Re: The Captain Trips Anxiety thread
Posted: Sat May 16, 2020 7:01 pm
It's the sixth version of The Swamp. What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.sportsfrog.net/phpbb/
Soooo... no extended family time for you for awhile?DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 5:54 pmJoe K wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 5:38 pmI've been pretty obsessively following statistics on COVID-19 deaths. Right now the total reported deaths in the US is just shy of 90K. Based on what I've read, the "real number" is likely 10-25% higher. So it's probably actually somewhere between 100-115K deaths. That being said, Steve is right that it's not at all an even distribution nationally. The Eastern Seaboard has gotten absolutely hammered, and it's been pretty bad in Michigan, Illinois and Louisiana. But the rest of the country has comparatively been doing a lot better. Hopefully that doesn't change as a result of premature reopening, but I don't think it's unreasonable to consider having fewer restrictions in areas that aren't as hard hit.DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 3:24 pmI'm also interested in real numbers of COVID-19 deaths.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 1:58 pm Problem with “uptick” is you should see an increase in numbers if more people are getting tested - more tests should find more cases. I am more partial to hospitalizations and ICU percentages filled as the market for problems.
The good news is it sounds like my mom and sister are going to press their luck. My aunt and uncle invited them to their new place in Missouri, so it sounds like they're heading out in a couple weeks.
This sister works in a cancer treatment facility affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic.
I twice wrote out what I hoped was a well thought out post worthy of debating with Steve and twice I somehow managed to refresh the page on my phone and lost it.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 7:01 pm This appears to be a good analysis.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 43215.html
When I spoke to my dad in February, we tentatively planned on him coming up for a visit for Easter. When he called me the week prior to confirm that he was not coming, I had to tell him that, while I remembered the conversation, I had long since filed the idea of him (or anyone) visiting in the trash pile. While we're yet to have anyone ask about visiting since then, we're firmly in the "no" camp, regardless of whom.sancarlos wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 12:10 amSoooo... no extended family time for you for awhile?DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 5:54 pmThe good news is it sounds like my mom and sister are going to press their luck. My aunt and uncle invited them to their new place in Missouri, so it sounds like they're heading out in a couple weeks.
This sister works in a cancer treatment facility affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic.
I don’t think we know enough to be sure about much. And I think we’re probably in for a rough autumn, especially if schools reopen.rass wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 7:41 amI twice wrote out what I hoped was a well thought out post worthy of debating with Steve and twice I somehow managed to refresh the page on my phone and lost it.Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Sat May 16, 2020 7:01 pm This appears to be a good analysis.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 43215.html
So I’ll just make of the author for dropping “notwithstanding” twice in close proximity in that article and ask whether you really think we know enough about the virus to be sure that predictions based on the spread in the US over the past month are likely to be anymore accurate than predictions made 2 months ago based on the spread in hotspots in the rest of the world the month prior to that? I’d say no, so while it’s important to be cognizant of scaremongering I think it still makes sense to be scared.
My point was, as was that article, that people learned to lives with hiv (and fuck)and still go about their lives in the 80s. Abstinence was not the only option. Here, staying sequestered 100% is also not an option, there’s ways to be out in public and minimize risk. The all or nothing on each end of this is weird to me.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:58 am A. Nearly every public health expert says we will lose a significantly increasing amount of lives by reopening, especially in an irresponsible way. Whether that’s more or less true for your particular area or how high your tolerance is for your neighbor’s grandmother or a college kid from Louisiana getting sick does not make it anything close to scaremongering.
B. Can you reconsider your weird abstinence analogy while imagining that anyone with an STD could give it to 100 people at a restaurant because the air conditioning was pointed in a certain direction, and maybe 20 of those people would end up in the hospital or morgue?
Well yeah, but where are we on preparedness and education for COVID now in relation to AIDS in, say, 1993?tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:18 amMy point was, as was that article, that people learned to lives with hiv (and fuck)and still go about their lives in the 80s. Abstinence was not the only option. Here, staying sequestered 100% is also not an option, there’s ways to be out in public and minimize risk. The all or nothing on each end of this is weird to me.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:58 am A. Nearly every public health expert says we will lose a significantly increasing amount of lives by reopening, especially in an irresponsible way. Whether that’s more or less true for your particular area or how high your tolerance is for your neighbor’s grandmother or a college kid from Louisiana getting sick does not make it anything close to scaremongering.
B. Can you reconsider your weird abstinence analogy while imagining that anyone with an STD could give it to 100 people at a restaurant because the air conditioning was pointed in a certain direction, and maybe 20 of those people would end up in the hospital or morgue?
