The Swamp

Another thing to keep in mind about who's taking on what risks is that Shohei doesn't actually need the money. So even though he's taking a risk from a financial standpoint, it's not like one of us deferring 98% of our salaries for ten years.

Mr. D, are you able to easily figure out what the present value of the entire deal is, as of today, using a five percent (or whatever) discount rate?

In other words, looking at the last year of the deal, the Dodgers have agreed to pay Shohei $68 million in 2043 for baseball he'll play in 2033. As of 2033, the value of the $68 million will be around $45 million. But as of today, it's only about $30 million, right?

I'm guessing the total present value of the deal would be around $375MM to $400MM. Is that in the ballpark?

I think I came up with 365mill, using MLB's discount rate of 4.43%. Didn't save my work.

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 3:22 pm I think I came up with 365mill, using MLB's discount rate of 4.43%. Didn't save my work.

Sounds good enough. Does that include the $2 million they're paying him every year?

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 3:23 pm

A_B wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 3:22 pm I think I came up with 365mill, using MLB's discount rate of 4.43%. Didn't save my work.

Sounds good enough. Does that include the $2 million they're paying him every year?

Yes.

I've seen all diff numbers depending on the variables people use, but I also think a lot of those people are coming in low because they're not considering that all long term deals are paid over X years. Like the present value of Judge's contract relative to Ohtani's isn't the full $360MM.

Any idea if the teams are able to insure these contracts, and how much that insurance costs?

Steve of phpBB wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 3:43 pm Any idea if the teams are able to insure these contracts, and how much that insurance costs?

They have to prove they have the money available to pay it within 2 years of the start. I'm sure they can insure it for injury to offset some but I cannot begin to imagine what those actuarial tables would look like. Especially with a guy on his 2nd TJ as mentioned above.

degenerasian wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 2:51 pm Is baseball even a star-driven league anymore? This is not the NBA. Also baseball is such a regional sport now this does nothing to the national numbers. The Dodgers chances of making the world series with or without Ohtani are very slim due to the randomness of the playoffs. Local tv rights are really about the 162 game content, not the playoffs. So I don't see Ohtani enhancing anything, he doesn't even do press conferences.

In Toronto that may have been different, they are owned by a media company who would have used Ohtani to promote basically anything. Which is probably what Ohtani doesn't want because he's a private guy who again, doesn't do press conferences.

First sentence of the wikipedia entry for the network holding the Dodgers' local television rights:

Spectrum SportsNet LA and Spectrum Deportes LA (otherwise known as simply SportsNet LA and Deportes LA and originally known as Time Warner Cable SportsNet LA) is an American regional sports network jointly owned by the Los Angeles Dodgers Major League Baseball team and Charter Communications through its acquisition of Time Warner Cable in May 2016.

Wonder how many people sign up for cable television in LA now...

This is pretty excellent

Rumors Glasnow is headed to LAD which is insanely confusing only because I can argue both sides aggressively rather than just one.

(The argument is “JFC Glasnow is elite and absolutely worth the risk” versus “TB wouldn’t trade him for that return unless they know 2024 won’t be good”. If like the White Sox were on either side of this trade I’d know the White Sox side lost.)

I read that the Giants offered pretty much the same deal as did the Dodgers, but that he chose Los Angeles. I don’t know if I should be bummed out, or should feel like we dodged a bullet.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2023 12:45 am I read that the Giants offered pretty much the same deal as did the Dodgers, but that he chose Los Angeles. I don’t know if I should be bummed out, or should feel like we dodged a bullet.

You were used like a pawn like we were.

sancarlos wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2023 12:45 am I read that the Giants offered pretty much the same deal as did the Dodgers, but that he chose Los Angeles. I don’t know if I should be bummed out, or should feel like we dodged a bullet.

Giants' fans dodging. What's next? Cats and dogs living together?

I hope they both had fun.

come on...

Yet another reason it is difficult to get free agents to sign with the Pirates...

I still think I’d rather be more directly concerned versus missing out, but the larger MLB ball for a smaller pitcher seems like a decent deal? I mean, I assume not since 1/4 of MLB was in at huge money, but it doesn’t seem like nothing?

Who will be the first to go quietly mad over this graphic?

"OK, I'll pay your $6778 for seasons but NOT A PENNY MORE GODDAMMIT"

Not sure if this is reliable, but…

Not sure a couple private equity ghouls will be better than the Angelos era, but we shall see.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:43 pm Not sure a couple private equity ghouls will be better than the Angelos era, but we shall see.

That was my thought, too.

Interesting.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:43 pm Not sure a couple private equity ghouls will be better than the Angelos era, but we shall see.

It will be.

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:36 am

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:43 pm Not sure a couple private equity ghouls will be better than the Angelos era, but we shall see.

It will be.

I get it. Hopefully ‘absentee landlord’ doesn’t become a term used to describe this group and their handling of their latest acquisition.

But yes, I highly doubt this group bought 40% ownership (and the rest of the Angelos’ shares upon Peter’s passing) without an eye towards extending the homegrown talent.

I keep looking at the FSG’s handling of Mookie Betts and Xander Boegarts though.

Absentee sounds like best case for PE.

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:57 am

tennbengal wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:36 am

EnochRoot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:43 pm Not sure a couple private equity ghouls will be better than the Angelos era, but we shall see.

It will be.

I get it. Hopefully ‘absentee landlord’ doesn’t become a term used to describe this group and their handling of their latest acquisition.

But yes, I highly doubt this group bought 40% ownership (and the rest of the Angelos’ shares upon Peter’s passing) without an eye towards extending the homegrown talent.

I keep looking at the FSG’s handling of Mookie Betts and Xander Boegarts though.

Rubinstein is literally a local - raised in Baltimore area.

Assuming the cost isn’t stupid in terms of the headliner (and I think the elite prospects are too good to go), Burnes seems like exactly the move Baltimore should be making.

I’m hearing Joey Ortiz and DL Hall and the 34th pick.

DL Hall will hurt, but as good as Ortiz was, he’s replaceable. The comp pick will come right back should Burnes roll out of town after this upcoming season. He wanted out of Milwaukee, but now that he’s done that, we’ll see how he likes pitching in Baltimore.

What a 24 hours.

Yeah, that seems like an excellent trade. Burnes exceeds the best case scenario of Hall and Ortiz has no path in Baltimore.

A+ for the orioles on that deal.

Best starter since ... Mussina? Unless you're really into Bedard?

If Burnes bolts after the season, they’ll recoup that pick in the 2025 compensation round, but that #34 pick they’re trading is already mitigated by the fact Gunnar won the AL ROY award (they have the 32nd pick as a result).

mister d wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2024 9:55 pm Best starter since ... Mussina? Unless you're really into Bedard?

Grayson Rodriguez has a really live arm. But yeah, not sure you’re wrong on that one.

I thought you couldn't trade picks in baseball

degenerasian wrote: ↑Thu Feb 01, 2024 11:37 pm I thought you couldn't trade picks in baseball

I think you can trade comp picks.

Yup. New rule.