2021-22 MLB Offseason Thread

[A_B]

This is one where I think the players want it, so it was an easy concession. Now, I think they should expand rosters permanently by 1, but a lot of aging vets or one trick ponies have a better path to cooperstown!

[DSafetyGuy]

The players' association has not agreed to it.

And, did pitchers not named Ohtani really do markedly better at the plate this past season?

[A_B]

The players' association has not agreed to it.

And, did pitchers not named Ohtani really do markedly better at the plate this past season?

They've not agreed, right, but I think this one is a lay up so MLB gets to say "look what we're offering!" Of course it's a media ploy!

[Steve of phpBB]

WTF. DH is an absurdity. I know it's hard to undo but why expand. Particularly after the best performance by a pitcher at the plate in 60 years?

This. FFS, sacrificing key elements of the game, and the chance for lifelong memories, for imperceptible gains in offense.

Over the past ten years, the AL's batting average has been 0.003 better than the NL. That's one extra hit every 300 at-bats.

[EnochRoot]

WTF. DH is an absurdity. I know it's hard to undo but why expand. Particularly after the best performance by a pitcher at the plate in 60 years?

This. FFS, sacrificing key elements of the game, and the chance for lifelong memories, for imperceptible gains in offense.

Over the past ten years, the AL's batting average has been 0.003 better than the NL. That's one extra hit every 300 at-bats.

There’s a lot broken about the game right now (shifts, launch angles, the thought that a batter who can hit a ball 115 MPH means it’s cool if he strikes out 300 times a year), but having pitchers at the plate is stupid. It’s an easy fix that is 40 years past due.

[mister d]

Because this doesn't prevent Ohtani from hitting and because pitchers as a collective hit .108/.147/.137?

[Steve of phpBB]

WTF. DH is an absurdity. I know it's hard to undo but why expand. Particularly after the best performance by a pitcher at the plate in 60 years?

This. FFS, sacrificing key elements of the game, and the chance for lifelong memories, for imperceptible gains in offense.

Over the past ten years, the AL's batting average has been 0.003 better than the NL. That's one extra hit every 300 at-bats.

There’s a lot broken about the game right now (shifts, launch angles, the thought that a batter who can hit a ball 115 MPH means it’s cool if he strikes out 300 times a year), but having pitchers at the plate is stupid. It’s an easy fix that is 40 years past due.

I dunno. Having pitchers in the batting order forces a team to choose between offense and defense more than any other situation and requires use of the whole roster. Sure, pitchers fail most of the time, but so do DHs. And seriously, my longest-lasting baseball memories are about pitchers hitting home runs - though maybe that's simply because the Cubs sucked for most of my life.

[Steve of phpBB]

Because this doesn't prevent Ohtani from hitting and because pitchers as a collective hit .108/.147/.137?

DH - (P +PH) = two hits per team per week.

[mister d]

So NL hitters were better than AL hitters, a margin that was made smaller by pitchers hitting, which proves pitchers hitting is fine?

[A_B]

WTF. DH is an absurdity. I know it's hard to undo but why expand. Particularly after the best performance by a pitcher at the plate in 60 years?

This. FFS, sacrificing key elements of the game, and the chance for lifelong memories, for imperceptible gains in offense.

Over the past ten years, the AL's batting average has been 0.003 better than the NL. That's one extra hit every 300 at-bats.

I think this argument fails because replacing Jon Lester with David Ortiz sure brings a lot more offense than just a hit every 20 ABs (300/15 teams per league). There are 80000 at bats or so in each league. Make an assumption that the pitcher hits 2.5 times a game (could be more or less, but doesn't matter much in the theory) so that's 6000 at bats for pitchers in a season. a .150 line is 900 hits. So if the DH hits .250 (or around league average) that's 600 additional hits. Then you'd need to account for the DH typically hitting much higher in the order and probably getting between 3-5 PAs a game so it increases it even more. There's a tradeoff between the #8 hitter who now is the #9 guy, but even that is going to tilt in the way of the light hitting SS over a pitcher. So you're getting a lot more hits and by percentage a LOOOOOOOT more XBH, which is where offense gets going. If you've got a DH who can hit .275 you're already up to 1000 more hits.

[Steve of phpBB]

So NL hitters were better than AL hitters, a margin that was made smaller by pitchers hitting, which proves pitchers hitting is fine?

No, it just proves that the difference is imperceptible. You can watch a pitcher strike out or you can watch a DH strike out. Sure, the DH is more likely than a pitcher to ground out to short a few times instead of striking out, but overall there is little difference in the output.

