The Swamp

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:46 pm**

Nonlinear FC wrote:* I'd also wager that it was meant to pucker up a bunch of folks, including the president, as to exactly how deep Mueller already is wrt to sources and intimate knowledge of the Russian connection. I'd also SPECULATE that part of the message here is that Papadopoulos is just the first guy that they've arrested in this aspect of things (Russian collusion). And folks like Kushner and that Miller weasel guy are likely shitting their pants.

Democratic power Broker Tony Podesta Quits His Lobbying Firm

The Podesta Group is not named in the newly released indictments, but the company is one of two indirectly referenced in the charges. Podesta and another lobbying firm, Mercury LLC, were working with Manafort and his partner, Rick Gates, from 2012-2014 in lobbying to improve the image of the Ukrainian government. In the indictment they are referred to as “Company A and Company B,” according to people familiar with the companies’ involvement.

So is Mueller the one who is actually going to at least partially "drain the swamp?"

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:53 pm**

Yeah, I don't care if he takes a flamethrower to all of it. There is truth that the place, particularly the lobbyists on K Street, need to get got. It's fucking ridiculous how corrupt the system is, especially wrt to foreign interests. We hear a lot about the domestic lobbyists, but the foreign stuff gets almost no attention and it's HUGE in terms of $$.

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:24 pm**

Side note to today's events:

US court bars Trump from reversing transgender troops policy

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:26 pm**

tennbengal wrote:On the are there others front:

https://twitter.com/BySteveReilly/statu ... 1870856192

I tried to find this myself, but couldn't. I also wanted to find out what date the first documents were filed against Manafort.

But I did stumble across another case filed against Papadopoulos that seems to be identical. The case number is 1:17-mj-539. Filed July 28.

The motion to seal in that case notes that Papadopoulos "has indicated that he is willing to cooperate with the government in its ongoing investigation into Russian efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential election." But public disclosure of his appearance would "significantly undermine his ability to serve as a proactive cooperator." Also, "public disclosure of the defendant's arrest and the accompanying criminal charges may alert other subjects to the direction and status of the investigation."

These are officials connected to the President of the United States they're talking about. Damn.

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:39 pm**

Another interesting find in the docket. In a filing on October 4, Mueller's office stated that "the government will very shortly seek, among other investigative steps, to interview certain individuals who may have knowledge of contacts between Russian nationals and the campaign."

I think we can infer from that, and from the unsealing today, that Mueller's team had those meetings over the last three weeks.

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:24 pm**

Apologies for the triple-post. The transcript from Papadopoulos's plea hearing is available online:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -Plea.html

It looks like the Sentencing Guidelines would give him a sentence of under a year, and a fine under $10,000.

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:09 pm**

Steve of phpBB wrote:Apologies for the triple-post. The transcript from Papadopoulos's plea hearing is available online:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -Plea.html

It looks like the Sentencing Guidelines would give him a sentence of under a year, and a fine under $10,000.

Might that indictment be a form of leverage for further indictments to follow, unless he helps to flip?

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:13 pm**

Webster’s Dad has already pled so presumably his plea agreement means no further charges. I would not be surprised to see further charges against Manafort though. This could have just been the low hanging fruit to put pressure on him.

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 8:05 pm**

is it too conspiracy theoryish to speculate that manafort and Papa Doc are going to die very soon under mysterious circumstances? Depending on what they know, Trump seems arrogant enough to try to make his problems permanently disappear...or am I just crazy?

Posted: **Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:26 pm**

TT2.0 wrote:is it too conspiracy theoryish to speculate that manafort and Papa Doc are going to die very soon under mysterious circumstances? Depending on what they know, Trump seems arrogant enough to try to make his problems permanently disappear...or am I just crazy?

Works for the Clintons, so why not.

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:41 am**

https://www.wired.com/story/papadopoulo ... ext-moves/

Nice distillation of what we were talking about yesterday re: the Papadapoulos guilty plea.

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:52 am**

This is what really blew me away yesterday. Unreal that Papadapoulos was so under everyone's radar.

