Ukraine

[Gunpowder]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

China is definitely the wild card here if it escalates IMO.

[mister d]

It is impossibly unimportant, relatively speaking, and perhaps there aren't disconnected casual Russians in the same way there are Americans, but they should be out of the World Cup today, right? What's the excuse for not doing so?

[P.D.X.]

100% and every country should boycott if not.

[Baloney]

100% and every country should boycott if not.

Seb Vettle ready to boycott F1 in Sochi, be interesting to see who follows

[Rex]

I will go a step further and say that CONCACAF should get the spot that is vacated.

[sancarlos]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

China is definitely the wild card here if it escalates IMO.

Wouldn’t be surprised if China tries to tie their Ukraine position to other countries’ positions vis-a-vís Taiwan.

[Steve of phpBB]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

China is definitely the wild card here if it escalates IMO.

Wouldn’t be surprised if China tries to tie their Ukraine position to other countries’ positions vis-a-vís Taiwan.

The Taiwan situation scares the crap out of me right now. We have even less ability to stop China from occupying Taiwan than we do to stop Russia from occupying (more of) Ukraine.

[degenerasian]

This is so terrible sitting here, knowing that there is nothing much we can do.

It would be completely insane for the US to get involved militarily, right? Even an air campaign would be really dumb and irresponsible?

Yes.

Double yes. We start WW3.

I agree but its really just waiting on someone else. Maybe you luck up and Putin has limited goals. Either the former soviet countries and neighbors and those with large interests are able to fight hard and long enough to change the math or a coalition backed by the US will have threaten military superiority. Maybe China has interests? Seems like the first group will decline or fail. Anyone know what ambitions for Putin?

China is definitely the wild card here if it escalates IMO.

Wouldn’t be surprised if China tries to tie their Ukraine position to other countries’ positions vis-a-vís Taiwan.

The Taiwan situation scares the crap out of me right now. We have even less ability to stop China from occupying Taiwan than we do to stop Russia from occupying (more of) Ukraine.

QUAD and QUAD+ might have more of a say about an escalating Taiwan situation than what's happening in Europe.
Europe's hands are tied. Germany is completely dependent on Russian natural gas.

[degenerasian]

UK pushing hard to remove Russia from SWIFT, German's calling it drastic. When you watch your neighbor get invaded and you call cutting off banking services to the aggressor drastic? Like they can't even stomach taking a wallet hit.

Western leaders are split on whether Russia should be ejected from the Swift international payments system, a move that would deliver a heavy blow to the country’s banks and its ability to trade beyond its borders.

Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, on Thursday pushed “very hard” to remove Russia, according to officials, but he admitted to MPs that it was “vital that we have unity” on the issue among western allies.

Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, warned his country had reservations about such a dramatic move and so did the EU, according to officials close to sanctions negotiations. A German official declined to comment, saying only that “all options are still on the table”.

Absolutely bought.

[tennbengal]

this is almost certainly not true, but I bet the rush to get a screenplay together for it is underway...

[tennbengal]

But this one apparently is true.

[GoodKarma]

this is almost certainly not true, but I bet the rush to get a screenplay together for it is underway...

…and there is the next Iron Eagle plot.

[Steve of phpBB]

But this one apparently is true.

On the one hand, their bravery and dedication are amazing and admirable.

On the other hand, they died stupidly and for nothing. This isn't like WW II where prisoners on the Eastern Front died in large numbers after being taken captive.

I wish we wouldn't glorify people who stupidly die for nothing even if it's for a cause we agree with.

[A_B]

Standing up against tyranny is good enough for me.

[EnochRoot]

But this one apparently is true.

On the one hand, their bravery and dedication are amazing and admirable.

On the other hand, they died stupidly and for nothing. This isn't like WW II where prisoners on the Eastern Front died in large numbers after being taken captive.

I wish we wouldn't glorify people who stupidly die for nothing even if it's for a cause we agree with.

I agree with one of the Twitter posts' commenters: it's better to die standing up than on your knees.

[Steve of phpBB]

But this one apparently is true.

On the one hand, their bravery and dedication are amazing and admirable.

On the other hand, they died stupidly and for nothing. This isn't like WW II where prisoners on the Eastern Front died in large numbers after being taken captive.

I wish we wouldn't glorify people who stupidly die for nothing even if it's for a cause we agree with.

I agree with one of the Twitter posts' commenters: it's better to die standing up than on your knees.