As I said, if you just look at the difference between pitchers and pinch-hitters batting, versus DHs batting, it's one hit every 14 times through the order, or about three games.

And if you look at the AL-NL difference overall - not just for any particular season, but long-term - the actual difference is far less. The past ten years it has varied between one hit every 200 at bats and one every 500. I don't know why that difference exists. But that difference is about the same every year. You have to go back to 1996 to find a year where the AL batting average was even .010 higher than the NL. I guess managers in the AL are more likely to accept less offensive output from other parts of the order because pitchers aren't batting?

[A_B]

So NL hitters were better than AL hitters, a margin that was made smaller by pitchers hitting, which proves pitchers hitting is fine?

No, it just proves that the difference is imperceptible. You can watch a pitcher strike out or you can watch a DH strike out. Sure, the DH is more likely than a pitcher to ground out to short a few times instead of striking out, but overall there is little difference in the output.

As I said, if you just look at the difference between pitchers and pinch-hitters batting, versus DHs batting, it's one hit every 14 times through the order, or about three games.

And if you look at the AL-NL difference overall - not just for any particular season, but long-term - the actual difference is far less. The past ten years it has varied between one hit every 200 at bats and one every 500. I don't know why that difference exists. But that difference is about the same every year. You have to go back to 1996 to find a year where the AL batting average was even .010 higher than the NL. I guess managers in the AL are more likely to accept less offensive output from other parts of the order because pitchers aren't batting?

Again, the real number has to be the DHs value in more PAs plus the #8's value in the 9 spot, but he too will get more ABs than a pitcher will. I just think when you look at the overall sample size, yes, it seems minimal, but you aren't just going to plug Edgar Martinez in the 9 hole and take him out in the 5th inning every game.

[Steve of phpBB]

WTF. DH is an absurdity. I know it's hard to undo but why expand. Particularly after the best performance by a pitcher at the plate in 60 years?

This. FFS, sacrificing key elements of the game, and the chance for lifelong memories, for imperceptible gains in offense.

Over the past ten years, the AL's batting average has been 0.003 better than the NL. That's one extra hit every 300 at-bats.

I think this argument fails because replacing Jon Lester with David Ortiz sure brings a lot more offense than just a hit every 20 ABs (300/15 teams per league). There are 80000 at bats or so in each league. Make an assumption that the pitcher hits 2.5 times a game (could be more or less, but doesn't matter much in the theory) so that's 6000 at bats for pitchers in a season. a .150 line is 900 hits. So if the DH hits .250 (or around league average) that's 600 additional hits. Then you'd need to account for the DH typically hitting much higher in the order and probably getting between 3-5 PAs a game so it increases it even more. There's a tradeoff between the #8 hitter who now is the #9 guy, but even that is going to tilt in the way of the light hitting SS over a pitcher. So you're getting a lot more hits and by percentage a LOOOOOOOT more XBH, which is where offense gets going. If you've got a DH who can hit .275 you're already up to 1000 more hits.

Most DHs aren't Hall-of-Fame caliber hitters. They batted .239 last year.

I haven't done the math for extra-base hits overall, but in 2019 DHs produced one extra homer every nine games (27 hours) compared to pitchers batting twice per game and PHs batting twice per game. (NL pitchers had 4447 PAs last year, just under 2 per game.)

Obviously if you look at an entire season, the difference in numbers will be bigger. But I don't know anyone who sits down and watches 80000 at bats. You sit down and watch a game, if that.

[A_B]

WTF. DH is an absurdity. I know it's hard to undo but why expand. Particularly after the best performance by a pitcher at the plate in 60 years?

This. FFS, sacrificing key elements of the game, and the chance for lifelong memories, for imperceptible gains in offense.

Over the past ten years, the AL's batting average has been 0.003 better than the NL. That's one extra hit every 300 at-bats.

I think this argument fails because replacing Jon Lester with David Ortiz sure brings a lot more offense than just a hit every 20 ABs (300/15 teams per league). There are 80000 at bats or so in each league. Make an assumption that the pitcher hits 2.5 times a game (could be more or less, but doesn't matter much in the theory) so that's 6000 at bats for pitchers in a season. a .150 line is 900 hits. So if the DH hits .250 (or around league average) that's 600 additional hits. Then you'd need to account for the DH typically hitting much higher in the order and probably getting between 3-5 PAs a game so it increases it even more. There's a tradeoff between the #8 hitter who now is the #9 guy, but even that is going to tilt in the way of the light hitting SS over a pitcher. So you're getting a lot more hits and by percentage a LOOOOOOOT more XBH, which is where offense gets going. If you've got a DH who can hit .275 you're already up to 1000 more hits.