Better than we were in 1985 when hiv was new and terrifying. We’ve got a pretty good roadmap from experts - wear masks - wash your hands a ton- avoid crowds indoors - outdoors activities look pretty ok - socially distance with folks even outdoors but especially indoors.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:35 amWell yeah, but where are we on preparedness and education for COVID now in relation to AIDS in, say, 1993?tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:18 amMy point was, as was that article, that people learned to lives with hiv (and fuck)and still go about their lives in the 80s. Abstinence was not the only option. Here, staying sequestered 100% is also not an option, there’s ways to be out in public and minimize risk. The all or nothing on each end of this is weird to me.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:58 am A. Nearly every public health expert says we will lose a significantly increasing amount of lives by reopening, especially in an irresponsible way. Whether that’s more or less true for your particular area or how high your tolerance is for your neighbor’s grandmother or a college kid from Louisiana getting sick does not make it anything close to scaremongering.
B. Can you reconsider your weird abstinence analogy while imagining that anyone with an STD could give it to 100 people at a restaurant because the air conditioning was pointed in a certain direction, and maybe 20 of those people would end up in the hospital or morgue?
Well...in 1985 a lot of religious fundamentalists and the Christian Right (who were ascendant under Reagan) were busy high-fiving that god was killing the gays and there was very little push to figure this thing out quickly. That eventually changed when people realized it was infecting the straights too, but there was zero effort to get in front of this back then from the US government circa 1985 other than “stop fucking and close the bathhouses you dirty gays”.
It’s absolutely infuriating. Trump and the other world leaders really fucked up.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:48 am It also just really sucks that if you could have literally made everyone in the world stay put for 2 weeks in January or whatever, we'd be all set. Beyond impossible, but that carrot is hard to ignore when I look at whatever compromising steps we can take now. I'm obviously lucky to even think of that option.
But Germany worked to get to this point with aggressive testing. The push to make thing normal makes sense if you're making progress (which I'm hoping is more than hospitals now have the space for you to die in them). It doesn't look like the areas opening are ready.
Some are and some aren’t. That’s really unfortunate and you’re right about testing and contact tracing but we’re more or less on our own with the federal government a shambolic mess. Personal responsibility is more important than ever. My wife would normally go out to dinner once a week or so. That might be once a month (or less) for us even in a “re-opened” Nevada.EdRomero wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:52 amBut Germany worked to get to this point with aggressive testing. The push to make thing normal makes sense if you're making progress (which I'm hoping is more than hospitals now have the space for you to die in them). It doesn't look like the areas opening are ready.
Kids are fine.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:50 amHere? This has had the full attention of every epidemiologist and other health expert since early February for a virus already mostly mapped due to Covids 1-18...
But that frame isn’t right, D. Looking for a safe general opening doesn’t entail sacrificing citizens. And the govt should obviously fucking do something. But it’s clear the federal response is over. So what are we left with? Taking as many precautions as is reasonable while trying to operate normally.
This is all fair. Definitely. I get it. I do.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 11:03 amKids are fine.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:50 amHere? This has had the full attention of every epidemiologist and other health expert since early February for a virus already mostly mapped due to Covids 1-18...
It might be affecting kids.
Just wash your hands.
Also stay 6 feet apart so you don't breathe it in.
Actually, make it 10 maybe?
If we could only know if we were immune.
You might still be able to get it again.
I'm still closer to "we don't know shit" than I'm being told to be.
Not just government but companies too. As we have discussed here, the definition of 'essential service' is very murky. I work for the Securities Commission which is deemed an essential service. It remained open throughout and the execs would have been allowed to force everyone into the office. But they decided that other than mailroom receiving packages, everyone worked from home.
With the above programs in place and without any discretionary spending that wasn’t already discussed, we need to earn more than $160k/month, or an average of about $5,400 per day if we reopen for dine-in business. We believe that we can eventually achieve that kind of revenue, but it will take both time and a well-executed strategy to get there, and for a while we will have significant losses to overcome. For now, while we build that strategy and address the other challenges on this list, it makes far more sense to stick with the takeout and delivery model, where we are not quite breaking even, but are not losing anywhere close to what we might if we try to reopen for dine-in and don’t earn revenue approaching $160k/mo.
Exactly where I am with this. Absolutely no trust in my governor or president, and I'd say it's only about 40% masks that I'm seeing when I have to grocery shop.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 11:03 amKids are fine.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:50 amHere? This has had the full attention of every epidemiologist and other health expert since early February for a virus already mostly mapped due to Covids 1-18...
It might be affecting kids.
Just wash your hands.
Also stay 6 feet apart so you don't breathe it in.
Actually, make it 10 maybe?
If we could only know if we were immune.
You might still be able to get it again.
I'm still closer to "we don't know shit" than I'm being told to be.