5) Mueller’s running a leak-free ship—and he knows more than we think. Given how closely watched his investigation has been by nearly every corner in Washington—people are even sending in random sightings of him to POLITICO’s Playbook tipsheet after spotting him walking alone on the street—Mueller has tricks up his sleeve. The Papadopoulos arrest three months ago (!) was nowhere on Washington’s radar. And even as every reporter in Washington devoted the weekend to chasing who would be indicted today, we didn’t know it was Manafort until he left his house on the way to the FBI’s Washington Field Office.
Capitol Hill Republicans and talking heads on Fox News have wailed over leaks from the special counsel office—and there’s quite the precedent in Washington for just that. Ken Starr’s Whitewater case was all but an open book. But Monday proved what reporters in Washington have known all fall: Mueller is playing close to the vest. Leaks, such as they’ve come, have primarily stemmed from defense attorneys, Capitol Hill, and other players outside of Mueller’s orbit. The former FBI director, always known for keeping his head down and eschewing the media spotlight, continues to do just that. In a city where it seems increasingly hard to keep anything secret, he kept two major ones.

Altogether, it’s enough to leave everyone involved in the Trump campaign wondering: What other secrets does Mueller know? And: Just who else might be cooperating?

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:00 am**

Nonlinear FC wrote:https://www.wired.com/story/papadopoulos-plea-robert-mueller-next-moves/

Nice distillation of what we were talking about yesterday re: the Papadapoulos guilty plea.

Thanks for the link. Definitely a good piece.

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 9:53 am**

"a dither"

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:05 am**

TT2.0 wrote:is it too conspiracy theoryish to speculate that manafort and Papa Doc are going to die very soon under mysterious circumstances? Depending on what they know, Trump seems arrogant enough to try to make his problems permanently disappear...or am I just crazy?

Why else would you deal with the Russians?

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:01 am**

Ha! Do you have a famous name?

https://twitter.com/feeonlyplanner

https://twitter.com/feeonlyplanner/stat ... 5271118849

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:27 am**

EnochRoot wrote:
Steve of phpBB wrote:Apologies for the triple-post. The transcript from Papadopoulos's plea hearing is available online:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -Plea.html

It looks like the Sentencing Guidelines would give him a sentence of under a year, and a fine under $10,000.

Might that indictment be a form of leverage for further indictments to follow, unless he helps to flip?

Papadopoulos has already flipped. They've had him since July, and the motion to seal the proceeding indicated that he agreed to be a proactive cooperator. And the motion to seal the plea hearing, filed in early October, indicated that interviews were shortly going to take place.

I'm assuming he's cooperated all he can at this point, which is why the feds unsealed his case and indicated that they would recommend a light sentence. (The Sentencing Guidelines allow for downward departures if the defendant cooperates with the investigation.)

I don't know if they need to bother adding charges against Manafort. A prosecutor was explaining last night on Maddow that the indictment already contains enough to put Manafort away for life, and it's all provable by documents. I guess they could add more just for the publicity effect, especially if they find stuff involving Trump directly and want something describing him as an "unindicted co-conspirator." Or maybe they add to Gates's indictment.

The Manafort/Gates case is still sealed on PACER. Does anyone know why that case would still be sealed, even though its existence has been publicly unveiled?

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:33 am**

Lets check in on how this is playing on Fox News:

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/925167823378411521

Hey, what's a little lying to the FBI? He's just a kid! No harm, no foul!

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:39 am**

I've read everything from Manafort being a Dem plant to "Russian collusion is made up since it's not in any of the charges!"

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:03 pm**

P.D.X. wrote:I've read everything from Manafort being a Dem plant to "Russian collusion is made up since it's not in any of the charges!"

Yeah, they seem to ignore that Trump chose as his campaign manager *a criminal with a history of colluding with Russia.* An actual foreign agent. With loyalities to an adversarial government.

That is who Trump chose as campaign manager, when he didn't have to.

