MLB 2014-2015 Offseason Thread

Post by **brian** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:38 pm

I looked and looked and looked and didn't see one of these, so let's get it started I guess.

If a team loses multiple free agents that received qualifying offers, that just means they get multiple additional first round draft picks right? So if the Tigers lose Scherzer (likely) and Martinez (possibly) they would get three first-round picks?

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 2:41 pm

Yes, I believe so.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:10 pm

Kind of. You no longer get the pick where the Yankees were originally slotted, the Yankees just lose their pick and all teams gaining one pick in the supplemental 1st round. So its bad for the teams who lose the top free agents or lose to teams picking in the 16-20 range, but good for teams who lose free agents to a team that signs multiple comp players.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:13 pm

(Eh, nevermind, its not even really good for the teams that lose to multiple signing teams because Type A players used to carry supplemental 1sts and that team's pick. Still mostly a market suppression tool.)

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 3:43 pm

This system is insane. I mean it's ridiculously stupid but I guess it's not a big deal but HOLY F DID A MEANINGLESS ALLSTAR GAME END IN A TIE? YOU SUCK SELIG!

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:01 pm

Kicking the tires on becoming a Cubs fan.

Post by **brian** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:32 pm

Because of Maddon? F that. He's a very good manager, but seems like kind of a dick. Also, not sure why anyone would WANT to be a Cubs fan if they have other choices. Sounds about as insane as deciding you're a Lions fan.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:29 pm

They have several great prospects coming up and will probably sign a big time pitching free agent or two, so I'm looking forward to hearing how the great Maddon turned the team around because he has costume days.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 5:52 pm

If I were the Blue Jays I would offer Sandoval 100 million. Come join Latino Nation!

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Fri Oct 31, 2014 6:55 pm

EdRomero wrote:They have several great prospects coming up and will probably sign a big time pitching free agent or two, so I'm looking forward to hearing how the great Maddon turned the team around because he has costume days.

I'm looking forward to people dismissing any success the Cubs have because of course every team that brings up some prospects and makes a free agent signing or two becomes overnight contenders.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:56 am

Dtw, Because they are loaded with young talent, a front office with all the clues and a plan, money to get what they need, and a fun and shrewd manager. The Reds smell like feet.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:34 am

If the medicals check out, pairing Scherzer and Lester would be very very cool. Like when the Yankees took the top two starters off the market in the same offseason and won the World Series and boy was CC good.

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:30 am

tennbengal wrote:Dtw, Because they are loaded with young talent, a front office with all the clues and a plan, money to get what they need, and a fun and shrewd manager. The Reds smell like feet.

In that case, I'm a Giants fan. I will now lord the three World Series in five years that "my" team won over all of you (except Howard and SCK who are my staunchest allies).

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:52 pm

Who are the speculated targets to replace Scherzer and/or Martinez if they're both gone?

Astros reportedly close to a deal for Adam Lind, who immediately makes the payroll skyrocket with his $7.5 million salary (and has a team option of $8MM for 2016)

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:54 pm

Now MLBTR says Brewers. I guess we just know that Lind is getting dealt.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:55 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Who are the speculated targets to replace Scherzer and/or Martinez if they're both gone?

Astros reportedly close to a deal for Adam Lind, who immediately makes the payroll skyrocket with his $7.5 million salary (and has a team option of $8MM for 2016)

Looks like Lind's been traded to the Brewers.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 2:14 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Who are the speculated targets to replace Scherzer and/or Martinez if they're both gone?

I have seen nothing written as expected replacements, but I think DET is more likely to re-sign Martinez than Scherzer (who turned down 6 for $144 prior to the season). He's old and wants four years, but I think that is manageable, and while I doubt he matches this year's power numbers, he should still be productive (and can offer a little help at first if Cabrera needs a day off - not bothering to speculate about his surgery rehab). There is also speculation that they will try to extend Price, who has a year left.

