College Football November 2014

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:38 pm

Also, Missouri's defense is the real deal. I think Missouri keeps it close against Alabama and could beat Mississippi State. I don't think they beat Alabama by any stretch, but they cover whatever the spread is.

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:02 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
brian wrote:I know there's been quite a few in the 14-17 range. Not sure about any 20 or higher.
What was Missouri/Oklahoma in 2008? My guess is that was pretty big. We went into that game knowing it'd be a blowout.

Oklahoma was favored by 17 in that game. I haven't done a lot of digging, but that's the highest I've found so far. Marshall might have been a three TD favorite in a MAC title game in the late 90s.

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:06 am

Found a great resource.

Marshall was a 20.5 point favorite in 1999, but Florida was a 24 point favorite over Arkansas in 1995 (and covered.)

(though the apparent record was last year, somehow forgotten by me...FSU was favored by 30 over Duke).

Post by **brian** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:22 pm

Jameis having a Geno-esque performance today.

HaulCitgo · Post by **HaulCitgo** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:08 pm

If bama loses tonight does the sec get anyone in the playoff? Maybe the barrett injury saves them but the whole league would have two losses before the championship game.

rass · Post by **rass** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:14 pm

It's OK Alabama. Sometimes it's nacho night.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:24 pm

I dont think a 2 loss bama gets in to playoff unless one or both of TCU/Baylor also has two losses.

rass · Post by **rass** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:32 pm

AB_skin_test wrote:I dont think a 2 loss bama gets in to playoff unless one or both of TCU/Baylor also has two losses.

Or FSU gets tripled-optioned to death next week? Though the SEC champ missing the playoff would be fun, from my standpoint.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:50 pm

I can see FSU struggling badly with GT but Famous Jameis has the midas touch.

If bama can come back to win this, Mariota might not be as big of a shoo in as may be thunk. Cooper best player on field right now.

Pruitt · Post by **Pruitt** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:54 pm

This Amari Cooper kid is pretty darn good.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:54 pm

Mike Slive on the phone with Malzahn right now telling him to throw it probably.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:26 pm

Bo Pelini fired by Nebraska, didn't see that one coming.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:33 pm

degenerasian wrote:Bo Pelini fired by Nebraska, didn't see that one coming.

If by that, you mean "Only sorta surprising given the Friday win but also not surprising either," then, yes.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:47 pm

9 wins every year. It's not like he pulled a hoke. I think it's pretty surprising.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 7:08 pm

AB_skin_test wrote:9 wins every year. It's not like he pulled a hoke. I think it's pretty surprising.

On the surface, I think it is. But there's been some hinted drama behind the scenes at Nebraska and Pelini might have escaped last year with the aftermath of the Iowa game.

Plus, there's the whole "unrealistic Nebraska expectations" thing which I think can't be ignored. (And I feel that many of the people happy with this decision fit in that category.) While Pelini was doing well at Nebraska with the consistent 9-win seasons, Eichorst mentioned today the lack of big wins and there's the thought that Nebraska should be the power it was in the Osborne days.

Given the current landscape of college football, I'm really not sure that's realistically possible, which is why Nebraska doesn't have much margin for error in this hire. Just look at two of the three post-Osborne coaches. They've both won a shit-ton of games and they've both been run out since they didn't win enough.

It's not impossible though, and I guess Nebraska deserves some credit (insanity?) for reaching for the stars and not being competent with sustained success but not greatness. We'll see how this plays out, but I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes Callahan part 2 and people realize that they had a good thing with Pelini.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:23 pm

I'm not a big college football fan, so I'm willing to be told why I'm wrong, but...

The fan base/booster insanity is a big thing, basically because these are people who are 40+ years old and have opinions that are miles away from what 17- and 18-year-old kids do.

Many fans have completely unrealistic expectations for today if they support a "historically" strong school. Right now, there are probably a maximum of six programs that can be truly elite at any one time. Nebraska is not one. Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama are there right now. Beyond that, USC, Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan, LSU, and Auburn could be there (maybe Miami could get back to this group, but their reputation stinks right now and rightfully so).

Any other school, Nebraska included, needs a home run hire as a coach who can successfully recruit nationally and that is dealing with kids who don't know that Nebraska was ever any good. While they have the financial ability to make a home run hire (I base this opinion strictly on what I saw was the size of the nut to can Pelini), I don't know that there are any "hot coordinators" or non Power-5 head coaches who are that perfect hire.

I base this on the college football I do know, which is that there are lunatic Syracuse fans who can't believe they are not able to recruit and hire a coach to get them to 9-10 wins a season on an annual basis. They don't understand that why coaches can't just tell a high school player that Donovan McNabb went to SU to get him to sign and also wonder why the program won't bring the number 44 out of retirement to use as a recruiting tool for a great high school running back. Of course, kids they are recruiting now do not give a shit about Donovan McNabb since he was at Syracuse when they were in diapers and the truly great players who wore 44 at Syracuse were all in the NFL before 1970 (unless there are tons of closet Rob Konrad fans on high school football teams).