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:09 pm**

Perhaps a potential reason that the charging document stops short of Manafort's time w/ Trump campaign is that, as Steve said, they already have enough on him to see him rot in prison for his pre-Trump stuff - I am theorizing that by holding back the post-Trump stuff they are hoping to flip him by saying "play ball and spill on Trump campaign shenanigans and the pre-Trump stuff you are dead to rights on is negotiable as part of your plea".

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:18 pm**

tennbengal wrote:Perhaps a potential reason that the charging document stops short of Manafort's time w/ Trump campaign is that, as Steve said, they already have enough on him to see him rot in prison for his pre-Trump stuff - I am theorizing that by holding back the post-Trump stuff they are hoping to flip him by saying "play ball and spill on Trump campaign shenanigans and the pre-Trump stuff you are dead to rights on is negotiable as part of your plea".

Yeah, I think this is likely. And keeping in mind this isn't a zero sum game, I think it's also possible that a) Mueller doesn't want to tip his hand with what he already knows and b) they are still gathering information so they want to pull together as strong of an indictment as possible.

Oh. Something else just struck me. Remember when Trump was squawking so much about how Obama tapped his phones at Trump Tower. Could this be of a "telephone tag" situation, where he had heard that someone was taping his conversations, and he just barfed out that tweet allegation? I mean, if Papa- was wiring a wire or taping phone conversations...

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:26 pm**

Nonlinear FC wrote:Oh. Something else just struck me. Remember when Trump was squawking so much about how Obama tapped his phones at Trump Tower. Could this be of a "telephone tag" situation, where he had heard that someone was taping his conversations, and he just barfed out that tweet allegation? I mean, if Papa- was wiring a wire or taping phone conversations...

That's a good point - though I'm not sure if there is any evidence that Papa would have been talking on the phone to Trump. I think it's more likely the feds tapped Manafort, and Manafort talked to Trump.

Looking at these massive wire transfers to landscapers and clothing stores in the US - how likely is it that these recipients were participating in money laundering also?

This landscaper in the Hamptons got over $250,000 in 2010 and another $250,000+ in 2011. In wire transfers. All in even thousands, many in sums like $50,000 and $40,000. This clearly isn't paying invoices. Is that possibly legit?

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:40 pm**

Trump's random moment where he asked Russia for Hillary's emails in that press conference seems more and more noteworthy now

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:02 pm**

This shit will infuriate you.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... es-mueller

Iglesias breaking it down, reminding us of just what a massive scandal it is the Trump hasn't divested and that Ryan continues to block votes forcing Trump to show his taxes.

I know we've said it a lot, but if a Dem president was acting this way...

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 1:26 pm**

Nonlinear FC wrote:This shit will infuriate you.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... es-mueller

Iglesias breaking it down, reminding us of just what a massive scandal it is the Trump hasn't divested and that Ryan continues to block votes forcing Trump to show his taxes.

I know we've said it a lot, but if a Dem president was acting this way...

If a Dem was acting this way, they'd already be impeached, as it should be. Fuckin' criminal.

Posted: **Tue Oct 31, 2017 3:43 pm**

tennbengal wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:This shit will infuriate you.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... es-mueller

Iglesias breaking it down, reminding us of just what a massive scandal it is the Trump hasn't divested and that Ryan continues to block votes forcing Trump to show his taxes.

I know we've said it a lot, but if a Dem president was acting this way...

If a Dem was acting this way, they'd already be impeached, as it should be. Fuckin' criminal.

I feel if this was Hillary Clinton, she'd already have been assassinated by now. She definitely would have already been impeached, but that would've happened back in April or May. With the level of shit starting to come out, if this was Hillary, treason is all we'd be hearing from Republicans.

Posted: **Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:55 am**

tennbengal wrote:Perhaps a potential reason that the charging document stops short of Manafort's time w/ Trump campaign is that, as Steve said, they already have enough on him to see him rot in prison for his pre-Trump stuff - I am theorizing that by holding back the post-Trump stuff they are hoping to flip him by saying "play ball and spill on Trump campaign shenanigans and the pre-Trump stuff you are dead to rights on is negotiable as part of your plea".

