College Football Championship Week & Beyond

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:46 am

I did not expect FSU to get jumped by TCU.

If florida st plays uninspired in a win while Ohio state Wins really big, could we really be looking at a scenario where the undefeated reigning national champion is deemed the 5th best team in the country?

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:51 am

AB_skin_test wrote:I did not expect FSU to get jumped by TCU.

If florida st plays uninspired in a win while Ohio state Wins really big, could we really be looking at a scenario where the undefeated reigning national champion is deemed the 5th best team in the country?

Short answer: no. Maybe if tOSU's loss was a little better than Va Tech at home I guess, but I don't see a scenario where they get passed by anyone this weekend if they win.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:59 am

Yeah. If they're trying to legitimize this process, dropping the undefeated defending national champ from the final selection probably isn't the way to do it.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:05 am

To be the champ you gotta hope the champ gets screwed and stays home!

I'm certainly no FSU fan, but that would be absurd.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:10 am

Jeff Long pretty much said that FSU was in with a win.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:18 am

I guess any earlier CW that the committee would eventually recognize Baylor for the head to head win over TCU is pretty much dead, no?

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:26 am

rass wrote:I guess any earlier CW that the committee would eventually recognize Baylor for the head to head win over TCU is pretty much dead, no?

Yeah, the committee has said they're looking at the entire season moreso than head-to-head. TCU is being rewarded (and Baylor punished) for a stronger non-conference schedule.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:28 am

Heard on Mike & Mike that Baylor had the worst non-conference schedule in the country.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 9:33 am

AB_skin_test wrote:Heard on Mike & Mike that Baylor had the worst non-conference schedule in the country.

Don't tell Syb.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:03 am

AB_skin_test wrote:Heard on Mike & Mike that Baylor had the worst non-conference schedule in the country.

Yeah, but TCU and Baylor play in the same conference. That's about as close of a schedule match as you're ever gonna get when you're comparing two teams. They play in the same conference and they played head-to-head. Baylor won that game and finished higher in the conference standings. I honestly don't see how you can rank TCU higher after that.

Looking their nonconference schedules, both played SMU. The only real difference is TCU played and handily beat Minnesota. That's impressive, but it was in September and to me, that's more than offset by the head-to-head loss to Baylor.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:07 am

Shirley wrote:
AB_skin_test wrote:Heard on Mike & Mike that Baylor had the worst non-conference schedule in the country.
Yeah, but TCU and Baylor play in the same conference. That's about as close of a schedule match as you're ever gonna get when you're comparing two teams. They play in the same conference and they played head-to-head. Baylor won that game and finished higher in the conference standings. I honestly don't see how you can rank TCU higher after that.

Looking their nonconference schedules, both played SMU. The only real difference is TCU played and handily beat Minnesota. That's impressive, but it was in September and to me, that's more than offset by the head-to-head loss to Baylor.

Just to pick a nit, they didn't "finish higher in the conference standings". They have the same record in the conference. Head-to-head has meaning I agree, but it's not the end-all, be-all. If Baylor had blown TCU out or even just beat them by 10-14 points, I would be arguing for Baylor, but a 3 point win at home that required a 21-point comeback in the final minutes thanks to a sketchy PI call isn't exactly the second coming of Tyson beating Spinks.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:09 am

That Baylor-TCU game was a toss up to me. Yes, Baylor won, but it wasn't like they blew them off the field.

Ideally one of them will lose this weekend and its a moo point.

rass · Post by **rass** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:11 am

AB_skin_test wrote:That Baylor-TCU game was a toss up to me. Yes, Baylor won, but it wasn't like they blew them off the field.

Ideally one of them will lose this weekend and its a moo point.

This post sponsored by the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:12 am

I find it ironical (not talking about Dave necessarily here) that a lot of people who are saying FSU deserves to be dropped in the rankings/seedings because of their unimpressive wins are also making the case for Baylor over TCU based on....an unimpressive win. Can't have it both ways.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:23 am

I did a quick analysis of TCU vs. Baylor re: schedule and how they performed. I threw out the two softies for each, and could be convinced to throw out SMU. Bolded one was "better win/performance"

Texas - Baylor on road +21 (7 PA), TCU on road +38 (10 PA)
SMU - Baylor +45 (0pa), TCU on road +56 (0pa)
Texas Tech - Baylor +2 (46 PA), TCU +55 (27 PA)
Oklahoma - Baylor on road +34 (14 PA), TCU +4 (33 PA)
OK State - Baylor +21 (28 PA), TCU +33, (9PA)
Kansas - Baylor +46 (14 PA), TCU on Road +4 (30 PA)
WVU - Baylor on Road, -14(41 PA), TCU on Road +1 (30 PA)

5-2 advantage to TCU. Even if both the Iowa State and Kansas State results both "favor Baylor" TCU would have a slight edge.

