The Swamp

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:52 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:35 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:21 pm You know what's really distressing to me right now? If Trump, with all his utter buffoonery and incompetence, had done even a C- minus job managing the Pandemic, he would have won re-election with complete ease.

Maybe?

I know the polls haven’t exactly been spot-on, but the Biden-Trump head-to-head has basically been the same for 18 months. So do we really know if the pandemic actually changed minds?

The point is if Trump took the pandemic serious enough and revved up America’s response as strong as it could be, then we’d have, what, 150,000 less dead, and a legit American success story relative to most of the rest of the world.

If he just put on a mask and said it's not a deep state hoax he'd have been reelected. That's it. That's all this moron had to do.

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:35 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:21 pm You know what's really distressing to me right now? If Trump, with all his utter buffoonery and incompetence, had done even a C- minus job managing the Pandemic, he would have won re-election with complete ease.

Maybe?

I know the polls haven’t exactly been spot-on, but the Biden-Trump head-to-head has basically been the same for 18 months. So do we really know if the pandemic actually changed minds?

I don’t think the polling has been the same. It looks like the final popular vote margin will end up pretty close to where most polls had them pre-pandemic, but virtually all non-GOP aligned pollsters showed Biden opening up and maintaining a much bigger lead after March. So if that movement actually occurred and wasn’t just based on pollsters’ changed weighting, then I think it’s a fair inference that Trump wins by a sizable EC margin if the election is held in February 2020.

Gunpowder wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:29 am

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:52 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:35 pm

DaveInSeattle wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:21 pm You know what's really distressing to me right now? If Trump, with all his utter buffoonery and incompetence, had done even a C- minus job managing the Pandemic, he would have won re-election with complete ease.

Maybe?

I know the polls haven’t exactly been spot-on, but the Biden-Trump head-to-head has basically been the same for 18 months. So do we really know if the pandemic actually changed minds?

The point is if Trump took the pandemic serious enough and revved up America’s response as strong as it could be, then we’d have, what, 150,000 less dead, and a legit American success story relative to most of the rest of the world.

If he just put on a mask and said it's not a deep state hoax he'd have been reelected. That's it. That's all this moron had to do.

Hes a narcissist. He has to show strength and beat everything even a virus.

Georgia now saying there are about 60k votes left to count. Biden down by about 20k at the moment. Hoping to finish by noon.

Bad news is Biden winning Georgia brings 269-269 back into play.

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:42 am Bad news is Biden winning Georgia brings 269-269 back into play.

Can we recount ME-02?

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:57 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:42 am Bad news is Biden winning Georgia brings 269-269 back into play.

Can we recount ME-02?

If that happened, doesn’t it go to a House vote?

The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:36 am

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:57 am

A_B wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:42 am Bad news is Biden winning Georgia brings 269-269 back into play.

Can we recount ME-02?

If that happened, doesn’t it go to a House vote?

It does, but not every person votes. Each state gets one vote. And there are more republican-majority delegations than Democratic despite the democratic majority in total seats. (senators would elect the Vice President)

ETA: It would be voted on by the newly elected members of House and Senate as well, not the ones currently sitting.

The emperor has spoken.

Is this for real?

If Trump loses and actually leaves office, my prediction is he either takes over OAN or starts his own "news" network and makes FoxNews his main enemy. He needs a scapegoat and a fight, and Fox calling Arizona early then daring to stand up to him and keep AZ called was the last straw. While it'd be fun to watch and amazing to see FoxNews taken down or at least wounded, giving Trumpism a news platform could be wildly dangerous. It'd be really interesting to see how many Fox watchers stay with Fox and how many believe Trump that Fox is a pro-Biden Lefty fake news operation. The Trump base will be no holds barred fed propaganda and lies at a massively revved up level. Not sure if that matters much, as it's already really bad, but at least Fox has some sort of guardrails of pretending to be a legit news source. Remove that, and it'll be crazy to see what gets believed. While QAnon and 4Chan have people believing crazy shit, a cable news network will seem more credible and probably get a wider audience. No matter who wins, politics get worse over the next 4 years. Dems really needed to win the Senate, and I thought they had better odds at winning the Senate than the WH.

Oh man, I think that would be great. It would really weaken Fox News, maybe permanently, and I don't think TrumpTV would last any longer than his other ventures.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:55 am Is this for real?

While yes, there is a fire in progress, we think it's time to change the oil in the fire truck. We'll resume fire-putting-out activities tomorrow.