I think it goes silent post Trump to scare the shit out of others who will be getting a sit down in the near future. Even scarier for them if they've already had a sit down, given the Papadopolus plea news and timing. They have no idea what information Meuller has for that time window. Makes no sense for Meuller to show all his cards, and he's handling this as a tactician. Manafort indictment has no real collusion type info as represented, so he made sure to release his spent horse Papa (which does) at the same time. Guarantee that Meuller has additional flips already (Flynn?FlynnJr?) and the behind the scenes squirming in the Trump camp will be insane over the next month.

I think Flynn Jr might be the next card played, and that will be interesting. Can they use the kid to leverage the dad? Prequel to Don Jr?

I have a suspicion that Trump was told to publicly ask Russia for the emails as a way to cover himself. Going by timing, the speech where he asked Russia to get the emails was well after the dates in the Papa stuff. If there was collusion it likely occurred inbetween. For him he could say "I couldn't be aware of any collusion or else I wouldn't have publicly asked them for the emails."

Posted: **Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:32 pm**

Steve of phpBB wrote:
P.D.X. wrote:I've read everything from Manafort being a Dem plant to "Russian collusion is made up since it's not in any of the charges!"

Yeah, they seem to ignore that Trump chose as his campaign manager *a criminal with a history of colluding with Russia.* An actual foreign agent. With loyalities to an adversarial government.

That is who Trump chose as campaign manager, when he didn't have to.

And a National Security Advisor who was still on the payroll as an agent for a thug attempting to transition into a despotic President of Turkey.

Mueller is definitely sitting on indictments for acts committed during Manafort's time with the campaign. This sent the message they are going to try to flip Manafort, and nobody else knows what dirt Mueller has on the campaign. The beauty of PapaD's conviction tells everyone that they will be prosecuted for lying to the Feds. If you worked on the campaign and are going in for questioning, you will be terrified that they know everything, and will be afraid to withhold information. Mueller, ideally, will get evidence based on the interviewees assuming Mueller has that info already. They will all fear Manafort and Gates are spilling on the campaign to get out of charges, and they will assume PapaD wore a wire and Mueller got info through that. Whether PapaD wore a wire or not, they have to work under the assumption he did. If anything comes of all this, reading about how Mueller pulled it off will be a thing of beauty.

Posted: **Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:20 pm**

Square Rob wrote:I think Flynn Jr might be the next card played, and that will be interesting. Can they use the kid to leverage the dad? Prequel to Don Jr?

I have to think they have enough on Flynn Sr to get him without going after his son.

It'll be so great to watch them Lock Him Up.

Posted: **Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:11 pm**

DaveInSeattle wrote:Lets check in on how this is playing on Fox News

The NYT did just that.

Move along, nothing to see here...

Posted: **Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:33 pm**

Some fun in this Vanity Fair article.

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:26 pm**

I see Sessions is now having recovered memories...

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:44 pm**

It's not that surprising but I'm still a bit taken aback at times but how many "Constitutional conservative"/"Founding Fathers!" types are willing to let what should be their guiding principals take a back seat to "FUCK MUSLIMS AND SJWs!".

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:57 pm**

And also lazy poors living the good life.

Man, fuckin' walk into a welfare/section 8 home. Yeah, there are probably some people taking advantage of it just like everything. But their lives suck. If it's such a great life, I'd do it. But it's not, and I want things, and the damn government isn't gonna buy me a Maserati like some morons appear to think.

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:09 pm**

Gunpowder wrote:And also lazy poors living the good life.

I can't remember where I read this phrase, but this is like "Schroedinger's immigrants," who come to the US to take all the jobs and collect all the welfare.

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 4:46 pm**

Steve of phpBB wrote:"Schroedinger's immigrants"

That's great.

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:12 pm**

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/statu ... 4913082369

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:13 pm**

Trump's Twitter account has gone away

Posted: **Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:16 pm**

Came back. Fucking Twitter makes it almost impossible to gauge real-time on Twitter.

The Swamp

The Indictment Thread (Trump Admin Meltdown Thread Part II)

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