be the best betting day outside of the Breeders Cup all year.

I like chrome, but if there is to be an upset, I like commanding curve. Horse made a strong move at the end of the derby and would have been a threat to beat Chrome at the belmont distance.

That said, i don't think Espinoza rode Chrome hard in the last furlong or so. He positioned the horse great all race long. He looked to even rein him up a bit at the 16 pole with no chance of losing.

I will defnitely have those two horses in my exotics and go across on Commanding Curve with a strong bet as well.

I'm rooting against Chrome because he never responded to a letter I wrote him after the derby telling him what an inspiration he was and asking for an autograph for my kid.

mister d wrote:I'm rooting against Chrome because he never responded to a letter I wrote him after the derby telling him what an inspiration he was and asking for an autograph for my kid.

He needs to come down off his high self.

I love the trainer and owners of California Chrome. Before the Kentucky Derby, writers were asking Sherman about whether his horse's California breeding was a reason for concern. Sherman replied, "It shouldn't affect this horse. I'm pretty sure he doesn't know where he was born."

Race Time: 6:52 p.m. ET Television: Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. on NBC Sports Network, 4:30 p.m. on NBC.

Four hours and 22 minutes of pre-race coverage. Call me crazy, but that seems a tad excessive.

I think ARod is going to F this up for everybody.

I like Christ's Chin for the upset.



But seriously, next to impossible to either bet for or against California Chrome. If I was betting today, I'd probably throw some money away on Tonalist for that classic reason - a HUNCH.

By the way, read this:

https://www.facebook.com/marc.done · Simply put, California Chrome has no competition in this field. All are losers. My only problem is the Mafia not wanting a triple crown, since in Mexico you can get father and mother of the jock hanging from a highway bypass for $200.

sancarlos wrote:Race Time: 6:52 p.m. ET Television: Coverage begins at 2:30 p.m. on NBC Sports Network, 4:30 p.m. on NBC.

Four hours and 22 minutes of pre-race coverage. Call me crazy, but that seems a tad excessive.

There are some great races on the undercard so hopefully NBC doesn't understate those. The best race of the day is going to be the Beldame Stakes where the top 3 finishers from last year's Breeders Cup Distaff (Beholder, Close Hatches and Princess of Slymar) are going to face off again.

I think California Chrome wins it. But for gambling purposes I'm concentrating on the rest of the card. That said here is the Belmont Field in the order I think they have a chance to win

California Chrome
Medal Count
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Tonalist
Commanding Curve
Commissioner
Ride On Curlin
Matuszak
General a Rod
Matterhorn

Go horse!

I think that jockey was taller than Costas.