The Sybian wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:56 am If Trump loses and actually leaves office, my prediction is he either takes over OAN or starts his own "news" network and makes FoxNews his main enemy. He needs a scapegoat and a fight, and Fox calling Arizona early then daring to stand up to him and keep AZ called was the last straw. While it'd be fun to watch and amazing to see FoxNews taken down or at least wounded, giving Trumpism a news platform could be wildly dangerous. It'd be really interesting to see how many Fox watchers stay with Fox and how many believe Trump that Fox is a pro-Biden Lefty fake news operation. The Trump base will be no holds barred fed propaganda and lies at a massively revved up level. Not sure if that matters much, as it's already really bad, but at least Fox has some sort of guardrails of pretending to be a legit news source. Remove that, and it'll be crazy to see what gets believed. While QAnon and 4Chan have people believing crazy shit, a cable news network will seem more credible and probably get a wider audience. No matter who wins, politics get worse over the next 4 years. Dems really needed to win the Senate, and I thought they had better odds at winning the Senate than the WH.

I thought Trump had no money.

And the bolded is important. To the Dems, the Senate was more important than even the Presidency. So if they had really cheated, they would have won the Senate by a lot.

Doesn't matter. Trump and the GOP just want to give this election an air of illegitimacy, which they done and then some. For the next four years all you'll hear from those idiots is about "Biden stealing the election".

I'm so glad I'm moving.

I've defaulted back to having a really bad feeling about this.

What’s this all about??

Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:01 am Oh man, I think that would be great. It would really weaken Fox News, maybe permanently, and I don't think TrumpTV would last any longer than his other ventures.

As bad as Fox New is, it is a well run channel -- I was finding their coverage better than CNN's (screen crawl, variety of experts, more information). I don't see Trump and his children running a better network and making money off of it. I also think, Fox News may have started it all, but Facebook and other online sources are now the bigger pusher of Trumpism.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:12 am I've defaulted back to having a really bad feeling about this.

Me too. But I never had a great feeling. I won’t be comfortable until Biden is sworn in.

EdRomero wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:17 am

Shirley wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:01 am Oh man, I think that would be great. It would really weaken Fox News, maybe permanently, and I don't think TrumpTV would last any longer than his other ventures.

As bad as Fox New is, it is a well run channel -- I was finding their coverage better than CNN's (screen crawl, variety of experts, more information). I don't see Trump and his children running a better network and making money off of it. I also think, Fox News may have started it all, but Facebook and other online sources are now the bigger pusher of Trumpism.

Their Graphics SUUUUUUUUUCK.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:12 am I've defaulted back to having a really bad feeling about this.

Measure twice, cut once.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:17 am

What’s this all about??

I read something about Republicans bring able to watch the vote counting in PA

ETA

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:12 am I've defaulted back to having a really bad feeling about this.

Nope. I think Biden is poised to win all four states we're looking at.

(As far as I can tell, both Fox and AP are sticking with their calls of AZ. If that changes I'll feel much worse even though I do think Biden will win PA and moot all of that.)

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:14 pm

psunate77 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:17 am

What’s this all about??

I read something about Republicans bring able to watch the vote counting in PA

They can watch them from a closer distance. Unless it's near a school or their ex-girlfriends.

Also, that "big legal win" was immediately shot down by the PA supreme court. So counting has resumed in Philly.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:25 pm Also, that "big legal win" was immediately shot down by the PA supreme court. So counting has resumed in Philly.

Seeing that pop up 20 minutes apart from the Philly Inquirer installation put a smile on my face.

It's only 3 EVs, but it'd be really funny to see Biden win Alaska. Is it still up in the air because they have to physically bring the votes closer, and weather/distance is slowing them down?

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:33 pm

They can have a runoff debate!

👀

People are starting to note on Twitter that because Fox called Arizona they have to call the election if/when Nevada is called.

My popcorn is ready.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2 ... -coverage/

Nate:

A little inside baseball, but this dynamic may affect how different networks are handling Nevada. If you’ve called Arizona (which I don’t think you should have!), then a Nevada call would give Biden the election. But Nevada is probably callable at this point!

👀





ETA

Corrected

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:45 pm People are starting to note on Twitter that because Fox called Arizona they have to call the election if/when Nevada is called.

My popcorn is ready.

Yes, I believe they will be first.

The urban/rural divide is insane

Johnnie wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:49 pm https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2 ... -coverage/

Nate:

A little inside baseball, but this dynamic may affect how different networks are handling Nevada. If you’ve called Arizona (which I don’t think you should have!), then a Nevada call would give Biden the election. But Nevada is probably callable at this point!

Gotta be tricky for these MSM outlets who want everyone to think the race is as close as possible for as long as possible but not be the last ones to call it. Tangled web of their own bullshit.

Liberals have re-armed the neocons

This is about to get ugly.

psunate77 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:27 pm This is about to get ugly.

the 'trump family' also demanded that they stop counting votes. how'd that go?