I dunno. To me that sounds like the toxic macho stuff that motivates right-wing nutjobs all over the place. Or the kind of orders Hitler and Stalin gave.

Dying in the course of doing something to fight tyranny is honorable and admirable. But there was no chance that they were going to prevent Russia from taking that island. So to me this seems like they basically committed suicide.

[EnochRoot]

But this one apparently is true.

On the one hand, their bravery and dedication are amazing and admirable.

On the other hand, they died stupidly and for nothing. This isn't like WW II where prisoners on the Eastern Front died in large numbers after being taken captive.

I wish we wouldn't glorify people who stupidly die for nothing even if it's for a cause we agree with.

I agree with one of the Twitter posts' commenters: it's better to die standing up than on your knees.

I dunno. To me that sounds like the toxic macho stuff that motivates right-wing nutjobs all over the place. Or the kind of orders Hitler and Stalin gave.

Dying in the course of doing something to fight tyranny is honorable and admirable. But there was no chance that they were going to prevent Russia from taking that island. So to me this seems like they basically committed suicide.

They gave up their lives to become martyrs for the cause. To quote the anti-war protestors outside the ‘68 Democrat Convention in Chicago: “The whole world is watching!”

[Steve of phpBB]

They gave up their lives to become martyrs for the cause. To quote the anti-war protestors outside the ‘68 Democrat Convention in Chicago: “The whole world is watching!”

I was thinking about something like that - remembering those monks who immolated themselves to protest the South Vietnamese government's persecution of Buddhists. But I don't think that works here because the whole world was already watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (I think a big part of this for me is that I assume these soldiers had kids and wives.)

[degenerasian]

Vitali is also the mayor of Kyiv

[tennbengal]

[Johnnie]

[Rush2112]

Vitali is also the mayor of Kyiv

My ex-wife is Ukie. They hate the fucking Russians. Some fought on the side of the Nazis because they were fighting the Russians. "Any enemy of Russia is a friend of mine" shit.

[mister d]

I was thinking about something like that - remembering those monks who immolated themselves to protest the South Vietnamese government's persecution of Buddhists. But I don't think that works here because the whole world was already watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (I think a big part of this for me is that I assume these soldiers had kids and wives.)

They could be gay, Steve.

[Reaper]

Vitali is also the mayor of Kyiv

My ex-wife is Ukie. They hate the fucking Russians. Some fought on the side of the Nazis because they were fighting the Russians. "Any enemy of Russia is a friend of mine" shit.

Wladimir is married to Hayden Panettiere. Is he actually in the Ukraine? I feel like this is more than "save the cheerleader, save the world".

[degenerasian]

Was married. He lives in the Ukraine with their daughter.

[Johnnie]

Fuck.

[mister d]

But still, do we really want to risk consumer prices going up a bit by imposing economic sanctions?

[A_B]

So here's what I feel like hasn't gotten more run, and possibly because iI haven't found the right outlet, but if Russia says the buildup on its borders threatens its security so they have to do something. But if successful...then their borders are still in close proximity to UN/NATO forces that they weren't as close to that would then be "threatening" these new borders of Ukraine/Russia?

[L-Jam3]

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are also NATO members that border Russia. Putin can get fucked.



ETA: AB, I get you're using sarcasm, btw.

[A_B]

Fuck.

So Russia can skate by on war crimes about attacking heads of state if they don't recognize the head of state? Cause that seems like a bad loophole. Or is that even codified or am I stupid and have fallen to the mandela effect.

[A_B]

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are also NATO members that border Russia. Putin can get fucked.



ETA: AB, I get you're using sarcasm, btw.

I am not in the least being sarcastic. Foreign policy is one of my worst blind spots. I've tried to read up lately, but I just don't seem to get a full enough picture, which isn't surprising, since some people study this their whole life and still end up incredibly wrong very often. So you're saying this is nearly exclusively about getting Ukraine back and inconsistency in message is irrelevant?

[Steve of phpBB]

So here's what I feel like hasn't gotten more run, and possibly because iI haven't found the right outlet, but if Russia says the buildup on its borders threatens its security so they have to do something. But if successful...then their borders are still in close proximity to UN/NATO forces that they weren't as close to that would then be "threatening" these new borders of Ukraine/Russia?