And losing to Baylor is better than losing to WVU.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:33 am

Sun Belt bowl bid announced and Texas State is left out. They basically took a 6-6 South Alabama team over 7-5 Texas State. Sorry, Giff.

Like I said, I fully expect the MAC to pull the same kind of shenanigans to make sure Ohio's bowl streak continues even though 7-5 Central Michigan beat 6-6 Ohio.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:35 am

brian wrote:Sun Belt bowl bid announced and Texas State is left out. They basically took a 6-6 South Alabama team over 7-5 Texas State. Sorry, Giff.

Like I said, I fully expect the MAC to pull the same kind of shenanigans to make sure Ohio's bowl streak continues even though 7-5 Central Michigan beat 6-6 Ohio.

I did a quick analysis of CMU vs. Ohio re: schedule and how they performed. I threw out the two softies for each, t . Bolded one was "better win/performance"

Wait. No i didn't.

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:35 am

brian wrote:Just to pick a nit, they didn't "finish higher in the conference standings". They have the same record in the conference.

Fair point. Same record, but Baylor gets the tie-breaker (if not officially, then most would consider it that way). But that's double-counting the head-to-head win if I also argue that as a key differentiator.

BTW, I understand their game was tight (and ridiculously high scoring), but winning still has merit. These arguments about rankings always come down to two things - how good you think a team is and how well that team did that year (wins and losses). In this case, the two teams are very close in both - computers think TCU is a bit better and Baylor finished a tie-breaker higher in the conference. Given that, the only fair thing to me is to use their head-to-head game as the tie-breaker (recognizing the double-counting I mentioned above).

And given that, FSU should absolutely be ranked ahead of either of them!

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:39 am

If TCU was just destroying teams other than the Baylor loss, I could see it. People are pointing to Baylor barely beating Tech last week (after losing their QB to a complete cheap shot), but TCU had their struggles as well, barely beating the worst team in the conference as well as needing a last second FG to beat WVa. But I don't see how you can look at common opponents and determine that losing to Baylor and beating Minnesota is more impressive than beating the #3 team in the country. Not to mention, if this argument goes into next week, Baylor will have also beat the #9 team. To me, head to head should win out unless the other team is some sort of dominating team that is the overwhelming favorite to win it all. Better losses shouldn't trump better wins. And if Baylor wins this weekend, they have both two of those things. It's basically coming down to their win over Minnesota and their one-point win over the team Baylor lost to that they were tied with on the road going into the fourth quarter.

brian wrote:Sun Belt bowl bid announced and Texas State is left out. They basically took a 6-6 South Alabama team over 7-5 Texas State. Sorry, Giff.

This has been an awesome week for the teams I follow! SunBelt was probably pissed because the rumors about us wanting to go to Conf. USA.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:43 am

Giff wrote:If TCU was just destroying teams other than the Baylor loss, I could see it. People are pointing to Baylor barely beating Tech last week (after losing their QB to a complete cheap shot), but TCU had their struggles as well, barely beating the worst team in the conference as well as needing a last second FG to beat WVa. But I don't see how you can look at common opponents and determine that losing to Baylor and beating Minnesota is more impressive than beating the #3 team in the country. Not to mention, if this argument goes into next week, Baylor will have also beat the #9 team. To me, head to head should win out unless the other team is some sort of dominating team that is the overwhelming favorite to win it all. Better losses shouldn't trump better wins. And if Baylor wins this weekend, they have both two of those things. It's basically coming down to their win over Minnesota and their one-point win over the team Baylor lost to that they were tied with on the road going into the fourth quarter.

brian wrote:Sun Belt bowl bid announced and Texas State is left out. They basically took a 6-6 South Alabama team over 7-5 Texas State. Sorry, Giff.
This has been an awesome week for the teams I follow! SunBelt was probably pissed because the rumors about us wanting to go to Conf. USA.

So did TCU.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:48 am

Shirley wrote:
brian wrote:Just to pick a nit, they didn't "finish higher in the conference standings". They have the same record in the conference.
Fair point. Same record, but Baylor gets the tie-breaker (if not officially, then most would consider it that way). But that's double-counting the head-to-head win if I also argue that as a key differentiator.