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:24 pm

Pelini won a lot, but seems to rub people the wrong way, too. Methinks that maybe the way he often shrieks complete outrage like somebody shit in his bed rubs the Nebraska psyche wrongly. And, folks haven't forgotten that tirade against the fans that was made public last year, either.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:28 pm

I'm less surprised now reading all your analysis.

Mostly, I'll miss Fauxpelini. That might have been the best thing on Twitter.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:33 pm

Some big numbers in the college championship games

Boise St -17 vs Fresno in MWCCG
Oregon -14 vs Arizona in Pac 12 CG
Alabama -14 vs Mizzou in SECCG

(FSU -4 vs GT in ACC CG)

Some tough games to handicap. I might stay away and wait for the bowls where I usually clean up.

Post by **Shirley** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:58 pm

brian wrote:
Shirley wrote:
brian wrote:I didn't realize he was only in his third year. Coming at it as an outsider I'd say he deserves a fourth year. You almost always gotta give a guy four years unless he's a real fuckup.
No, he's in his fifth year. We pretty much know who he is by now. I guess the hope is that he has better assistants now, except for the offensive coordinator, who seems lost. The thing is, London has been making great inroads into The Hokies lock on so much of the great in-state talent, particularly from the Tidewater area. With Tech really sliding, there may be a rare chance to take over as the preeminent state program and a coaching change would put that all at risk.
Gotcha. I thought it was three for some reason. But you're right. If they think there's a chance to usurp VT then it's worth giving him another year.

Nothing like blowing a late lead against a mediocre Hokies team that scored 3 points in a double overtime game against Wake Forest last week. UVA let them drive the field for the winning touchdown in only 65 seconds.

The fans are NOT happy. London should kiss Tony Bennett's feet for diverting attention so quickly and so positively. Why stay mad at the inept football program when you can just watch the hoops team hold a Big Ten team to only 26 points in an entire game?

sancarlos · Post by **sancarlos** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:01 pm

Colorado State coach Jim McElwain has rebuilt the program admirably in his three years. Sadly, but not surprisingly, that makes him a rumored candidate for jobs at bigger programs. In this case, he is being mentioned in the local media regarding the Florida head coaching job. Notably, his previous job was as offensive coordinator for Alabama.

Post by **brian** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:35 pm

sancarlos wrote:Colorado State coach Jim McElwain has rebuilt the program admirably in his three years. Sadly, but not surprisingly, that makes him a rumored candidate for jobs at bigger programs. In this case, he is being mentioned in the local media regarding the Florida head coaching job. Notably, his previous job was as offensive coordinator for Alabama.

Don't think it'll be Florida but he's gone for sure.

wlu_lax6 · Post by **wlu_lax6** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:48 am

Looks like UAB is shutting down its football program.

tennbengal · Post by **tennbengal** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:30 am

I am cool with them just skipping straight to an Alabama/Oregon championship game.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:40 am

brian wrote:
sancarlos wrote:Colorado State coach Jim McElwain has rebuilt the program admirably in his three years. Sadly, but not surprisingly, that makes him a rumored candidate for jobs at bigger programs. In this case, he is being mentioned in the local media regarding the Florida head coaching job. Notably, his previous job was as offensive coordinator for Alabama.
Don't think it'll be Florida but he's gone for sure.

Given his $7.5 million buyout from the extension he just signed, I think it has to be Florida or Nebraska if he leaves. It's going to have to be a program that can afford it.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 9:44 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
brian wrote:
sancarlos wrote:Colorado State coach Jim McElwain has rebuilt the program admirably in his three years. Sadly, but not surprisingly, that makes him a rumored candidate for jobs at bigger programs. In this case, he is being mentioned in the local media regarding the Florida head coaching job. Notably, his previous job was as offensive coordinator for Alabama.
Don't think it'll be Florida but he's gone for sure.
Given his $7.5 million buyout from the extension he just signed, I think it has to be Florida or Nebraska if he leaves. It's going to have to be a program that can afford it.

All the chips haven't fallen yet. Don't think it's unthinkable that Sumlin jumps to the NFL or Spurrier retires or that he doesn't end up on Michigan's radar, etc.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:51 am

Here's the only reason I don't get the Pelini firing -- there's not really any obvious home run hires out there. Obviously nothing's a sure thing, but every year it seems like there's a coordinator or two who's the absolutely hotness or a guy who's available for whatever reason (like Saban after getting cut from the NFL and taking some time off) and there's not really anyone like that this year in my opinion.