In any case, I don't know that they are going to find a big-dollar replacement for Scherzer. Without him, their rotation slots as Price, Verlander, Sanchez, Porcello, and a fifth starter. Robbie Ray, the big piece returned in the Fister trade, was unimpressive in a couple starts this year because he wasn't ready. Kyle Lobstein looked all right in a couple late starts. They don't have anyone in the minors who is expected to be the guy.

They really need to figure out what they are doing in CF next season, as well as get someone to chip in at either corner OF spot.

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:26 pm

I could look it up but isn't Rajai Davis under contract one more year? I know he's better as part of a platoon but could do worse if you ask him to play 140-150 games in CF. That means they only need to fill one corner OF spot and I'm confident they can handle that. If Rondon and Iglesias are fully healthy they'll be favored to win the ALC for one more year.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:29 pm

That's an awful trade. Can the Jays fire AA already? What a shit GM.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:30 pm

brian wrote:
tennbengal wrote:Dtw, Because they are loaded with young talent, a front office with all the clues and a plan, money to get what they need, and a fun and shrewd manager. The Reds smell like feet.
In that case, I'm a Giants fan. I will now lord the three World Series in five years that "my" team won over all of you (except Howard and SCK who are my staunchest allies).

You are being weirdly literal.

If it's cool with you, I will continue to note how well the Cubs are running things right now and express some jealousy over that.

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:42 pm

tennbengal wrote:
brian wrote:
tennbengal wrote:Dtw, Because they are loaded with young talent, a front office with all the clues and a plan, money to get what they need, and a fun and shrewd manager. The Reds smell like feet.
In that case, I'm a Giants fan. I will now lord the three World Series in five years that "my" team won over all of you (except Howard and SCK who are my staunchest allies).
You are being weirdly literal.

If it's cool with you, I will continue to note how well the Cubs are running things right now and express some jealousy over that.

I guess I mistook what the word "root" means.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:48 pm

The older I get, the more the Reds slip away from me. Really adopted the Orioles since moving to Baltimore. Gotten to a point in my sports life where I can appreciate and admire when a franchise is doing things the right way like the Cubs are.

It's different with the NFL for me. Bengals continue to be completely dominant in terms of rooting interest to exclusion of all else in the NFL.

Baseball? I can freely admire what Chicago is doing and even pull for them a little at this point.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 7:12 pm

brian wrote:I could look it up but isn't Rajai Davis under contract one more year? I know he's better as part of a platoon but could do worse if you ask him to play 140-150 games in CF. That means they only need to fill one corner OF spot and I'm confident they can handle that. If Rondon and Iglesias are fully healthy they'll be favored to win the ALC for one more year.

Not that being favored means much, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Royals take the mantle from the Tigers entering the season if they replace Aoki and Butler with decent players.

I think Brandon McCarthy would be fantastic in Kansas City. I'd be OK with 2-28 for him.

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:38 pm

Stick to NASCAR, bro. 2-28 would be the worst record ever.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:37 pm

Brontoburglar wrote:Not that being favored means much, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Royals take the mantle from the Tigers entering the season if they replace Aoki and Butler with decent players.

I think Brandon McCarthy would be fantastic in Kansas City. I'd be OK with 2-28 for him.

Do the Royals have any internal candidates to replace Shields in the rotation?

How about Aoki and Butler in the lineup?

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:49 pm

brian wrote:I could look it up but isn't Rajai Davis under contract one more year? I know he's better as part of a platoon but could do worse if you ask him to play 140-150 games in CF. That means they only need to fill one corner OF spot and I'm confident they can handle that. If Rondon and Iglesias are fully healthy they'll be favored to win the ALC for one more year.

I think Rajai Davis would be a major weakness as the regular center fielder. He's a bad defender out there, and is likely to get worse as he's 34 or so. He's not much of a hitter against RH pitching. If he's not the short side of a left-field platoon, the Tigers have a problem in the outfield. Since the Tigers have no proven vet or prospect clearly ready for the majors as a left-handed hitting corner outfielder to platoon with him, that makes two outfield positions that are weak as they stand right now.