BTW, I understand their game was tight (and ridiculously high scoring), but winning still has merit. These arguments about rankings always come down to two things - how good you think a team is and how well that team did that year (wins and losses). In this case, the two teams are very close in both - computers think TCU is a bit better and Baylor finished a tie-breaker higher in the conference. Given that, the only fair thing to me is to use their head-to-head game as the tie-breaker (recognizing the double-counting I mentioned above).

And given that, FSU should absolutely be ranked ahead of either of them!

The issue becomes with this here:

The following procedure will determine the Big 12 Conference representative to the Sugar Bowl (or alternate College Football Playoff game when the Sugar Bowl is a semifinal) in the event of a first-place or alternate place tie (for the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process):

If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

Basically, the Big 12 is trying to save face here. They're more than willing to break a tie if neither TCU or Baylor is in contention for a Playoff spot, but since there's a Playoff spot on the line, they're trying to market them both as champions in case one team in the top four loses and they can get the "co-champions" in the CFP

While I understand what the Big 12 is trying to do, with the "One true champion" tagline and the fact that you have the tiebreaker prominently displayed on your website, it's transparent and weak. The same tiebreaker should apply to Nos. 5 and 6 as it should if one is 3 and one is 6.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:52 am

What if....Kansas State wins, TCU somehow loses and there really is ONE TRUE CHAMPION?

That would also mean co-9th place!

DSafetyGuy · Post by **DSafetyGuy** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:55 am

brian wrote:Like I said, I fully expect the MAC to pull the same kind of shenanigans to make sure Ohio's bowl streak continues even though 7-5 Central Michigan beat 6-6 Ohio.

This is more than offset by the fact that you cannot polish the turd that is a 37-point home loss to Syracuse.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:59 am

Brontoburglar wrote:
Shirley wrote:
brian wrote:Just to pick a nit, they didn't "finish higher in the conference standings". They have the same record in the conference.
Fair point. Same record, but Baylor gets the tie-breaker (if not officially, then most would consider it that way). But that's double-counting the head-to-head win if I also argue that as a key differentiator.

BTW, I understand their game was tight (and ridiculously high scoring), but winning still has merit. These arguments about rankings always come down to two things - how good you think a team is and how well that team did that year (wins and losses). In this case, the two teams are very close in both - computers think TCU is a bit better and Baylor finished a tie-breaker higher in the conference. Given that, the only fair thing to me is to use their head-to-head game as the tie-breaker (recognizing the double-counting I mentioned above).

And given that, FSU should absolutely be ranked ahead of either of them!
The issue becomes with this here:

The following procedure will determine the Big 12 Conference representative to the Sugar Bowl (or alternate College Football Playoff game when the Sugar Bowl is a semifinal) in the event of a first-place or alternate place tie (for the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process):

If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

Basically, the Big 12 is trying to save face here. They're more than willing to break a tie if neither TCU or Baylor is in contention for a Playoff spot, but since there's a Playoff spot on the line, they're trying to market them both as champions in case one team in the top four loses and they can get the "co-champions" in the CFP

While I understand what the Big 12 is trying to do, with the "One true champion" tagline and the fact that you have the tiebreaker prominently displayed on your website, it's transparent and weak. The same tiebreaker should apply to Nos. 5 and 6 as it should if one is 3 and one is 6.

If the Playoff had auto-bids I would completely co-sign everything here, but since they don't I can understand the argument that they're making.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:01 am

DSafetyGuy wrote:
brian wrote:Like I said, I fully expect the MAC to pull the same kind of shenanigans to make sure Ohio's bowl streak continues even though 7-5 Central Michigan beat 6-6 Ohio.
This is more than offset by the fact that you cannot polish the turd that is a 37-point home loss to Syracuse.

True. And a road loss to Kansas. In a season where they had three MAC losses those might actually be the two worst losses of the year (j/k, the home loss to Ball U was).

SportsDoc · Post by **SportsDoc** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:07 am

I think, if FSU wins and tOSU wins and Oregon wins and Bama wins, they will be the final 4. I also think FSU would most likely move up to #3.

Having said that, I can see either or both FSU and tOSU losing Saturday, which would really put things in a tizzy. I still don't think both Baylor and TCU would get in. One would, but I doubt both would. If they were to both lose (I don't think TCU can lose at home to Iowa St), that would allow the possibility of a 2 loss team who wins their conference championship to get in: Arizona, Ga Tech, Wisco, and I would give Ga Tech the edge there.