I presume Pelini's buyout reduces every year as is the norm so instead of spending $7M to buy him out this year, why not see what develops next year. Unless you really think recruiting is going to be compromised, which didn't really seem like the case (that's why Michigan has to get rid of Hoke -- they've had like 6-8 de-commits this season already, if they had a top 5 class coming in you might be tempted to give him another year).

The obvious guy at Nebraska to me is Craig Bohl, but I don't see him leaving Wyoming after a year. It might have been more possible to get him after two years. (Or they should have axed Pelini last year and just went after Bohl at NDST.)

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:52 am

brian wrote:Here's the only reason I don't get the Pelini firing -- there's not really any obvious home run hires out there. Obviously nothing's a sure thing, but every year it seems like there's a coordinator or two who's the absolutely hotness or a guy who's available for whatever reason (like Saban after getting cut from the NFL and taking some time off) and there's not really anyone like that this year in my opinion.

I presume Pelini's buyout reduces every year as is the norm so instead of spending $7M to buy him out this year, why not see what develops next year. Unless you really think recruiting is going to be compromised, which didn't really seem like the case (that's why Michigan has to get rid of Hoke -- they've had like 6-8 de-commits this season already, if they had a top 5 class coming in you might be tempted to give him another year).

The obvious guy at Nebraska to me is Craig Bohl, but I don't see him leaving Wyoming after a year. It might have been more possible to get him after two years. (Or they should have axed Pelini last year and just went after Bohl at NDST.)

Lane Kiffin. Duh.

Muschamp will be in Auburn by tomorrow, right?

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:00 pm

I think the first (realistic) guy Nebraska should be talking to is Pat Narduzzi, but that might not be sexy enough for the largely unrealistic Nebraska fanbase (I readily concur with DSafetyGuy on this point. Nebraska just isn't a top 10 job any more and might never be again. Even Michigan is running the risk of not being a top 10 job any longer, depending on how badly (or not) they fuck up their next hire.)

govmentchedda · Post by **govmentchedda** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:05 pm

AB_skin_test wrote:
brian wrote:Here's the only reason I don't get the Pelini firing -- there's not really any obvious home run hires out there. Obviously nothing's a sure thing, but every year it seems like there's a coordinator or two who's the absolutely hotness or a guy who's available for whatever reason (like Saban after getting cut from the NFL and taking some time off) and there's not really anyone like that this year in my opinion.

I presume Pelini's buyout reduces every year as is the norm so instead of spending $7M to buy him out this year, why not see what develops next year. Unless you really think recruiting is going to be compromised, which didn't really seem like the case (that's why Michigan has to get rid of Hoke -- they've had like 6-8 de-commits this season already, if they had a top 5 class coming in you might be tempted to give him another year).

The obvious guy at Nebraska to me is Craig Bohl, but I don't see him leaving Wyoming after a year. It might have been more possible to get him after two years. (Or they should have axed Pelini last year and just went after Bohl at NDST.)
Lane Kiffin. Duh.

Muschamp will be in Auburn by tomorrow, right?

One would think. Although a friend reminded me that Fisher and Muschamp own a beachhouse together on the redneck riviera. Maybe Charles Kelly to Auburn and Angry Will to FSU?

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:13 pm

brian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:
brian wrote:
sancarlos wrote:Colorado State coach Jim McElwain has rebuilt the program admirably in his three years. Sadly, but not surprisingly, that makes him a rumored candidate for jobs at bigger programs. In this case, he is being mentioned in the local media regarding the Florida head coaching job. Notably, his previous job was as offensive coordinator for Alabama.
Don't think it'll be Florida but he's gone for sure.
Given his $7.5 million buyout from the extension he just signed, I think it has to be Florida or Nebraska if he leaves. It's going to have to be a program that can afford it.
All the chips haven't fallen yet. Don't think it's unthinkable that Sumlin jumps to the NFL or Spurrier retires or that he doesn't end up on Michigan's radar, etc.

Sumlin isn't going to jump to the NFL after a disappointing season -- especially as Houston and Dallas aren't firing coaches. (Full caveat that Dallas could Dallas.)

Michigan is interesting given that they're waiting. But they're in the Florida/Nebraska category as a program can afford it. And Spurrier isn't retiring.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:15 pm

At this point, I don't think you can unequivocally say that Spurrier's not retiring. I wouldn't say it's likely this year, but I wouldn't put it past him. I think when he does it's not going to be some announcement at the beginning of the season, he's just going to pack up his golf clubs one day, drop the mic and take off to Florida.

ETA: To perhaps be more clear I agree Spurrier probably isn't going to retire this year. The chances of that are maybe 5 percent or so. But he's the kind of guy that if he decided to check out after their bowl game or something it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.