Most DHs aren't Hall-of-Fame caliber hitters. They batted .239 last year.

I haven't done the math for extra-base hits overall, but in 2019 DHs produced one extra homer every nine games (27 hours) compared to pitchers batting twice per game and PHs batting twice per game. (NL pitchers had 4447 PAs last year, just under 2 per game.)

Obviously if you look at an entire season, the difference in numbers will be bigger. But I don't know anyone who sits down and watches 80000 at bats. You sit down and watch a game, if that.

.239 vs .108 is an even bigger disparity than I was working with, and again, the position in the lineup changes the entire calculation. Do you want a guy in your offense hitting .108 with let be generous and say 2 home runs or a guy hitting .239 with 30 bombs? Even if you didn't get any extra ABs I'd say that's worth it over the course of a season.

[Reaper]

This is one where I think the players want it, so it was an easy concession. Now, I think they should expand rosters permanently by 1, but a lot of aging vets or one trick ponies have a better path to cooperstown!

I think they should kinda do it like hockey. Have a 28-man roster and each game designate the 25 players you can use. It automatically takes out the last two days' starting pitchers, plus maybe someone who's slightly injured but doesn't need to go on the IL. I know you'd have to tweak it for Rule 5 guys, like they can't be inactive for more than 40 games (a quarter of the season), but it should be easy. And that's two extra guys that are getting a major league paycheck and will prevent shuttling of relief arms.

[mister d]

You can blur anything if you look at every single plate appearance as being affected (versus just the pitcher PAs). Having a rule that a relief pitcher has to bat for national league catchers after the 3rd inning isn't going to move the needle of 200,000 league PAs either. If a pitcher hits .108 and a DH hits .239, that's one hit every ~7 at bats. That's a lot.

[Steve of phpBB]

If a pitcher hits .108 and a DH hits .239, that's one hit every ~7 at bats. That's a lot.

Yes - it's one hit every 14 times through the order, which takes about three full games, or nine hours of watching.

Pitchers only bat twice per game. Then teams have to rely on their bench for the other at-bats. Unless I'm reading this wrong, AL teams in 2021 used pinch hitters in less than half of their games. (PHs appeared in 1030 games for AL teams, out of a total of 2430 games.)

AL pinch-hitters had 1441 PAs in 2021. NL used pinch hitters three times as often (4303).

[A_B]

If a pitcher hits .108 and a DH hits .239, that's one hit every ~7 at bats. That's a lot.

Yes - it's one hit every 14 times through the order, which takes about three full games, or nine hours of watching.

Pitchers only bat twice per game. Then teams have to rely on their bench for the other at-bats. Unless I'm reading this wrong, AL teams in 2021 used pinch hitters in less than half of their games. (PHs appeared in 1030 games for AL teams, out of a total of 2430 games.)

AL pinch-hitters had 1441 PAs in 2021. NL used pinch hitters three times as often (4303).

I didn't check this deeply, but if you're right, thats 54 extra hits, but you have to assume the exact same amount of at bats for the DH and his pitcher/PH combo he is replacing. But the #4 spot hits 100 more times a season than the #9 spot, so you essentially, if you assume everything else equal, that DH "replacement" hits .540 in those extra at bats. Even if that was their last 100 ABs per season (I am using ABs and PAs interchangeably, I suppose) that's a pretty hot month to have in your lineup.

Then you have to account for the difference in the QUALITY of hits. A DH is going to get a lot more XBH than that Pitcher/PH combo, most likely. I don't have access to the deep dive stuff, but averages alone don't tell the story at all. Would you rather have a guy hit .250 with 100 singles and 25 XBH or a guy hit .250 with 75 singles and 50 XBH? Then give him an extra 100 ABs and now you got 87 singles and 63 XBH just because he isn't hitting in the 9 hole, where again, you are also going to get better production than from a pitcher now.

Then you have to consider it's more likely for a DH to have guys on base to drive in, etc. There are 100 ways to look at it, and all the right ways point to the conclusion that DHs hitting is better than pitchers/pinch hitters in the same number of at bats.

[Ryan]

THEY CANNOT HIT. THEY DO NOT WANT TO HIT. THEY BARELY TRY TO HIT. THEY GET HURT HITTING. THEY GET HURT RUNNING. THEY DO NOT CARE. IT'S BEEN HALF GONE FOR 50 FREAKING YEARS. IF YOU LIKE THIS YOU ARE WRONG AND BAD.