Assuming Scherzer is gone, Detroit also needs a fifth starter, unless they want to gamble on the soft-tossing Lobstein and the probably-not-ready Robbie Ray.

And a bullpen that is the same as what they finished with, less Joba and adding the rookie Rondon, can't be seen as strong. Though it's not as bad as it seems since Nathan and Soria are likely to be better in 2015 and Rondon has great promise.

And of course, Victor Martinez is on the market. He'll leave a huge hole in the lineup if he departs. And a huge hole in the payroll in future years if they sign him. Keeping him will make it hard to fill holes in the outfield, rotation, and pen.

Final issue: how will Miguel Cabrera recover from a serious ankle surgery?

I think the Tigers are a long way from being favorites in the Central at this point.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:36 am

For next year at least they still have more talent than any other team in the division. Doesn't mean they'll win the division but they should be favored. If not I'm loading up on them at the sportsbook in March.

EdRomero · Post by **EdRomero** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:53 am

DC47 wrote:
brian wrote:I could look it up but isn't Rajai Davis under contract one more year? I know he's better as part of a platoon but could do worse if you ask him to play 140-150 games in CF. That means they only need to fill one corner OF spot and I'm confident they can handle that. If Rondon and Iglesias are fully healthy they'll be favored to win the ALC for one more year.
I think Rajai Davis would be a major weakness as the regular center fielder. He's a bad defender out there, and is likely to get worse as he's 34 or so. He's not much of a hitter against RH pitching. If he's not the short side of a left-field platoon, the Tigers have a problem in the outfield. Since the Tigers have no proven vet or prospect clearly ready for the majors as a left-handed hitting corner outfielder to platoon with him, that makes two outfield positions that are weak as they stand right now.

Assuming Scherzer is gone, Detroit also needs a fifth starter, unless they want to gamble on the soft-tossing Lobstein and the probably-not-ready Robbie Ray.

And a bullpen that is the same as what they finished with, less Joba and adding the rookie Rondon, can't be seen as strong. Though it's not as bad as it seems since Nathan and Soria are likely to be better in 2015 and Rondon has great promise.

And of course, Victor Martinez is on the market. He'll leave a huge hole in the lineup if he departs. And a huge hole in the payroll in future years if they sign him. Keeping him will make it hard to fill holes in the outfield, rotation, and pen.

Final issue: how will Miguel Cabrera recover from a serious ankle surgery?

I think the Tigers are a long way from being favorites in the Central at this point.

Why would you think Nathan would be better next year? I see them spending a lot for bullpen help, which always seems to be hit or miss -- maybe they make a run at Andrew Miller. If the Tigers, or any other team, wants to upgrade their outfield defense, they should try to buy low on Bradley Jr. terrific fielder with terrible bat (which was once rated high so who knows). Sox just don't have space for him with Betts, Castillo, Cespedes, Victorino, and Giancarlo Stanton

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:53 am

I think the odds are that Nathan will be better. Not a sure thing. But he was great as recently as 2013. And much better towards the end of 2014 than earlier. He doesn't appear to have any major injuries.

What team would not want Andrew Miller? The problem is, they have to be willing to pay a non-closer with a short history of excellence something like 4/$40M. If the Tigers retain Victor Martinez and don't want to raise their already high payroll even higher, that's going to be hard to do. It probably means that they're not going to adequately fill holes in the outfield and the starting rotation.

My guess is that Jackie Bradley still has quite a bit of value. Just because Boston has a loaded outfield (congratulations on dealing Middleton and Lars Anderson for Giancarlo Stanton) doesn't mean that there aren't a bunch of teams that would give a lot for him. Especially if they watched the Royals run in the post-season. The Tigers have decimated their high minors, so they have little to offer in terms of prospects and as a win-now team they don't want to create a hole in the majors to fill another one.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 11:16 am

brian wrote:For next year at least they still have more talent than any other team in the division. Doesn't mean they'll win the division but they should be favored. If not I'm loading up on them at the sportsbook in March.

