The Swamp

Stat lesson #1 - never mention possession percentage as being a relevant stat.

[Burnley has 19% Possession And Wins

Atleast in the EPL last year, there's a strong correlation b/w points and possession numbers. Leicester City was 18th last year but the rest of the top 5 was also top 5 in possession. #thisissortoflikehockeyyay

mister d wrote:Atleast in the EPL last year, there's a strong correlation b/w points and possession numbers. Leicester City was 18th last year but the rest of the top 5 was also top 5 in possession. #thisissortoflikehockeyyay

I guess, but it is tiring to hear analysts present the fact that a team won with less possession as being an anomaly. Granted, 19% possession is beyond the pale, but it's not a very significant stat.

mister d wrote:Atleast in the EPL last year, there's a strong correlation b/w points and possession numbers. Leicester City was 18th last year but the rest of the top 5 was also top 5 in possession. #thisissortoflikehockeyyay

So, there's a likelihood that Leicester regresses to the mean this season?

If its anything like the NHL, sure, they'd be Colorado from a few years back. But I really have no idea.

I feel like Mr. D brought up this discussion a few months back. Leicester City should regress to the mean, but possession in soccer is VERY different from possession in hockey.

ETA - at least as far as looking at possession = positive results/expected wins

Because of game situations or because defend-and-counter is a legitimate strategy in soccer versus hockey? Or both?

mister d wrote:Because of game situations or because defend-and-counter is a legitimate strategy in soccer versus hockey? Or both?

can't defend like soccer in hockey. Defend-counter in hockey would get destroyed. Flames did this last year and was out of the playoff race by valentines.

1. offensive team can change on the fly while defensive team is pinned in their own zone (especially in the 2nd period)
2. Icing
3. Faceoffs
4. Power plays
5. no offside trap

mister d wrote:Because of game situations or because defend-and-counter is a legitimate strategy in soccer versus hockey? Or both?

Defend and counter is a legitimate soccer strategy. Think back to the whole Guy Boucher kerfuffle that reached a boiling point against Philly when the Bolts forwards wouldn't chase the defender with the puck in the offensive zone. Similar strategies happen much more often in soccer.

Leicester did a lot of defend and counter last year, and were able to do so because of the lightning pace of Mahrez and Vardy. It looks like Manchester United will do a lot of that this year as well, although a bit differently, as "lightning pace" does not describe Rooney or Ibrahimovich.

Chelsea has won both games 2-1 this season with late goals. Both came after late subs in of Fabregas (as well as Moses and Batshuayi).

Check out this beautiful pass from Fabregas to Costa for the game winner on Saturday. It's fucking beautiful.



Another angle:

govmentchedda wrote:

mister d wrote:Because of game situations or because defend-and-counter is a legitimate strategy in soccer versus hockey? Or both?

Defend and counter is a legitimate soccer strategy. Think back to the whole Guy Boucher kerfuffle that reached a boiling point against Philly when the Bolts forwards wouldn't chase the defender with the puck in the offensive zone. Similar strategies happen much more often in soccer.

Leicester did a lot of defend and counter last year, and were able to do so because of the lightning pace of Mahrez and Vardy. It looks like Manchester United will do a lot of that this year as well, although a bit differently, as "lightning pace" does not describe Rooney or Ibrahimovich.

But both have ridiculolus first touches, which can help dictate the next move.

Madrid had a smilar goal. that pass and that chip!

Dresden fans don't like Red Bull Leipzigs
http://www.foxsports.com/soccer/story/d ... ium-082116

I'm guessing Barcelona is not the group draw you're looking for, huh?

mister d wrote:I'm guessing Barcelona is not the group draw you're looking for, huh?

Personally, I would take it this year.

Shouldn't really matter as top 2 advance, but no, you want to avoid Barca if possible.

Speaking of Arsenal need to sign a center back, looks like they closed on Shkodran Mustafi today. Also reports they closed on Lucas Perez. If not, Wenger is going to be crucified.

Champions league looms:

Group A: Paris St-Germain, Arsenal, Basel, Ludogorets

Group B: Benfica, Napoli, Dynamo Kyiv, Besiktas

Group C: Barcelona, Manchester City, Borussia Mönchengladbach, Celtic

Group D: Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, PSV Eindhoven, FC Rostov

Group E: CSKA Moscow, Bayer Leverkusen, Tottenham Hotspur, Monaco

Group F: Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Sporting Lisbon, Legia Warsaw

Group G: Leicester, Porto, Club Brugge, FC Copenhagen

Group H: Juventus, Sevilla, Lyon, Dinamo Zagreb


Spurs got the best draw possible.

