The Swamp

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:14 pm**

Ouhtani???

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2023 4:04 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:14 pmOuhtani???

Looks like it. Lots of sources now, can't see it not happening.

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:26 pm**

Anyone care to translate?

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:36 pm**

Supposedly Toronto I think?

Altho maybe not per other reports?

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:37 pm**

Nightengale saying the private flight wasn't him means the private flight absolutely must have been him.

Posted: **Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:59 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:37 pm Nightengale saying the private flight wasn't him means the private flight absolutely must have been him.

That is extraordinarily likely.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 3:07 pm**

degenerasian wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 4:04 pm
mister d wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:14 pmOuhtani???
Looks like it. Lots of sources now, can't see it not happening.

Dodgers.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 3:15 pm**

10 for $700 according to Passan. I think that’s a relative bargain.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 4:48 pm**

I’d much rather it be Toronto.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 5:27 pm**

If the Tigers are ever good again better he’s in the NL.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 5:35 pm**

L-Jam3 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2023 3:15 pm 10 for $700 according to Passan. I think that’s a relative bargain.

The majority of his contract is deferred. I suppose that means that's $350-$500m deferred until he's well into his retirement. Dude's a money making machine.

Per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Ohtani’s deal includes what one source called “unprecedented deferrals,” including the majority of his salary -- which was Ohtani’s idea. He wanted to mitigate the CBT and cash-flow burdens to let the Dodgers have the flexibility to be competitive.

There are also tax benefits because of the deferrals, the source told Feinsand, but they were “primarily about allowing the team to be successful on the field, because above all else, he wants to win.

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani- ... th-dodgers

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 9:27 pm**

That contract is insane, Jays dodged a bullet.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 9:32 pm**

Yeah, it would suck to have Ohtani when you need that money for all the future George Springers and Jose Berrioses.

Posted: **Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:11 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2023 9:32 pm Yeah, it would suck to have Ohtani when you need that money for all the future George Springers and Jose Berrioses.

Haha. Right? Also I can’t believe he let the Dodgers defer most of the money. I mean it’s not stupid. The total deal is obviously very fair but Canadian money might be the fiat currency of the Western Hemisphere after Trump wins in 2024.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 11:08 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2023 9:32 pm Yeah, it would suck to have Ohtani when you need that money for all the future George Springers and Jose Berrioses.

Deferred or not that's 700 mil for essentially an almost 30 year old DH. Not sure how effective he will be as a pitcher in the future, that side of it will break down. For 500 or 600 yeah maybe. So really it's a 5 year contract.

Also I'm shocked that there are no options so it’s a marriage. It’s a unique situation as it’s pure marketing as to why he got this contract. If he didn’t have such a cult following in Japan, he’d never get this. It probably added $20M per season I estimate. I don’t know if that’s widely understood, but we’ll see if other players want mega deals as a result.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 11:34 am**

If any other player asks for an Ohtani deal, just make sure they're hitting and pitching and have the same massive off-field value. I don't imagine this deal means anything for Snell or Bellinger; its a one-off because Ohtani himself is a one-off.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 1:39 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 11:34 am If any other player asks for an Ohtani deal, just make sure they're hitting and pitching and have the same massive off-field value. I don't imagine this deal means anything for Snell or Bellinger; its a one-off because Ohtani himself is a one-off.

Right.

Again, really it’s about a $350M deal because Ohtani is probably worth at least $35M in a year in additional marketing revenue. That’s not even including ticket sales. Just marketing/advertising/promotions.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:52 pm**

$68MM of $70MM will be deferred w/out interest until 2034-43. Like I get TVM, but I'd also say he's way beyond it mattering and the mindset of "with endorsements now and the contract later, I've set myself up for like $50MM+ per year for the next two decades" makes sense.

(And there's no "he should have taken the $70MM up front; that wasn't going to be offered if this is the structure.)

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:05 pm**

Wait. Just saw two mill a year and rest deferred? That’s dumb.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:24 pm**

I'm surprised that's even allowed, isn't that avoiding luxury tax rules?

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:42 pm**

A_B wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:05 pm Wait. Just saw two mill a year and rest deferred? That’s dumb.

Competitively unfair, frankly.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:47 pm**

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:42 pm
A_B wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:05 pm Wait. Just saw two mill a year and rest deferred? That’s dumb.
Competitively unfair, frankly.

yup, and all the baseball writers love it too, trashing on small-market teams (which they think Toronto is)

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:51 pm**

tennbengal wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:42 pm
A_B wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:05 pm Wait. Just saw two mill a year and rest deferred? That’s dumb.
Competitively unfair, frankly.

MLB and the MLBPA have an agreement on how to calculate deferred payments for luxury tax and other purposes and this deal will probably be calculated at around $53M a year I’ve read.

ETA: Just read another story and apparently it’s $46 million.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:52 pm**

(Whether that’s unfair or not is another discussion but since the union and management agree on it….)

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:02 pm**

Cannot believe an agent agreed to this. I get some deferment. But fuck.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:10 pm**

But like what if his real market value was like $50MM for 10 years so, rather than interest, they just built it into the AAV? Sounds huge, cost certainty, etc.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:13 pm**

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:10 pm But like what if his real market value was like $50MM for 10 years so, rather than interest, they just built it into the AAV? Sounds huge, cost certainty, etc.

You don’t believe this. Come on.

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:20 pm**

It’s objectively dumb as shit to not extort basically three franchises. The dodgers are one of them. But hey I hope Soto re-signs for 2 mil a season!