It's a bit soon to tell, isn't it? Each team has important players in free agency. Take them off the rosters and the two teams look pretty even right now.

Who ends up with the most talent next season would seem to depend on post-season player moves and which team gets more improvement from young players who are below their peaks. Then there's Cabrera's recovery from surgery. Is he going to start the season in bad shape, or will the surgery return him to his historic form and allow him to hit with power?

The second factor -- young player development -- favors the Royals. Ventura, Duffy and Finnegan have big upside, and the Royals have a better group of prospects in the high minors. I think that the Tigers are going to have to significantly outspend the Royals in free agency to have a talent edge next year. History says Ilitch is likely to do that. But the Royals are suddenly in much better financial shape as they made a lot of money in October and their tremendous run is going to raise revenue in multiple ways next year. The Tigers didn't draw that well, and obviously didn't go deep into the post-season. With their big payroll, they may have run around break-even last season. So the spending gap may not be as great as some assume.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:53 pm

The Tigers drew as much last year as they did the last four years - 3 million. Where are you getting this stuff? If you really think the Royals are going to be a player in FA you're welcome to your opinion. I don't see it though.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:11 pm

The Tigers drew 2.917M in 2014. That's 36K per game. In 2013 they drew 38K per game, a decline of 5.4% using the actual numbers. So even though they were in a tight pennant race and in the end won the division, their attendance declined. They lost so quickly in the post-season that they didn't do well there either. At the same time, I suspect they've never spent more than in 2014.

The Tigers had good attendance. They're a persistent winner and have marketable stars, and play in a strong mid-major market. But they're not on an upswing, as I expect to be the case with the Royals. They are likely to project a big revenue boost for next season.

I don't expect the Royals to outspend the Tigers in free agency. But I do think that the Tigers may not outspend the Royals by as much as many presume based on past history. To have a significant talent edge, I think they have to bring in a lot more in free agency, because the Royals have young players with higher upside.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:29 pm

I don't see a scenario where the Royals have more talent for 2015 and I'm not sure how that's debatable. Sure, stuff could happen. Cabrera could get killed in Venezuela. Verlander could off himself after getting dumped by Kate Upton. The Royals could sign Scherzer, Lester and Martinez in FA. But short of something really unforeseen the Tigers should be favored to win the Central for one more year only. After that all bets are off.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 5:34 pm

And to be further clear I'm not saying they're GOING to win the Central. It's clear the Royals are capable of it and Cleveland has some talent too. But if I were setting betting odds I would absolutely have the Tigers first. If they're not there's some extreme value there.

Gunpowder · Post by **Gunpowder** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:26 pm

degenerasian wrote:That's an awful trade. Can the Jays fire AA already? What a shit GM.

What's so awful about that trade? Lind is a platoon 1B who can't field.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:34 pm

brian wrote:And to be further clear I'm not saying they're GOING to win the Central. It's clear the Royals are capable of it and Cleveland has some talent too. But if I were setting betting odds I would absolutely have the Tigers first. If they're not there's some extreme value there.

So the Tigers have Scherzer, VMart and Hunter going into free agency, and we have no idea of how they'll be replaced (or re-signed). Last year, for example, they traded Doug Fister so they could afford Joe Nathan. But still you're certain the Tigers will have significantly more talent than the team that won only one less game in the regular season and then went 11-4 in the post-season (versus the Tigers' 0-3) while coming a few plays from winning the World Series? A team that has three of the top under-26 pitchers in baseball, who haven't come close to hitting their ceilings?

A bit premature, in my view.

Post by **brian** » Tue Nov 04, 2014 12:05 am

DC47 wrote:
brian wrote:And to be further clear I'm not saying they're GOING to win the Central. It's clear the Royals are capable of it and Cleveland has some talent too. But if I were setting betting odds I would absolutely have the Tigers first. If they're not there's some extreme value there.
So the Tigers have Scherzer, VMart and Hunter going into free agency, and we have no idea of how they'll be replaced (or re-signed). Last year, for example, they traded Doug Fister so they could afford Joe Nathan. But still you're certain the Tigers will have significantly more talent than the team that won only one less game in the regular season and then went 11-4 in the post-season (versus the Tigers' 0-3) while coming a few plays from winning the World Series? A team that has three of the top under-26 pitchers in baseball, who haven't come close to hitting their ceilings?

