The Swamp

Special Notice

Today's outrage will be preempted by Pedro Martinez appreciation. Take your negativity elsewhere.

I've already used twitter more today than I have in the past six months combined probably.

So should rush turn off the MaxWebster signal or keep it on?

If Pedro is elected in, he'll be the first player born in the 70's to get in.

Was just in the process of starting this thread in case someone else didn't.

Compilation of data from voters who made their ballots public has Big Unit, Pedro, Smoltz, Biggio, and Piazza getting in, though these tend to skew higher than voters who keep theirs private.

Joe Posnanski's explanation of his ballot that almost perfectly aligns with my hypothetical one, both in choices and reasoning.

Election announcement at 2 p.m. ET today.

rass wrote:So should rush turn off the MaxWebster signal or keep it on?

Full blast, like a Lee Smith fastball going right by a skinny Gary Sheffield

This is frivolous, but Gary Sheffield went .290/.470/.629 against Tom Glavine in 83 PA. Holy shit.

That Joe Poe piece is outstanding.

John Smoltz isn't in the top 10 of players on this ballot and he's going to be one who gets in.

mister d wrote:John Smoltz isn't in the top 10 of players on this ballot and he's going to be one who gets in.

I would agree with that

Edit: I guess I wouldn't. I put him above Mussina for the last spot.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Troy Percival

I think the entire world severely underrates Mussina playing his entire career in the AL (East).

I can't even figure out how I'd set up a hypothetical ballot. I'd leave off Clemens and Bonds because they'll easily get 5% but not have a shot. I'd leave off Pedro, Smoltz and RJ because they're in without needing it. I still have 11 ...

Mark McGwire
Larry Walker
Curt Schilling
Jeff Bagwell
Mike Piazza
Mike Mussina
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Tim Raines
Gary Sheffield
Craig Biggio

I don't get why Biggio polling so high relative to the other candidates. He played for about a half-dozen years past the point where he was an above-average player, but it helped him hit counting stats HOF voters love, so I guess it worked. I still think he should be in, just that a good number of other eligible guys are more deserving.

Re: Mussina, I think he should be in too. Not that it should count, but he's probably hampered by being more devoid of personality than any prominent sports figure I can remember in my lifetime.

mister d wrote:I can't even figure out how I'd set up a hypothetical ballot. I'd leave off Clemens and Bonds because they'll easily get 5% but not have a shot. I'd leave off Pedro, Smoltz and RJ because they're in without needing it. I still have 11 ...

Is this the reason why nobody gets unanimous? There must be writers who think the same.

On my ballot I would add those 3 and take off McGwire, Walker, Martinez and Sheffield.

degenerasian wrote:Is this the reason why nobody gets unanimous? There must be writers who think the same.

It's the new, secondary reason

Nah, pretty sure the "more than 10 deserving" backlog never happened before the PED insanity.

What would really happen is I'd end up convinced Biggio is safe, drop him, he'd miss by a vote and my life would be ruined forever.

It's definitely a reason though

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Pitchers faced in career ...

Smoltz: 928 (7.0%)
Schilling: 672 (5.3%)
Mussina: 45 (0.3%)

mister d wrote:I think the entire world severely underrates Mussina playing his entire career in the AL (East).

One of my happiest moments as a Red Sox fan was when Carl Everett broke up that piece of shit's perfect game.

Well that's a first.

Johnny Carwash wrote:I don't get why Biggio polling so high relative to the other candidates.

Grit! He was Eckstine before Eckstine.

sancarlos wrote:

Johnny Carwash wrote:I don't get why Biggio polling so high relative to the other candidates.

Grit! He was Eckstine before Eckstine.

Sigh...

He ran up a hill for Christ's sake!!

Giff wrote:

sancarlos wrote:

Johnny Carwash wrote:I don't get why Biggio polling so high relative to the other candidates.

Grit! He was Eckstine before Eckstine.

Sigh...

A more talented, more productive version, I'll grant you, Giff. Didn't mean to dog your boy.

sancarlos wrote:

Giff wrote:

sancarlos wrote:

Johnny Carwash wrote:I don't get why Biggio polling so high relative to the other candidates.

Grit! He was Eckstine before Eckstine.

Sigh...

A more talented, more productive version, I'll grant you, Giff. Didn't mean to dog your boy.

I'm actually just taking out my frustrations due to my favorite Astro (Bagwell) not getting in again today for absurd reasoning. There is no way he's not a HoFer if Frank Thomas is.

I've come around a lot on Biggio overall but he's pretty borderline given the competition and limit. Not that he shouldn't be in, but he ranks in the 9-12 range on this ballot for me.

Biggio in. Smoltz In.

two more.

Pedro in. Randy Johnson in.

Piazza 69%
Bagwell 55%
Raines 55%
Schilling 39%
Clemens 38%
Bonds 37%
L. Smith 30%
E. Martinez 27%
Trammell 25%
Mussina 25%

Two positives: Raines gains 9% and no one of merit falls off the ballot.

AB_skin_test wrote:Pedro in. Randy Johnson in.

Now if they only go in as Expos all will be right.

Howard, I'm probably going to need you for an elective (pun) sedation for this time next year when Trevor Fucking Hoffman goes first ballot.

So, looking ahead to next year, the only legit new candidate is Griffey (unless you're a big Jim Edmonds fan). Piazza probably gets in as well, but beyond that, not sure if anyone else makes it. Good to see Raines get a bump, but not sure if he can clear another 20% in his two years left.

Johnny Carwash wrote:So, looking ahead to next year, the only legit new candidate is Griffey (unless you're a big Jim Edmonds fan). Piazza probably gets in as well, but beyond that, not sure if anyone else makes it. Good to see Raines get a bump, but not sure if he can clear another 20% in his two years left.

I bet Raines makes a HUGE jump next year.

Glad to see Bonds and Clemens moving in the right direction. I bet they get decent bumps next year. Writers are going to end up punishing them for their Use but will eventually let them in in the last year probably.

Johnny Carwash wrote:Good to see Raines get a bump ...

OH GOD GET THE FUCK OVER ... oh, you mean in his vote percentage. Yes. Yes it is good, although he'll still likely get chopped by a combination of the shorter ballot tenure and a lot of Morris voters taking that near miss out on Raines.

Johnny Carwash wrote:Good to see Raines get a bump, but not sure if he can clear another 20% in his two years left.

He'd have to duplicate this year's massive improvement two more times, plus get some extra help (from new voters?). I don't see it, but maybe the slightly slimmer ballot will be the difference.

I do think that a weak* ballot can really help. Bert Blyleven gained 20+% during a three-year stretch where only 4 guys got in.

*Not that the current ballot should be considered "weak" by any means, but based on recent voting there should only be a few guys in Raines's way next year.

mister d wrote:a lot of Morris voters taking that near miss out on Raines.

Had thought something along these lines as well. It seems like there's a mini-backlash against Raines stemming from resentment at the growing influence of the younger, sabermetrically-oriented crowd. Reactionary old fucks saying "Shut up about Tim Raines, nerds! I know a Hall of Famer when I see one!" (votes for Paul O'Neill).

Trammell should have hung around for three extra years past his prime to pad his counting stats. Dumb.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I think there's really only 6 CFs in history undoubtedly better than Edmonds: Mays, Cobb/Mantle, Di Maggio, Griffey, and Speaker. I'd think he's close to a 1st ballot guy myself.