[Steve of phpBB]

If a pitcher hits .108 and a DH hits .239, that's one hit every ~7 at bats. That's a lot.

Yes - it's one hit every 14 times through the order, which takes about three full games, or nine hours of watching.

Pitchers only bat twice per game. Then teams have to rely on their bench for the other at-bats. Unless I'm reading this wrong, AL teams in 2021 used pinch hitters in less than half of their games. (PHs appeared in 1030 games for AL teams, out of a total of 2430 games.)

AL pinch-hitters had 1441 PAs in 2021. NL used pinch hitters three times as often (4303).

I didn't check this deeply, but if you're right, thats 54 extra hits, but you have to assume the exact same amount of at bats for the DH and his pitcher/PH combo he is replacing. But the #4 spot hits 100 more times a season than the #9 spot, so you essentially, if you assume everything else equal, that DH "replacement" hits .540 in those extra at bats. Even if that was their last 100 ABs per season (I am using ABs and PAs interchangeably, I suppose) that's a pretty hot month to have in your lineup.

Then you have to account for the difference in the QUALITY of hits. A DH is going to get a lot more XBH than that Pitcher/PH combo, most likely. I don't have access to the deep dive stuff, but averages alone don't tell the story at all. Would you rather have a guy hit .250 with 100 singles and 25 XBH or a guy hit .250 with 75 singles and 50 XBH? Then give him an extra 100 ABs and now you got 87 singles and 63 XBH.

That's a good point. There would be a few extra PAs on the DH side of the equation, so there would be a little extra benefit to DH vs P+PH. I should see if I can adjust for batting order position.

I should also dig into the XBH figures at some point. But back when I did this a couple years ago, using 2019 stats, I found that the difference in home runs between DHs and P+PHs was about one more homer every nine games (though that does ignore differences in batting order positions).

Also, if we compare AL vs NL overall instead of DH vs P+PH, AL teams have averaged about one extra XBH per nine-ish games since 2010. AL teams have averaged 3.01 XBHs per game, while NL teams averaged 2.90.

For whatever reason, there is no appreciable difference between AL and NL teams when it comes to non-homer extra base hits. From 2010 through 2021 (excluding 2020), AL teams averaged 1.72 doubles per game and 0.16 triples. NL teams have averaged 1.68 doubles and 0.19 triples.

(The NL consistently has a slightly higher number of triples per game than the AL. I guess the DH allows AL teams to put better defenders/weaker hitters in right field, so there are more triples in the NL?)

Either way, however, the argument that "pitchers shouldn't bat because they only hit .108" is very misleading, because it fails to account for the fact that DHs are retired two-thirds of the time anyway and pitchers only bat twice per game. And also because it fails to recognize that for whatever reason, teams with DHs tend to deploy weaker hitters overall in the other 8 batting order positions, so that the overall difference between AL offense and NL offense is imperceptible. And in exchange for this imperceptible improvement in offense, you lose the requirement for teams to have deeper benches and give up the chance for those special memories.

To me, the strongest argument in favor of the DH is that pitchers run the risk of getting injured while batting or running the bases. That argument cannot be refuted by stats.

[A_B]

Found this, and while I can't for sure tell when it started or ended, we can get an apples to apples (ish)

In the history of this data set, pitchers have had 3x as many plate appearances as a DH (so it goes back to pre DH times at least)

Pitchers: 162k hits, 31,109 XBH, 237,598 strikeouts, 4,119 HR

Adjusting the DH to have the same number of ABs it is:

DH: 246k hits, 86k xnh, 86k strikeouts, 37k home runs.


So if every time a pitcher batted throughout history was actually a DH and the DH got no additional AB bonus, you have 150,000 less strikeouts (notoriously bad for offense) and 33,000 extra home runs (notoriously good for offense). 55k more XBH. ALso good for offense. And dave Kingman is in the Hall of fame.

Ok maybe not that last part.

Also, I posted this while you were, so it shows the XBH differences as well.

[mister d]

I'll admit I didn't consider the "special memories" factor.

[A_B]

Either way, however, the argument that "pitchers shouldn't bat because they only hit .108" is very misleading, because it fails to account for the fact that DHs are retired two-thirds of the time anyway and pitchers only bat twice per game. And also because it fails to recognize that for whatever reason, teams with DHs tend to deploy weaker hitters overall in the other 8 batting order positions, so that the overall difference between AL offense and NL offense is imperceptible. And in exchange for this imperceptible improvement in offense, you lose the requirement for teams to have deeper benches and give up the chance for those special memories.