The TCU vs Baylor thingy: Baylor barely won, aided by a horrible call and the game was at Baylor. So, I don't give Baylor an edge.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:11 am

AB_skin_test wrote:
Giff wrote:If TCU was just destroying teams other than the Baylor loss, I could see it. People are pointing to Baylor barely beating Tech last week (after losing their QB to a complete cheap shot), but TCU had their struggles as well, barely beating the worst team in the conference as well as needing a last second FG to beat WVa. But I don't see how you can look at common opponents and determine that losing to Baylor and beating Minnesota is more impressive than beating the #3 team in the country. Not to mention, if this argument goes into next week, Baylor will have also beat the #9 team. To me, head to head should win out unless the other team is some sort of dominating team that is the overwhelming favorite to win it all. Better losses shouldn't trump better wins. And if Baylor wins this weekend, they have both two of those things. It's basically coming down to their win over Minnesota and their one-point win over the team Baylor lost to that they were tied with on the road going into the fourth quarter.

brian wrote:Sun Belt bowl bid announced and Texas State is left out. They basically took a 6-6 South Alabama team over 7-5 Texas State. Sorry, Giff.
This has been an awesome week for the teams I follow! SunBelt was probably pissed because the rumors about us wanting to go to Conf. USA.
So did TCU.

But TCU didn't beat the #3 team.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:14 am

SportsDoc wrote:I think, if FSU wins and tOSU wins and Oregon wins and Bama wins, they will be the final 4. I also think FSU would most likely move up to #3.

OSU is NOT in the playoff in the scenario you describe above. They're just not. That home loss to Va Tech screwed them (and rightly so). Also, the B1G was crap this year and they'll be punished for that as well.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:15 am

I mean, we're all Wisky fans here anyway, right?

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:22 am

it's absurd. Shirley and I were arguing in the other thread that FSU wouldn't be drop from the old BCS Championship game system let alone the new 4 team playoff.

and if Miss St had won on Saturday then FSU would be undefeated and 5th right now with Miss St idle this week. Isn't that ridiculous?

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:01 pm

A little dev's advo here, because it's not like I follow enough to be able to think this myself, but if FSU is unimpressive enough to make the committee think they aren't one of the 4 best teams, that's good enough for me. Wins have always been just a piece of the puzzle. Why couldn't someone watch every game and consider them just a really good Marshall? (I know they lost)

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:13 pm

Ryan wrote:A little dev's advo here, because it's not like I follow enough to be able to think this myself, but if FSU is unimpressive enough to make the committee think they aren't one of the 4 best teams, that's good enough for me. Wins have always been just a piece of the puzzle. Why couldn't someone watch every game and consider them just a really good Marshall? (I know they lost)

Right, I agree completely. It's not like the ACC is the SEC or something -- the ACC is pretty much hot garbage. I believe FSU belongs in the top 4, but it's not so inconceivable that a Big Five undefeated team might one day be left out of the playoff, depending on what else happens with the other conferences, etc.

Brontoburglar · Post by **Brontoburglar** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:16 pm

brian wrote:
Brontoburglar wrote:
Shirley wrote:
brian wrote:Just to pick a nit, they didn't "finish higher in the conference standings". They have the same record in the conference.
Fair point. Same record, but Baylor gets the tie-breaker (if not officially, then most would consider it that way). But that's double-counting the head-to-head win if I also argue that as a key differentiator.

BTW, I understand their game was tight (and ridiculously high scoring), but winning still has merit. These arguments about rankings always come down to two things - how good you think a team is and how well that team did that year (wins and losses). In this case, the two teams are very close in both - computers think TCU is a bit better and Baylor finished a tie-breaker higher in the conference. Given that, the only fair thing to me is to use their head-to-head game as the tie-breaker (recognizing the double-counting I mentioned above).

And given that, FSU should absolutely be ranked ahead of either of them!
The issue becomes with this here:

The following procedure will determine the Big 12 Conference representative to the Sugar Bowl (or alternate College Football Playoff game when the Sugar Bowl is a semifinal) in the event of a first-place or alternate place tie (for the avoidance of doubt, only Conference records will be used throughout the process):

If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

Basically, the Big 12 is trying to save face here. They're more than willing to break a tie if neither TCU or Baylor is in contention for a Playoff spot, but since there's a Playoff spot on the line, they're trying to market them both as champions in case one team in the top four loses and they can get the "co-champions" in the CFP

While I understand what the Big 12 is trying to do, with the "One true champion" tagline and the fact that you have the tiebreaker prominently displayed on your website, it's transparent and weak. The same tiebreaker should apply to Nos. 5 and 6 as it should if one is 3 and one is 6.
If the Playoff had auto-bids I would completely co-sign everything here, but since they don't I can understand the argument that they're making.