(I’m projecting this as your angle)

Posted: **Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:33 pm**

No, Soto will be a bad signing at term anything close to that.

Would you be happier if Ohtani got $400MM for 8 years? $550MM for 11?

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:45 am**

i spent a night visiting my daughter in Pittsburgh on Saturday/Sunday and was there when the news came down - a phone was thrown across the room (me: "i'm not paying for that repair you know...") and meanwhile my Dodger-fan wife was/is in Boston on a drunken girls' weekend and didn't know until yesterday when we got a glib family text along the lines of "omg the Dodgers got him!?!?!?!"

ahhh i look forward to the holidays at chez Webster.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 8:09 am**

mister d wrote: ↑Mon Dec 11, 2023 10:33 pm No, Soto will be a bad signing at term anything close to that.

Would you be happier if Ohtani got $400MM for 8 years? $550MM for 11?

I just think it's bad precedent to set when who knows...if TFG wins, he may decide only the yankees are allowed to play baseball and certainly no foreigners allowed. Just see no reason to defer that much into the future. I know he has enough money already to not really matter, but I think it gives an edge to front offices in their negotiations, but not players.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:03 am**

I'm not sure how to engage the thought of TGF winning an election after he gets convicted in court, and how that would matter to Ohtani's ability to cash a paycheck ten years down the line.

Smoke a bowl and understand the GOP have been getting their asses handed to them far more often than not ever since Trump was elected in 2016. Roe v Wade is over, and the GOP have a 2:1 majority in SCOTUS. None of that portends to a massive uptick in GOP voters heading to the polls next November.

Anyway, Ohtani deferring 98% of his salary was likely done so that the Dodgers can go sign Yamamoto. Maybe I'm wrong, but my guess is Ohtani and Yamamoto have been talking about doing this exact thing for a while now.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:23 am**

I mean, yes, that was a hypothetical meant to go pretty far, but I just don't see any scenario where this has no downside. He's losing interest at a bare minimum. WTF. Everyone knows you don't take the annuity! Just no way to know if the business will be running like it is now. I hope so because I like baseball, but I am no longer confident in anything lasting.

Really wasn't trying to make it a political argument because I agree with you that the GOP trips all over itself.

All I'm saying is: money now better than money later. It's probably a play to pay less taxes to CA as well, and I wonder if that might raise some eyebrows among the revenue department. Seems like some fuckery is afoot.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:37 am**

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:23 am I mean, yes, that was a hypothetical meant to go pretty far, but I just don't see any scenario where this has no downside. He's losing interest at a bare minimum. WTF. Everyone knows you don't take the annuity! Just no way to know if the business will be running like it is now. I hope so because I like baseball, but I am no longer confident in anything lasting.

Really wasn't trying to make it a political argument because I agree with you that the GOP trips all over itself.

All I'm saying is: money now better than money later. It's probably a play to pay less taxes to CA as well, and I wonder if that might raise some eyebrows among the revenue department. Seems like some fuckery is afoot.

Fuckery is most definitely afoot. It's tough to say, but Ohtani makes like $50m in endorsements annually, and that will only go up. If Yoshi is in fact collecting offers for LAD to match what he can get, then what says they don't corner the market for the next generation of NPB stars who want to come over? The Dodgers are already one of the more renowned franchises in the world, but this would put them on another level.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 11:34 am**

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:23 amHe's losing interest at a bare minimum. WTF. Everyone knows you don't take the annuity!

He's losing interest if you pretend he could have taken that $70MM per real time rather than deferred. That's not realistic. So if you work backwards and use an annual 5% RoR just for fun, his $68MM deferred lands him in the exact same place 20 years from now that $43.75MM per over 10 years would have. Would anyone have lost their shit over $437.5MM on a 10 year deal where he breaks the total comp and AAV records while still landing on the team he wanted to from the start (and as he's coming off his 2nd TJ)?

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 12:26 pm**

I think you may be missing some opportunity cost on investments (which could also lose money and exist only in theeoretical discussion re: present value) made in the interim but I do get your point. And since apparently Shohei was the one who suggested this, so be it.

It's apparently a semantics argument that Shohei wanted to win, and he has. He has the biggest contract. Here's hoping Guggenheim doesn't go bankrupt.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 1:09 pm**

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 12:26 pmI think you may be missing some opportunity cost on investments (which could also lose money and exist only in theeoretical discussion re: present value) made in the interim but I do get your point.

Sure, but how much of a discount on your annual salary would you take in order to get it lump sum on January 1st and chase those big returns?

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 2:51 pm**

Is baseball even a star-driven league anymore? This is not the NBA. Also baseball is such a regional sport now this does nothing to the national numbers. The Dodgers chances of making the world series with or without Ohtani are very slim due to the randomness of the playoffs. Local tv rights are really about the 162 game content, not the playoffs. So I don't see Ohtani enhancing anything, he doesn't even do press conferences.

In Toronto that may have been different, they are owned by a media company who would have used Ohtani to promote basically anything. Which is probably what Ohtani doesn't want because he's a private guy who again, doesn't do press conferences.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 2:57 pm**

I would offer two anecdotal counterpoints to go along with the presumed massive foreign marketing appeal: (1) He's on my very short list of "if this guy is due up, I'm going to stick with a game I don't care about until he hits" and (2) my 12 year old who knows more Yankees than all other players combined knows who he is.

Posted: **Tue Dec 12, 2023 3:07 pm**

HE IS THE BEST BASEBALL PLAYER EVER THANK YOU DRIVE THRU

The Swamp

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