To me, the strongest argument in favor of the DH is that pitchers run the risk of getting injured while batting or running the bases. That argument cannot be refuted by stats.

This is true for all but 31 players in the history of baseball!

And the .108 is NOT misleading, and in fact helps the argument for the DH when you account for them only batting 2 times a game. DHs won't just hit twice a game and then have to leave in the 5th inning. So you get the bonus of a better hitter in more plate appearances and you replace the hitters .108 production with a guy who will also provide better hitting. Adding the DH is essentially a double bonus for offense.

[mister d]

In the fucking 80s, approaching 40 years ago, Gooden hit from his off side just to protect his arm. No one has wanted this forever.

[A_B]

I'll admit I didn't consider the "special memories" factor.

Me neither, clearly. What's that function in excel? =if(specialmemory="yes",WAR+10,WAR-10)?

[mister d]

If you set one special memory equivalent to 23.7 hits, you'll see that its actually a pretty serious net positive!

[Steve of phpBB]

I'll admit I didn't consider the "special memories" factor.

This actually explains a lot.

AB, yes, if you watch a million DH plate appearances, you will see forty thousand more homers than if you sat and watched a million P plate appearances. But that isn't how the game is watched.

I'm not sure I see how the DH gives a double offensive bonus compared to pitchers. In a DH game, you will see that DH bat 4 times. In a non-DH game, you will see that P bat twice, and two different PHs bat. DHs are obviously way better than Ps, DHs are only a little better than PHs. That's what leads to the stats I've been quoting.

[A_B]

I'll admit I didn't consider the "special memories" factor.

This actually explains a lot.

AB, yes, if you watch a million DH plate appearances, you will see forty thousand more homers than if you sat and watched a million P plate appearances. But that isn't how the game is watched.

I'm not sure I see how the DH gives a double offensive bonus compared to pitchers. In a DH game, you will see that DH bat 4 times. In a non-DH game, you will see that P bat twice, and two different PHs bat. DHs are obviously way better than Ps, DHs are only a little better than PHs. That's what leads to the stats I've been quoting.

You are right, it isn't double counting since the #8 hitter would still have been hitting. You just change the number of ABs but that's negligible over a full season. My bad on that part, got myself all sideways.

[Ryan]

“Yay the pitcher is up!” said everyone four times a night while watching exactly one baseball game

[A_B]

“Yay the pitcher is up!” said everyone four times a night while watching exactly one baseball game

*Twice

[Steve of phpBB]

“Yay the pitcher is up!” said everyone four times a night while watching exactly one baseball game

Sure, but how many times have you said "Yay, the designated hitter is up"?

[mister d]

He's a fucking Red Sox fan. They've been saying that for like 15 years straight?

[A_B]

“Yay the pitcher is up!” said everyone four times a night while watching exactly one baseball game

Sure, but how many times have you said "Yay, the designated hitter is up"?

You're asking one of the 2-3 worst* people in the swamp to answer this question.

* - Worst in a spoiled sense, not in a truly bad human being sense, but there's probably some overlap. Cough BSF cough cough.

[Steve of phpBB]

You're asking one of the 2-3 worst* people in the swamp to answer this question.

* - Worst in a spoiled sense, not in a truly bad human being sense, but there's probably some overlap. Cough BSF cough cough.

Shit, you're right.

I withdraw the question!

[Ryan]

Loved Reggie Jefferson

[DSafetyGuy]

Just think of all the by-the-book intentional walks to #8 hitters, sacrifice bunts, failed sacrifice bunts leading to strikeouts, and pinch-hitting by below-average position players (who are still better at hitting than pitchers) that will get missed.

But, yeah, we'll miss out on some AL manager fucking up a double-switch once every three years.

Starting pitchers may even pitch a little longer because they don't automatically get lifted for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the 5th or top of the 6th because someone is on base.

[degenerasian]

So with a universal DH should there even be leagues?
Have 3 divisions of 10?

[A_B]

So with a universal DH should there even be leagues?
Have 3 divisions of 10?

Whaaaaaaaa?

[mister d]

I'm for anything that would better balance the schedules and stop with the ridiculous interleague matchups.

[mister d]

(Pretty wild that if Houston never left the National League, they lose the DH and never win the 2017 World Series. Wow.)