Well, we'll get a better idea since they had to fix this "slight" issue with their graph of cases.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:48 amGeorgia has been open for awhile now - I haven’t seen reports that their hospitalizations are surging.
There is that. Gaming the system makes it hard to know. Another unfortunate brick in the wall. Since they went first, data that is actionable would have been nice...DSafetyGuy wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:47 pmWell, we'll get a better idea since they had to fix this "slight" issue with their graph of cases.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:48 amGeorgia has been open for awhile now - I haven’t seen reports that their hospitalizations are surging.
Thanks for this. An exceptional insight into an actual owner’s experience. Hard to see how anyone opens up and doesn’t fail this year if these are the real costs. Wild.degenerasian wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 12:32 pm Great breakdown by one of the local businesses here, Prairie Dog Brewing, on the challenges of re-opening a restaurant in a pandemic, both from a safety and revenue perspective.
https://www.prairiedogbrewing.ca/challe ... -covid-19/
With the above programs in place and without any discretionary spending that wasn’t already discussed, we need to earn more than $160k/month, or an average of about $5,400 per day if we reopen for dine-in business. We believe that we can eventually achieve that kind of revenue, but it will take both time and a well-executed strategy to get there, and for a while we will have significant losses to overcome. For now, while we build that strategy and address the other challenges on this list, it makes far more sense to stick with the takeout and delivery model, where we are not quite breaking even, but are not losing anywhere close to what we might if we try to reopen for dine-in and don’t earn revenue approaching $160k/mo.
Let me just say as someone who was an adult in the mid 80s, HIV was a near immediate death sentence. There were no treatments available for a hell of a long time. While it was pretty much confined to the Gay community and intravenous drug users, I must reiterate that there wasn't a second chance for anyone who got AIDS for a long, long time.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:18 amMy point was, as was that article, that people learned to lives with hiv (and fuck)and still go about their lives in the 80s. Abstinence was not the only option. Here, staying sequestered 100% is also not an option, there’s ways to be out in public and minimize risk. The all or nothing on each end of this is weird to me.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:58 am A. Nearly every public health expert says we will lose a significantly increasing amount of lives by reopening, especially in an irresponsible way. Whether that’s more or less true for your particular area or how high your tolerance is for your neighbor’s grandmother or a college kid from Louisiana getting sick does not make it anything close to scaremongering.
B. Can you reconsider your weird abstinence analogy while imagining that anyone with an STD could give it to 100 people at a restaurant because the air conditioning was pointed in a certain direction, and maybe 20 of those people would end up in the hospital or morgue?
I am also that old and remember it in real time. That is all true, but also, people learned how to safely fuck and adapt their behaviors in those circumstances.Pruitt wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 5:10 pmLet me just say as someone who was an adult in the mid 80s, HIV was a near immediate death sentence. There were no treatments available for a hell of a long time. While it was pretty much confined to the Gay community and intravenous drug users, I must reiterate that there wasn't a second chance for anyone who got AIDS for a long, long time.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:18 amMy point was, as was that article, that people learned to lives with hiv (and fuck)and still go about their lives in the 80s. Abstinence was not the only option. Here, staying sequestered 100% is also not an option, there’s ways to be out in public and minimize risk. The all or nothing on each end of this is weird to me.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 9:58 am A. Nearly every public health expert says we will lose a significantly increasing amount of lives by reopening, especially in an irresponsible way. Whether that’s more or less true for your particular area or how high your tolerance is for your neighbor’s grandmother or a college kid from Louisiana getting sick does not make it anything close to scaremongering.
B. Can you reconsider your weird abstinence analogy while imagining that anyone with an STD could give it to 100 people at a restaurant because the air conditioning was pointed in a certain direction, and maybe 20 of those people would end up in the hospital or morgue?
You simply can not compare the two. There were never "sky is falling" projections of mass deaths outside of the Gay community. But a hell of a lot of people my age know people and had friends (gay and straight) who died pretty quickly from Aids.
I don't see that many masks on the city streets, but thank goodness the little independent grocer we patronize won't let you in their door without a mask.govmentchedda wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 2:36 pmExactly where I am with this. Absolutely no trust in my governor or president, and I'd say it's only about 40% masks that I'm seeing when I have to grocery shop.Ryan wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 11:03 amKids are fine.tennbengal wrote: ↑Sun May 17, 2020 10:50 amHere? This has had the full attention of every epidemiologist and other health expert since early February for a virus already mostly mapped due to Covids 1-18...
It might be affecting kids.
Just wash your hands.
Also stay 6 feet apart so you don't breathe it in.
Actually, make it 10 maybe?
If we could only know if we were immune.
You might still be able to get it again.
I'm still closer to "we don't know shit" than I'm being told to be.
I mean. That's basically just a park. Might have to suck this one up.