Pruitt wrote:
Spurs got the best draw possible.

I give that nod to Leicester. So weird to see their name there.

This year's true European competition. Notice who is listed first.

GROUP A
Manchester United
Fenerbahce
Feyenoord
Zorya Luhansk

GROUP B
Olympiakos
APOEL
Young Boys
FK Astana

GROUP C
Anderlecht
St Etienne
Mainz
FK Qabala

GROUP D
Zenit St Petersburg
AZ Alkmaar
Maccabi Tel-Aviv
Dundalk

GROUP E
Viktoria Plzen
AS Roma
Austria Vienna
Astra Giurgiu

GROUP F
Athletic Bilbao
Genk
Rapid Vienna
Sassuolo

GROUP G
Ajax
Standard Liege
Celta Vigo
Panathinaikos

GROUP H
Shakhtar Donetsk
Braga
Gent
Konyaspor

GROUP I
Schalke
Salzburg
Krasnodar
Nice

GROUP J
Fiorentina
PAOK
Slovan Liberec
FK Qarabag

GROUP K
Inter Milan
Sparta Prague
Southampton
Hapoel Beer-Sheva

GROUP L
Villarreal
Steaua Bucharest
FC Zurich
Osmanlispor

How should I feel about Man City getting Bravo instead of ter Stegen? I wanted the latter just because he's younger and I thought it would be cool to start a long tenure at the beginning.

Were they in for Ter Stegen? Also, he's coming off an injury.

Those were the early rumors.

So many rumors flying around. I tend to pay attention only to the ones involving my team.

The Sybian wrote:

Pruitt wrote:
Spurs got the best draw possible.

I give that nod to Leicester. So weird to see their name there.

After seeing their qualifier a few weeks ago against Astra Giurgiu, I'm all in on FC Copenhagen.

Plus, it's fun to see "FCK" on one of their shirts or hats.

So it's a

Total Eclipse of Joe Hart

What the heck was going on at Villa last year that they could have someone like Idrissa Gueye and still be that bad? He's not only really good, he seems like the perfect player to grind out results.

Spurs looked like crap today - the entire midfield and Karry Kane looked hungover.

3 games in and City, ManU and Chelsea with 9 points each. Things apparently put back to right.

tennbengal wrote:3 games in and City, ManU and Chelsea with 9 points each. Things apparently put back to right.

But, do we want to live in a world where that is "right"?

tennbengal wrote:3 games in and City, ManU and Chelsea with 9 points each. Things apparently put back to right.

Well, one out of three ain't bad. It also allows for much more money making opportunities on short term investments with the "big" teams now fully awake and lots of competition amongst them for the top of the table.

It sure looks good to me. Chelsea looked simply dominant against Burnley on Saturday. If not for some incredible goalkeeping (and one crazy clearance off the line by a defender), that game could have been 6-0 or worse.

sancarlos wrote:

tennbengal wrote:3 games in and City, ManU and Chelsea with 9 points each. Things apparently put back to right.

But, do we want to live in a world where that is "right"?

What we want doesn't matter. We'll always have 2015/16.

Also, I am the ugly American who likes shiny things and Ibra/Pogba has me working out ManU chants.

Shirley wrote:It sure looks good to me. Chelsea looked simply dominant against Burnley on Saturday.

This statement shows how bad things truly were last year.

The Sybian wrote:

Shirley wrote:It sure looks good to me. Chelsea looked simply dominant against Burnley on Saturday.

This statement shows how bad things truly were last year.

Yup. Chelsea didn't dominate anyone last year.


Well, other than Arsenal.

Frank McCourt is buying Olympique Marseille. A club and city notorious for being unmanageable.
As someone who enjoys when they lose (in domestic league), this should be a fun ride

That French Guy wrote:Frank McCourt is buying Olympique Marseille. A club and city notorious for being unmanageable.
As someone who enjoys when they lose (in domestic league), this should be a fun ride

It would be entertaining to watch the supporters throw him into the sea.

This is awesome. Now I don't have to see this douchebag on TV this season.

I wonder if that means Mikey Lopez is out at NYCFC.


(They resemble each other.)