Nonlinear FC · Post by **Nonlinear FC** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:46 pm

brian wrote:I think the first (realistic) guy Nebraska should be talking to is Pat Narduzzi, but that might not be sexy enough for the largely unrealistic Nebraska fanbase (I readily concur with DSafetyGuy on this point. Nebraska just isn't a top 10 job any more and might never be again. Even Michigan is running the risk of not being a top 10 job any longer, depending on how badly (or not) they fuck up their next hire.)

It pains me to say this, but MI is absolutely in danger right now. I'm not trying to be an overreacting homer--I really believe they are mortally wounded.

Hoke's staff is on recruiting trips... today. The folks over at MGoBlog are freaking out (which means fuckall, but just to share the general tone of a section of the fan base.)

Apparently, there's a clause that stipulates if he is still in the job Jan. 1 his buyout goes down $1 million. So the speculation is that the acting AD is just waiting for that date to make the official move.

But, in the meantime, awkwardness abounds. And it also leaves a lot of the fan base very concerned about the possibility of retaining Hoke. Which is insane, but fans=fanatics...

At least they found the right guy for the basketball program.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:37 pm

tennbengal wrote:I am cool with them just skipping straight to an Alabama/Oregon championship game.

I'm curious. If there wasn't a playoff, how much controversy would there be to select two one-loss teams into the BCS Championship over an undefeated from a major conference.

There would certainly be screams for a playoff and yet even expanded to 4 teams, some don't think FSU belongs.

Post by **Shirley** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:48 pm

degenerasian wrote:
tennbengal wrote:I am cool with them just skipping straight to an Alabama/Oregon championship game.
I'm curious. If there wasn't a playoff, how much controversy would there be to select two one-loss teams into the BCS Championship over an undefeated from a major conference.

There would certainly be screams for a playoff and yet even expanded to 4 teams, some don't think FSU belongs.

That would be a HUGE controversy. I don't think it would ever happen. The only reason Alabama and Oregon have passed FSU in the standings is that FSU would still make the playoff (as things stand now).

If it were still 2 teams only, there's NO chance an undefeated, defending National Champion from a Tier 1 program like FSU would ever be passed over by two one-loss teams.

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:32 pm

Nonlinear FC wrote:Hoke's staff is on recruiting trips... today. The folks over at MGoBlog are freaking out (which means fuckall, but just to share the general tone of a section of the fan base.)

I know this is new territory for Michigan, but with no practices to prep for in the next three months, what does that segment of the fanbase think should they be doing? Heck, some of Syracuse's coaches may have been on planes yesterday (to do visits today). The only real difference is that the guys in orange were able to make reservations a couple weeks ago without fear of change fees.

Post by **brian** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:45 pm

DSafetyGuy wrote:
Nonlinear FC wrote:Hoke's staff is on recruiting trips... today. The folks over at MGoBlog are freaking out (which means fuckall, but just to share the general tone of a section of the fan base.)
I know this is new territory for Michigan, but with no practices to prep for in the next three months, what does that segment of the fanbase think should they be doing? Heck, some of Syracuse's coaches may have been on planes yesterday (to do visits today). The only real difference is that the guys in orange were able to make reservations a couple weeks ago without fear of change fees.

Yeah, that's just it though -- Michigan fans are spoiled to the point where they don't realize if a coach technically still has a job he's out recruiting. The irony is one of the main reasons Hoke isn't going to be dangling very long is how badly this year's recruiting class has been poached. The interim AD has to made a decision and do it fast. I know he's waiting on Harbaugh but he may not have that luxury.

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:32 pm

brian wrote:Prediction on Alabama/Mizzou spread? I'm thinking Bama -20. Wonder what the largest CCG spread ever is?

2011 Pac-12 Championship game should have had a pretty big spread. UCLA (6-5) was coming off of a 50-0 beat down by USC (who was ineligible), and had to go to into Autzen vs #8 Ducks. Wiki says the Ducks were a 4 point fav, but I find that hard to believe.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:54 pm

brian wrote:At this point, I don't think you can unequivocally say that Spurrier's not retiring. I wouldn't say it's likely this year, but I wouldn't put it past him. I think when he does it's not going to be some announcement at the beginning of the season, he's just going to pack up his golf clubs one day, drop the mic and take off to Florida.

ETA: To perhaps be more clear I agree Spurrier probably isn't going to retire this year. The chances of that are maybe 5 percent or so. But he's the kind of guy that if he decided to check out after their bowl game or something it wouldn't be the least bit surprising.

He said today he was not retiring, which is what I was referring to. So, I'm pretty good with unequivocally.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:55 pm

Keg wrote:
brian wrote:Prediction on Alabama/Mizzou spread? I'm thinking Bama -20. Wonder what the largest CCG spread ever is?
2011 Pac-12 Championship game should have had a pretty big spread. UCLA (6-5) was coming off of a 50-0 beat down by USC (who was ineligible), and had to go to into Autzen vs #8 Ducks. Wiki says the Ducks were a 4 point fav, but I find that hard to believe.

-31 here