Hm. I think that depends on whether Russia annexes Ukraine (and Belarus) or leaves them as puppet states. If there is a military buildup in Poland, it would be on Belarus's and Ukraine's border, not Russia's.

Except for the Kaliningrad exclave. But God I hope NATO isn't building up forces along that border.

Do you know if forces are being built up in the border areas of Estonia or Latvia, on either side?

[A_B]

Oh, I don't know shit. And honestly, it bugs me. I don't need to be the smartest person in the room, but I like being able to talk to whomever that person is without being an imbecile.


Maybe I'll check Facebook to see if any of my acquaintances there are experts on this stuff.


(OK, that last part was the sarcasm Ljam was looking for)

[degenerasian]

Some sporting news.

UEFA pulls Champions League final out of St. Petersburg
FIA pulls Grand Prix out of Sochi

IOC not sure what to do about ROC Paraolympians.

[Gunpowder]

Fuck.

So Russia can skate by on war crimes about attacking heads of state if they don't recognize the head of state? Cause that seems like a bad loophole. Or is that even codified or am I stupid and have fallen to the mandela effect.

War crimes are an "after the fact" thing. They aren't gonna go arrest Putin today.

[The Sybian]

I'm having a hard time seeing Putin's end game here. Initially I thought he'd kill Zelensky and install a puppet regime, Ukraine would still exist but be under Putin's direction. From what I am seeing out of Ukrainians, they aren't going to let this happen. It seems like there are massive amounts of weapons being distributed to citizens, and lots of people sticking around to join a resistance. From what I know of the Russian people, they don't want any part of this. It's been 30 years since I was there, but in those days, they were forced into military service and had no stomach for it. They resented serving. I think a big reason the Soviets failed so miserably in Afghanistan is they men didn't want to be in the military, many weren't cut out for it, and they weren't career military guys.

I've heard several reports from journalists interviewing soldiers, and it seems they are surprised they were sent to invade. They weren't expecting it, and I don't know how hard they are going to fight if they face serious pushback. Assuming Zelensky is killed/captured/ousted and a puppet installed, how long will the Russian soldiers continue to occupy? I don't see them successfully holding the Ukranian people in check. I'm thinking Putin thought this was going to be much easier than it will be.

That gets me thinking what Putin will do if his plan isn't going well. This is where I'm terrified by sadistic, sociopathic strongmen. Putin has proved countless times he has no qualms killing his own people, so I don't think he holds any regards to the lives of Ukrainians. If Putin thinks he looks weak, what will he do? I think the world needs to leave him an out where he can proclaim victory in some way to save his fragile ego, otherwise he could resort to some crazy shit. You don't want to make him feel cornered, because I don't trust he won't resort to nuclear weapons or severe cyber attacks on other countries. I'm confident Putin could shut down the US power grid, or hack into nuclear plants and other vital US infrastructure systems. If he feels he has nothing to lose, I don't think anything is beyond him.

I think the pressure of sanctions and going after his oligarch buddies is going to work, but it may push him to seek revenge on Western countries. I'm heartened seeing all the protestors taking to the streets in Russia. That takes some major balls considering how Putin responds to his detractors. I'm sure a lot of Russians are going to prison for protesting. If they keep at it, Putin can't put them all away. If he takes drastic actions against Russian civilians, can they rise up? How far can he push the police and military before they stand up and refuse his orders or turn on him? Fascinating and terrifying to think about.

[Giff]

All I know is I can't wait for The Americans reboot.

[Steve of phpBB]

One logical plan would be for Putin to quickly remove the current government and install a puppet who "requests" Russian "assistance" to "deNazify" the country and then see if the Ukrainian people really have the stomach for a years-long violent insurgency. Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian President who was ousted in the 2014 Maidan revolution, had served as President for three or four years before he was removed. And he had been Prime Minister or President a few times before that. So I don't know if it's 100 percent certain that the Ukrainian people will really be willing or able to maintain the type of resistance necessary to get rid of another pro-Russian who is willing to use repression and Russian military help to get his way.

In other words, something similar to what the USSR and Warsaw Pact did in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. Or what the US has done a bunch of times in Central America, South America, and numerous other places.

If that doesn't work, I think a second logical option would be for Russia to create puppet states in the eastern part of Ukraine where the population tends to be more pro-Russian anyway.

[Steve of phpBB]

All I know is I can't wait for The Americans reboot.

Lol.

[mister d]

By the clock, I just showed more urgency scheduling a meeting than this.