Oh, I get it too -- as I said. But when you have the tiebreaker for the other bowls out there so prominently, you look like you have a double-standard. It's self-preservation. But man, it looks weird.

Post by **brian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:22 pm

To be somewhat fair to Florida State, they had a really good non-conference schedule lined up that went to shit. Oklahoma St., Notre Dame and Florida most years is going to be among the top 5 toughest non-conference schedules in the country. FSU's best win of the season at this point is probably Louisville on the road in a game they struggled mightily in for a half and change.

You can't control your conference sucking and can't control what should be a tough non-conference schedule that goes sideways, so they've done what they needed to do, but you can't blame anyone for watching them struggle against shitty teams like Boston College and North Carolina State and being skeptical that they're not going to get killed by Oregon or Alabama or any of the other top teams in the country this year. I'd probably bet on Michigan State against Florida State on a neutral field at this point.

degenerasian · Post by **degenerasian** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:27 pm

brian wrote:To be somewhat fair to Florida State, they had a really good non-conference schedule lined up that went to shit. Oklahoma St., Notre Dame and Florida most years is going to be among the top 5 toughest non-conference schedules in the country. FSU's best win of the season at this point is probably Louisville on the road in a game they struggled mightily in for a half and change.

You can't control your conference sucking and can't control what should be a tough non-conference schedule that goes sideways, so they've done what they needed to do, but you can't blame anyone for watching them struggle against shitty teams like Boston College and North Carolina State and being skeptical that they're not going to get killed by Oregon or Alabama or any of the other top teams in the country this year. I'd probably bet on Michigan State against Florida State on a neutral field at this point.

BCS would have FSU 2 acccording to these guys:
https://twitter.com/BCSKnowHow" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You beat me to it. I was just going to say that FSU's schedule stands up to any of the other top 4s. I think statistically it's the 2nd toughest out of the contenders.

Giff · Post by **Giff** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:49 pm

brian wrote:
SportsDoc wrote:I think, if FSU wins and tOSU wins and Oregon wins and Bama wins, they will be the final 4. I also think FSU would most likely move up to #3.
OSU is NOT in the playoff in the scenario you describe above. They're just not. That home loss to Va Tech screwed them (and rightly so). Also, the B1G was crap this year and they'll be punished for that as well.

Except for Minnesota! That apparently is a HUGE win according to the committee.

A_B · Post by **A_B** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:56 pm

It's better than beating Northwestern State.

Keg · Post by **Keg** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:03 pm

Is #7 Arizona in if they beat #2 Oregon?

Post by **Shirley** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:03 pm

brian wrote:
Ryan wrote:A little dev's advo here, because it's not like I follow enough to be able to think this myself, but if FSU is unimpressive enough to make the committee think they aren't one of the 4 best teams, that's good enough for me. Wins have always been just a piece of the puzzle. Why couldn't someone watch every game and consider them just a really good Marshall? (I know they lost)
Right, I agree completely. It's not like the ACC is the SEC or something -- the ACC is pretty much hot garbage. I believe FSU belongs in the top 4, but it's not so inconceivable that a Big Five undefeated team might one day be left out of the playoff, depending on what else happens with the other conferences, etc.

FWIW, the ACC went 4-0 against the SEC last weekend.

SportsDoc · Post by **SportsDoc** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:04 pm

brian wrote:
SportsDoc wrote:I think, if FSU wins and tOSU wins and Oregon wins and Bama wins, they will be the final 4. I also think FSU would most likely move up to #3.
OSU is NOT in the playoff in the scenario you describe above. They're just not. That home loss to Va Tech screwed them (and rightly so). Also, the B1G was crap this year and they'll be punished for that as well.

Well the Big 12 loses points for not having a Championship Game this week (because the Big 12 only has 10 teams). TCU isn't going to get any bonus points for beating Iowa St at home ( a team that lost at home to North Dakota St). Baylor is at home against K-State, a decent but not great team. Not a lot to gain there. Would actually help Baylor if this was a road game. If tOSU beats a good, not great Wisconsin team on a neutral field in a Championship Game (because the Big 10 has 12 teams) with their 3rd string QB in his first game, I'd bet they get bumped up to #4.

I've been wrong before.