A bit premature, in my view.

Well, you're an extremely negative person so that's not surprising. But Kansas City is almost certainly losing their best starting pitcher, who would probably be 3rd at best amongst Detroit's starting pitchers and that's not including Scherzer (Price, Sanchez and then you can argue Shields vs. Verlander). They don't have any likelihood of making any huge free agent splashes, while the Tigers at least could end up making an unexpected signing or two. The Tigers also dominated the Royals in the regular season and did in fact win the division so you can use the small sample size of the playoffs as a bellwether if you want, but the Tigers are getting three players back (Sanchez, Rondon and Iglesias) who were expected to be major contributors, two of which missed the entire season. To my knowledge, the Royals didn't have any major contributors out at the end of the season with injuries.

Again at the risk of being redundant the whole point of my post was that Detroit will be almost certainly, short of some unlikely offseason events, favored to win the AL Central again in 2015. And again, I don't think even most Kansas City fans would dispute this. At the end of the day favored doesn't mean shit. You could get 20-1 odds on the Giants winning the World Series at the BEGINNING OF THE PLAYOFFS. Kansas City could win 100 games next season with their roster constructed essentially as it is now. But odds and real life are two completely different things. However, if you're so certain, let's make an even money bet for $1,000. You or I can back out any time any reason before March 15th. I'll take the Tigers and you get the Royals. Any other team winning the Central is no bet. What do you say?

mister d · Post by **mister d** » Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:51 am

Right now the Tigers are 10/1 and Royals 18/1 to win the World Series, so I think this round goes to Brian. Oddsmakers probably looking at everything you guys have mentioned, but also Detroit's presumably huge upgrade at closer going from Nathan to Verlander.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Tue Nov 04, 2014 2:15 pm

mister d wrote:Right now the Tigers are 10/1 and Royals 18/1 to win the World Series, so I think this round goes to Brian. Oddsmakers probably looking at everything you guys have mentioned, but also Detroit's presumably huge upgrade at closer going from Nathan to Verlander.

I don't know if you're trolling or not and I don't know how I feel if they were to do that and I think I would actually like it even though it goes against lots of things that I believe.

And my head hurts.

DC47 · Post by **DC47** » Tue Nov 04, 2014 9:08 pm

Well, you're an extremely negative person so that's not surprising.

Well, I've been a Lions fan since '61, so I must have some buoyancy of spirit.

but the Tigers are getting three players back (Sanchez, Rondon and Iglesias) who were expected to be major contributors, two of which missed the entire season. To my knowledge, the Royals didn't have any major contributors out at the end of the season with injuries.

Good point, and an advantage to the Tigers that I didn't mention in terms of talent level next season.

Again at the risk of being redundant the whole point of my post was that Detroit will be almost certainly, short of some unlikely offseason events, favored to win the AL Central again in 2015. ....However, if you're so certain, let's make an even money bet for $1,000.

Here and elsewhere it seems to me that you are the one expressing high levels of certainty. I'm the one who says that the teams, as they stand now (with free agents off the rosters), are pretty close in talent level, and that people are assuming with too much certainty that the Tigers will vastly out-spend the Royals in free agency. I presented some evidence to support both positions. My view is that it's a bit premature to reach a conclusion. That's hardly a position of certainty.

I've never bet against the Tigers. What would be the fun in that for a lifetime fan?

I did once bet my modest professional reputation by stating that a particular baseball team would make the World Series within the next two years, after a long dry spell. No one thought I was particularly negative in this. Partly on the basis of this talent evaluation, I recommended to my client that he try to buy the team.

He did. Next fall, the champagne flowed like champagne in a champion's locker room.